How likely do you think it is...

[ShadowRocket]

That Joe Lieberman and/or Ben Nelson will switch parties following the midterms. I've seen it brought up before, but does anyone think either one will do it? I could see Lieberman doing it, especially if he feels like his chairmanship is threatend and as a final 'f*** you' to the Democrats. I'm not sure about Nelson. I guess it depends on how sour his grapes are over the health care bill.

[Bo]

Lieberman is certainly possible, considering that he will probably get primaried in 2012 if he remained a Democrat. He really screwed himself by vocally attacking Obama in 2008 and by opposing a public option.  I doubt Nelson would do it since he'd probably get Teabagged out of office just like Parker Griffith was. Besides, Nelson might want a lobbying job after 2012 and the best way to do that would be to maintain good relations with your party.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Lieberman wouldn't really surprise me. Ben Nelson would surprise me.

[bgwah]

Nelson-No
Lieberman-Maybe

[Skill and Chance]

Nelson is quite unlikely to switch.  He is probably going to retire in 2012 anyway and doesn't seem overly concerned about his re-election prospects.  Lieberman could very easily switch, however.  If the Senate gets to exactly 50-50 after the elections, expect him to play both sides against each other to see where he can get the better deal.  Also, watch Snowe closely.  If the Republicans win control by exactly 51-49, I could see here defecting and throwing the Senate back to the D's.  She will be under constant threat of a Tea Party primary in 2012, especially if LePage wins the ME governor's race this fall. 

[Eraserhead]

Nelson - Doubtful but not impossible
Lieberman - Strong possibility

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nelson has said he plans on running again in 2012, and I can't see any way he wins, regardless of what party he's in.

Lieberman prefers being the thumb in the Democrats' eye; he'll probably stay an independent and run again as one.

[Ronnie]

Nelson is quite unlikely to switch.  He is probably going to retire in 2012 anyway and doesn't seem overly concerned about his re-election prospects.  Lieberman could very easily switch, however.  If the Senate gets to exactly 50-50 after the elections, expect him to play both sides against each other to see where he can get the better deal.  Also, watch Snowe closely.  If the Republicans win control by exactly 51-49, I could see here defecting and throwing the Senate back to the D's.  She will be under constant threat of a Tea Party primary in 2012, especially if LePage wins the ME governor's race this fall. 

I don't believe Snowe will do such a thing because she has been very closely tied with the ME GOP.  However, politicians do surprising things when their careers are in danger.  We'll see.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP just polled Snowe's approvals... she has higher ratings from Democrats (59/29) than Republicans (40/51). They'll have numbers from a theoretical primary challenge on Monday.

[Niemeyerite]

Snowe and Collins won't survive as republicans if that ridicolous teabaggers are still alive by 2012 and 2014.

[Torie]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

[Torie]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

I am going to go out on a limb, and predict he will bail irrespective, assume he has a large enough moderate GOP Senate cohort to commune with.

[Brittain33]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

I am going to go out on a limb, and predict he will bail irrespective, assume he has a large enough moderate GOP Senate cohort to commune with.

Assuming Dems are in the majority either way, he'd have far more influence on committees as a member of the majority who constantly threatens to vote with the minority, than as a member of the minority. Especially if they end up giving Dems a one seat margin on committees.

[Torie]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

I am going to go out on a limb, and predict he will bail irrespective, assume he has a large enough moderate GOP Senate cohort to commune with.

Surely you agree, that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no?  But with a resurgent GOP in New England, he just might.

Assuming Dems are in the majority either way, he'd have far more influence on committees as a member of the majority who constantly threatens to vote with the minority, than as a member of the minority. Especially if they end up giving Dems a one seat margin on committees.

I don't think Joe is that worried about being in the majority per se, and after November, who has the technical majority in the Senate won't matter much anyway. No, I can't prove any of this. It is just a gut feeling. And surely you agree that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no? But with a resurgent New England GOP, he just might.

And write this down: Joe will endorse McMahon, if he feels he can push her over the top, as a lagniappe for his switch.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

I am going to go out on a limb, and predict he will bail irrespective, assume he has a large enough moderate GOP Senate cohort to commune with.

Surely you agree, that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no?  But with a resurgent GOP in New England, he just might.

Assuming Dems are in the majority either way, he'd have far more influence on committees as a member of the majority who constantly threatens to vote with the minority, than as a member of the minority. Especially if they end up giving Dems a one seat margin on committees.

I don't think Joe is that worried about being in the majority per se, and after November, who has the technical majority in the Senate won't matter much anyway. No, I can't prove any of this. It is just a gut feeling. And surely you agree that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no? But with a resurgent New England GOP, he just might.

Even with a "resurgent New England GOP"(which I don't totally buy as something that will happen) he's still DOA in 2012 so all he'd be doing would be a final poke in the eye to his party, it's not like it would help him win.

[Mr.Phips]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

I am going to go out on a limb, and predict he will bail irrespective, assume he has a large enough moderate GOP Senate cohort to commune with.

Surely you agree, that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no?  But with a resurgent GOP in New England, he just might.

Assuming Dems are in the majority either way, he'd have far more influence on committees as a member of the majority who constantly threatens to vote with the minority, than as a member of the minority. Especially if they end up giving Dems a one seat margin on committees.

I don't think Joe is that worried about being in the majority per se, and after November, who has the technical majority in the Senate won't matter much anyway. No, I can't prove any of this. It is just a gut feeling. And surely you agree that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no? But with a resurgent New England GOP, he just might.

This "resurgent GOP" meme is going to last for one election cycle and then die as soon as 2012 comes around.

[J. J.]

If the GOP gets 51 on Election Day, they could end up with 53, either effectively, or in actuality.


Lieberman might retire or he might realize that he can't win a Democratic Primary and take his chances.  Or, at 70, he may retire.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

something I don't get: why do people say Lieberman might 'switch' because he can't win a Dem primary. That already happened. He switch from Dem to Indy because he lost the primary, and he won as an Indy. He's going to stay an indy. He'd have no chance to win in either a Dem or Rep primary after he angered both sides on healthcare. 

[tmthforu94]

If the GOP gets 51 on Election Day, they could end up with 53, either effectively, or in actuality.


Lieberman might retire or he might realize that he can't win a Democratic Primary and take his chances.  Or, at 70, he may retire.

I could see Lieberman switching Republican then retiring, with hopes on a Republican administration in 2013 and a cabinet appointment. Nelson will stay in the Democratic party because he's not hated there and has a better chance getting a post-Senate job there than in the Republican party.

[rbt48]

Nelson would never switch.  He has helped to build the Democratic party in Nebraska his entire adult life. 

Side note:  As governor, he signed the law that awarded the state's electoral votes by CD.

[Smash255]

something I don't get: why do people say Lieberman might 'switch' because he can't win a Dem primary. That already happened. He switch from Dem to Indy because he lost the primary, and he won as an Indy. He's going to stay an indy. He'd have no chance to win in either a Dem or Rep primary after he angered both sides on healthcare. 

Well that depends on what the Republicans do.  If the GOP nominates anyone that is even remotely more serious of a candidate than Schelsinger then it complicates things a bit more for Lieberman as an Indy.  Keep in mind the main reason why Lieberman came out on top in the General is because the GOP basically did not even have a candidate.

[Mr.Phips]

something I don't get: why do people say Lieberman might 'switch' because he can't win a Dem primary. That already happened. He switch from Dem to Indy because he lost the primary, and he won as an Indy. He's going to stay an indy. He'd have no chance to win in either a Dem or Rep primary after he angered both sides on healthcare. 

Well that depends on what the Republicans do.  If the GOP nominates anyone that is even remotely more serious of a candidate than Schelsinger then it complicates things a bit more for Lieberman as an Indy.  Keep in mind the main reason why Lieberman came out on top in the General is because the GOP basically did not even have a candidate.

What serious candidates do Republicans have in Connecticut?  I doubt Rell wants to return to politics. Maybe Rob Simmons would give it another run?

[Smash255]

something I don't get: why do people say Lieberman might 'switch' because he can't win a Dem primary. That already happened. He switch from Dem to Indy because he lost the primary, and he won as an Indy. He's going to stay an indy. He'd have no chance to win in either a Dem or Rep primary after he angered both sides on healthcare. 

Well that depends on what the Republicans do.  If the GOP nominates anyone that is even remotely more serious of a candidate than Schelsinger then it complicates things a bit more for Lieberman as an Indy.  Keep in mind the main reason why Lieberman came out on top in the General is because the GOP basically did not even have a candidate.

What serious candidates do Republicans have in Connecticut?  I doubt Rell wants to return to politics. Maybe Rob Simmons would give it another run?

I didn't say they needed to have a serious candidate.  I said more serious than Schelsinger a dirty sock would meet that criteria