Is Washington trending Republican?

[ajc0918]

Now, with more suburban voters returning the the GOP, is it possible that in 2012 a republican would win Washington? With a candidate like Scott Brown, or a moderate republican(obviously not Palin, Huck or a ultra conservative)but I think it's possible...then again what do I know?

I understand Washinton is polarized and has close races, but if Rossi wins, and Herrera and Koster win, I think it might be showing republicans are nominating good candidates and people are starting to like them. Reichert seems to be fitting well with his constituents.

What do you think?

[Alcon]

If the Republican candidate in 2012 does relatively well among more secular, educated suburbanites, he stands a chance in WA.  Do I think that Washington is "trending" Republican in any long-term way?  I don't see any evidence of that.  Even with its hard Republican year of 1994, there wasn't really any trend.  Two years later, it barely trended Republican, and wouldn't have if not for Clinton's performance in the Northeast.

I wouldn't make any long-term inferences yet.

[phk]

If the Republican candidate in 2012 does relatively well among more secular, educated suburbanites, he stands a chance in WA.  Do I think that Washington is "trending" Republican in any long-term way?  I don't see any evidence of that.  Even with its hard Republican year of 1994, there wasn't really any trend.  Two years later, it barely trended Republican, and wouldn't have if not for Clinton's performance in the Northeast.

I wouldn't make any long-term inferences yet.

Explain?

[bgwah]

The GOP will already have won a huge landslide if they win Washington.

[Alcon]

If the Republican candidate in 2012 does relatively well among more secular, educated suburbanites, he stands a chance in WA.  Do I think that Washington is "trending" Republican in any long-term way?  I don't see any evidence of that.  Even with its hard Republican year of 1994, there wasn't really any trend.  Two years later, it barely trended Republican, and wouldn't have if not for Clinton's performance in the Northeast.

I wouldn't make any long-term inferences yet.

Explain?

I think the 1996 trend map explains it fine ..

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

No, if anything it is trending Democratic.

[redcommander]

Maybe if Republicans nominate someone like Romney or Gregg who doesn't take public finances for their presidential campaign. That would allow them to put money into the state, but unless Obama's approvals are still in the toilet on election day, they won't have a great chance of winning it.

[Yelnoc]

If in 2016/2020 the Republicans nominate a Black guy and the Democrats a white guy then maybe.

[auburntiger]

I'd say Washington has the same chance of going Republican as say California or Connecticut, which means only in a major landslide. It would be very difficult to win.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Maybe if Republicans nominate someone like Romney or Gregg who doesn't take public finances for their presidential campaign. That would allow them to put money into the state, but unless Obama's approvals are still in the toilet on election day, they won't have a great chance of winning it.

Not even.  Even if his approval ratings were what they are today, he would still win handily.  Look at Kerry, not a whole lot of people liked Kerry, but they voted for him because they hated Bush.  I think the margin would be even greater in 2012 that it was in 2004, just because so many of the GOP's bullpen has embraced the hard-right tea party (and Obama has a much stronger image than Kerry). 

[Verily]

Washington is becoming more polarized geographically and ideologically. Ultimately, this favors the Democrats as they control the more populous area, but it probably means that the sorts of landslides that were possible in the state a decade or two ago (for either party) can't happen any more.

[phk]

If the Republican candidate in 2012 does relatively well among more secular, educated suburbanites, he stands a chance in WA.  Do I think that Washington is "trending" Republican in any long-term way?  I don't see any evidence of that.  Even with its hard Republican year of 1994, there wasn't really any trend.  Two years later, it barely trended Republican, and wouldn't have if not for Clinton's performance in the Northeast.

I wouldn't make any long-term inferences yet.

Explain?

I think the 1996 trend map explains it fine ..

Northeast seems to be a strong D trend in 1996..... How is Washington correlated with the NE?

[tpfkaw]

Northeast seems to be a strong D trend in 1996..... How is Washington correlated with the NE?

Trends are zero-sum, so a stronger trend in one state will cause the trend to swing in the opposite direction of every other state.

[Alcon]

Yeah, thanks wormyguy, that's what I meant. Washington's extreme Republican swing in 1994 didn't really end up having much to do with 1996 at all.  Outside of the Northeast, it was probably in the top most Dem-trending quartile.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2000 : trended Dem
2004 : trended Dem
2008 : trended Dem

Is Washington trending Republican ? No.
Could it trend republican in next cycles ? Maybe, like 49 other States.

[Free Palestine]

If in 2016/2020 the Republicans nominate a Black guy and the Democrats a white guy then maybe.

Yeah, because there are a lot of black people in Washington.

[Yelnoc]

If in 2016/2020 the Republicans nominate a Black guy and the Democrats a white guy then maybe.

Yeah, because there are a lot of black people in Washington.

As of 2007 the break down was

White- 36.3%
Black- 55.6%
Asian- 3.1%
Native American- 0.2%
Other- 4.8%
Hispanic (of any race)- 8.3%

As you can see, the majority of Washington D.C residents are black.  Obviously, it isn't just the black people that vote Democratic, the suburbs of the nations capital tend to be very liberal.  However, race politics tend to be more important amongst African Americans then the various white ethnicities, as can be demostrated by Obama's lock on the African American vote, seen in the flipping of North Carolina in 2008.  Thus, if a sufficiently moderate African American can be found by the Republic Party (i.e. Colin Powell) and his opponent was a white Democrat, then in this situation I could plausibly see Washington D.C going for the GOP.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

If in 2016/2020 the Republicans nominate a Black guy and the Democrats a white guy then maybe.

Yeah, because there are a lot of black people in Washington.

As of 2007 the break down was

White- 36.3%
Black- 55.6%
Asian- 3.1%
Native American- 0.2%
Other- 4.8%
Hispanic (of any race)- 8.3%

As you can see, the majority of Washington D.C residents are black.  Obviously, it isn't just the black people that vote Democratic, the suburbs of the nations capital tend to be very liberal.  However, race politics tend to be more important amongst African Americans then the various white ethnicities, as can be demostrated by Obama's lock on the African American vote, seen in the flipping of North Carolina in 2008.  Thus, if a sufficiently moderate African American can be found by the Republic Party (i.e. Colin Powell) and his opponent was a white Democrat, then in this situation I could plausibly see Washington D.C going for the GOP.

This is about the state of Washington, which is over 80% white and only about 4% black.

[ottermax]

I think it is interesting that people from outside the state seem to think that Washington is becoming more Republican this election. Yes, the polls show Rossi leading Murray, and low approval ratings for Obama, but in the end I don't see how the Republicans can be gaining more support here without this national shift.

Over the past decade most of the growth in Washington has been in the suburbs of Seattle and they have not been gaining Republicans. Most of the people coming into this state already are Democrats and the problem I think is that these voters tend to only vote in major elections. Thus when we have an apathetic election cycle like 2010, the traditional voters go out to vote leading to results that are much more even. I'm guessing that the outcome this election will totally depend on turnout, because as mentioned before political polarization is rather strong in this state.

Obama was well-suited to turn out the large bloc of apathetic voters in 2008, but these voters also could care less about the Senate race. Nevertheless political dynamics are complicated here and it's hard to assume anything.

Oh, and Reichert is only popular by some of his constituents. Living in the 8th district where these apathetic voters all seem to live, people have never really been excited by any of the Democratic candidates, and even in my opinion Reichert is a decent guy. Still this district is one of the most liberal ones represented by a Republican, and once redistricting occurs, Reichert will either retain a much safer seat or have a much more difficult challenge.

[feeblepizza]

I agree with Antonio. Nobody knows which states will vote for who. We'll just find out on November 6 of 2012.

[bgwah]

I think it is interesting that people from outside the state seem to think that Washington is becoming more Republican this election. Yes, the polls show Rossi leading Murray, and low approval ratings for Obama, but in the end I don't see how the Republicans can be gaining more support here without this national shift.

Over the past decade most of the growth in Washington has been in the suburbs of Seattle and they have not been gaining Republicans. Most of the people coming into this state already are Democrats and the problem I think is that these voters tend to only vote in major elections. Thus when we have an apathetic election cycle like 2010, the traditional voters go out to vote leading to results that are much more even. I'm guessing that the outcome this election will totally depend on turnout, because as mentioned before political polarization is rather strong in this state.

Obama was well-suited to turn out the large bloc of apathetic voters in 2008, but these voters also could care less about the Senate race. Nevertheless political dynamics are complicated here and it's hard to assume anything.

Oh, and Reichert is only popular by some of his constituents. Living in the 8th district where these apathetic voters all seem to live, people have never really been excited by any of the Democratic candidates, and even in my opinion Reichert is a decent guy. Still this district is one of the most liberal ones represented by a Republican, and once redistricting occurs, Reichert will either retain a much safer seat or have a much more difficult challenge.

The Eastside has certainly gotten more Democratic. Republicans "won" the primary 50-48 or so, and considering that their numbers in certain suburbs were much lower than they would've been in the past. Compare it to the 2004 election, which was basically a tie---Sammamish fell from >60% R to 55 or so, Bellevue went from voting Rossi to voting Democrat by 7 or 8 points, Redmond and Kirkland weren't even close, Issaquah actually voted Democrat, Mercer Island and Carnation were close to 60% D...

... but of course, these improvements for the Democratic Party are countered by Republicans gains elsewhere. The Democratic Party is basically extinct in rural Eastern Washington, they're struggling in places like Longview that they've traditionally dominated, and I would have to disagree that all the suburbs are trending D---Suburban Pierce County is trending R.

[Yelnoc]

If in 2016/2020 the Republicans nominate a Black guy and the Democrats a white guy then maybe.

Yeah, because there are a lot of black people in Washington.

As of 2007 the break down was

White- 36.3%
Black- 55.6%
Asian- 3.1%
Native American- 0.2%
Other- 4.8%
Hispanic (of any race)- 8.3%

As you can see, the majority of Washington D.C residents are black.  Obviously, it isn't just the black people that vote Democratic, the suburbs of the nations capital tend to be very liberal.  However, race politics tend to be more important amongst African Americans then the various white ethnicities, as can be demostrated by Obama's lock on the African American vote, seen in the flipping of North Carolina in 2008.  Thus, if a sufficiently moderate African American can be found by the Republic Party (i.e. Colin Powell) and his opponent was a white Democrat, then in this situation I could plausibly see Washington D.C going for the GOP.

This is about the state of Washington, which is over 80% white and only about 4% black.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trending is not a healthy word, people!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Trending is not a healthy word, people!

Well at least with presidential elections it isn't.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

The Eastside has certainly gotten more Democratic. Republicans "won" the primary 50-48 or so, and considering that their numbers in certain suburbs were much lower than they would've been in the past. Compare it to the 2004 election, which was basically a tie---Sammamish fell from >60% R to 55 or so, Bellevue went from voting Rossi to voting Democrat by 7 or 8 points, Redmond and Kirkland weren't even close, Issaquah actually voted Democrat, Mercer Island and Carnation were close to 60% D...

... but of course, these improvements for the Democratic Party are countered by Republicans gains elsewhere. The Democratic Party is basically extinct in rural Eastern Washington, they're struggling in places like Longview that they've traditionally dominated, and I would have to disagree that all the suburbs are trending D---Suburban Pierce County is trending R.

I agree; there has been a sea change in the Seattle Eastside compared to just a decade ago.  Other historically Republican areas on the Westside, such as Skagit and Island Cos, have definitely trended Dem over the same period.  To the extent that the fastest growing areas of the state are in heavily Republican areas such as the Vancouver suburbs and the Tri-Cities serve to moderate some of those gains.  I don't think Washington State is trending one way or other (such as TN or WV) but it has certainly become more polarized.