Venezuelan 2010 Election

[redcommander]

I noticed there wasn't a thread for this yet. There are elections for the National Assembly at the end of this month. The opposition is expected to pick up seats (not much of a surprise considering most parties didn't compete in 2005), and Chavez could actually be facing the possibility of an opposition controlled congress if the discontent with his administration transpires into votes against him. What are everyone's feelings about the election?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

[Hatman 🍁]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

[Beet]

Don't know enough about Venezuelan politics, but I do know that up to now at least, Venezuela is the only country in the world consistently ranked higher than Greece as a sovereign default probability, according to CMA Datavision (see my sig). If inflation is as out of control as some claim and a recession as bad a some claim, my instinct would be that Chavez is finally invincible no more.

[Dan the Roman]

Don't know enough about Venezuelan politics, but I do know that up to now at least, Venezuela is the only country in the world consistently ranked higher than Greece as a sovereign default probability, according to CMA Datavision (see my sig). If inflation is as out of control as some claim and a recession as bad a some claim, my instinct would be that Chavez is finally invincible no more.

His loss in the 2007 referendum would lead to that conclusion. The raw vote totals for the 2009 vote would then lead to the conclusion that it may not matter.

[ag]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

None whatsoever. It won't be. But neither it is going to be a Russian election. And there is a real opposition there. So, opposition should, at least, get represented now, even if it would take it a lot more than 50% of the real vote to win. They might even get a sufficiently large minority that would block at least some action in the legislature. And, furthermore, I don't think the revolt threshold is really that high: if it gets too blatant, you'd get a caracazo. And if you get a caracazo, it's not clear what the army will do, even with all the personnel changes Chavez has made.

[ag]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

[Хahar 🤔]

Where do the sympathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

[Dan the Roman]

Where do the sypathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

The army has been thoroughly purged, but as Allende proved, no matter who you put in charge, political pressure tends to drive it in the same direction. The Army will back Chavez as long as it is expedient to do so, and probably not a lot longer.

The real battle here will be post election. The opposition will do well, perhaps get over 50%, but not win a majority of seats. They will cry fraud, Chavez will call them spies and traitors, they will go out into the streets, and riots will break out. After that who knows? Obama doesn't seem to care though.

[Hatman 🍁]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

So, a lot like the American system then?

[WMS]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

So, a lot like the American system then?

You cannot be that naive. Or are you too busy being an apologetic for the Chavistas?

[ag]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

So, a lot like the American system then?

Surely, you are not serious. No, it's not at all like the American system.

[ag]

Where do the sypathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

When he lost the referendum, he was, apparently, forced to recognize the loss, because he couldn't be certain of the army support. He's purged it since.  But whether they remain reliable in case of a caracazo, I don't know.

[ag]

Where do the sypathies of the army lie? Chávez was of course an officer, but did the army support him in his coup attempt? Where did the army stand during the attempted coup against Chávez?

The army has been thoroughly purged, but as Allende proved, no matter who you put in charge, political pressure tends to drive it in the same direction. The Army will back Chavez as long as it is expedient to do so, and probably not a lot longer.

The real battle here will be post election. The opposition will do well, perhaps get over 50%, but not win a majority of seats. They will cry fraud, Chavez will call them spies and traitors, they will go out into the streets, and riots will break out. After that who knows? Obama doesn't seem to care though.

If they get 40% of the seats, I'd think the opposition will be content enough so that nothing spills into the streets.  If things get blatant, though - that's another matter.

The best way the US administration could support Chavez right now would be to start making pro-opposition noises. As long as it's home-grown, the opposition is credible - if you want to discredit it, make sure they are seen as US puppets. There is really nothing that can be done today from the outside. Just make sure that Chavez knows he can't lash out at neighbors to maintain his popularity. Other than that, it's the Venezuelan thing, and Venezuelans will have to get rid of the SOB themselves. It's only after it happens that US will have a major role to play.

[Hatman 🍁]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

So, a lot like the American system then?

You cannot be that naive. Or are you too busy being an apologetic for the Chavistas?

I should have added a winky face, but it was more a criticism of American elections more than anything.

[redcommander]

Here are some predictions I found. I do think the opposition has a decent shot of actually defeating Chavez for the first time in an election since 07.

Aragua and Carabobo http://www.globalpost.com/webblog/venezuela/the-2010-election-predictions-aragua-and-carabobo

Oriente http://www.globalpost.com/webblog/venezuela/the-2010-election-predictions-oriente

Llanos http://www.globalpost.com/webblog/venezuela/the-2010-election-predictions-llanos

Zulia http://www.globalpost.com/webblog/venezuela/the-2010-election-predictions-zulia

Caracas Metro http://www.globalpost.com/webblog/venezuela/the-2010-election-preditions-caracas-metro-area

[WMS]

how much assurance is there these elections will be anywhere close to open, fair and honest?

As authoritarian as Venezuela is, it's still not a dictatorship. I think the biggest worry is state controlled media and whatnot. Then again, I'm not Latin American expert.

It's not just the media. Nor even just the fact that it is really a one-industry economy, and that industry (oil) is in the hands of the government, and that the government is not at all shy about pressing its employees. It is also the case that the government is in control of the electoral commission and the electoral registry. So, it won't be a fair election. But neither it is going to be an "electoral-type event", Russian style: however imperfect it is, the official results should depend on the actual votes cast. There are really things at stake here, and it will, indeed, be interesting.

So, a lot like the American system then?

You cannot be that naive. Or are you too busy being an apologetic for the Chavistas?

I should have added a winky face, but it was more a criticism of American elections more than anything.

Indeed you should have!

Hey, you're talking to someone who favors a mix of IRV-MMD districts with PR districts (more slanted towards the IRV-MMD districts though) and who is rather critical of the existing U.S. political system for being, as Al has pointed out, run by two politicized wings of the state (unless I'm getting what Al said wrong, if so, my apologies ). That doesn't mean I won't criticize the failings of other countries, though.

[Хahar 🤔]

By multi-member IRV, you mean STV, or the system that was briefly used for Australian Senate elections?

[WMS]

By multi-member IRV, you mean STV, or the system that was briefly used for Australian Senate elections?

I meant sets of multi-member districts, but with STV (I"ll use that term instead of IRV) used in the voting. I really dislike closed party-lists.

[redcommander]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

[Tender Branson]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

[minionofmidas]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

70 sounds unlikely.

[Хahar 🤔]

By multi-member IRV, you mean STV, or the system that was briefly used for Australian Senate elections?

I meant sets of multi-member districts, but with STV (I"ll use that term instead of IRV) used in the voting. I really dislike closed party-lists.

Well, STV is just IRV applied to multi-member districts.

Agreed on closed lists.

[redcommander]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

He isn't getting 70%. Look at the polls.

[ag]

No one is paying attention to this? The vote is on sunday and could be very close.

No, Chavez's party will "win" with about 70% of the vote/seats ...

There was a poll mentioned in a Mexican paper on Friday. You may be right about the seats - he should be getting about 70% of them. But with merely 52% of the vote. It is that badly gerrymandered.