Venezuelan 2010 Election
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Author Topic: Venezuelan 2010 Election  (Read 13484 times)
redcommander
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« Reply #100 on: September 27, 2010, 01:41:58 AM »
Quote from: ag on September 27, 2010, 01:38:42 AM
It's really bad for PSUV. In Amazonas it is behind PPT (a "third force"). It's a chavista stronghold, opposition wasn't counting on anything there. It's 2 PPT 1 PSUV there.

OMG AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!! Cheesy I wasn't expecting that.
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ag
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« Reply #101 on: September 27, 2010, 01:43:37 AM »
They are claiming PSUV won in Carabobo and DC. Miranda is a tie. This is very strange.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #102 on: September 27, 2010, 01:45:00 AM »
Other regions are less good for opposition, now.
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ag
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« Reply #103 on: September 27, 2010, 01:51:29 AM »
In a joke, for the Latin American parliament it is a 5:5 tie.
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redcommander
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« Reply #104 on: September 27, 2010, 01:51:41 AM »
The Carabobo result doesn't seem right. The opposition I thought early results had ahead by several deputies.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #105 on: September 27, 2010, 01:53:03 AM »

Fraud or Elbridge Gerry got another victory?
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platypeanArchcow
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« Reply #106 on: September 27, 2010, 01:55:05 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2010, 01:57:01 AM by platypeanArchcow »
So did anyone bother to add everything up and get a total?

The announcers are having a really great time saying 'irrrreversible' every few seconds.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #107 on: September 27, 2010, 01:56:29 AM »
Globovision is saying 61.
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ag
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« Reply #108 on: September 27, 2010, 01:57:57 AM »
El Universal so far has 91 for the gov't, 59 for the opposition, 2 for the PPT.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #109 on: September 27, 2010, 01:59:18 AM »
Quote from: ag on September 27, 2010, 01:57:57 AM
El Universal so far has 91 for the gov't, 59 for the opposition, 2 for the PPT.

So, that would a good result for opposition?
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ag
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« Reply #110 on: September 27, 2010, 01:59:44 AM »
So, that makes a few more too close to call, but a gov't w/ a majority. I have a feeling, they massaged this heavily. Carabobo and DC look very strange (and, frankly, so does Miranda). Though, perhaps it's the gerrymander. We'd have to see the votes.
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ag
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« Reply #111 on: September 27, 2010, 02:00:21 AM »
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 01:59:18 AM
Quote from: ag on September 27, 2010, 01:57:57 AM
El Universal so far has 91 for the gov't, 59 for the opposition, 2 for the PPT.

So, that would a good result for opposition?

Not awful, let's put it that way. They can block constitutional amendments and such.
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redcommander
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« Reply #112 on: September 27, 2010, 02:01:30 AM »
« Edited: September 27, 2010, 02:03:29 AM by redcommander »
I was hoping for a majority. Still it is good at least that Chavez is below 2/3. If the opposition gets above 50% in the popular vote they can claim victory since Chavez heavily gerrymandered some areas they should have been competitive in. The rumor mill was completely off I guess suspecting that the opposition would get over 80.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #113 on: September 27, 2010, 02:02:34 AM »
From what I understand, opposition leaders are happy.
For sure, that is a better strategy than boycotting the election...
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ag
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« Reply #114 on: September 27, 2010, 02:05:01 AM »
Well, they aren't unhappy - this was what they were ready for. It also absolves them from responsibility: it's still the chavista country to screw. And, if it further turns out that they do have a majority of actual votes cast, they will have a real propaganda coup.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #115 on: September 27, 2010, 02:05:49 AM »
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 02:02:34 AM
From what I understand, opposition leaders are happy.
For sure, that is a better strategy than boycotting the election...

Electoral boycotts hardly ever work. I don't know why parties continue trying them.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #116 on: September 27, 2010, 02:08:31 AM »
A question is still unanswered.

Why it tooks 8 hours to announce results?
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redcommander
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« Reply #117 on: September 27, 2010, 02:10:10 AM »
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 02:02:34 AM
From what I understand, opposition leaders are happy.
For sure, that is a better strategy than boycotting the election...

That was the stupidest move they made. If they had competed even though they were going to lose, they could have prevented Chavez from passing the constitutional amendment abolishing term limits.
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redcommander
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« Reply #118 on: September 27, 2010, 02:13:13 AM »
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 02:08:31 AM
A question is still unanswered.

Why it tooks 8 hours to announce results?

Oh they probably actually committed fraud this time around. The results are skewed too heavily in Chavez's favor in opposition areas.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #119 on: September 27, 2010, 02:14:25 AM »
Quote from: redcommander on September 27, 2010, 02:10:10 AM
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 02:02:34 AM
From what I understand, opposition leaders are happy.
For sure, that is a better strategy than boycotting the election...

That was the stupidest move they made. If they had competed even though they were going to lose, they could have prevented Chavez from passing the constitutional amendment abolishing term limits.

There wasn't a referendum on that with a utterly ridiculous question which was about empowering people by giving the choice of the elected official?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #120 on: September 27, 2010, 02:17:57 AM »
Quote from: redcommander on September 27, 2010, 02:13:13 AM
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 02:08:31 AM
A question is still unanswered.

Why it tooks 8 hours to announce results?

Oh they probably actually committed fraud this time around. The results are skewed too heavily in Chavez's favor in opposition areas.

Well, I suppose than like in Russia and Iran, some statisticians will check that.
Fraud is hard to hide, because it is systematic and humans have a bias towards numbers finishing by 0 and 5. Well, that is much more complicated than that, but some results can very unlikely from the stats side.

Who knows?

And this is leading us to another question. Does gerrymandering is a electoral fraud?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #121 on: September 27, 2010, 02:18:51 AM »
Globovision: Opposition has 52% of votes!
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redcommander
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« Reply #122 on: September 27, 2010, 02:20:21 AM »
Quote from: MaxQue on September 27, 2010, 02:18:51 AM
Globovision: Opposition has 52% of votes!

They have the moral victory then! Cheesy
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #123 on: September 27, 2010, 03:04:16 AM »
Anybody have a linky or breakdown or whatever?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #124 on: September 27, 2010, 03:06:52 AM »
Not really.

You can read the past messages on that news feed, seats are given by provinces.

http://www.globovision.com
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