Barring a scandal, is the Delaware Senate race over?

[sg0508]

The lead for Castle has been around 11 pts consistently, which is far less than some of us would have predicted.  The primary can't be helping either and that could create a problem with the right.

It seems like the door is open for Coons to possibly gain some momentum and given how small the state is, a grassroots campaign, similar to what Whitehouse did in 2006 in RI could be a formula for success. 

You just figure a guy like Castle who is moderate and who has been in DE politics for over 20 years would have put this one away already. 

The last senate race won by the GOP was in '94 with Bill Roth winning just 55%.  That was one of the few races the democrats went after that year (WA and VT were the others).

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So we are writing Castle off because he is only leading by 11%? Forgive me for not being the first person onboard with this.

[Meeker]

The Republican primary voters of Delaware get to decide who will control this Senate seat on Tuesday.

On a related note, does Delaware have open, semi-open or closed primaries?

[xavier110]

On a related note, does Delaware have open, semi-open or closed primaries?

Closed.

[J. J.]

Castle wins the primary, it is Atlas blue.

[CatoMinor]

     So we are writing Castle off because he is only leading by 11%? Forgive me for not being the first person onboard with this.

^^^^^^^^

[tmthforu94]

The Republican primary voters of Delaware get to decide who will control this Senate seat on Tuesday.

On a related note, does Delaware have open, semi-open or closed primaries?

I think Republicans can still win the Senate without Deleware. They would have to win all seats they currently hold plus Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, California, North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. And according to our three-poll average on this site, Republicans are tied/leading in ever one of those states except Nevada. And even then, Republicans still have an outside chance in West Virginia and Connecticut.

[nclib]

     So we are writing Castle off because he is only leading by 11%? Forgive me for not being the first person onboard with this.

Yeah, when I first saw this thread I thought he meant that Castle was safe in the General.

The last senate race won by the GOP was in '94 with Bill Roth winning just 55%.  That was one of the few races the democrats went after that year (WA and VT were the others).

Not sure what you're trying to say--that WA, DE, VT last elected a GOP Senator in 1994--but in any case, Jeffords (as a Republican) was actually elected in 2000, and switched to Ind several months later.

The Republican primary voters of Delaware get to decide who will control this Senate seat on Tuesday.

On a related note, does Delaware have open, semi-open or closed primaries?

I think Republicans can still win the Senate without Deleware. They would have to win all seats they currently hold plus Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, California, North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. And according to our three-poll average on this site, Republicans are tied/leading in ever one of those states except Nevada. And even then, Republicans still have an outside chance in West Virginia and Connecticut.

O'Donnell will likely lose even if the GOP retakes the Senate. I doubt that your above scenario is likely since if Castle struggles in Delaware, Dems will win several of Atlas-red states, esp. Illinois.

[tmthforu94]

The Republican primary voters of Delaware get to decide who will control this Senate seat on Tuesday.

On a related note, does Delaware have open, semi-open or closed primaries?

I think Republicans can still win the Senate without Deleware. They would have to win all seats they currently hold plus Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, California, North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. And according to our three-poll average on this site, Republicans are tied/leading in ever one of those states except Nevada. And even then, Republicans still have an outside chance in West Virginia and Connecticut.

O'Donnell will likely lose even if the GOP retakes the Senate. I doubt that your above scenario is likely since if Castle struggles in Delaware, Dems will win several of Atlas-red states, esp. Illinois.

That was under the assumption O'Donnell won the primary. If Castle wins the primary but loses the general, I agree that Republicans probably won't capture the Senate.

[SPC]

I don't think it will necessarily be over, based on the polls of O'Donnell-Coons, it will probably just be demoted to Connecticut-West Virginia territory, which means that the Republicans will put a lot more money into California, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and Wisconsin (which they probably would do anyway)

[Oakvale]

I hope so, but I do think Castle can eke out a victory against the teabagger.

[Brittain33]

I hope so, but I do think Castle can eke out a victory against the teabagger.

Yes, I still think it's too early to write off Castle.

[bgwah]

I think Castle will win the primary (and thus the general), but I hope I'm wrong!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

what do you mean? O'Donnell is full of scandals.