Tmthforu94's House and Senate Predictions

[tmthforu94]

Since I spend many evenings home, bored out of my wit, I figured I'd be cool and make my own prediction thread. I'll be posting maps for both Congress and Senate, which should be a unique difference. It'll be interesting to see how the maps change between now and the election.

Feel free to be critical of my maps, as it will only help me improve my next ones...

Senate (No toss-ups):

Senate Composition: 49-49-2

Congress:


I went through just about every race, but I could have gotten something wrong. I also tried to eliminate as many toss-ups as possible, but it was hard. According to the map above, Democrats have 207 seats, Republicans have 203, and 25 are undecided.

[Psychic Octopus]

CA-11 should be toss-up. It was held by Republican Richard Pombo for a long time, and he was narrowly voted out in 2006. McNerney is incredibly weak this cycle, and the Republican nominee, David Harmer, is a strong campaigner and has led in the only poll.

TX-23 is being targeted heavily by the GOP, and although it has been gerrymandered to be more Democratic-friendly, I wouldn't remove the possibility. I'd personally keep it at toss-up for now, and then we can see if starts leaning towards the Democrats.

NV-3 should probably be toss-up instead of lean GOP. The recent polls have been sporadic, but both Heck and Titus have led in the race.

[redcommander]

I would say Washington would have a slight Republican lead currently for senate because of recent polling.

[Hash]

NM-02 should definitely be tossup, hell, maybe even tiny tilt Dem. Steve Pearce probably won't win

[Bo]

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

[Mr.Phips]

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

I would switch OR-05 and TX-17.  IN-08 is lost without Bayh, who stupidly decided to be the lamb to slaughter against Coats.  Democrats better hope he runs for his old seat in 2012. 

[tmthforu94]

Thanks for the suggestions. They'll help shape my next map.

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

I think I know better than just about anyone on here what Indiana-08 should be rated. The only Democrats who have won in this district have been conservative ones, like Brad Ellsworth. The Democrats nominee this year is quite liberal and voted with his party almost all the time in the House. This race would be tight under normal years since Bucshon doesn't have a lot of charisma, but once you take into factor the nation's mood and Obama's unpopularity in the region, Buchson should win with around 55% of the vote. If anything, I'd move it to only slight Republican. But it's not a toss-up.

[Bo]

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

I would switch OR-05 and TX-17.  IN-08 is lost without Bayh, who stupidly decided to be the lamb to slaughter against Coats.  Democrats better hope he runs for his old seat in 2012. 

TX-17 is much more Republican than OR-05 and Nate Silver shows that the GOP has much better odds at TX-17. I'd put OR-05 as Leaning Democratic since Kurt Schrader is a strong incumbent.

[Mr.Phips]

Thanks for the suggestions. They'll help shape my next map.

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

I think I know better than just about anyone on here what Indiana-08 should be rated. The only Democrats who have won in this district have been conservative ones, like Brad Ellsworth. The Democrats nominee this year is quite liberal and voted with his party almost all the time in the House. This race would be tight under normal years since Bucshon doesn't have a lot of charisma, but once you take into factor the nation's mood and Obama's unpopularity in the region, Buchson should win with around 55% of the vote. If anything, I'd move it to only slight Republican. But it's not a toss-up.

Which is why it was stupid for Democrats to push Ellsworth to run for the Senate.  They should have allowed Coats to go unnopposed and focused on keeping their House seats. 

[tmthforu94]

Current Indiana Prediction:

Dan Coats: 53.47%
Brad Ellsworth: 44.61%
Rebecca Sink-Burris: 1.57%
Others:

[Dgov]

Current Indiana Prediction:

Dan Coats: 53.47%
Brad Ellsworth: 44.61%
Rebecca Sink-Burris: 1.57%
Others:

You have Ellsworth losing Marion County but winning Porter County?  That's like Obama in 2012 winning Virginia but losing New York

[Хahar 🤔]

Thanks for the suggestions. They'll help shape my next map.

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

I think I know better than just about anyone on here what Indiana-08 should be rated. The only Democrats who have won in this district have been conservative ones, like Brad Ellsworth. The Democrats nominee this year is quite liberal and voted with his party almost all the time in the House. This race would be tight under normal years since Bucshon doesn't have a lot of charisma, but once you take into factor the nation's mood and Obama's unpopularity in the region, Buchson should win with around 55% of the vote. If anything, I'd move it to only slight Republican. But it's not a toss-up.

Which is why it was stupid for Democrats to push Ellsworth to run for the Senate.  They should have allowed Coats to go unnopposed and focused on keeping their House seats. 

You act as if the fact that Ellsworth has the best chance of winning the Senate race is irrelevant.

[Mr.Phips]

Thanks for the suggestions. They'll help shape my next map.

OH-16, IN-08, and TX-17 should be rated tossup. NC-02 should be rated likely/solid Dem. NC-08 and SC-05 should be rated Lean Dem.

I think I know better than just about anyone on here what Indiana-08 should be rated. The only Democrats who have won in this district have been conservative ones, like Brad Ellsworth. The Democrats nominee this year is quite liberal and voted with his party almost all the time in the House. This race would be tight under normal years since Bucshon doesn't have a lot of charisma, but once you take into factor the nation's mood and Obama's unpopularity in the region, Buchson should win with around 55% of the vote. If anything, I'd move it to only slight Republican. But it's not a toss-up.

Which is why it was stupid for Democrats to push Ellsworth to run for the Senate.  They should have allowed Coats to go unnopposed and focused on keeping their House seats. 

You act as if the fact that Ellsworth has the best chance of winning the Senate race is irrelevant.

It is irrelevant.  The only Democrat who could win that race was Evan Bayh.

[tmthforu94]

Current Indiana Prediction:

Dan Coats: 53.47%
Brad Ellsworth: 44.61%
Rebecca Sink-Burris: 1.57%
Others:

You have Ellsworth losing Marion County but winning Porter County?  That's like Obama in 2012 winning Virginia but losing New York

Obama won Porter county by 7 points in 2008, and Daniels lost by 11. The county is more Republican on Presidential elections, but mainly votes Democrat on everything else. Marion County swung hard for Obama, but it did vote for Bush in 2000 and was tight in 2004. Indy also has a Republican mayor, and Coats is from that area. These two counties aren't comparable to Virginia and New York at all.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Marion was one of four counties in Indiana that swung to the Democrats in 2004. Ellsworth would have to end up under 40% for him to lose Marion, unless Coats has a base there (given that Stutzman won there in the primary, I'm guessing he doesn't).

Edit: I just checked Wikipedia; looks like the county is getting less white (presumably the whites are fleeing to the suburban counties that encircle Marion). 70% in 2000 to an estimated 65% in 2005.

[tmthforu94]

Marion was one of four counties in Indiana that swung to the Democrats in 2004. Ellsworth would have to end up under 40% for him to lose Marion, unless Coats has a base there (given that Stutzman won there in the primary, I'm guessing he doesn't).

Regardless, I think Marion County will be close. I'll be up there next week at a Republican event and will be able to see what the enthusiasm is.

[tmthforu94]

It's interesting how things can change in just a month..
Senate Map:


Changes from September 12th:
California: Weak Democrat to Lean Democrat
Washington: Weak Democrat to Weak Republican
Nevada: Weak Democrat to Weak Republican
Wisconsin: Weak Republican to Lean Republican
Indiana: Lean Republican to Strong Republican
West Virginia: Weak Democrat to Weak Republican
Delaware: Lean Republican to Strong Democrat
New York(Special): Strong Democrat to Lean Democrat

(Oregon is safe Democrat. I left the color at 50% on accident)

SENATE COMPOSITION:
Republican: 51
Democratic: 47
Independent: 2

[tmthforu94]

House Map:


Please note, I realize I probably made a couple mistakes. Please feel free to correct me on those, as it will only help me make my next map better. Thank you!

Democrats: 203
Republicans: 203
Toss-up: 29

[Vepres]

NY-20 is more lean Democratic. Murphy has polled strongly, and he seems like a good fit for the district for a Democrat.

NC-07 is more competitive than NC-02 at this point IMO (and NC-02 is more lean Dem).

WV-01 is definitely a toss-up at this point as is SC-05.

MO-04 is probably lean Dem given the district's nature and the year.

I would not put OH-18 and OH-06 in the same category. I feel the former is a toss-up at this point.

CO-04 is better in the lean Dem. Frazier is very strong, and suburbs seem to be running away from Democrats (also remember that Colorado has a high number of independents, and they are turning on Democrats).

CT-05 is not a toss-up by any means.

[Torie]

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That would be CO-07, no?

[Mr.Phips]

NY-20 is more lean Democratic. Murphy has polled strongly, and he seems like a good fit for the district for a Democrat.

NC-07 is more competitive than NC-02 at this point IMO (and NC-02 is more lean Dem).

WV-01 is definitely a toss-up at this point as is SC-05.

MO-04 is probably lean Dem given the district's nature and the year.

I would not put OH-18 and OH-06 in the same category. I feel the former is a toss-up at this point.

CO-04 is better in the lean Dem. Frazier is very strong, and suburbs seem to be running away from Democrats (also remember that Colorado has a high number of independents, and they are turning on Democrats).

CT-05 is not a toss-up by any means.

I dont think Frazier can win.  Even if Bennett loses by high single digits to Buch, he'll still likely carry CO-07 by a decent margin, providing some coattails for Perlmutter.

[tmthforu94]

My Congressional Map with no toss-ups. This map puts Republicans at 233 seats and Democrats at 202.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wilson loses but not Space?