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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Virginia  (Read 32353 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #100 on: February 20, 2011, 08:37:04 pm »
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It should be salvageable if they have full latitude in redistricting (traditionally, each house of the legislature passes its own map with no outside input from the other house or the governor).  A district needs to move from SW VA to NOVA, and this can be made a Dem-leaning district.  With some creative drawing, it should be possible to protect all the Dems in NOVA and create one more Dem pick up opportunity there.  The gentleman from Fredericksburg can be protected by drawing his district to the S and E of his home instead of to the N and W.  Saving the Central VA guy, and creating 2 new opportunities in NOVA would offset the disaster that awaits the 2 blue dogs in the SW.


Northern Virginia has about enough population for 10 districts.

Beyond that, if you go compact:

The Democrats can get 2 in Richmond, 1 in Portsmouth, 1 in Newport News/Hampton Roads, 1 in Petersburg going south, and 1 in Charlottesville. Splitting and gerrymandering Roanoke down racial lines (which a court probably won't do) gets you another district, and the same in Virginia Beach.

Beyond that I think they have to unpack either the black Richmond district or the black Hampton district, which is, well, gerrymandering.


GA democrats abused population differentials and unpacked black districts the last time around. But they started losing the overall popular vote in the early to mid 90s. The gerrymander held overall for a decade.


If the GOP really wants to gain politically from this, then they should present a maximally compact, VRA-compliant House of Delegates map with as many square/rectangular districts as possible, and then dare the State Senate not to do the same.  Such a redistricting would still lead to a GOP-leaning overall delegation in a state like VA, and it would make them the "good government" party for the foreseeable future.
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« Reply #101 on: February 20, 2011, 09:02:53 pm »

It should be salvageable if they have full latitude in redistricting (traditionally, each house of the legislature passes its own map with no outside input from the other house or the governor).  A district needs to move from SW VA to NOVA, and this can be made a Dem-leaning district.  With some creative drawing, it should be possible to protect all the Dems in NOVA and create one more Dem pick up opportunity there.  The gentleman from Fredericksburg can be protected by drawing his district to the S and E of his home instead of to the N and W.  Saving the Central VA guy, and creating 2 new opportunities in NOVA would offset the disaster that awaits the 2 blue dogs in the SW.


Northern Virginia has about enough population for 10 districts.

Beyond that, if you go compact:

The Democrats can get 2 in Richmond, 1 in Portsmouth, 1 in Newport News/Hampton Roads, 1 in Petersburg going south, and 1 in Charlottesville. Splitting and gerrymandering Roanoke down racial lines (which a court probably won't do) gets you another district, and the same in Virginia Beach.

Beyond that I think they have to unpack either the black Richmond district or the black Hampton district, which is, well, gerrymandering.


GA democrats abused population differentials and unpacked black districts the last time around. But they started losing the overall popular vote in the early to mid 90s. The gerrymander held overall for a decade.


If the GOP really wants to gain politically from this, then they should present a maximally compact, VRA-compliant House of Delegates map with as many square/rectangular districts as possible, and then dare the State Senate not to do the same.  Such a redistricting would still lead to a GOP-leaning overall delegation in a state like VA, and it would make them the "good government" party for the foreseeable future.

It would also build on the Gov's executive order that created an Independent Bipartisan Redistricting Commission as an advisory body. They will be taking testimony and drawing their own maps to suggest to the legislature.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #102 on: February 20, 2011, 09:03:37 pm »
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It should be salvageable if they have full latitude in redistricting (traditionally, each house of the legislature passes its own map with no outside input from the other house or the governor).  A district needs to move from SW VA to NOVA, and this can be made a Dem-leaning district.  With some creative drawing, it should be possible to protect all the Dems in NOVA and create one more Dem pick up opportunity there.  The gentleman from Fredericksburg can be protected by drawing his district to the S and E of his home instead of to the N and W.  Saving the Central VA guy, and creating 2 new opportunities in NOVA would offset the disaster that awaits the 2 blue dogs in the SW.


Northern Virginia has about enough population for 10 districts.

Beyond that, if you go compact:

The Democrats can get 2 in Richmond, 1 in Portsmouth, 1 in Newport News/Hampton Roads, 1 in Petersburg going south, and 1 in Charlottesville. Splitting and gerrymandering Roanoke down racial lines (which a court probably won't do) gets you another district, and the same in Virginia Beach.

Beyond that I think they have to unpack either the black Richmond district or the black Hampton district, which is, well, gerrymandering.


GA democrats abused population differentials and unpacked black districts the last time around. But they started losing the overall popular vote in the early to mid 90s. The gerrymander held overall for a decade.


If the GOP really wants to gain politically from this, then they should present a maximally compact, VRA-compliant House of Delegates map with as many square/rectangular districts as possible, and then dare the State Senate not to do the same.  Such a redistricting would still lead to a GOP-leaning overall delegation in a state like VA, and it would make them the "good government" party for the foreseeable future.

The Republican leadership in the House of Delegates is about as far from good government as you can get without outright corruption. I can guarantee you that wouldn't happen in a million years.

Some of the seats in the Senate can be shored up (Roscoe Reynolds could be helped by appending Danville to his district, for example), but some are just impossible to do anything with (like Phil Puckett's seat). On the other hand, Democrats could draw a couple competitive seats, one in the inner Richmond suburbs and one in Virginia Beach, to help themselves out. I'm really curious to see what these maps end up looking like.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #103 on: February 20, 2011, 09:20:38 pm »
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My first quick attempt at the Virginia Senate.

Limits the Democrats, ideally, to 7 downstate seats. I didn't pay much attention to incumbent homes or districts.


http://www.mediafire.com/?jr3es1qeycbbs6h
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muon2
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« Reply #104 on: February 20, 2011, 11:04:33 pm »

My first quick attempt at the Virginia Senate.

Limits the Democrats, ideally, to 7 downstate seats. I didn't pay much attention to incumbent homes or districts.


http://www.mediafire.com/?jr3es1qeycbbs6h

I only see a link to the .drf file. Did you save an image?
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« Reply #105 on: February 20, 2011, 11:46:21 pm »

To follow up on my 2 VRA district hypothesis, I have drawn a matching state plan. All districts are within 100 of the ideal using VTDs with 2010 census data on Dave's App. Both CD 3 and CD 4 are 50.2% Black VAP. All districts keep the incumbent in their current numbered district except for the rep for CD 4 also in CD 2 and CD 4 is an open seat. The percentages are fro the two party vote from 2000 to 2009 as displayed on the App.

CD 1 (blue): R 57.4%
CD 2 (green): R 53.6%
CD 3 (purple): D 64.8%
CD 4 (red): D 63.6%
CD 5 (yellow): R 55.4%
CD 6 (teal): R 58.2%
CD 7 (gray): R 60.8%
CD 8 (slate): D 65.8%
CD 9 (cyan): R 57.0%
CD 10 (pink): R 53.7%
CD 11 (lime): D 56.1%


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krazen1211
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« Reply #106 on: February 21, 2011, 12:42:29 am »
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My first quick attempt at the Virginia Senate.

Limits the Democrats, ideally, to 7 downstate seats. I didn't pay much attention to incumbent homes or districts.


http://www.mediafire.com/?jr3es1qeycbbs6h

I only see a link to the .drf file. Did you save an image?

Nope, I posted the DRF as its pretty much incomplete; I hope someone might finish it for me who knows the area better.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #107 on: February 22, 2011, 10:39:51 pm »
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Images for you moun2.











The Roanoke split is pretty carefully done. Obama only won 17 districts on this map:

The 10 in NoVA (not drawn)
The purple district in Charlottesville/Albermarle
The purple district in North Richmond
The silver district in South Richmond, majority black
The pink district from Petersburg south, majority black
The pink district in Hampton Roads, majority black
The maroon district in Norfolk/Portsmouth
The brown district in Nortfolk/Portsmouth, majority black
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krazen1211
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« Reply #108 on: February 25, 2011, 09:29:54 pm »
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If two Black districts are not required in VA, would the Republicans be free to pack in as many Blacks as they want in to VA-3, or would there be a challenge?

I guess that is what the Senate Democrats will fight against, instead of forcing a 7-4 map.

There are too many whites in this kind of district to call it a racial gerrymander. It's only 57.2% black VAP, and yet 81.8% Obama.




I would say this is too ugly to be drawn, but the concept of it has already existed for a decade.
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« Reply #109 on: March 15, 2011, 06:27:56 pm »
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Rumor has it that the new Virginia delegation agreed to an incumbent protection map.



And here is NOVA.



Neither map is showing. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #110 on: March 15, 2011, 06:39:47 pm »
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Hmmm...

Anyway, sorry for the inconvenience. Here they are.

http://twitpic.com/49kcwg

http://twitpic.com/49kj6x
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« Reply #111 on: March 16, 2011, 06:14:04 am »
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And here they are:





Connoly's district goes from 57% to 62% Obama and Wolf's from 57% to 51% Obama.
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« Reply #112 on: March 16, 2011, 06:26:57 am »
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Repost for comparison's sake

Northern Virginia:




This configuration maintains a Republican 10th district at 51.3% McCain.

The 11th becomes a 61% Obama district while the 8th becomes a majority minority 67% Obama district.

Either Wittman or Cantor needs to grab the population excess in Fairfax/Prince William.


Down south, Scott can be packed to 81% and everyone else gets a McCain district. Forbes and Wittman are at 52%, while Rigell is at 51%.

Future speaker Cantor is bumped up to 55% McCain.





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« Reply #113 on: March 16, 2011, 08:40:44 am »
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No Petersburg into the 3rd, eh? They're not as ruthless as I am. Smiley

It looks like Rob Wittman lost Newport News in Wasserman's map. He's said he wants to keep it.
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« Reply #114 on: March 16, 2011, 09:49:19 am »
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Does anyone know where in Chesapeake Forbes lives?  Because if he doesn't live in the Southern part, that area (which was 2:1 McCain) should probably go into the 2nd district to shore it up more.

It's possible to draw an 8:3 republican map with all the Republicans in at least McCain 52% Districts, but you need to add Southern Chesapeake to the 2nd to get it there.
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« Reply #115 on: March 16, 2011, 02:55:21 pm »
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There is also a rumor that the DOJ is going to ask for a second VRA district. In that case according to Wasserman, Forbes will be the one that gets screwed. 
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« Reply #116 on: March 16, 2011, 06:14:06 pm »
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There is also a rumor that the DOJ is going to ask for a second VRA district. In that case according to Wasserman, Forbes will be the one that gets screwed. 

In pure percentage terms, Virginia's non-Hispanic black population barely changed from 2000.  Virginia isn't gaining any new CDs.  Non-Hispanic black VAP was barely over 2/11s in 2000, and is barely over it now, gaining a whopping 0.3 points in the interim.  The state's overall black percentage, non-Hispanic or otherwise, actually fell from 2000.  If a second VRA district wasn't required in 2000, why should it be now?  And if racist Gerrymandering takes out a Congressman, why shouldn't it be a Democrat?  Given the numbers, any second African-American majority district would be barely so.  It should take on Democrat-leaning whites to ensure that African Americans can get their preferred candidate in the general election.
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« Reply #117 on: March 17, 2011, 12:48:09 am »
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There is population for far more than one Black district in Southeast Virginia. There is currently no White Democrat in Southeast Virginia, through a combination of gerrymandering, losing Nye again in 2010, and never going after Forbes in 2006-8. There isn't population for a Black district in North Virginia, where the White Dems are. Think before you speak next time.

And the Ashcroft DoJ is no indication of VRA requirements. They didn't exactly follow the act.

As the population is over 2/11, some of the relevant decisions would argue that it's necessary. However, it's going to have to be so ugly that it's likely it would be shot right back down by Justice Kennedy.
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« Reply #118 on: March 17, 2011, 01:05:43 am »
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On that topic, does anyone think the DOJ is going to mandate a Coalition District in NOVA?  Its certainly possible and has no real effect on the partisan makeup of the region (Voting patterns are remarkably independent of racial figures in NOVA, interestingly) as both democrats would be safe in either district.  You can probably draw one about 45% VAP White depending on how messy you want to get.
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« Reply #119 on: March 17, 2011, 01:11:16 am »
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I'm not expecting this DOJ to be much more interested in the law and much less interested in partisan gain than the last one, so no. Tongue
And noone (with standing) is likely to be going to push for it in the courts, either.
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« Reply #120 on: March 17, 2011, 01:38:09 am »
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There is population for far more than one Black district in Southeast Virginia. There is currently no White Democrat in Southeast Virginia, through a combination of gerrymandering, losing Nye again in 2010, and never going after Forbes in 2006-8. There isn't population for a Black district in North Virginia, where the White Dems are. Think before you speak next time.

And the Ashcroft DoJ is no indication of VRA requirements. They didn't exactly follow the act.

As the population is over 2/11, some of the relevant decisions would argue that it's necessary. However, it's going to have to be so ugly that it's likely it would be shot right back down by Justice Kennedy.

Here is a first draft.



It doesn't look THAT ugly to be honest.
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« Reply #121 on: March 17, 2011, 02:45:33 am »
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There is population for far more than one Black district in Southeast Virginia. There is currently no White Democrat in Southeast Virginia, through a combination of gerrymandering, losing Nye again in 2010, and never going after Forbes in 2006-8. There isn't population for a Black district in North Virginia, where the White Dems are. Think before you speak next time.

And the Ashcroft DoJ is no indication of VRA requirements. They didn't exactly follow the act.

As the population is over 2/11, some of the relevant decisions would argue that it's necessary. However, it's going to have to be so ugly that it's likely it would be shot right back down by Justice Kennedy.

Fine.  Somehow Gerrymander Connolly and Moran into the same district, making it as Democratic as possible.  Use the two "required" black majority districts to pull in as many Democrats as possible.  Distribute the remaining Republican-leaning territory to shore up all 8 Republicans.

Or a better idea - do as commanded, draw the ugly VRA district that will be required, have it challenged in court and hopefully get this whole anachronistic law struck down - or at least the preclearance requirement.  The country as a whole elected a black President.  It's time.
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« Reply #122 on: March 17, 2011, 09:44:02 am »
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Fine.  Somehow Gerrymander Connolly and Moran into the same district, making it as Democratic as possible.  Use the two "required" black majority districts to pull in as many Democrats as possible.  Distribute the remaining Republican-leaning territory to shore up all 8 Republicans.

Geography doesn't allow this, I think. You can pack Moran's district as much as you can and put Connolly's home into it, but there are still enough Democrats in NoVa too far away from Richmond that there will be another district in Fairfax that Connolly will win in most years.
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« Reply #123 on: March 17, 2011, 10:40:41 am »
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Fine.  Somehow Gerrymander Connolly and Moran into the same district, making it as Democratic as possible.  Use the two "required" black majority districts to pull in as many Democrats as possible.  Distribute the remaining Republican-leaning territory to shore up all 8 Republicans.

Geography doesn't allow this, I think. You can pack Moran's district as much as you can and put Connolly's home into it, but there are still enough Democrats in NoVa too far away from Richmond that there will be another district in Fairfax that Connolly will win in most years.

Perhaps with the most erose and disgusting gerry might be able to create one hyper Dem seat in NoVA and one marginal seat, but that would be able the best one can do I would think. I assume that there are no legal restrictions as to how the GOP may draw the lines. In theory for a state like Virginia, that is marginal Dem packing 3 CD's should make the balance of the seats Pubbie, assuming the Pubbie seats can be reasonably equalized in PVI, in the right Goldilocks sweet spot. It is just a matter of mathematics. For example it looks like in Ohio that a 3 seat Dem pack will work, and it has close to the same partisan balance as Virginia, although geography in Ohio allows for a more efficient Dem pack. But than Ohio has more seats than Virginia, which I would think would largely offset that. Make sense?
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« Reply #124 on: March 17, 2011, 11:51:46 am »
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Fine.  Somehow Gerrymander Connolly and Moran into the same district, making it as Democratic as possible.  Use the two "required" black majority districts to pull in as many Democrats as possible.  Distribute the remaining Republican-leaning territory to shore up all 8 Republicans.

Geography doesn't allow this, I think. You can pack Moran's district as much as you can and put Connolly's home into it, but there are still enough Democrats in NoVa too far away from Richmond that there will be another district in Fairfax that Connolly will win in most years.

Carving up the rest of NoVa like Massachusetts carves up the inner Boston area would be a start.  Except, in this case, the goal would be to dilute Democratic strength, not amplify it.
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