US House Redistricting: Virginia

[krazen1211]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/justice-department-approves-virginias-legislative-redistricting-plan/2011/06/17/AGtufKZH_story.html


Virginia maps precleared.

Did the Virginia Senate maximize the number of black districts? Nope!

Did the Virginia Senate map add a 6th black district in the Norfolk area as proposed by the McDonnell commission? Nope!

How many black districts are there? 5, out of 40.

Hopefully we can dispense with the proportionality argument now.

[Mr.Phips]

The Senate seats weren't shored up in redistricting because McDonnell vetoed the maps.

He vetoed the map that would have created two new Democratic seats in the State Senate.  They passed a map that strengthened many Democratic incumbents and McDonnell signed it.  Democrats should have also demanded that Republicans only be able to protect their own in incumbents in the House of Delegates, not try to weaken Democratic incumbents in addition.

[Vasall des Midas]

District numbers have been kept where they were for once.

1 75% White, 15% Black, 56.0% McCain. Pretty clear what's going on here. Retreats out of the Hampton Roads.
2 67% White, 19% Black, 55.0% McCain. Counterpart to the third, obviously.
3 48% Black, 41% White, 69.9% Obama. Not *quite* as strong as you can get the Black percentage in the tidewater only (I think you can get it to 50.1% total population, though maybe that was stretching out to Franklin? Anyways, removing the White section of Newport News gets you about half a point higher than this has it. I put it back in because I liked the notion of keeping the 4th out of the region as far as possible (which isn't entirely.)
4 63% White, 30% Black, 51.9% McCain. Tries to avoid both Richmond and the Tidewater, but doesn't quite manage on either count. Getting it south of the James would have been possible, but the 1st and 5th just get so elongated in that case. Forbes is drawn out of the seat, btw, he's from Chesapeake.
5 73% White, 20% Black, 54.1% McCain. Hurt will be happy to have Lynchburg in his district. Makes sense, though. I played with getting Charlottesville into another district, but there's really no where else it can go. Unless maybe you draw a "rural areas below the fall line" seat.
6 84% White, 58.0% McCain. No, the split in the Roanoke metro was not drawn just to keep Goodlatte and Griffith apart, though I know it has consequence. Keep the ninth out of it, and it needs to swallow up too many rural areas around it. Put it all in the ninth, and it needs to shed too much territory. Obviously takes in the remainder of the Shenandoah Valley.
7 55% White, 32% Black, 58.7% Obama. Now a purely Richmond seat that Cantor doesn't hold come hell or high water.
8 53% White, 20% Hispanic, 13% Black, 12% Asian, 66.9% Obama. I started with the premise that the gerrymandered Reston earmuff needed to go, and then with determining what area the three seats together should take up (which became quite obvious quite quickly). The somewhat southerly alignment came about from juggling population requirements and an attempt to split as few towns/CDPs as possible.
9 92% White, 60.9% McCain. Not much to say.
10 59% White, 19% Asian, 12% Hispanic, 57.0% Obama. Don't really think Wolf holds on in this, though it's actually possible if he tries.
11 53% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% Black, 11% Asian, 56.0% Obama. Connolly is obviously favored (and just about in the district), but not really safe.

If it's considered necessary that the Black seat be majority non-Hispanic Black only VAP, it must extend beyond the Hampton Roads. You could satisfy the requirement with just a few rural areas, but this seems not good policy to me - why split a continuous belt of Black-dominated rural counties? So here's an alternate Southeast Virginia with a Black-majority seat:



2nd 67% White, 19% Black, 53.1% McCain (those Norfolk Whites don't vote Republican)
3rd 52% Black, 38% White, 69.4% Obama (see above)
4th 66% White, 25%  Black, 54.2% McCain, and I much worse seat than before. Forbes is still paired with Rigell.

[Devils30]

the dems should try to leave VA-10 as is. In 8 years it will be a clearly lean D district

[Torie]

The Senate is 50/50; it's not inevitable that the Republicans win this year.

I read your excellent analysis of the State Senate prospect on Kos.  Having done so, it looks to me that the Pubbies have a very good chance to pick up their two seats. No doubt both parties will be pouring huge amounts of money into those two seats in particular. So it should be a pretty high turnout election there.

[krazen1211]

And we've got a Congressional map introduced to the House of Delegates:

http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx#13,map

Time to resurrect this puppy.

Districts by McDonnell/Deeds

3: 69% Deeds
8: 60% Deeds
11: 50% Deeds

State: 59% McDonnell

2: 62% McDonnell
5: 62% McDonnell
4: 63% McDonnell
10: 63% McDonnell
1: 66% McDonnell
9: 66% McDonnell
6: 67% McDonnell
7: 68% McDonnell

[Torie]

VA-02 looks like it got more Democratic. Did it? The white parts of Newport News are not really liberal, but they did vote for Obama, I think.

Just put it on Dave's Redistricting; difference is negligible from the 2000 iteration. I'm a little surprised they didn't try to make VA-02 safer, as it's definitely possible to do so.

Now that the Pubbies have won the trifecta, their gerry is relevant again, and I drew VA-02 and it is 55% McCain, up from 49% McCain, or 6 PVI points. It's very safe GOP now.

[Torie]

Anyone know why the White part of Portsmouth is still in the 3rd?  That area voted like 60% McCain, and is easily removable from that district in exchange for some black precincts in Chesapeake and Virginia beach to shore up the 2nd and 4th

The Pubs in their gerrymander try to avoid chopping municipalities. That's why. And they don't need to.

[dpmapper]

Now that the Pubbies have won the trifecta, their gerry is relevant again, and I drew VA-02 and it is 55% McCain, up from 49% McCain, or 6 PVI points. It's very safe GOP now.

According to the BJanis map?  I have it at 50% McCain, not much change.  If they are more efficient picking which Portsmouth precincts to put into VA-3 they can get VA-2 and VA-4 to 52% McCain. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Janis is out of the legislature, so they may come up with a new map.

[Torie]

Now that the Pubbies have won the trifecta, their gerry is relevant again, and I drew VA-02 and it is 55% McCain, up from 49% McCain, or 6 PVI points. It's very safe GOP now.

According to the BJanis map?  I have it at 50% McCain, not much change.  If they are more efficient picking which Portsmouth precincts to put into VA-3 they can get VA-2 and VA-4 to 52% McCain.  

Did I use the wrong map?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Randy Forbes isn't going to like Chesapeake getting split in half.

[Senator Sbane]

VA-02 looks like it got more Democratic. Did it? The white parts of Newport News are not really liberal, but they did vote for Obama, I think.

Just put it on Dave's Redistricting; difference is negligible from the 2000 iteration. I'm a little surprised they didn't try to make VA-02 safer, as it's definitely possible to do so.

Now that the Pubbies have won the trifecta, their gerry is relevant again, and I drew VA-02 and it is 55% McCain, up from 49% McCain, or 6 PVI points. It's very safe GOP now.

Are they going to try to take out Connolly? That would be quite hard, wouldn't it? Shoring up the 2nd seems like a good idea though.

[Senator Sbane]

I just drew a Republican gerrymander where the 6th also comes in and takes in part of NOVA in addition to the 8th, 10th and the 11th. The 8th goes in and takes in eastern Prince William County, which seems to be an area that will vote Democrat no matter what, whereas a lot of the rest of NOVA is swingable. The 8th is now 69-31 Obama. The 10th is 53.3-46.7 Obama. The 11th is 53.1-46.9 Obama. The 6th takes in a lot of Republican territory and is safe Republican at 54.7-44.3 Mccain.

[krazen1211]

VA-02 looks like it got more Democratic. Did it? The white parts of Newport News are not really liberal, but they did vote for Obama, I think.

Just put it on Dave's Redistricting; difference is negligible from the 2000 iteration. I'm a little surprised they didn't try to make VA-02 safer, as it's definitely possible to do so.

Now that the Pubbies have won the trifecta, their gerry is relevant again, and I drew VA-02 and it is 55% McCain, up from 49% McCain, or 6 PVI points. It's very safe GOP now.

Are they going to try to take out Connolly? That would be quite hard, wouldn't it? Shoring up the 2nd seems like a good idea though.

Nope; the Janis map conceded the 11th. As you can see even Deeds won it.

Unfortunately Virginia is not North Carolina; cramming Democrats into 3 districts is harder.

Also Wolf wants to keep some of his Winchester base, which is hard as the DC collar counties fit about 3.1 districts. So extending Wolf to Winchester means Wittman has to sneak into Prince William County further. By COI Wolf's district should probably move out of the Shenandoah Valley fully but that puts it at 52% Obama or so.

Torie has the wrong map, though. Cheseapeake won't be split 3 ways; VA-02 grows into Newport News.

[Vasall des Midas]

Torie has the wrong map, though. Cheseapeake won't be split 3 ways; VA-02 grows into Newport News.

Maybe he has the Democrats' plan? Since that was converting Forbes' into a safe D seat, it would make sense that the 2nd would become much safer Republican?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is what I came up with really quickly:



You can't tell from the picture, but VA-03 is connected via water contiguity.

VA-01 - 52.4 McCain
VA-02 - 52.2 McCain
VA-03 - 80.6 Obama, 54.8% black VAP
VA-04 - 52.3 McCain
VA-05 - 53.6 McCain
VA-06 - 57.9 McCain
VA-07 - 55.8 McCain
VA-08 - 66.9 Obama
VA-09 - 59.6 McCain
VA-10 - 50.2 McCain
VA-11 - 61.3 Obama

[Torie]

Here is my little effort for NOVA, which keeps Frank Wolf's home in his CD.  Ugly SOB I know.

[Senator Sbane]

I like JLT's map better. What are the partisan numbers for that 9th district you seem to have drawn in NOVA.

[Frodo]

Here is my little effort for NOVA, which keeps Frank Wolf's home in his CD.  Ugly SOB I know.

Is that light blue/cyan frightened poodle Gerry Connally's district.  

[Torie]

Of course Frodo!  Pack those Dems in!  It is amazing how Dem Reston has gone by the way (upper middle class to rich territory). And here is the rest of the state. There is a bit of a drastic shift of territory between VA-01 and VA-07 (although both incumbents continue to live in their respective CD's as it happens), but that in my view is what is needed to effectively spread the Pubbie "wealth" around.  It is most inconvenient for VA-07 to butt into metro DC more, while being dragged down by a bunch of marginal territory down south along the east coast of Chesapeake Bay, so a switch out was in order. The variation of color represents CD territory exchanged between CD's, which I think is instructive.

[Torie]

I like JLT's map better. What are the partisan numbers for that 9th district you seem to have drawn in NOVA.

I specialize in going for the throat sbane.




Oh, you said "NOVA." The "fighting Ninth" is not in NOVA.  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Of course Frodo!  Pack those Dems in!  It is amazing how Dem Reston has gone by the way (upper middle class to rich territory). And here is the rest of the state. There is a bit of a drastic shift of territory between VA-01 and VA-07 (although both incumbents continue to live in their respective CD's as it happens), but that in my view is what is needed to effectively spread the Pubbie "wealth" around.  It is most inconvenient for VA-07 to butt into metro DC more, while being dragged down by a bunch of marginal territory down south along the east coast of Chesapeake Bay, so a switch out was in order. The variation of color represents CD territory exchanged between CD's, which I think is instructive.

Rob Wittman isn't going to want most of the Northern Neck drawn out of the district, that's his political base. I doubt Cantor's going to want a bunch of new constituents either.

[Torie]

Well, there is not much population there on the coast actually, and VA-07 already was in NOVA and needs to take more, and the boy needs to lose some of "his base" or have a substantially more marginal CD. I am sure he will get used to it. Cantor's CD actually goes up 50 basis points in Pubbness.  He will get used to it too. Cantor is a team player.

Yes, I know, the Pubs already drew a map. But I will not let that deflect me from my creative endeavors.

[Torie]

And here is what I was able to do with the other Pubbie "problem child."  The erosity in Newport News was for a reason of course.