US House Redistricting: Virginia

[JohnnyLongtorso]

No, that's not how it works. McDonnell can amend the bill and send it back to the legislature, but both houses have to approve the amendments.

Ah, so he can amend the Senate plan and kick it back to the House of Delegates, who would then just sit on it until Congressional districting is done?

Theoretically, but there's not much incentive for the House to do that, given that the maps have to be in place this year (and they still need to go through DoJ clearance). Otherwise they'll be having elections again next year under new maps, and I don't think the Republican Delegates in NoVa want to be on the ballot with Obama.

[Dgov]

I'm really not sympathetic to any Republican arguments about "abusing the VRA to suit the party's needs" given the maps that are proliferating on this board. Mamie Locke, who submitted the Congressional map, also presumably voted for the Senate redistricting.

What are you talking about?  If anything, Republicans are trying to get around the ridiculous and out-dated legislation designed to politically segregate races into their own districts.  The Democrats are basically using the fact that Obama controls to DOJ as a free "Get out of this map" card in any state where they think they deserve more seats.

hell, i wouldn't be surprised to see them try this in Ohio too (where they can get another black-pluarlty district out of Republican-represented SW and Central Ohio).

[krazen1211]

What are you talking about?  If anything, Republicans are trying to get around the ridiculous and out-dated legislation designed to politically segregate races into their own districts.  The Democrats are basically using the fact that Obama controls to DOJ as a free "Get out of this map" card in any state where they think they deserve more seats.

hell, i wouldn't be surprised to see them try this in Ohio too (where they can get another black-pluarlty district out of Republican-represented SW and Central Ohio).

I don't know if that's a fair characterization.

Democrats cry for more black/hispanics seats where they think it will benefit them, and avoid them when they think it will hurt them...hence MALDEF's behavior over CA/TX, the lack of minority districts in NJ, the lack of a black district in AR, among many other examples.

Republicans do the exact same thing.

I wouldn't make the bolded statement, though, given how LA-02 was just drawn to shove every black community possible (along with white NOLA liberals) into a single district, and the same is obviously coming in AL and SC.

[Dgov]

Republicans do the exact same thing.

No, they just use it as an excuse.  In essentially every case, forming a black-majority district results in a Dem-pack (and usually an efficient one).  Its not as if we wouldn't have something like LA-2 without the VRA.; its too good of a map for the Republican in general.

In other words, it's partisanship, plain and simple.

The Problem comes with the VRA itself, and its rule that minorities are politically protected demographics who get a special say in how maps are drawn to adequately protect their "interests".  As someone who believes in a strictly color-blind society, it offends me that we still have a requirement to create districts that's sole function is to dictate the race of the person representing it.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So what are the Senate Democrats doing with the Congressional map? The logical thing to me seems to be to propose a map that strengthens Connolly and makes VA-02 and VA-05 slightly more vulnerable but still Republican seats, then look like the reasonable people if the House pushes for a blatant Republican gerrymander. There is as much chance of Virginia getting a blatant Democratic gerrymander as there is of Massachusetts getting a Republican gerrymander.

[Gravis Marketing]

So what are the Senate Democrats doing with the Congressional map? The logical thing to me seems to be to propose a map that strengthens Connolly and makes VA-02 and VA-05 slightly more vulnerable but still Republican seats, then look like the reasonable people if the House pushes for a blatant Republican gerrymander. There is as much chance of Virginia getting a blatant Democratic gerrymander as there is of Massachusetts getting a Republican gerrymander.

They turn VA-4 into an open Richmond-based district that leans D and collapses VA-3 down into the Tidewater area only with a smaller African-American population.

[krazen1211]

No, they just use it as an excuse.  In essentially every case, forming a black-majority district results in a Dem-pack (and usually an efficient one).  Its not as if we wouldn't have something like LA-2 without the VRA.; its too good of a map for the Republican in general.

In other words, it's partisanship, plain and simple.

That would be true....in areas where the GOP controls redistricting. Which is the case in this decade everywhere, but it hasn't been in the past.

The Bush I DOJ obviously used the VRA to try to pick up more districts in the south even as Democratic legislatures tried to resist the idea. The Bush II DOJ tried to prevent the GA Dems from cracking apart numerous black areas in order to protect their dying majority.

Elsewhere, even when Democrats control redistricting and perhaps would like to unpack their Democrats (in say South Side Chicago) they're less able to easily do so than they would be in absence of the VRA.

I think its more of a mixed bag, personally.

[Gravis Marketing]

Map of the Mamiemander here:

http://hamptonroads.com/2011/04/us-rep-forbes-hanging-edge-his-seat

(It was my great-grandmother's name...)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

McDonnell is apparently going to veto the state legislature maps. I guess he'd rather earn the House's scorn and try to pick up the Senate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

McDonnell is apparently going to veto the state legislature maps. I guess he'd rather earn the House's scorn and try to pick up the Senate.

So, what happens now? Do the courts draw the maps or are they going to be two elections like Mississippi?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nobody has any idea. I've always understood it that they would have elections this year and next, but other people are claiming that that's not true and it's not in the state constitution. It has happened before, in 1981 and 1982.

[Senator Napoleon]

Who controls the court?

[Dgov]

Who controls the court?

According to the Wikipedia page, the justices are elected by the State General Assembly (both houses), so it's probably well-split.  6 of the 7 were elected while the Democrats held the State Senate and Republicans held the house, so there was probably plenty of horse-trading going on.

Oddly enough, for having 12-year terms, 6 of the 7 are elected within 2 years of each other.  They don't have well-staggered terms.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

In practice, most of the justices get appointed, since the GA is only in session for a few months out of the year.

You have:

Cynthia Kinser, Donald Lemons - Allen appointments
Bernard Goodwyn, Leroy Millette, Bill Mims - Kaine appointments

And the Senior Justices, who I guess rotate in and out as needed:

Henry Carrico, Charles Russell, Lawrence Koontz - doesn't say, probably elected by the legislature
Elizabeth Lacy - Baliles appointment

[Skill and Chance]

If the Republicans in the state legislature were truly concerned about getting wiped out by Obama's turnout in 2012, then they could vote to override McDonnell's veto of the Senate/House map package.  Since there is no talk of a veto override in the senate, we have to conclude that this is not a priority for the House speaker or Senate minority leader.  Speaker Howell would be frantically placing calls to state senate GOPers to whip votes for the map package.  If Obama had JFK or FDR level approval, that would be a much greater concern, but as long as VA will be close, the state level GOP shouldn't be in panic mode about running in 2012.

[Frodo]

Surprised no one in this thread mentioned before now that earlier this week Governor Bob McDonnell had signed revised redistricting plans for the General Assembly -the congressional districts will apparently be dealt with later.  Maps are included in this Richmond Times-Dispatch article.

[Gravis Marketing]

Ok, any reason for the Senate Dems not to let the congressional map go to the courts? Bobby Scott endorsed the Senate plan, which means he's not looking to have his district packed with every Dem voter in that part of the state in order to create 4 safe Republican districts.

[krazen1211]

Ok, any reason for the Senate Dems not to let the congressional map go to the courts? Bobby Scott endorsed the Senate plan, which means he's not looking to have his district packed with every Dem voter in that part of the state in order to create 4 safe Republican districts.

If they win in 2011? Probably not.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans hold all the cards; they can just wait until 2012, at which point the Democrats may not have Senate control anymore. If not, they'll just push the Democrats into accepting 8-3, since the Democrats have so far had no spine when it comes to redistricting.

[Frodo]

Both chambers have approved their predictably conflicting congressional redistricting maps, as of late last week.  The link to the redistricting maps is available on the Richmond Times Dispatch site:

Consensus lacking on districts, judgeships

By TYLER WHITLEY
Published: June 13, 2011

Legislators who left Richmond on Thursday with unfinished business regarding congressional redistricting and court vacancies are not sure differences between the House of Delegates and Senate can be resolved.

It may be left to the courts to settle the congressional map and to Gov. Bob McDonnell to fill the court vacancies, leaders suggested recently.

State Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple, D-Arlington, one of three Senate negotiators on congressional districts, said she didn't know whether the differences over the 11 congressional districts can be resolved.

But she said "there are only 11 districts, and that should make it easier."

Del. Bill Janis, R-Henrico, author of the House plan, said he thought the differences could be resolved "once everyone gets together. I'm still hopeful things can be resolved by the middle of July."

He added that he does not expect unanimous agreement by the Senate conferees.

The Senate supports a plan that would create a minority-influence district in the state as well as a district with minorities making up the majority. The House of Delegates is backing a plan that would leave the current congressional map, with one majority-minority district, essentially as it is.

[So the Heroes Fall]

So I guess the Senate plan is 7-4 then. Where's the new minority/Democratic seat?

[krazen1211]

So I guess the Senate plan is 7-4 then. Where's the new minority/Democratic seat?

Bobby Scott is split up into a Newport News district and a Richmond district. Forbes is dissolved.

The GOP will simply pass a new plan once they win the state Senate. Silly charade.

[Mr.Phips]

So I guess the Senate plan is 7-4 then. Where's the new minority/Democratic seat?

Bobby Scott is split up into a Newport News district and a Richmond district. Forbes is dissolved.

The GOP will simply pass a new plan once they win the state Senate. Silly charade.

The GOP isnt winning the Senate.  Most Democratic seats were shored up in redistricting and there are no Democratic retirements.  This isnt 2010 anymore.  Now that the GOP holds the House, they are the unpopular ones. 

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The Senate seats weren't shored up in redistricting because McDonnell vetoed the maps.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Senate is 50/50; it's not inevitable that the Republicans win this year.