What will be November's results in Delaware?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also why does cynic assume that every single Catholic in existence follows every single teaching of their church? This isn't the first time he has basically done so.

[cinyc]

Also why does cynic assume that every single Catholic in existence follows every single teaching of their church? This isn't the first time he has basically done so.

When have I assumed that?  The only thing I said is that Catholic church doctrine teaches that masturbation is a sin.  My point isn't that Catholics (or conservative Protestants or Jews or some Muslims whose religion teaches them the same) follow their church doctrine - just that it is what is taught as a matter of faith.  Painting someone as out of the mainstream for following the doctrine of a mainstream church is bizarre to me.  It's not like O'Donnell, working for a conservative think tank, just made up the position she argued for on masturbation whole cloth.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not mainstream because very few people agree with it.

[Brittain33]

When have I assumed that?  The only thing I said is that Catholic church doctrine teaches that masturbation is a sin.  My point isn't that Catholics (or conservative Protestants or Jews or some Muslims whose religion teaches them the same) follow their church doctrine - just that it is what is taught as a matter of faith.  Painting someone as out of the mainstream for following the doctrine of a mainstream church is bizarre to me.  It's not like O'Donnell, working for a conservative think tank, just made up the position she argued for on masturbation whole cloth.

I have a question for churchgoing posters, or people who grew up going to church, Catholic or Protestant. Do clergymen make an issue of this? Do they tell parishioners not to do this because it's wrong and explain why it's wrong? Is it discussed in Sunday school?

There's no way in hell this ever would have been discussed in Hebrew School, but Judaism doesn't have the same view of sexuality as Roman Catholicism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Primary school I went to had the local vicar come in every Thursday morning. Not once did he mention masturbation. Mind you, that was CofE (I'm not an Anglican, but all the schools in the area I grew up in were and are), though he was on the conservative end of the Church.

[Joe Republic]

Primary school I went to had the local vicar come in every Thursday morning. Not once did he mention masturbation. Mind you, that was CofE (I'm not an Anglican, but all the schools in the area I grew up in were and are), though he was on the conservative end of the Church.

Why would he mention masturbation to pre-pubescent kids?

[Torie]

The only comment that I ever heard that was negative about masturbation was from William Kristol (Bill's father), in a lecture of his that I attended at the University of Chicago,  who said the problem with masturbation was that it was socially isolating. So I guess his thesis was that folks should get so horny, that their sex drive would hormonally propel them into socially productive relationships that they otherwise would be too sexually satisfied to pursue. No, I am not making this up.

[Vepres]

A women's position on masturbation is the issue, not her questionable ethics.

And y'all wonder why few females post here

[Brittain33]

A women's position on masturbation is the issue, not her questionable ethics.

For the umpteenth time, it's not her view, it's her making a career out of promoting that view. And it's not evil so much as not particularly compatible with becoming a U.S. Senator. 

Also, we seem to be talking about this because Republicans have conceded the ethical issues but some have been making a stand, defending her on this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Primary school I went to had the local vicar come in every Thursday morning. Not once did he mention masturbation. Mind you, that was CofE (I'm not an Anglican, but all the schools in the area I grew up in were and are), though he was on the conservative end of the Church.

Why would he mention masturbation to pre-pubescent kids?

Sex education starts in primary school here.

[The Vorlon]

I actually expect the race to narrow to a very slim Coons victory, I don't think "crazy lady" can win, but I would not be totally shocked if she did.

It's a monster GOP wave, the more data I see the scarier it gets.  This is a once in 100 years storm.  It's a monster, the data is terrifying....The media and the political class just don't have a bleeping idea what is going on in the mainstream of America.

I am on record as saying 45 GOP net pickup in the House as a floor. not the midrange.

I've run some "generic ballot" numbers through simulations and computer models and I just have a hard time believing the numbers.... watch what happens on election night... you may never see it again in your life time.   Remember it so you can tell your grandkids when you 83 years old.....

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I actually expect the race to narrow to a very slim Coons victory, I don't think "crazy lady" can win, but I would not be totally shocked if she did.

It's a monster GOP wave, the more data I see the scarier it gets.  This is a once in 100 years storm.  It's a monster, the data is terrifying....The media and the political class just don't have a bleeping idea what is going on in the mainstream of America.

I am on record as saying 45 GOP net pickup in the House as a floor. not the midrange.

I've run some "generic ballot" numbers through simulations and computer models and I just have a hard time believing the numbers.... watch what happens on election night... you may never see it again in your life time.   Remember it so you can tell your grandkids when you 83 years old.....

lol, don't put so much trust in the generic ballot. The republicans will have to win each race individually.

[Dan the Roman]

I actually expect the race to narrow to a very slim Coons victory, I don't think "crazy lady" can win, but I would not be totally shocked if she did.

It's a monster GOP wave, the more data I see the scarier it gets.  This is a once in 100 years storm.  It's a monster, the data is terrifying....The media and the political class just don't have a bleeping idea what is going on in the mainstream of America.

I am on record as saying 45 GOP net pickup in the House as a floor. not the midrange.

I've run some "generic ballot" numbers through simulations and computer models and I just have a hard time believing the numbers.... watch what happens on election night... you may never see it again in your life time.   Remember it so you can tell your grandkids when you 83 years old.....

Things always look this way in August.

The Wave in August of 1994 dwarfed the one we got. Clinton was 9 points lower in the polls than he was in November, and for instance Foley got 39% in his primary and managed to claw that back to 49% by November. Not to mention Kennedy was behind.

In August of 1996 everyone, including Barbour, thought the House was gone for the GOP.

In October of 1998, Cook predicted the GOP gaining 15-25 House seats.

In August of 2000 the Democrats looked like strong favorites to win the house.

Ditto for 2002.

In 2004 the Democrats had a 7-10 point lead in the generic ballot in August.

Basically the incumbent party in every congressional election since 1982 has hit rock bottom at the end of August and then bounced back. The fact that incumbents all go up on airwaves that have been dominated by their challengers, and the fact that voters begin to tune in. Also the enthusiasm gap only has downwards to go. The same would have happened in 2006 if not for Foley, and 2008 if not for the financial collapse.

Don't get me wrong. This is going to be a horrible year for the Democrats. But it is going to be far less horrible than if the election had been held on September 5th. I think we are already starting to see the movement with recent polling numbers which seem to be trending up, and most democratic incumbents in the house are running 6-8 points above the generic ballot even in GOP internals.

[Beet]

What's your current prediction for seat pick up Vorlon?

[Torie]

What's your current prediction for seat pick up Vorlon?

Mine is GOP +62 (three GOP candidates kind of crashed and burned since I put up 65), if the election were held now, with by election day a regress towards the Dems, as they toss their fortune (just about everything they have as they desperately try to save incumbents they thought were quite safe) into this with attack ads, of maybe down to about 50 or so. But the thing is, is that with not much more movement towards the GOP, from where it is now (or was a week ago; there does seem some slight blip to the Dems at the moment, before the upcoming huge GOP money dump), it could be close to unbelievable. It depends where the undecideds go. Do they regress back to Dem voters (almost all of them were former Dem voters), or are they mad enough to "just do it?"

The collapse of whatever Dem margin in absolute terms from 2008 with under 30 voters will be just brutal. In fact, I suspect the GOP will carry them, if the election were held today.

Plus 7 for the Senate.

Yes, I know, you wanted Vorlon's prediction, the man. Sorry to intrude, but lawyers tend to be mouthy and opinionated. 

[Dan the Roman]

What's your current prediction for seat pick up Vorlon?

Mine is GOP +62 (three GOP candidates kind of crashed and burned since I put up 65), if the election were held now, with by election day a regress towards the Dems, as they toss their fortune (just about everything they have as they desperately try to save incumbents they thought were quite safe) into this with attack ads, of maybe down to about 50 or so. But the thing is, is that with not much more movement towards the GOP, from where it is now (or was a week ago; there does seem some slight blip to the Dems at the moment, before the upcoming huge GOP money dump), it could be close to unbelievable. It depends where the undecideds go. Do they regress back to Dem voters (almost all of them were former Dem voters), or are they mad enough to "just do it?"

The collapse of whatever Dem margin in absolute terms from 2008 with under 30 voters will be just brutal. In fact, I suspect the GOP will carry them, if the election were held today.

Plus 7 for the Senate.

Yes, I know, you wanted Vorlon's prediction, the man. Sorry to intrude, but lawyers tend to be mouthy and opinionated. 

How much of that is a change in preference and how much of it is that turnout in that category has crashed to almost nothing, at least according to likely voter polls. SUSA has been having samples with 4-5% 18-29, and the gap there between the polls testing likely voters versus registered voters is enormous.

Not trying to say the GOP won't win that voting group, but polling does not seem to indicate a massive change in views in that group so much as the marginally center-left but apolitical body of that age groups simply not showing up.

Actually this is my general problem with the people trying to do the same thing Democrats did after 2008 and Republicans after 2004, namely attempting to extrapolate trends based on a very odd election, and before votes are cast for that matter. Tom Jensen has said repeatedly that the basis of the current environment is less a shift in preferences than a major shift in the likely voter pool. He pointed out that Hodes would be winning by 5 in their most recent poll if the electorate matched the 2008 one. Not all of those voters will be back in 2012, or 2014, or even the next two months, but not all of them are going to stay away either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When have I assumed that?  The only thing I said is that Catholic church doctrine teaches that masturbation is a sin.  My point isn't that Catholics (or conservative Protestants or Jews or some Muslims whose religion teaches them the same) follow their church doctrine - just that it is what is taught as a matter of faith.  Painting someone as out of the mainstream for following the doctrine of a mainstream church is bizarre to me.  It's not like O'Donnell, working for a conservative think tank, just made up the position she argued for on masturbation whole cloth.

I have a question for churchgoing posters, or people who grew up going to church, Catholic or Protestant. Do clergymen make an issue of this? Do they tell parishioners not to do this because it's wrong and explain why it's wrong? Is it discussed in Sunday school?

There's no way in hell this ever would have been discussed in Hebrew School, but Judaism doesn't have the same view of sexuality as Roman Catholicism.

I didn't even know there were people against masturbation until well into my teens! (16 or so.) Of all the anti-Catholic stuff I heard (and there was a lot), that never came up. Not something I've heard of frequently preached even in fundie and Catholic churches, though I do remember reading a reprint of some Mormon pamphlet for youth preaching of the evils of it.

[Badger]

actually, most parents share the same concerns when their kids go off to college.  so I live this piece as a positive, even in DE.

They may share their concerns, but they also think that grownups who obsess about these issues and related ones (as Christine does) can be creepy and perhaps not who they're looking for in office. Her terminology here is definitely closer to "creepy" than "concerned parent," to boot.

with her looks, she aint creepy when talking about sex

Ironically, that was a really creepy post.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I say Coons with over 55%, probably around 56-57%.

Whoa. Nailed it.