What will be November's results in Delaware?

[Dan the Roman]

Her real problem is going to be the constant stream of leaks from the Mount Everest sized pile of opposition research that is available. Things like this:

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/09/15/odonnell_orgy_rooms/index.html

And since they are about sex everyone will pay attention.

[Dan the Roman]

The problem is less the merits of what she is saying, than the fact that we have a narrative that she says insane things, and the media can keep digging them up. This is not the narrative that a serious person wants driving the campaign.

PS: She thinks Dinosaur fossils are fake.
 http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-vine/77707/odonnell-carbon-dating-bogus

[Dan the Roman]

I actually expect the race to narrow to a very slim Coons victory, I don't think "crazy lady" can win, but I would not be totally shocked if she did.

It's a monster GOP wave, the more data I see the scarier it gets.  This is a once in 100 years storm.  It's a monster, the data is terrifying....The media and the political class just don't have a bleeping idea what is going on in the mainstream of America.

I am on record as saying 45 GOP net pickup in the House as a floor. not the midrange.

I've run some "generic ballot" numbers through simulations and computer models and I just have a hard time believing the numbers.... watch what happens on election night... you may never see it again in your life time.   Remember it so you can tell your grandkids when you 83 years old.....

Things always look this way in August.

The Wave in August of 1994 dwarfed the one we got. Clinton was 9 points lower in the polls than he was in November, and for instance Foley got 39% in his primary and managed to claw that back to 49% by November. Not to mention Kennedy was behind.

In August of 1996 everyone, including Barbour, thought the House was gone for the GOP.

In October of 1998, Cook predicted the GOP gaining 15-25 House seats.

In August of 2000 the Democrats looked like strong favorites to win the house.

Ditto for 2002.

In 2004 the Democrats had a 7-10 point lead in the generic ballot in August.

Basically the incumbent party in every congressional election since 1982 has hit rock bottom at the end of August and then bounced back. The fact that incumbents all go up on airwaves that have been dominated by their challengers, and the fact that voters begin to tune in. Also the enthusiasm gap only has downwards to go. The same would have happened in 2006 if not for Foley, and 2008 if not for the financial collapse.

Don't get me wrong. This is going to be a horrible year for the Democrats. But it is going to be far less horrible than if the election had been held on September 5th. I think we are already starting to see the movement with recent polling numbers which seem to be trending up, and most democratic incumbents in the house are running 6-8 points above the generic ballot even in GOP internals.

[Dan the Roman]

What's your current prediction for seat pick up Vorlon?

Mine is GOP +62 (three GOP candidates kind of crashed and burned since I put up 65), if the election were held now, with by election day a regress towards the Dems, as they toss their fortune (just about everything they have as they desperately try to save incumbents they thought were quite safe) into this with attack ads, of maybe down to about 50 or so. But the thing is, is that with not much more movement towards the GOP, from where it is now (or was a week ago; there does seem some slight blip to the Dems at the moment, before the upcoming huge GOP money dump), it could be close to unbelievable. It depends where the undecideds go. Do they regress back to Dem voters (almost all of them were former Dem voters), or are they mad enough to "just do it?"

The collapse of whatever Dem margin in absolute terms from 2008 with under 30 voters will be just brutal. In fact, I suspect the GOP will carry them, if the election were held today.

Plus 7 for the Senate.

Yes, I know, you wanted Vorlon's prediction, the man. Sorry to intrude, but lawyers tend to be mouthy and opinionated. 

How much of that is a change in preference and how much of it is that turnout in that category has crashed to almost nothing, at least according to likely voter polls. SUSA has been having samples with 4-5% 18-29, and the gap there between the polls testing likely voters versus registered voters is enormous.

Not trying to say the GOP won't win that voting group, but polling does not seem to indicate a massive change in views in that group so much as the marginally center-left but apolitical body of that age groups simply not showing up.

Actually this is my general problem with the people trying to do the same thing Democrats did after 2008 and Republicans after 2004, namely attempting to extrapolate trends based on a very odd election, and before votes are cast for that matter. Tom Jensen has said repeatedly that the basis of the current environment is less a shift in preferences than a major shift in the likely voter pool. He pointed out that Hodes would be winning by 5 in their most recent poll if the electorate matched the 2008 one. Not all of those voters will be back in 2012, or 2014, or even the next two months, but not all of them are going to stay away either.