US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Torie]

Okay, I admit I framed this answer that way largely for aesthetic reasons. Kaptur would beat Kucinich, and Sutton is, I think, in your lawngreen pubbie seat, but near the Akron end.

Dennis's home base in that south Cleveland box (and elsewhere along the Dem pack southern borderland in Cuyahoga is now largely in OH-11). Much of the rest, is now in OH-16. Sutton per your comment does indeed live in the wrong zip code. But having said that,  the most Dem precincts in Dennis land are now in OH-09. Can Kaptur really appeal to all those voters in Cleveland and Lakewood?  Maybe Sutton will move. And/or Dennis will move, but Dennis is done. He won't get any votes in Lucas, except a few odd nutters, in a Dem primary.

[Horus]

A Kaptur vs. Kucinich race would be amazing. The longest serving woman in the house vs. Dennis Kucinich (One of my least favorite Democrats in the house, despite the fact that I agree with him on a WHOLE lot). Kaptur would have Toledo locked and Kucinich would obviously have certain parts of Cuyahogo locked but that race would be a very interesting one for this state.

[Torie]

Here is the number I did on Kaptur, in Kapturville; cruel really.

[Nichlemn]

It's not at all obvious how aggressive a gerrymander should be. It's certainly not as simple as "draw a map that will be safe for the whole decade".

In good years for the GOP, Torie's map would likely be 13-3. In particularly bad years, it could easily be 3-13. But that doesn't tell us anything in and of itself, because we haven't put a value on an additional GOP Congressman as a function of how many seats the GOP holds. If you think it's important to have a strong "buffer" against Democratic waves in order to reduce what a disunified Democratic Congress could do (e.g. pass ObamaCare),  then you'd weight this highly. However, perhaps you would prefer to weaken this in exchange for an additional GOP House member in GOP waves, which could potentially be enough to pass a controversial bill or override a veto.

Neutral-ish years (where control of the House is at stake) are also tricky. It depends on how much variance in the Congressional vote is determined by PVI. Currently, this appears to be on the rise, but there is nonetheless still a good chance that Democrats could win in Republican-leaning district otherwise neutral years. Conceding a seat to shore up all other districts would reduce these chances, but it should do so by more than one expected seat.      

This paper on optimal gerrymandering may be helpful for mappers (warning: math).

[Torie]

I am pretty confident now that the GOP can safely hold the Dems to 3 seats in Ohio. I have mapped it out. By the way, after some further massaging, OH-16 in its Cuyahoga portion, about 200,000 voters, is close to even in its Obama-McCain numbers. The partisan numbers for the entirety of OH-16 are about spot on, and should be quite safe for the Pubbie. We broke through the GOP +4% PVI barrier (close to 5 now that Wayne County faxed me the 2008 precinct numbers so I was not constrained to having to interpolate from the 2010 precinct numbers, plus I missed the town of Rittman, now added, which was worth about 25 basis points to the cause, and had OH-09's Parma precincts in the OH-16 totals by mistake, and excising them added another 25 basis points), which is the goal. Sutton should move on to other work; he probably will not have a chance. So the twin termination of Sutton and Kucinich is a done deal, as long as you go for the max (yes, you have to have erose lines; deal with it, and it will happen). Now I am mapping out the attack on Columbus. I have carved out the max Pubbie areas to append to the four CD's which will do the quad chop on Columbus. This map I suspect will be pretty air tight. Stay tuned.

As a lagniappe, here is what I think is my final for OH-16. It's just beautiful, perfect!  I spent a lot of time on it, and it paid off I think.  And notice that how it ends up looking square. That is important. I massage stuff, to make it seem like this is the map that should be drawn, following county lines meticulously (unless it is necessary not to, to get the numbers where I want them, unless of course it is a Dem pack CD! Or the need to spread the Pubbie PVI just right requires a bichop or trichop, or there is no other way to get the partisan numbers into the sweet spot).

I had to do a number on Toledo to get there, because I wanted to get about fifteen 60% plus Obama precincts out of OH-16, and to do that, I needed to cut into Toledo some more vis a vis OH-09. So looking more closely, I found that if you stab trough a heavy Omaba precinct on Toledo's south side, on the other side of it is this linear line of GOP plus PVI precincts or close to it, running almost all the way to the Lucas County line to the east. So now Toledo has been stabbed; it's dead.

One other minor detail. Kaptur has lost so many precincts in Lucas, that I wonder if Sutton will challenge her in a primary. The center of gravity of OH-09 is not really in Lucas County anymore. It is more Cuyahoga/Lorain oriented. I just stripped Lucas County to death. The key might be the Dem precincts in OH-09 in Lorain County;will they go to Sutton or Kaptur? It would be a delightful bonus if Kaptur is tanked. I can't think of one public issue as to which I agree with her. It is pretty much the null set.

By the way, notice the huge turnout! Ohio was viewed as close to ground zero in 2008, along with a couple of other states, and both parties really pushed the numbers up hard. Interesting.

[Brittain33]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

[Torie]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

This is the best we can do for him. Every precinct, every precinct, has been picked to max his GOP numbers (subject to  his CD not interfering with the larger scheme of leashing the Dems to 3 CD's in Ohio). I think it should be enough to scare away a serious Dem predator. Oh wait, I have not included OH-16's portion of Lorain County into the stats yet! My bad! Stay tuned.

[Bacon King]

Torie, are you sending the maps you make to the people that decide redistricting, at all?

[krazen1211]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

I have to believe Renacci would be in trouble against a Cuyahoga democrat (not Kucinich!) under that map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

I have to believe Renacci would be in trouble against a Cuyahoga democrat (not Kucinich!) under that map.

Without question, in fact, I could  even see Renacci losing in 2012 in the district that map gives him.

[Torie]

Torie, are you sending the maps you make to the people that decide redistricting, at all?

Yes, that is the intent. I have been so busy lately with my real estate projects and the WSJ article thing, that I have not yet submitted any. The first one to submit is Indiana, which is in final form using the census numbers. For PA, I was hoping for partisan numbers to be entered into the Bradlee software, to update my map with the census numbers. But that one is a bear. The only CD I have updated is of course my signature one, mentioned in the WSJ article, PA-14. Wisconsin is finished too, but I am not sure I have the final census numbers, or just the updated ACS numbers or whatever it's called. Ditto for Michigan. It will be interesting to see how close the maps adopted are to mine. I suspect they will be pretty close!  The big imponderable is how to do the Columbus chop in Ohio. That will take a lot of thought - and sensitivity.

And I am pretty good at getting folks to listen to me. I am very pushy!

[Torie]

Well guys, that is fine if you think Renacci will be bagged. Hopefully you will be successful in persuading the Dems to dump several million into OH-16 trying. Go for it!  In the meantime, notice that I have OH-16's GOP PVI almost up to 5 now; +4.92% to be exact.

Oh, and OH-11 clocks in at 84% Obama. In fact, there are about 10 precincts in Cleveland  where McCain got zero votes, zip, nada, nothing.  And these are real precincts of some size (you know like 592 Obama, 0 McCain sort of thing). You would thing at least a voter or two, would just have punched the wrong box by mistake, but no they didn't. Sad.

In any event, with any luck the 3 Dem pack CD's will hit 70% or maybe even exceed it, and that would be a beautiful thing.

Here is my latest innovation in matrix charting. The key number to look at is the bolded one in the bottom right hand corner. As we draw the CD's, probably in the order that I listed them going forward, that number will more and more represent the GOP PVI for it's quad chop of Columbus. It would be nice by the time we get down to the four quad chop CD's if that number were around a 5% GOP PVI, with 5.5% or even 6.0% just that much better. The next CD to do the calculations on is OH-14, which I suspect will have a GOP of  2%-3% or so perhaps [it is GOP PVI +4.01%], pushing the number in the lower right hand corner up a tad, and then of course it will go up to the zone it will more or less stay in, after the numbers from the two remaining Dem pack CD's, OH-13 and OH-09, are calculated. It should be interesting. This will give us close to the final answer as to the prudence of the GOP's apparently planned quad chop of Columbus.

[Torie]

The final GOP PVI with which to beef up OH-01 and effect the quad chop of Columbus is GOP +6.7%. Not bad - not bad at all. The GOP plan is going to work!  

And now OH-10 is tentatively completed, as I dump into it the most marginal counties as it approaches the "Big C,"  saving the most heavily Pubbie zones for the task ahead.

[Brittain33]

Do you have 2004 Bush/Kerry numbers for your OH-6? Four of those counties swung away from the Dems between 2004 and 2008, and the Obama Presidential numbers in Appalachia (which the non-Canton parts of the district are) don't correlate well with congressional voting.

[Torie]

Do you have 2004 Bush/Kerry numbers for your OH-6? Four of those counties swung away from the Dems between 2004 and 2008, and the Obama Presidential numbers in Appalachia (which the non-Canton parts of the district are) don't correlate well with congressional voting.

I don't, but they would be easy to generate, since OH-10 is mostly whole counties (unusual for me I know).  But the Charlie Cook PVI for the old OH-18 was +7 GOP for 2008, and +15 GOP for 2004, so the swing against McCain was 8 points versus 5 for the nation, and my version of OH-10 takes in territory that is not all that different from the old OH-18.  It could be Pubbied up a bit more, by taking in the south central Ohio white zone (in lieu of Ross and Pike Counties, but I might want that white territory for other purposes, when I play my games with the Cincinnati area. What to do about that Schmidt woman is going to be a headache. Is there any way to get her to retire I wonder?  She is crimping my act a bit, and I am casting covetous eyes on some of her suburban Cincy territory.

[minionofmidas]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

Johnson is considered pretty weak from what I understand.

[Torie]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

OH-16 cannot get any more Pubbie - period. It's boxed. Well, I suppose you could do something crazy, and have OH-05 go into Cuyahoga to grab some of OH-16's precincts in the south central zone of Cuyahoga, and some of Rennaci's home county of Medina, and than have OH-16 grab the rest of Wayne, and steal Gibbs' home county of Holmes (his CD is my OH-10), but that is just not happening. If Renacci loses, some Pubbie down the road will probably take out Sutton. And while Sutton is in, he will have to vote a lot like Altmire, or he will be bagged in short order. So don't worry, be happy. All is well with the world. This game is about affecting public policy, as much as GOP numbers, and this gets the job done I think.

Pubbieing up OH-16 also degrades some of the Pubbie muscle tone I need for the karate chop on Columbus, and I am very protective of that muscle tone - very protective. I want the quad chop CD's to have GOP PVI's of 6+, and I mean to get there.

[Torie]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

[Brittain33]

Do you have 2004 Bush/Kerry numbers for your OH-6? Four of those counties swung away from the Dems between 2004 and 2008, and the Obama Presidential numbers in Appalachia (which the non-Canton parts of the district are) don't correlate well with congressional voting.

I don't, but they would be easy to generate, since OH-10 is mostly whole counties (unusual for me I know). 

I was thinking of OH-6, the former Strickland/Wilson district with those four counties along the Ohio river that swung against the Dems--the former Space district is beyond my expectations for a Dem to pick-up.

[minionofmidas]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

[Brittain33]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

[Torie]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County. 

[Brittain33]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County.  

Ok, and if these areas swung Republican in 2008 in common with other Appalachian-steel areas, what are the implications for the viability of a 13-3 map based on this district's PVI being above your benchmark?

I'm going to be direct, because I want to discuss it. I find what you're doing to be amazing as a thought experiment to pack Dems in the smallest number of districts and redistribute the remaining territory along a somewhat arbitrary line of "safety." I think the maps are beautiful illustrations of what can be done with data. But no real map is going to go to this extent, no matter how seriously people take Republican leadership, no matter how many arms Boehner twists.

It's not that I'm biased as a Dem or that I lack balls or whatever, or I fail to appreciate why this year is different and why Republicans simply must do it. This is just not the map that people draw. I don't see anything in Pennsylvania or even Maryland that looks as attenuated and erose as the lines here, doing multiple one-precinct isthmuses to link groups of white voters and splitting municipalities in many places. I also don't see Republican legislators giving up coherent blocks of geography to represent amorphous districts designed with PVI in mind first. I think too many legislators share the common revulsion with extreme gerrymandering that strikes on sight that most of us have outgrown. Most of all, I don't think Republicans are going to draw themselves districts that are as close to the margins as OH-10 and OH-6 in your map, no matter what argument you can present, because they don't want to be at risk in good years or in bad years, and a bad year would wipe out your Republican delegation like Hamlet's family in Act V.

I believe you are coming up with the solution that needs to be done to create a hypothetical "13-3" map. And that is why I believe there will be no 13-3 map in Ohio.

[Torie]

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

Hey, where does Mrs. Sutton live again? Was it west suburban Akron?  I tell you what I'm going to do if that is so - I will move her to OH-13 (heck she already may have been put there, but I doubt that she lives in the rattier burbs of Akron, much less Akron itself), and she can run against Ryan! How about that?