Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 02, 2014, 02:03:07 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  US House Redistricting: Ohio
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 ... 37 Print
Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Ohio  (Read 48961 times)
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #250 on: March 25, 2011, 08:23:07 pm »
Ignore

Thanks guys for the generous words. I appreciate it.
Logged

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #251 on: March 25, 2011, 10:55:01 pm »
Ignore

Here is my first cut at the Cincy-Dayton conurbation carve up. I lighted the colors up (and changed them in fact) so that you can see more clearly the game of musical chairs (the territory CD's gained or lost is in a slightly different shade from the territory that does not switch into another CD).

OH-01, Chabot's CD, is at a -2% GOP PVI, and needs help, but all the help he can get since he is trapped by Boehner's CD, Boehner's home, and being in the SE corner of the state, is to simply expand into the most GOP territory within reach, where in which he will perform well to boot vis a vis the partisan baseline hopefully. So he gets another 122,000 folks by grabbing the most GOP and highest SES voters in the NE corner of Hamilton County, and then moves into Warren's SW corner for even more Pubbie, albeit lower SES voters. He does not absorb one Dem town in Hamilton that is about a third black. Boehner's OH-08 dips down from his hometown in the SE corner of Butler to pick it up. I would like to get Chabot to at least a +4% GOP PVI, with 5% being better.

Schmidt in her OH-02 CD, having dropped a lot of prime precincts to Chabot, and dropping some more in Warren to Turner in OH-03 (see below), has thus taken a big hit to her +13% GOP PVI CD. She replaces the lost territory with solid GOP Highland County, somewhat along the lines of those Hamilton County precincts that she lost perhaps, although far less in population, but far short of the uber GOP precincts that she lost in Warren. The shortfall is taken up by her expanding to the east, taking in a mixed bag of marginal, marginal GOP, and solidly GOP, but not uber GOP counties (well she has all but a couple of precincts in smallish Jackson County added, with a 60% McCain percentage, so Jackson just crossed the finish line into the uber GOP zone). I would be happy if she ended up with about a +7% GOP PVI.

Turner (OH-03) picks up about half or a bit more of the Dem precincts that Boehner sucked up in Montgomery County in his OH-08, so his already thin GOP PVI of 4% drops some more, and then he loses solidly, albeit smallish Highland County to boot. But he gets another slug of uber GOP Warren. Will it be enough? I hope so. I would like to see Turner clock in with a 5% GOP PVI.  

And then we have Mr. Boehner in OH-08. He starts out with a GOP PVI of 15%. Losing those Dem precincts in Montgomery, probably pushes it up to 16%, maybe a tad higher. But he loses about 25 or so very uber GOP precincts in Mercer (his share of the county was about 2/3 and the whole county went 72% for McCain (I think it is heavily Mennonite, and I wish JS were here to confirm that), so maybe he is down close to 13-14% or so. And then he takes in that Dem town in Hamilton. Now he is down to 12.5% maybe, maybe a tad lower. And then he takes in almost all of marginal Clark County (except for a few what are probably solidly GOP precincts at its eastern extremity, but one can be surprised), with 65,000 voters, about 20% of his new CD, and maybe his PVI drops to about 9-10 or so - still a tad "too high," but frankly, there are just not any other Dem or "Demish" precincts for him to take in that given all the considerations, that are actually available within reach anyway.

It will be interesting to see how close I am in my guesses about the PVI's of these CD's. I suspect I am within about 1 to 1.5 points of guessing it right. I have played this game enough to sort of just "know" as it were. But I could be surprised. Stay tuned.

Oh yes, I suspect that the remaining GOP PVI for the 4 Columbus chop CD's will still be around 7 or so. At least I hope that is the case!

« Last Edit: March 26, 2011, 01:10:38 am by Torie »Logged

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #252 on: March 25, 2011, 11:23:34 pm »
Ignore

Oh, and here is the whole map (or most of it), lightened up, to see how I moved the pawns on the chessboard, in case anyone might be interested in seeing the "big picture." Yes I know, who could be as fascinated as I am by all of this?. Nobody of course!  Smiley But I don't mind; if I get joy in doing it, that is its own reward - and I do! Smiley

« Last Edit: March 25, 2011, 11:29:42 pm by Torie »Logged

Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15824
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #253 on: March 25, 2011, 11:28:04 pm »
Ignore

Very impressive. You've definitely put a huge amount of effort into this.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
I, for one, fully support the increasing gifification of the Atlas.
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #254 on: March 26, 2011, 05:13:36 am »
Ignore

You're right about Johnson getting areas around Canton, of course. Forgot to take that into account. (And for the last time: Betty Sutton takes the female third person personal pronoun. Tongue )
It does make me wonder, but this is really for after your map is finished: What's the safest map that R's can draw themselves, chopping Columbus but throwing one of their northern congresscritters under the bus and eliminating only one of Sutton and Kucinich (I presume that would end up drawing them into a single district together)? As I said, for afterwards. Please finish this. Smiley I ask mostly because it does seem quite possible that the three northern D's plan would be rejected as too dangerous, if this is the best you can do.
(The Columbus chop is a necessary condition to any 4 northern Ds map, obviously - the GOP is not going to voluntarily give up both abolished seats.)

Under any strong 4 district plan, the 4th district has to go in Columbus, which is both more Democratic and faster growing than any 4th district in the North would be.

Which just means that any map that all the R's intended as winning are actually happy with and safe (barring events) under, is an 11-5 map (or rather 10-5-1 taking account of Chabot's. 9-5-2 after Turner retires, should that happen during the decade. Unless Torie pubbied those up. Oh yeah, 8-5-3 if LaTourette retires, though I see no reason why he should.). Which, however, is exceedingly unlikely to actually happen - as that would mean Republicans abolishing two Republican districts.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2011, 05:19:44 am by new, improved Lewis Trondheim »Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #255 on: March 26, 2011, 05:16:35 am »
Ignore

A safe seat is a seat that can be won comfortably in a bad year for the party in question; any other definition is stretching the language beyond meaningful use, I think.

That may be a bit of a strong requirement. Back in 2002, would there have been any reason to call ID-01 or even NY-29 anything but safe Republican? And yet they both went Democratic in 2008.
Note, "can".
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5783


View Profile
« Reply #256 on: March 26, 2011, 09:38:56 am »
Ignore

Which just means that any map that all the R's intended as winning are actually happy with and safe (barring events) under, is an 11-5 map (or rather 10-5-1 taking account of Chabot's. 9-5-2 after Turner retires, should that happen during the decade. Unless Torie pubbied those up. Oh yeah, 8-5-3 if LaTourette retires, though I see no reason why he should.). Which, however, is exceedingly unlikely to actually happen - as that would mean Republicans abolishing two Republican districts.


True, you do have to gamble somewhere with a 12-4 map. That means leaving Johnson's district intact and hoping he can hold it; although the removal of Athens would help.

You're correct about Latuorette, but not so much about Chabot and Turner. Both of them can be put into a district that has at least a Republican tilt simply by spreading out Mean Jean's GOP strength a bit, and Boehner chipping in a point or two here and there. On my map in post 154 I put them in 51/53% McCain districts; it could be 53/53 if Mr. Boehner would consent to grabbing some Hamilton County blacks.

The good thing about Ohio is that they have a couple heavy hitters in Congress; I expect Boehner's team to be actually dictating the maps, just as Cantor's team did in Virginia and Hastert's team in Illinois 10 years ago. So, they won't have to worry about much about 'local' concerns about undesirable maps, unlike, say, Arkansas and Louisiana, the latter of which is obviously struggling with intraparty bickering. But if Louisiana had a committee chairman somewhere, there would be an obvious need to protect his district, and the rest of the map would fall into place.

The good thing is that Sutton and Kucinich have essentially no cross-party appeal. Sutton, for example, always loses that strip of territory in southern Cuyahoga County, even in 2006.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2011, 09:46:09 am by krazen1211 »Logged
Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #257 on: March 26, 2011, 09:55:16 am »
Ignore


And then we have Mr. Boehner in OH-08. He starts out with a GOP PVI of 15%. Losing those Dem precincts in Montgomery, probably pushes it up to 16%, maybe a tad higher. But he loses about 25 or so very uber GOP precincts in Mercer (his share of the county was about 2/3 and the whole county went 72% for McCain (I think it is heavily Mennonite, and I wish JS were here to confirm that), so maybe he is down close to 13-14% or so.

Mercer County (and Putnam County) was settled by German Catholic immigrants, so it is very Catholic (like 70% or so) not Mennonite. You might not think of Catholics as a Republican group but German Catholics in rural parts of NW Ohio vote pretty much the same as the Mennonites.
Logged

Ten in Roman Numerals
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8860
United States


View Profile
« Reply #258 on: March 26, 2011, 11:43:56 am »
Ignore

Which just means that any map that all the R's intended as winning are actually happy with and safe (barring events) under, is an 11-5 map (or rather 10-5-1 taking account of Chabot's. 9-5-2 after Turner retires, should that happen during the decade. Unless Torie pubbied those up. Oh yeah, 8-5-3 if LaTourette retires, though I see no reason why he should.). Which, however, is exceedingly unlikely to actually happen - as that would mean Republicans abolishing two Republican districts.


True, you do have to gamble somewhere with a 12-4 map. That means leaving Johnson's district intact and hoping he can hold it; although the removal of Athens would help.

You're correct about Latuorette, but not so much about Chabot and Turner. Both of them can be put into a district that has at least a Republican tilt simply by spreading out Mean Jean's GOP strength a bit, and Boehner chipping in a point or two here and there. On my map in post 154 I put them in 51/53% McCain districts; it could be 53/53 if Mr. Boehner would consent to grabbing some Hamilton County blacks.

The good thing about Ohio is that they have a couple heavy hitters in Congress; I expect Boehner's team to be actually dictating the maps, just as Cantor's team did in Virginia and Hastert's team in Illinois 10 years ago. So, they won't have to worry about much about 'local' concerns about undesirable maps, unlike, say, Arkansas and Louisiana, the latter of which is obviously struggling with intraparty bickering. But if Louisiana had a committee chairman somewhere, there would be an obvious need to protect his district, and the rest of the map would fall into place.

The good thing is that Sutton and Kucinich have essentially no cross-party appeal. Sutton, for example, always loses that strip of territory in southern Cuyahoga County, even in 2006.

Hastert didn't dictate the map in IL, that was a prime example of how politicians sometimes put their interests ahead of their party's interests.  Chicago Democrats were fine with a Republican incumbent protection plan that took away one non-Chicago Democratic seat because things were less polarized which meant that they gained some influence from having Hastert as Speaker.  Also, I doubt Cantor dictated the Virginia map, as he wasn't a top member of the House Republican leadership yet.  Remember, in PA they didn't go with the map national Republicans originally wanted, that could certainly happen here. 

I also suspect Schmidt would've lost to Hackett in the district Torie's drawn for her.
Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed

krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5783


View Profile
« Reply #259 on: March 26, 2011, 11:47:56 am »
Ignore

Hastert didn't dictate the map in IL, that was a prime example of how politicians sometimes put their interests ahead of their party's interests.  Chicago Democrats were fine with a Republican incumbent protection plan that took away one non-Chicago Democratic seat because things were less polarized which meant that they gained some influence from having Hastert as Speaker.  Also, I doubt Cantor dictated the Virginia map, as he wasn't a top member of the House Republican leadership yet.  Remember, in PA they didn't go with the map national Republicans originally wanted, that could certainly happen here.  

I also suspect Schmidt would've lost to Hackett in the district Torie's drawn for her.


I didn't mean the 2000 Virginia map.

Cantor, Goodlatte, and Connolly pretty much wrote the upcoming Virginia map, not the 2000 one. At least that's what reports are saying.

As far as 2000 Illinois is concerned, you're right about the reason Chicago Democrats did it, but as I understand it Hastert was heavily involved in the actual lines. The 8th district for instance was designed to protect Phil Crane although he lost it anyway, even while W was winning there easily.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2011, 11:49:34 am by krazen1211 »Logged
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12793


View Profile
« Reply #260 on: March 26, 2011, 12:50:53 pm »
Ignore

The 8th district for instance was designed to protect Phil Crane although he lost it anyway, even while W was winning there easily.

I remember it as the 8th shedding some safe Republican areas to the 10th to shore up Mark Kirk, but it backfired because Crane was such a weak incumbent.
Logged
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8577


View Profile
« Reply #261 on: March 27, 2011, 12:49:09 am »

Hastert didn't dictate the map in IL, that was a prime example of how politicians sometimes put their interests ahead of their party's interests.  Chicago Democrats were fine with a Republican incumbent protection plan that took away one non-Chicago Democratic seat because things were less polarized which meant that they gained some influence from having Hastert as Speaker.  Also, I doubt Cantor dictated the Virginia map, as he wasn't a top member of the House Republican leadership yet.  Remember, in PA they didn't go with the map national Republicans originally wanted, that could certainly happen here.  

I also suspect Schmidt would've lost to Hackett in the district Torie's drawn for her.


I didn't mean the 2000 Virginia map.

Cantor, Goodlatte, and Connolly pretty much wrote the upcoming Virginia map, not the 2000 one. At least that's what reports are saying.

As far as 2000 Illinois is concerned, you're right about the reason Chicago Democrats did it, but as I understand it Hastert was heavily involved in the actual lines. The 8th district for instance was designed to protect Phil Crane although he lost it anyway, even while W was winning there easily.

Hastert's staff did draw the 2000 map for IL in consultation with Cong. Dan Lipinski. The Dems got the map they wanted in Cook and protected Cong. Evans in IL-17, but conceded the rest of the state. The legislature didn't necessarily like it, but the Speakership matters a lot. It will be interesting to see what role it plays in OH this year.
Logged


Lunar Eclipse of April 15, 2014 with the star Spica.
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #262 on: March 27, 2011, 04:10:43 am »
Ignore



Logged

Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13449


View Profile
« Reply #263 on: March 27, 2011, 04:18:17 am »
Ignore

Wow this is coming together very well. I'm very impressed. Smiley Looks like you have the numbers needed to finish the deed. Of course it could also lead to a 13-3 map in the wrong direction. Tongue But no, you have protected the pubbies against that pretty well. Let's see if the legislature does just as good of a job.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #264 on: March 27, 2011, 04:55:10 pm »
Ignore

Wow this is coming together very well. I'm very impressed. Smiley Looks like you have the numbers needed to finish the deed. Of course it could also lead to a 13-3 map in the wrong direction. Tongue But no, you have protected the pubbies against that pretty well. Let's see if the legislature does just as good of a job.

Thank you. They will have my map of course, and I will defend it to the death!  Smiley  All my maps will be pushed.

The next chapter is to map out how the four CD's will chop Columbus. I will post a map of how I plan to chop Columbus because that is quite a fascinating task to do it right. It is tricky, because there is a traffic jam as to where the incumbents live, with 3 within about 5 miles of each other. Tiberi and Stivers (with Stivers in a heavily Dem precinct, living in a charming old house), are within about 15 blocks of each other. So how to do it right, without giving incumbents entirely new CD's. It is what we call in the trade a "balancing act."

Turner in Montgomery creates a blockade that does not allow Boenher to transfer some of his Pubbie strength into the Columbus chop CD's, because to do that, he would have to cut deep into Montgomery, and then Turner into Greene and on into Franklin to join in the chop , but that can't happen, because the incumbent in OH-07 lives just across the Montgomery County line to the east, and Turner's CD is not going to be chopped that way, and on and on. Schmidt had to suck up 5 black wards in Columbus to get Chabot's numbers up to where they needed to be. So her share of Hamilton is now about 2-1 Dem.

And oh yes: Sutton and Bocerri's (sp) homes are now both in OH-13, to create another impediment in challenging the Pubbie in OH-16.  

But the most important thing, is that I think I got my color scheme about the best that it can be now. Map decor is important too!  Smiley

The map below depicts the precinct switch outs between OH-01 and OH-02 in Hamilton.

« Last Edit: March 27, 2011, 05:10:44 pm by Torie »Logged

Ten in Roman Numerals
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8860
United States


View Profile
« Reply #265 on: March 27, 2011, 05:09:05 pm »
Ignore

Wow this is coming together very well. I'm very impressed. Smiley Looks like you have the numbers needed to finish the deed. Of course it could also lead to a 13-3 map in the wrong direction. Tongue But no, you have protected the pubbies against that pretty well. Let's see if the legislature does just as good of a job.

Thank you. They will have my map of course, and I will defend it to the death!  Smiley  All my maps will be pushed.

The next chapter is to map out how the four CD's will chop Columbus. I will post a map of how I plan to chop Columbus because that is quite a fascinating task to do it right. It is tricky, because there is a traffic jam as to where the incumbents live, with 3 within about 5 miles of each other. Tiberi and Stivers (with Stivers in a heavily Dem precinct, living in a charming old house), are within about 15 blocks of each other. So how to do it right, without giving incumbents entirely new CD's. It is what we call in the trade a "balancing act."

Turner in Montgomery creates a blockade that does not allow Boenher to transfer some of his Pubbie strength into the Columbus chop CD's, because to do that, he would have to cut deep into Montgomery, and then Turner into Greene and on into Franklin to join in the chop , but that can't happen, because the incumbent in OH-07 lives just across the Montgomery County line to the east, and Turner's CD is not going to be chopped that way, and on and on. Schmidt had to suck up 5 black wards in Columbus to get Chabot's numbers up to where they needed to be. So her share of Hamilton is now about 2-1 Dem.

And oh yes: Sutton and Bocerri's (sp) homes are now both in OH-13, to create another impediment in challenging the Pubbie in OH-16.  

But the most important thing, is that I think I got my color scheme about the best that it can be now. Map decor is important too!  Smiley

Keep in mind that Tiberi, Stivers, and to a lesser degree Austria will probably want a suburban GOP district, not one that takes in large swaths of rural territory. 
Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #266 on: March 27, 2011, 05:29:11 pm »
Ignore

Yes, indeed, but even more important than that, is that they would like their Pubbie numbers up. As much as possible, Stivers and Tiberi will keep their territory in Franklin that they actually do well in. But there will need to be some shift, because Stivers needs to punch north to make it all work. Walls are created by where the Dem precincts are, and where Tiberi and Stivers live.

Anyway, here is the story of what I did to OH-03. Turner took about two thirds of the remaining Dem precincts in Montgomery he did not have before from OH-08 (maybe 2-1 Dem or so), and lost GOP Highland County, but took most of the rest of Warren, which gave him a net gain about about 2.5 Pubbie points. Boehner losing those Montgomery precincts allowed him to such up all of Clark County, which was his job in preparation for the Columbus chop by the four CD's on deck to effect that deed.

Logged

Ten in Roman Numerals
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8860
United States


View Profile
« Reply #267 on: March 27, 2011, 06:46:15 pm »
Ignore

Yes, indeed, but even more important than that, is that they would like their Pubbie numbers up. As much as possible, Stivers and Tiberi will keep their territory in Franklin that they actually do well in. But there will need to be some shift, because Stivers needs to punch north to make it all work. Walls are created by where the Dem precincts are, and where Tiberi and Stivers live.

Anyway, here is the story of what I did to OH-03. Turner took about two thirds of the remaining Dem precincts in Montgomery he did not have before from OH-08 (maybe 2-1 Dem or so), and lost GOP Highland County, but took most of the rest of Warren, which gave him a net gain about about 2.5 Pubbie points. Boehner losing those Montgomery precincts allowed him to such up all of Clark County, which was his job in preparation for the Columbus chop by the four CD's on deck to effect that deed.



I think you're wasting a lot of Republicans shoring up Turner, he'll be around for a while (probably until the next redistricting).  Schmidt may have problems in the district you're drawing, though I'll comment more about that when I see the final form of the district.  I still think Renacci and Johnson's districts go through more trouble to protect those two than most Ohio Republicans are willing to do (especially the Cleveland portion of Renacci's district).  I could see Stivers expanding north, but I'm not sure he'll want to (he might be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he gets to heavily Republican a district).  Tiberi will probably want a suburban district, but that's easier, I suspect.  Also, Austria has solid connections in the legislature, and will probably get whatever district he wants, even if it costs several Republican points (something that I'm sure you know could be a major problem for Republicans representing part of Franklin County).  Also, I wonder (though I'd need to see the Republican PVI) if Gibbs might now be vulnerable, since Charlie Wilson said he'd run if he got a district he thought was winnable.  Gibbs is on the weaker end of generic R, hardly a top-tier candidate.  Wilson is, as I understand it, a very good fit for the Ohio River/Appalachia counties and the district includes all of Athens and Belmont (Wilson's home base, I think) counties.  However, Chabot seems to be protected as best as can realistically be done and LaTourette should be fine until he leaves office/next redistricting.
Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #268 on: March 27, 2011, 08:05:44 pm »
Ignore

Schmidt's OH-02 CD is in final form. It won't change.

I would be interested in how you would draw the state. In any event, we have different philosophies I think. I don't care much who represents a +5% GOP CD. The Dem will either be house broken, and a moderate, or will be gone in short order. If that means means a few weak Pubbies go down the drain in the meantime, that is probably for the best. If Schmidt can't win a +9% GOP PVI CD, then good riddance to her!  

I suspect most of the maps will be drawn just about the way I drew them. I try to balance carefully the competing considerations. I doubt if Wilson will run, but it would be easy to dump his home into OH-06 by shifting a precinct or two, but I am told that Johnson is weak too. In any event, I am not going to shave down a GOP CD elsewhere to over Pubbie a CD to prop up a weak incumbent. That is just dumb in my opinion. I need each and every Pubbie I saved to make the Columbus chop reasonably safe. I am just not going to shave down the Columbus chop CD's much below a 5% GOP PVI. That would be the dumbest thing to do of all in my opinion. So I won't do it!  Tongue

Here is a map where Charlie baby has been moved to OH-06. See how easy that was? Now of course if I did this, I will get posts about how that threatens Johnson, and I need to Pubbie up that CD more with unavailable Pubbies, waving some magic wand, that does not wreak havoc elsewhere. Or maybe I will be told again that some incumbent Pubbie just needs to be affirmatively tossed to the dogs.  Maybe I need to move Wilson into Boehner's CD! Tongue  Or I will be told again that the map I am drawing which actually makes possible the GOP goals here in a reasonable way, is impossible, a claim that is clearly errant in my opinion. What I have not yet been told is how to do any of this in a more effective manner that meets any sensible objection function as to the purpose of this map - which is to influence public policy in a Pubbie direction.  Isn't that the purpose of a GOP gerrymander - the only sensible purpose?

« Last Edit: March 27, 2011, 08:10:14 pm by Torie »Logged

Ten in Roman Numerals
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8860
United States


View Profile
« Reply #269 on: March 27, 2011, 08:34:21 pm »
Ignore

Schmidt's OH-02 CD is in final form. It won't change.

I would be interested in how you would draw the state. In any event, we have different philosophies I think. I don't care much who represents a +5% GOP CD. The Dem will either be house broken, and a moderate, or will be gone in short order. If that means means a few weak Pubbies go down the drain in the meantime, that is probably for the best. If Schmidt can't win a +9% GOP PVI CD, then good riddance to her!  

I suspect most of the maps will be drawn just about the way I drew them. I try to balance carefully the competing considerations. I doubt if Wilson will run, but it would be easy to dump his home into OH-06 by shifting a precinct or two, but I am told that Johnson is weak too. In any event, I am not going to shave down a GOP CD elsewhere to over Pubbie a CD to prop up a weak incumbent. That is just dumb in my opinion. I need each and every Pubbie I saved to make the Columbus chop reasonably safe. I am just not going to shave down the Columbus chop CD's much below a 5% GOP PVI. That would be the dumbest thing to do of all in my opinion. So I won't do it!  Tongue

Here is a map where Charlie baby has been moved to OH-06. See how easy that was? Now of course if I did this, I will get posts about how that threatens Johnson, and I need to Pubbie up that CD more with unavailable Pubbies, waving some magic wand, that does not wreak havoc elsewhere. Or maybe I will be told again that some incumbent Pubbie just needs to be affirmatively tossed to the dogs.  Maybe I need to move Wilson into Boehner's CD! Tongue  Or I will be told again that the map I am drawing which actually makes possible the GOP goals here in a reasonable way, is impossible, a claim that is clearly errant in my opinion. What I have not yet been told is how to do any of this in a more effective manner that meets any sensible objection function as to the purpose of this map - which is to influence public policy in a Pubbie direction.  Isn't that the purpose of a GOP gerrymander - the only sensible purpose?



I'm planning to put up my own map over the summer (I would do this sooner, but college work comes first!).  I actually think that Republicans would be better off if Schmidt lost (I view it as sort of like CO-4, now Republicans won't have to spend money on that seat in the foreseeable future), but that's beside the point.  While I agree with you that the only sensible purpose of a GOP-gerrymander is to move public policy in a Republican direction, I think another purpose (albeit a less sensible one) will inevitably be to accommodate certain Republicans, even at the expense of the first goal (that's just the way things work, as I'm sure you know). I do think Republicans would be better off with Wilson in Johnson's CD, as Wilson would have no cross-over appeal in the Stark county part of the district, whereas he would in many parts of Gibb's district.  However, I certainly hope you don't think I am only criticizing, without an alternative, I just don't have time at the moment to put together a whole map (though I intend to over the summer).  Don't get me wrong, this map is a work of art, and it is more or less the best way to do a 13-3 map, but I don't think that is the only factor to take into account when making maps, even gerrymanders.  
« Last Edit: March 27, 2011, 08:41:27 pm by Mr. X »Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed

Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27214
United States


View Profile
« Reply #270 on: March 27, 2011, 08:41:11 pm »
Ignore

OK, I will make the adjustment. It does not move the partisan numbers at all. Drawing an intelligent map takes a lot of work, as I assume you know.

These fly by maps just won't cut it. Smiley How much time do you think I spent on my Ohio map? 
And the thing is, when I sell them, I will I think be able to defend them in detail, and if some pet Pubbie wants special handling, that f's things up,  I will make waves about it. I intend to cause trouble on this one, if need be. Tongue
Logged

Ten in Roman Numerals
jdb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8860
United States


View Profile
« Reply #271 on: March 27, 2011, 08:53:15 pm »
Ignore

OK, I will make the adjustment. It does not move the partisan numbers at all. Drawing an intelligent map takes a lot of work, as I assume you know.

These fly by maps just won't cut it. Smiley How much time do you think I spent on my Ohio map?  
And the thing is, when I sell them, I will I think be able to defend them in detail, and if some pet Pubbie wants special handling, that f's things up,  I will make waves about it. I intend to cause trouble on this one, if need be. Tongue

Fair enough Smiley  To answer your question, if I had to guess how much time was spent on this, I would guess somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 weeks (off the top of my head guess) at the least.  However, I do agree that it can screw up a great map when incumbents aren't willing to "take one for the team."
Logged

Cool Grin Tongue Smiley Sad Huh Angry Wink Roll Eyes Undecided Cheesy
Shocked Lips sealed

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #272 on: March 27, 2011, 11:55:14 pm »
Ignore

It's important to keep in mind what type of Democrat might win one of the 13 R districts when we are discussing this type of thing. When the House was debating the healthcare bill and Ohio had 10 Democratic and 8 Republican congressmen, 5 (6 if you count Kucinich) of those 10 gave the Democratic Leadership quite a headache holding out until the 11th hour. Driehaus, Boccieri, Wilson, Space, and Kaptur refused to say how they would vote until the very end. Kaptur even waited until an hour before the vote. All of them ended up voting for it but they certainly did major damage to the Democrats by making a scene. Other than Kaptur, the rest of these names give you a good picture of the type of Democrat who would win most of the 13 "R" districts if things went horribly wrong for the Republicans.

Also notice the absence of the other Democrat who lost reelection, Mary Jo Kilroy of Columbus. When the map is drawn it is more important to keep the Democrats out of Columbus than Cincinnati or SE Ohio or the Canton/Medina area because in all likelihood a Democratic rep from Columbus will be a straight-down-the-line liberal. I'd certainly like to see a 13-3 map hold, but if Charlie Wilson or some other Appalachan Democrat takes out Johnson or Gibbs it would still be better for the Republicans than a Democrat in Columbus.

A couple months ago, I had tried to draw an Ohio map to preserve all incumbent Republicans (though I lacked precinct data for everything other than Cuyahoga County so it was a rough guess at best) and wound up with something rather similar to what Torie is doing. Obviously I did a few things different, like I put Athens County in Schmidtís district and I certainly did not take as much care around Cleveland to make OH 16 a true Republican district rather than a slightly lean R. But when it comes down to it, I think some close variation to what Torie is drawing is the best possible map for the Ohio Republican Party.
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #273 on: March 28, 2011, 12:50:45 am »
Ignore

Look at it district by district:
Cincinnati Area:
1. Chabot- all you can do is switch which parts of Hamilton County you take in since Schmidt and Boehner block you from going east or northeast. You donít want to go straight north either because the next town you cross in Butler County is the college town of Oxford. I donít have precinct data, but I doubt that would help Chabot.

2. Schmidt- you need to swallow up as many Democratic areas as you can with this district to make the rest of the state easier. You canít really go west or north so you have to go east. Like I said before, I drew Athens into this district but the way Torie drew it is fine. You give Schmidt a normally safe district and if she canít hold it thatís her problem. I canít imagine what sort of Democrat could hold this seat for more than one term anyways.

3. Turner- his district stays pretty much the same and he will be set until he wants to retire. As long as you draw something reasonable (no Columbus to Springfield to Dayton to Cincinnati mess) the Republicans should still win an open seat.

8. Boehner- try to keep this the most heavily Republican district in the state but yet a little less excessively so than it is now. Giving him Clark County and keeping most of it the same is a good idea. I originally gave him more of Dayton but that really doesnít help since Columbus is where we want the extra Republican support. Clark is much better.
Logged

Governor TJ
TJ in Cleve
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4852
United States


View Profile
« Reply #274 on: March 28, 2011, 12:52:05 am »
Ignore

Cleveland:
11. Fudge- pack district, run it to Akron, take as many Dems as possible

10. Kucinich- eliminate his district by running Renacci up from Medina County. A lot of people donít like this but I donít really see any other way to make a 13-3 map. I guess you could run Gibbs or Latta in instead but that would just make it unnecessarily ugly.

13. Sutton- eliminate her too for the same reasons as Kucinich though her district is easier to get rid of. Lorain goes to Kaptur and the Democratic part of Akron is split into Fudge and Ryan

14. LaTourette- try not to change it too much since LaTourette is popular and completely surrounded by overwhelmingly Democratic areas. Other than tinkering around with specific precincts there isnít much to do here.

17. Ryan- I put just Akron and Youngstown here but adding in Canton and Alliance is even better. The way Torie drew it, Ryan, Sutton, and Boccieri can all have a fun 3-way primary. Maybe former rep Jim Traficant can join in now that heís out of prison (if he ever wants to be a Democrat again). It seems like every other idea I see on here does something weird like throw in Ashtabula County or some random swath of rural land. Why would the Republicans do that? My only concern with Torieís map is that the lines may be too erose looking. If thatís the case, Canton may have to go and if it does, better some coin-flip Appalachian Dem than a liberal city Dem.

16. Renacci- run this up all the way to the west side of Cleveland and be careful exactly who you put in it. When I first drew this I was much less ambitious than Torie and without the 9th district coming in, made it about 52-53% Obama without a whole lot of crazy-looking lines. But this really is the key part of a 13-3 map and by far the most sensitive to draw as it requires a Republican to represent a large chunk of Cuyahoga County and even part of the city of Cleveland. Itís a tall order but there really is no other way to protect all the Republican incumbents. If you would give up that idea, you could do just about anything with this district.
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 ... 37 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines