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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Ohio  (Read 50324 times)
Torie
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« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2010, 09:01:07 pm »
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What is the McCain margin in CD-12?  If looks weak to me.
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« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2010, 09:13:28 pm »
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BTW I have a tough time believing that map would ever stand a VRA challenge since it is largely based on diluting the black population of Columbus as much as possible.
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« Reply #27 on: November 22, 2010, 09:29:00 pm »
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What is the McCain margin in CD-12?  If looks weak to me.

Without precinct data for Franklin and Delaware Counties, I can't really tell, but McCain got around 56% in the whole counties to the east, which account for over 60% of the district's population. Delaware County is pretty uniformly Republican and voted 59% McCain. And looking at the town map on the Atlas for 2004, it appears that some of the most Republican areas of Franklin County are in the northeast corner, but the district takes in some Democratic areas of Franklin County as well. I would consider 55% McCain to be a solid, conservative estimate.
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« Reply #28 on: November 23, 2010, 09:13:42 am »
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BTW I have a tough time believing that map would ever stand a VRA challenge since it is largely based on diluting the black population of Columbus as much as possible.

I don't recall now if it is legal to slice and dice the black vote, if there is not enough of it, which if put together, would make for a majority-minority "community of interest" CD.  I think there are something like 250,000 blacks in Franklin County. Right now, if I recall, there are mostly in Tiberi's CD.  That is why I wondered about the partisan lean of CD-6 on the map above, because Tiberi's district having checked it out, takes in the northeast corner of Franklin.
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« Reply #29 on: November 24, 2010, 07:00:00 am »

BTW I have a tough time believing that map would ever stand a VRA challenge since it is largely based on diluting the black population of Columbus as much as possible.

I don't recall now if it is legal to slice and dice the black vote, if there is not enough of it, which if put together, would make for a majority-minority "community of interest" CD.  I think there are something like 250,000 blacks in Franklin County. Right now, if I recall, there are mostly in Tiberi's CD.  That is why I wondered about the partisan lean of CD-6 on the map above, because Tiberi's district having checked it out, takes in the northeast corner of Franklin.

The largest Columbus-area district that is at least 50% black has only about 340 K people with 170 K black. That is only about half the population of a CD, and under Bartlett, the state has no obligation to maximize the black vote in that district. OH has no community of interest law that applies to CDs either. So, there should be no basis to challenge the split in that map.

I drew CD 6, 7, and 12 to all be about R+1 to R+3 using 2004 voting. Without a precinct map its hard to be more precise. With more precise data CD 4 can be used to improve the R performance of the other 3 Franklin districts. In a wave D year they all would be at risk, but the goal was to maximize GOP chances and hope that the incumbents hold it in a bad year. LaTourette is an example of that type of OH incumbent in 2008.

The incoming class is 13 R - 5 D, and OH will likely lose 2 seats. To even hold 12 R after redistricting in 2012 will require quite a few swing districts with only slight GOP lean.

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« Reply #30 on: November 24, 2010, 05:14:03 pm »
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Leips has town and township returns for 2004 for many states, and that is what I used for my map of Michigan. The trick then, is to find a township map, which sometimes are hard to find. But I got lucky with Michigan. Gosh, how I live the internet. I am glad I lived long enough to enjoy it. Smiley

In any event, with these tools, map drawing is just a blast for me. I just love it, particularly if there are legal constraints. I just love trying to figure out how to circumvent them.  It is just in my nature I guess.

Of course, that won't help you for big cities. For that, absent returns, you just need to know the town. I could map LA just from my head (well, not the bit about precisely where to draw the lines to get the "right" percentages of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, particularly the former two, since what is going on on the ground is changing so rapidly as the the landscape turns "brown" from black). I mean, USC is in an Hispanic neighborhood now.  Who knew?
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« Reply #31 on: November 30, 2010, 04:31:15 pm »
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The current map is already an obscene Republican gerrymander - if they tried to make it any more Republican, they would either run afoul of the VRA or set themselves up for a big reversal if the natinonal environment changed again - which was what happened in 2008.
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« Reply #32 on: November 30, 2010, 11:17:29 pm »

The current map is already an obscene Republican gerrymander - if they tried to make it any more Republican, they would either run afoul of the VRA or set themselves up for a big reversal if the natinonal environment changed again - which was what happened in 2008.

The GOP challenge in OH is how to deal with the loss of two seats on the current map. Realistically they may have to reduce both one D and one R seat, but the remaining seats can be just as strongly drawn R as they were 10 years ago.
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« Reply #33 on: December 01, 2010, 02:02:31 am »
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The current map is already an obscene Republican gerrymander - if they tried to make it any more Republican, they would either run afoul of the VRA or set themselves up for a big reversal if the natinonal environment changed again - which was what happened in 2008.

The GOP challenge in OH is how to deal with the loss of two seats on the current map. Realistically they may have to reduce both one D and one R seat, but the remaining seats can be just as strongly drawn R as they were 10 years ago.

I think its going to be really difficult for the GOP to create a 12R-4D map that would hold for more than one or two elections.  Although the map you've put forth certainly gives the Republicans a huge advantage I think its stretching them a bit too thin in some places.  In a bad GOP year like 2006 or 2008 I could definitely see things ending up as at least 8R-8D or even 7R-9D depending on candidate quality and the number of open seats.  Although it might sting to do it, I think the Republicans would be much better served over the course of 2012-2020 to draw a safe 11-5 map and eliminate two of their incoming freshmen.
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« Reply #34 on: December 01, 2010, 03:30:08 am »
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I was just looking up where the new freshmen live, and apparently, Bill Johnson, of the 6th District, lives in, of all places, Mahoning County. That's a disaster waiting to happen. If a Republican district is to be chopped, that's the one.
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« Reply #35 on: December 01, 2010, 07:59:40 am »
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Here's my (hopefully) 12-4 Republican map:



(Damn zoom levels were uncooperative. Anyway, it should be obvious where the cut off pieces go.)

Cleveland:


Columbus:


And Cincinnati:


District 1 (Blue, Cincinnati)- Incumbent: Steve Chabot (R): The district loses its Butler County portion and gains Republican areas in northeastern Hamilton County. Should still be a fairly safe Republican seat.
District 2 (Green, Cincinnati-Athens)- Incumbent: Jean Schmidt (R): As part of the current Sixth District's removal, everything from Athens County west was added to the Second. The whole counties in this district (with Athens County being counted as whole despite a small portion being in the Seventh) voted 56.67% McCain, and 59.40% Bush in 2004.
District 3 (Purple, Dayton)- Incumbent: Michael Turner (R): Not much changed here- the district picked up more of Warren County and part of Ross County. Should be Safe Republican.
District 4 (Red, Springfield-Lima-Mansfield)- Incumbent: Jim Jordan (R): Democrats in Springfield get sunk into the Fourth rather than the Seventh.  Safe Republican.
District 5 (Yellow, Bowling Green-Ashland)- Incumbent: Bob Latta (R): This district is made slightly more Democratic by pushing further into the Toledo suburbs. Should still be safe Republican.
District 6 (Teal, Youngstown-Akron)- Incumbents: Tim Ryan (D) vs. Bill Johnson (R): Formerly the 17th. For reasons that I explained above, the Sixth District is a likely candidate for elimination. In this plan, Johnson gets paired with Ryan in a district that heavily favors Ryan. Johnson's other option is to move to the new 13th, and run against fellow Republican freshman Bob Gibbs in the primary. Bear in mind that although a Republican holds the Sixth District now, it is essentially a Democratic-leaning seat being eliminated.
District 7 (Grey, Xenia-Lancaster)- Incumbent: Steve Austria (R): This district loses Springfield and gains rural areas in Hocking, Vinton, and Ross Counties. Safe Republican.
District 8 (Lavender, Exurban Cincinnati-Dayton)- Incumbent: John Boehner (R): This district gains territory in Mercer, Butler, and Warren Counties. Safe Republican.
District 9 (Sky Blue, Toledo-Lorain)- Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D): This district sheds some of the Toledo suburbs to pick up Democratic Lorain and Elyria, as part of the effort to eliminate the Thirteenth. Safe Democratic.
District 10 (Magenta, Cleveland-Akron) Incumbents: Dennis Kucinich (D) vs. Betty Sutton (D): Kucinich might actually live in the Eleventh, I'm not sure. This district essentially combines the current Tenth and Thirteenth Districts, to eliminate one of Kucinich and Sutton. This district should be safe Democratic.
District 11 (Yellow Green, Cleveland-Euclid) Incumbent: Marcia Fudge (D): This district barely qualifies as black-majority at 50.38% Black. Safe Democratic.
District 12 (Pale Blue, Columbus-Newark) Incumbent: Pat Tiberi (R): I didn't mess around too much with Columbus because I don't know exactly where in Columbus Stivers lives. This district gains eastern Licking County and western Knox County. Should be Safe Republican.
District 13 (Peach, Zanesville-New Philadelphia) Incumbent: Bob Gibbs (R): This district picks up the center of the current Sixth, from Columbiana to Washington Counties, and makes room for it by shedding territory to the southwest. The whole counties in this district voted 51.52% for McCain, and 54.07% for Bush in 2004.
District 14 (Bronze, Mentor-Ashtabula) Incumbent: Steven LaTourette (R): This district unfortunately has to expand, and has no place to go but south. That makes the district more Democratic, but I think this is the best that can be done.
District 15 (Orange, Western Columbus) Incumbent: Steve Stivers (R): As I explained above, I don't know exactly where Stivers lives. If I did, I might have tried something more adventurous. The district doesn't look like it's changed much, and it hasn't, but it picks up Republican suburbs in northwestern Franklin County.
District 16 (Light Green, Canton-Medina) Incumbent: Jim Renacci (R): This district doesn't change too much, picking up mostly Republican parts of Medina and Lorain counties to facilitate the Thirteenth District's elimination. This district is probably slightly more Republican than it is currently.
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« Reply #36 on: December 29, 2010, 06:48:05 pm »
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I have to think that for a 12-4 configuation, it makes more sense to chop up both Kucinich and Sutton, run Renacci up into that side of Cayuhoga county (dropping Stark), and carving a new Dem seat in Columbus.

Could probably run the 4th up to eat Ottowa and Erie Counties, and put Lorain in the existing 9th.
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« Reply #37 on: December 30, 2010, 05:01:57 pm »
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I have to think that for a 12-4 configuation, it makes more sense to chop up both Kucinich and Sutton, run Renacci up into that side of Cayuhoga county (dropping Stark), and carving a new Dem seat in Columbus.

Could probably run the 4th up to eat Ottowa and Erie Counties, and put Lorain in the existing 9th.

In fact I just tried this.

You can throw the entirity of Marcia Fudge's current 11th, plus the entire Cleveland portion of the current 10th, into the new 11th. 50% black.

That leaves places like Fairview Park, Rocky River, Olmstead, Parma, etc, that are between McCain 40% and 50% areas. You can throw these into Renacci's district and remove Stark county, Renacci should be fine as long as he holds Ashland and Wayne Counties.

Then you just throw Akron into the Youngstown district and Lorain into the Toledo district. Presto, 3 districts in Northern Ohio, the 11th and 13th vanish.
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« Reply #38 on: December 30, 2010, 10:33:19 pm »
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For a map to be real, one must know the Bush 2004 election returns, and do precinct by precinct analysis when one is divvying up counties, particularly the larger ones. Anything less than 54.5% Bush 2004 becomes vulnerable, and I try if possible to get to 55%, before I am satisfied. That would be a GOP PVI for the Bush 2004 numbers of +3% to +3.5%. That is what is needed for GOP incumbents to be reasonably safe if not flawed in a Dem year. And I won't draw a more heavily GOP district to save some weak incumbent who under performs, like say Bachmann, if it is going to make another GOP slated seat too vulnerable. Do you guys have different standards than that?

And this only obtains to areas north of the Mason Dixon line in general, that are not heavily Hispanic. When either of those factors obtain, it is a whole new ball game (for example, when might the Hispanics who are not voting now, start to vote?), and of course for Texas, the Bush numbers are essentially worthless, because they are inflated.
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« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2010, 12:13:04 pm »

For a map to be real, one must know the Bush 2004 election returns, and do precinct by precinct analysis when one is divvying up counties, particularly the larger ones. Anything less than 54.5% Bush 2004 becomes vulnerable, and I try if possible to get to 55%, before I am satisfied. That would be a GOP PVI for the Bush 2004 numbers of +3% to +3.5%. That is what is needed for GOP incumbents to be reasonably safe if not flawed in a Dem year. And I won't draw a more heavily GOP district to save some weak incumbent who under performs, like say Bachmann, if it is going to make another GOP slated seat too vulnerable. Do you guys have different standards than that?

And this only obtains to areas north of the Mason Dixon line in general, that are not heavily Hispanic. When either of those factors obtain, it is a whole new ball game (for example, when might the Hispanics who are not voting now, start to vote?), and of course for Texas, the Bush numbers are essentially worthless, because they are inflated.

I have some of that voting data, and I am reworking my preelection map to see how well a 12-4 map could be constructed with new incumbents. SW OH is easy to get everyone up to 55% R without a lot of shifts. With a four-way split 53% R looks possible for the Columbus area, and I'm still looking to see if it can get higher.

NE OH does not look hopeful for such strong districts. I'm convinced that no splitting of Akron works for the GOP, and so it will have to be attached to one of the Cuyahoga districts to get it out of any intended R districts. Even so, LaTourette's district may not be better that 51% with '04 numbers. The new members in 6 (Johnson) and 18 (Gibbs) both live near the northern ends of their districts pressing more members into NE OH than before.

Johnson lives just south of Youngstown on the border of the district, and its hard to see how his home avoids being in a Youngstown-Warren district built for Ryan. That would fit with a natural inclination to link the heavily Dem areas in current CD 6 with Ryan's base. I also see that Renacci lives quite close to Sutton, which creates the possibility of putting them both in the same district with a 56% R vote in 2004. The GOP could then claim some fairness by eliminating one district from each party and setting up two general election matchups between incumbents, with Dems favored in one and the GOP favored in the other.
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« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2010, 01:53:39 pm »
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The GOP could then claim some fairness by eliminating one district from each party and setting up two general election matchups between incumbents, with Dems favored in one and the GOP favored in the other.

This is part of the reason I think the 6th will definitely be eliminated. It is, after all, a Democratic-leaning district. By eliminating it, the GOP can say that they're getting rid of a Democrat and a Republican, but they're really getting rid of two Democratic districts.
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« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2010, 02:34:30 pm »
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Ohio 12-4




I used the spreadsheet from the Ohio SoS site for county splitting.



Major changes:


CD-1 (Chabot) - I cut this from 36% black to 21% black, replacing them with Republicans from Claremont County

CD-2 (Schmidt) - Weakened a bit to shore up CD-1. Added Scioto and Lawrence Counties.

CD-3 (Turner)  - Adds a bit of heavy Republican territory to the east. I also used John Boehner to shore him up in Dayton a tad. If Mr. Speaker nixes that idea, well, Turner will have to take Trotwood back, but he's ok.

CD-4 (Jordan) - If he's not running for Senate, he comes back to a slightly weaker, but easily holdable district. The sections of Lorain county in his district actually voted ~54% McCain. The sections of Cuyahoga he has are ~50% McCain.

CD-5 (Latta) - There's a bit of an excess of Republicans here, but you can't do much with them.

CD-6 (Gibbs/Johnson) - This district is probably 50/50. There's really not much to do to make it safe; I think the GOP has to live with this one.

CD-7 (Austria) - About the same. Adds Democratic Athens County and some other Republican counties.

CD-8 (Boehner) - See above. Mostly unchanged.

CD-9 (Kaptur) - Adds heavily Democratic areas of Lorain County.

CD-10 (open) - Packed in Columbus seat. Safe Dem, no incumbent. I didn't really work on the specific borders that much.

CD-11 (Fudge) - Packed in Cleveland seat. Probably one of the most Democratic seats in the country outside of California. 50% black as I have it.

CD-12 (Tiberi) - He also staircases up to Stark County.

CD-13 (Ryan) - The old 17th, plus all of Akron and Cuyahoga Falls.

CD-14 (Latuorette) - Tricky. You can't take him west, so he goes South. The areas I added from Summit county (Tallmage, Richfield) are about 50% McCain. Boehner really needs to keep Latuorette in the House.

CD-15 (Stivers) - He doesn't live here, but the new CD-15 staircases up to Stark County.

CD-16 (Renacci) - Drops Stark County. Adds ~40% McCain areas of Cuyahoga County (Brooklyn, Parma). I did give him some Richland territory to compenate, but this district might have to swap areas with the 4th a bit.


If the GOP wanted to get really ugly, they could work CD-5 into Cuyahoga county by running a tendril through Lorain County.

Overall I can see 16 and 6 being vurnerable, but everything else looks fairly ironclad. Mean Jean might lose the 2nd, but a better Republican will probably win it back.
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Torie
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« Reply #42 on: December 31, 2010, 03:55:47 pm »
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For a map to be real, one must know the Bush 2004 election returns, and do precinct by precinct analysis when one is divvying up counties, particularly the larger ones. Anything less than 54.5% Bush 2004 becomes vulnerable, and I try if possible to get to 55%, before I am satisfied. That would be a GOP PVI for the Bush 2004 numbers of +3% to +3.5%. That is what is needed for GOP incumbents to be reasonably safe if not flawed in a Dem year. And I won't draw a more heavily GOP district to save some weak incumbent who under performs, like say Bachmann, if it is going to make another GOP slated seat too vulnerable. Do you guys have different standards than that?

And this only obtains to areas north of the Mason Dixon line in general, that are not heavily Hispanic. When either of those factors obtain, it is a whole new ball game (for example, when might the Hispanics who are not voting now, start to vote?), and of course for Texas, the Bush numbers are essentially worthless, because they are inflated.

I have some of that voting data, and I am reworking my preelection map to see how well a 12-4 map could be constructed with new incumbents. SW OH is easy to get everyone up to 55% R without a lot of shifts. With a four-way split 53% R looks possible for the Columbus area, and I'm still looking to see if it can get higher.

NE OH does not look hopeful for such strong districts. I'm convinced that no splitting of Akron works for the GOP, and so it will have to be attached to one of the Cuyahoga districts to get it out of any intended R districts. Even so, LaTourette's district may not be better that 51% with '04 numbers. The new members in 6 (Johnson) and 18 (Gibbs) both live near the northern ends of their districts pressing more members into NE OH than before.

Johnson lives just south of Youngstown on the border of the district, and its hard to see how his home avoids being in a Youngstown-Warren district built for Ryan. That would fit with a natural inclination to link the heavily Dem areas in current CD 6 with Ryan's base. I also see that Renacci lives quite close to Sutton, which creates the possibility of putting them both in the same district with a 56% R vote in 2004. The GOP could then claim some fairness by eliminating one district from each party and setting up two general election matchups between incumbents, with Dems favored in one and the GOP favored in the other.

It should be possible per the back of the envelop analysis to reach a 55% Bush 2004 goal for 12 seats given the lack of legal restrictions that would crimp the Pubbies style. The only issue is how erose the map gets, and whether either due to that, or incumbent Pubbie issues about being discommoded and the like, the map doesn't cut it politically from a Pubbie standpoint.

The 4 most Dem existing CD's had the following Kerry margins: 63+26+17+17= 123. Ohio statewide had a 2.2% Bush 2004 margin. 2.2 x 16 = 35.2. 35.2+123 =  158.2. (158.2/12)/2 = 6.59, or 56.59% Bush 2004 per each of the 12 Pubbie slated CD's.  

The other issue lurking out there, is whether a more up to date and aggressive Dem packing of the 4 CD's can fully offset or not the need of the 4 CD's to take in a lot more folks, thereby having to add presumably more marginal political territory. If not fully offset, the 123 number will drop, thereby causing the 56.59% number to drop a bit.  But you have quite a bit of a pad over 55% I would think with which to work, even if there is some erosion.

One potential problem of course is the northeast corner district, which can only go in certain directions. It will need a careful scalpel of the Cleveland area precincts I would think to get there.

This assumes of course that I did the math right!  Tongue

Addendum: By the way, for PA we have the following Kerry margins: 75+69+40+13= 197. PA statewide had a -2.5% Bush 2004 margin. -2.5 x 18 = -45. -45+197 = 152. (152/14)/2 = 5.43, or 55.43% Bush 2004 per each of the 14 Pubbie slated CD's.  Now, with the new Pittsburgh CD that I drew, I was able to pick up 2 points, and PA-13  now only has Kerry winning with a 13% margin, and surely that can be pushed up to a 20% margin I would think, and that gets us up to 206, and -45+206 = 161, which when divided by 28 gives us 55.75% Bush. But CD1 and CD2 in PA are probably going to have lower numbers than 75 and 69, which will push the 55.75% number back down. So PA is going to be tight. The issue is whether I can just hit the 54.5% Bush 2004 mark or not for all of the Pubbie CD's in the Philly area. And I don't want to go lower than that, because the trends in the Philly area suck for the GOP. I really would like to get to 55% there.  It is not going to be easy!  

I must say that it is convenient for the Pubbies that CD-01 and CD-02 are so Dem isn't it? Absent that, it would not be possible at all obviously.

One lesson from all of this, is when the numbers are tight, you need to follow the Goldilocks rule rather rigorously. If you draw much more than say a 56% Bush CD in PA, you are digging your own grave vis a vis the leash the Dems to just 4 CD's goal. So if you find that you have drawn say a 57% or more Bush 2004 CD in Ohio, you need to try to get it a bit more Dem, or you may find that later on in your drawing, that you have hit a wall.

Oh, one other thing. For OH-01,  if the black population in Hamilton County is growing in percentage, and/or there is some evidence of latte liberals moving in, you need to be careful to append Pubbie areas that have some dynamic Pubbie growth going on (one trick although maybe not particularly relevant for population static Ohio, is to add precincts that are rather empty in population density, but slated to be where the next subdivisions are going to be built. Willie Brown in CA when he was the master drawer of CD's, once told me that that was one factor he was very careful to factor in). For OH-01 adding such areas will probably will not be that difficult, but one needs to bear the issue  in mind. These districts need to last for 10 years. And ditto for Franklin County (where I know at least the latte liberals have been pouring in, if not necessarily the blacks, but check that out too would be my suggestion).
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« Reply #43 on: January 01, 2011, 10:05:19 am »

Ohio 12-4




I used the spreadsheet from the Ohio SoS site for county splitting.



Major changes:


CD-1 (Chabot) - I cut this from 36% black to 21% black, replacing them with Republicans from Claremont County

CD-2 (Schmidt) - Weakened a bit to shore up CD-1. Added Scioto and Lawrence Counties.

CD-3 (Turner)  - Adds a bit of heavy Republican territory to the east. I also used John Boehner to shore him up in Dayton a tad. If Mr. Speaker nixes that idea, well, Turner will have to take Trotwood back, but he's ok.

CD-4 (Jordan) - If he's not running for Senate, he comes back to a slightly weaker, but easily holdable district. The sections of Lorain county in his district actually voted ~54% McCain. The sections of Cuyahoga he has are ~50% McCain.

CD-5 (Latta) - There's a bit of an excess of Republicans here, but you can't do much with them.

CD-6 (Gibbs/Johnson) - This district is probably 50/50. There's really not much to do to make it safe; I think the GOP has to live with this one.

CD-7 (Austria) - About the same. Adds Democratic Athens County and some other Republican counties.

CD-8 (Boehner) - See above. Mostly unchanged.

CD-9 (Kaptur) - Adds heavily Democratic areas of Lorain County.

CD-10 (open) - Packed in Columbus seat. Safe Dem, no incumbent. I didn't really work on the specific borders that much.

CD-11 (Fudge) - Packed in Cleveland seat. Probably one of the most Democratic seats in the country outside of California. 50% black as I have it.

CD-12 (Tiberi) - He also staircases up to Stark County.

CD-13 (Ryan) - The old 17th, plus all of Akron and Cuyahoga Falls.

CD-14 (Latuorette) - Tricky. You can't take him west, so he goes South. The areas I added from Summit county (Tallmage, Richfield) are about 50% McCain. Boehner really needs to keep Latuorette in the House.

CD-15 (Stivers) - He doesn't live here, but the new CD-15 staircases up to Stark County.

CD-16 (Renacci) - Drops Stark County. Adds ~40% McCain areas of Cuyahoga County (Brooklyn, Parma). I did give him some Richland territory to compenate, but this district might have to swap areas with the 4th a bit.


If the GOP wanted to get really ugly, they could work CD-5 into Cuyahoga county by running a tendril through Lorain County.

Overall I can see 16 and 6 being vurnerable, but everything else looks fairly ironclad. Mean Jean might lose the 2nd, but a better Republican will probably win it back.


I activated the map. BTW Gibbs lives in Holmes county so that puts him in CD 15 in your map.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #44 on: January 01, 2011, 10:36:49 am »
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Thank you, muon2.

I did some rough math.

CD-16 is sitting at about 50/50. That's better than his current district but not really safe. Jim Jordan's CD-4 is about 56% McCain, I am not sure whether we can weaken that any more than I have. He's not exactly moderate.

CD-14 is also sitting at about 50/50, but that can't be helped.

CD-6's full counties are sitting about 53% McCain combined. The areas in Portage/Stark drag that down, though. To shore this district up, I think you can throw the town of Alliance into the 12th.

Every other district should be sitting about about 54% McCain or higher.
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muon2
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« Reply #45 on: January 01, 2011, 11:45:40 am »

Thank you, muon2.

I did some rough math.

CD-16 is sitting at about 50/50. That's better than his current district but not really safe. Jim Jordan's CD-4 is about 56% McCain, I am not sure whether we can weaken that any more than I have. He's not exactly moderate.

CD-14 is also sitting at about 50/50, but that can't be helped.

CD-6's full counties are sitting about 53% McCain combined. The areas in Portage/Stark drag that down, though. To shore this district up, I think you can throw the town of Alliance into the 12th.

Every other district should be sitting about about 54% McCain or higher.

Don't overlook Sutton in your map. She lives right on the border of 14 and 16 as you've drawn it, and both districts are vulnerable to a Dem challenge. I think she would likely run in 16 since LaTourette is more entrenched in 14. In that case she would stand a good chance of winning in 2012, which I doubt would be the GOP's plan.

That's why I suggest making the district that includes Renacci much stronger than the other GOP districts in NE OH. You've already put Stivers or Gibbs out of a district so something has to be done to prevent the GOP conceding both seats in the reduction to 16 districts.
 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #46 on: January 01, 2011, 12:45:11 pm »
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Thank you, muon2.

I did some rough math.

CD-16 is sitting at about 50/50. That's better than his current district but not really safe. Jim Jordan's CD-4 is about 56% McCain, I am not sure whether we can weaken that any more than I have. He's not exactly moderate.

CD-14 is also sitting at about 50/50, but that can't be helped.

CD-6's full counties are sitting about 53% McCain combined. The areas in Portage/Stark drag that down, though. To shore this district up, I think you can throw the town of Alliance into the 12th.

Every other district should be sitting about about 54% McCain or higher.

Don't overlook Sutton in your map. She lives right on the border of 14 and 16 as you've drawn it, and both districts are vulnerable to a Dem challenge. I think she would likely run in 16 since LaTourette is more entrenched in 14. In that case she would stand a good chance of winning in 2012, which I doubt would be the GOP's plan.

That's why I suggest making the district that includes Renacci much stronger than the other GOP districts in NE OH. You've already put Stivers or Gibbs out of a district so something has to be done to prevent the GOP conceding both seats in the reduction to 16 districts.
 

These are the 2010 results for CD-13

Cuyahoga County - 100.00% (1,068 of 1,068) Precincts Reporting
Candidate   Percent Of Votes   Votes
Ganley, Tom (R)   55.25%   20,667
Sutton, Betty (D)   44.75%   16,737

Lorain County - 100.00% (234 of 234) Precincts Reporting
Candidate   Percent Of Votes   Votes
Sutton, Betty (D)   57.83%   40,337
Ganley, Tom (R)   42.17%   29,412

Medina County - 100.00% (151 of 151) Precincts Reporting
Candidate   Percent Of Votes   Votes
Ganley, Tom (R)   53.82%   9,994
Sutton, Betty (D)   46.18%   8,575

Summit County - 100.00% (475 of 475) Precincts Reporting
Candidate   Percent Of Votes   Votes
Sutton, Betty (D)   60.78%   53,157
Ganley, Tom (R)   39.22%   34,294


And these are the 2006 results


DISTRICT NUMBER: 13
COUNTY   Craig Foltin   *Betty Sutton       
    Republican   Democratic       
Cuyahoga **   17,380   18,835       
Lorain **   29,731   41,128       
Medina **   8,063   11,694       
Summit **   30,750   63,986       
Total   85,924   135,643       
Percentage of Votes   38.78%   61.22%   


As you can see, Sutton breaks even in the Cuyahoga part (even in a good year). The difference between a good year and a bad year is for the most part the margin in Akron, which I put in Tim Ryan's district. But my 16th doesn't have any Lorain territory at all, and only a tiny sliver of Summit County territory.

In order for Sutton to win the new 16th, she would have to perform much better in the Southern Cleveland Suburbs that she historically has done, since she is not going to do well at all in Ashland/Richland.


The reason I don't like the configurations that maintain an OH-10 based on Cleveland suburbs is that you end up with a D+6 or so district, maximum. It's just not an efficient pack, and its not a district the GOP can win.
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« Reply #47 on: January 01, 2011, 01:16:47 pm »
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If you wanted to pack the 4 NE districts more, you could drop the west Cuyahoga suburbs in OH-10 and give it more of Akron, and then put some Dem areas of Stark County into Ryan's district (enough to dig out the heart of Canton?).  Doesn't help LaTourette, but it doesn't seem like much can be done about him.  

Addendum:

Something like this:


Renacci takes the eastern slice of Lorain and northwest corner of Cuyahoga - these are lean Bush territories.  Instead of pushing too far south, or into eastern Cuyahoga, LaTourette takes over the southern part of Cuyahoga - these suburbs lean R as well.  Then much of Canton can be taken over in the Dem pack.  
« Last Edit: January 01, 2011, 06:21:57 pm by dpmapper »Logged
Torie
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« Reply #48 on: January 01, 2011, 05:02:50 pm »
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The first thing I do now, is check where each Congressman lives. It turns out that Potts in PA-16 lives clear over in Eastern Chester County, even though most of his CD is in Lancaster County. What a bummer!  My PA CD map is going to look like a real mess - basically just a row of snakes in the central to eastern part of the state it looks like.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #49 on: January 01, 2011, 06:01:50 pm »
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The first thing I do now, is check where each Congressman lives. It turns out that Potts in PA-16 lives clear over in Eastern Chester County, even though most of his CD is in Lancaster County. What a bummer!  My PA CD map is going to look like a real mess - basically just a row of snakes in the central to eastern part of the state it looks like.

wrong thread cowboy...  Smiley
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