US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oh no, irreconciliable differences.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

[Torie]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

His GOP PVI needs to go to a 5 from a 4, and Stivers from a 5 to a 4.

[krazen1211]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

Hopefully, they just pack his district with Columbus Democrats.

[edtorres04]

I strongly believe that at least one Dem pack is needed in central or southern Ohio.  If you don't put it there, it could end up being a dummy mander.  Krazen has been on top of this for quite a while, but part of the reason we lost the house in 2006 is because we were too aggressive in the last round of redistricting.  Let us be more conservative and lock in our gains.  Does it matter if have a 35 seat majority vs a 50 seat majority?  I'd want to lock in our gains, and we have the opportunity do that here. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

Well, I don't think he'd beat Brown (although it would be close), I could easily see the seat flipping (or not, a lot depends on the candidates and to a somewhat lesser degree the district).  Paula Brooks would be a really strong Democratic candidate (she would have definitely won in 2006, and probably won or lost by a razor-thin margin in 2008).  In an open-seat race, baring in mind that the Republican nominee is by no means guaranteed to be as strong as Tiberi, I could see Brooks winning an open-seat.  I don't know which Columbus district Cordray will end up living in, but if he decides to run for Congress (although, this is somewhat unlikely, as he is widely believed to be planning on challenging Kasich in 2014, and would probably win).  However, were he to change his mind or decide to try to also pick up a House seat for the Democrats, he'd win (He won Franklin County by about 20% in 2010).  Another possible candidate is State Representative Nancy Garland who won reelection in 2010 in a district that was one of the top Republican targets that year (there's not really a way around including her most (if not all) of her district in the portion of Franklin County that goes to Tiberi's district.  I'm sure there are other potential Democratic candidates, but with the lines undetermined its hard to say (and the Republicans also have a bench in this area).  Basically, an open seat here could certainly be a Democratic pickup, but it's not a sure thing.          

[Torie]

The final assault by the Pubbies on Columbus is about to begin. Below my stat matrix, is how I plan to allocate the Pubbie spoils between OH-12, OH-15 and OH-04. If Tiberi runs for the Senate, I would recommend flipping the Stivers (OH-15) and Tiberi (OH-12) percentages. The Pubbie blitzkrieg on Columbus has become a bit thin, but not nearly as thin as the Nazi's assault on Stalingrad, where both their fuel (WWII strategy on both sides was largely about moving the pawns around either to obtain or cut off oil; without oil, Hitler was dead meat, and he was cut off from oil, and became dead meat shortly before nukes would have done him in), with his mechanical vehicles and air power dangerously depleted in the face of the coming winter.

If anyone thinks my divvying up of the Pubbie numbers between OH-15, OH-12 and OH-04 is off base, let me know this weekend, because I intend to package a final map (with excel spreadsheet stats this weekend), and then send it off to the Ohio Pubbie power brokers. And I intend to push this map hard, and if ignored, make noise about it, pushing all the power buttons of which I am aware. I worked hard on this map, and intend to do all in my power to see that it is enacted. I intend in short, to try to make a difference. I have pretty complete flexibility on this final divvy up, and thus am open to ideas on it.

A couple of notes. First, I shipped 120  Pubbie basis points (1.2%) from OH-02 to OH-10 vis a vis my prior map, a rather significant change really. I did that, because excising Charlie Wilson from OH-10 was just a bridge too far to me. It is one thing, to dump Sutton and that defeated incumbent in my OH-16 (Brocelli or something) into OH-13 (and away from my newly drawn CD, OH-16, which visits all kind of fascinating neighborhoods in west Cuyahoga County), just by jiggling a bunch of lines that were already well, erose to the max. It is another to do a spite strip into Belmont County to F Charlie Wilson by shoving his home out of OH-10 and into OH-06. Mr. Wilson is  no doubt a nice chap (I suppose morticians (Wilson's trade) have to be nice to stay in business, although all such places would be out of business if the populace had my sense of how to handle the disposing of human corpses, but I digress). Such a spite poke into Belmont is just too obvious, too mean, and just well, just too infra dig. So I pumped the 100 plus Pubbie basis points into OH-10 from OH-02, just to help Mr. Wilson make the "right" decision, in a gentle and caring way. May he rest in peace.

I also discovered the "prison precinct" in Madison County, right on the Clark County border. I will put it up later. Suffice it to say for now, that by one click of the mouse, I dropped it into Boehner's OH-08, which with 300 voters voting 2-1 for McCain changed nothing for him. But with 5,200 residents, a majority of color, what it did do, is allow his CD to be stripped of his Mercer County precincts, which went right into OH-04.  Since OH-04 is doing the heavy lifting on the Columbus chop, that meant that 20 Pubbie basis points were pumped straight into Columbus - 20 basis points that were/are sorely needed.

Yes, again the assault on Columbus is thin, but to give the Pubbie assault more weaponry, would mean to start doing a gerrymander of the precincts between OH-02 and OH-07, with at least one and maybe two additional county chops, and I made a judgement call just not to do that. As with everything in life, map drawing has to be a careful balancing test, to get the best possible product. Hard work, and good judgment, and knowledge, are the key to excellence in any endeavor. There is no substitute. There just isn't! That has been my experience, and that approach has worked for me. Just one old man's opinion.





One note about the zoom of Columbus, and OH-07 in particular (the brown CD). The darker brown represents OH-07's pickup of former OH-15 precincts, about 50-50 McCain/Obama overall, or about +3% GOP PVI. The mid brown is OH-07's existing precincts. The light brown precincts are OH-07's visit to Pubbie hell: black precincts none of which are above 25% McCain, and a majority of which are single digit McCain. OH-07 sucked up four black wards in Columbus. That was about all the punishment OH-07 could stand. OH-04 is now slated to wrap about the southern terminus of the dark blue strip (OH-15, and the most southern precinct therein the precinct that hosts the residence of Stivers), go east to Bexley, but not into it (yes Bexley is 2-1 Obama, but OH-04 has more pressing work to do), and then all the way up to and including that white box, which is another nest of single digit McCain precincts.

The final stat matrix chart will show the change in PVI's in each CD. That is another thing one must be sensitive to - the PVI delta function when it comes to Pubbie incumbents. If the change is drastic, then I intend if possible to give the Pubbie with more hostile territory than the Pubbie was used to, a bit of a pad - if I can.

Oh, and I deliberately kept OH-02 and Schmidt out of Athens County, a county which hosts a state university, and of course, is, you guessed it, 2-1 Dem. Schmidt (the shrill and controversial congresswoman holding OH-02 at the moment) would do about as well there, as Fred Phelps would do in Greenwich Village. Just no. No!  A more invisible Pubbie would do better.

[muon2]

Some mathematical analyses I've read suggest that it's best to put the really hard D areas in with the hardest R areas. Hard D areas will never cross over for a primary challenge, and as long as there are enough hard R areas, then the D can't win a general election either. If that analysis is correct, the maybe Athens should go to OH-2.

[Torie]

Some mathematical analyses I've read suggest that it's best to put the really hard D areas in with the hardest R areas. Hard D areas will never cross over for a primary challenge, and as long as there are enough hard R areas, then the D can't win a general election either. If that analysis is correct, the maybe Athens should go to OH-2.

You don't think a Bachmann/Schmidt would suffer disproportionate erosion in a university town, vis a vis a Portman, or Rogers, or Ryan, or even say my congresscritter, Campbell, at least to the extent you are not talking about a hard left University? Particularly in these times, when the status quo is really, really f'ing the young, and all we need is the right messenger to get the truth out? Folks from Athens won't be getting those prestigious federal jobs, the number of which has nearly doubled under Obama, and late term Bush. So they don't have that incentive. Most of them are destined to be middle to lower middle class "slugs," to put it brutally, but honestly. Does that make any sense to you Muon2?

[Brittain33]

Folks from Athens won't be getting those prestigious federal jobs, the number of which has nearly doubled under Obama, and late term Bush.

What federal jobs are you talking about that have doubled in number? Total civilian employment is up through 2009 (presumably on Bush's last budget?) when the data series ends but not that dramatically, and after declines. So that can't be what you mean.

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp

[Horus]

Wow, you did a number on my city. If the state adopts it, I will love to hate that map for eternity. Gotta commend you on that Torie, it's amazing work. You must've put days upon days into just Columbus.

I think I'm still in Tiberi's district.

[Torie]

Wow, you did a number on my city. If the state adopts it, I will love to hate that map for eternity. Gotta commend you on that Torie, it's amazing work. You must've put days upon days into just Columbus.

I think I'm still in Tiberi's district.

I haven't drawn his CD yet!   But if you live east of the line which you can draw north and south of the western terminus of Genoa township in Delaware County, you will be in OH-12. Of that much I am sure.

Thanks for the kind words btw. I am proud of all my maps, but proudest of this one, because it took the most creativity and thought, and I did it carefully from step one based on my experience (and missteps) in drawing prior maps. One needs a plan, and one needs to know the numbers, or one will just go into the ditch, and produce garbage really.

[Torie]

Folks from Athens won't be getting those prestigious federal jobs, the number of which has nearly doubled under Obama, and late term Bush.

What federal jobs are you talking about that have doubled in number? Total civilian employment is up through 2009 (presumably on Bush's last budget?) when the data series ends but not that dramatically, and after declines. So that can't be what you mean.

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp

I heard it from Fox News on Greta, from some chappie with charts and stuff who seemed quite on top of his game. I am not sure however what the exact start date was for the doubling thing I admit. Anyway, it please don't confuse me with the "facts" this late at night Brittain33, whatever they might be. Empirical wars are just so labor intensive. Thanks in advance! Caio.

[Horus]

Wow, you did a number on my city. If the state adopts it, I will love to hate that map for eternity. Gotta commend you on that Torie, it's amazing work. You must've put days upon days into just Columbus.

I think I'm still in Tiberi's district.

I haven't drawn his CD yet!   But if you live east of the line which you can draw north and south of the western terminus of Genoa township in Delaware County, you will be in OH-12. Of that much I am sure.

Thanks for the kind words btw. I am proud of all my maps, but proudest of this one, because it took the most creativity and thought, and I did it carefully from step one based on my experience (and missteps) in drawing prior maps. One needs a plan, and one needs to know the numbers, or one will just go into the ditch, and produce garbage really.

Very welcome. I'm working on a map as we speak that's 12-4 GOP adding a Columbus district. Nowhere near as difficult as a 13-3 map, of course, but I'm trying to make all GOP districts incredibly solid, so even a Dem version of 2010 or 1994 couldn't flip them...

[muon2]

Some mathematical analyses I've read suggest that it's best to put the really hard D areas in with the hardest R areas. Hard D areas will never cross over for a primary challenge, and as long as there are enough hard R areas, then the D can't win a general election either. If that analysis is correct, the maybe Athens should go to OH-2.

You don't think a Bachmann/Schmidt would suffer disproportionate erosion in a university town, vis a vis a Portman, or Rogers, or Ryan, or even say my congresscritter, Campbell, at least to the extent you are not talking about a hard left University? Particularly in these times, when the status quo is really, really f'ing the young, and all we need is the right messenger to get the truth out? Folks from Athens won't be getting those prestigious federal jobs, the number of which has nearly doubled under Obama, and late term Bush. So they don't have that incentive. Most of them are destined to be middle to lower middle class "slugs," to put it brutally, but honestly. Does that make any sense to you Muon2?

The theory is that if there is a pool of hard D votes, there's nothing that can be done to win them in any year. Likewise a pool of hard R would never be lost, so the best district for a hard R candidate would have 51% hard R and 49% hard D with no independent or swing voters.

The swing voters should be reserved for districts that will attract candidates with a moderate appeal, and that would be where the hard core elements of the party can't win in the primary. Ideally it's a district with lots of swingy voters, but with a clear R PVI if the GOP is drawing the map.

This is just one theory, but it make some sense from a statistical perspective. It requires thinking about one's partisans as to the strength of their convictions. That's harder to discern from simple precinct results, but comparing strong elections for opposite parties (eg 2006 vs 2010) can provide a good sense of the amount of swing in a precinct.

[TJ in Oregon]

In the 2006 Senate race (Athens is split into two Congressional Districts on the current map so the Senate is easier to look at), Sherrod Brown (D) won Athens County 70%-30% and won Ohio 56%-44%, so 14 points more Democratic than the entire state.

In the 2010 Senate race, Lee Fisher (D) carried Athens County 59%-35% (not sure who the other 6% voted for) but went on to lose the state 57-39% to Rob Portman, so 20 points more Democratic than the entire state (and 22 points less Republican).

As far as I can tell the only way time the Repubicans kept Athens reasonably close was in the 2000 presidential election when Gore only won 52-38% because 7% voted for Ralph Nader.

Though this is probably a moot point because the 10th district as Torie drew is probably Republican enough to safely re-elect Bob Gibbs anyways. And I have a hard time seeing the Dems having a major resurgence in that part of the state (think West Virginia) anytime soon barring some kind of scandal.

[Bacon King]

Some mathematical analyses I've read suggest that it's best to put the really hard D areas in with the hardest R areas. Hard D areas will never cross over for a primary challenge, and as long as there are enough hard R areas, then the D can't win a general election either. If that analysis is correct, the maybe Athens should go to OH-2.

You don't think a Bachmann/Schmidt would suffer disproportionate erosion in a university town, vis a vis a Portman, or Rogers, or Ryan, or even say my congresscritter, Campbell, at least to the extent you are not talking about a hard left University? Particularly in these times, when the status quo is really, really f'ing the young, and all we need is the right messenger to get the truth out? Folks from Athens won't be getting those prestigious federal jobs, the number of which has nearly doubled under Obama, and late term Bush. So they don't have that incentive. Most of them are destined to be middle to lower middle class "slugs," to put it brutally, but honestly. Does that make any sense to you Muon2?

The theory is that if there is a pool of hard D votes, there's nothing that can be done to win them in any year. Likewise a pool of hard R would never be lost, so the best district for a hard R candidate would have 51% hard R and 49% hard D with no independent or swing voters.

The swing voters should be reserved for districts that will attract candidates with a moderate appeal, and that would be where the hard core elements of the party can't win in the primary. Ideally it's a district with lots of swingy voters, but with a clear R PVI if the GOP is drawing the map.

This is just one theory, but it make some sense from a statistical perspective. It requires thinking about one's partisans as to the strength of their convictions. That's harder to discern from simple precinct results, but comparing strong elections for opposite parties (eg 2006 vs 2010) can provide a good sense of the amount of swing in a precinct.

Doesn't this analysis kind of ignore turnout, though? For example, your "ideal" district of 51% hard R's vs. 49% hard D's would swing as soon as the Democrats had a turnout increase relative to the Republicans.

[muon2]

Some mathematical analyses I've read suggest that it's best to put the really hard D areas in with the hardest R areas. Hard D areas will never cross over for a primary challenge, and as long as there are enough hard R areas, then the D can't win a general election either. If that analysis is correct, the maybe Athens should go to OH-2.

You don't think a Bachmann/Schmidt would suffer disproportionate erosion in a university town, vis a vis a Portman, or Rogers, or Ryan, or even say my congresscritter, Campbell, at least to the extent you are not talking about a hard left University? Particularly in these times, when the status quo is really, really f'ing the young, and all we need is the right messenger to get the truth out? Folks from Athens won't be getting those prestigious federal jobs, the number of which has nearly doubled under Obama, and late term Bush. So they don't have that incentive. Most of them are destined to be middle to lower middle class "slugs," to put it brutally, but honestly. Does that make any sense to you Muon2?

The theory is that if there is a pool of hard D votes, there's nothing that can be done to win them in any year. Likewise a pool of hard R would never be lost, so the best district for a hard R candidate would have 51% hard R and 49% hard D with no independent or swing voters.

The swing voters should be reserved for districts that will attract candidates with a moderate appeal, and that would be where the hard core elements of the party can't win in the primary. Ideally it's a district with lots of swingy voters, but with a clear R PVI if the GOP is drawing the map.

This is just one theory, but it make some sense from a statistical perspective. It requires thinking about one's partisans as to the strength of their convictions. That's harder to discern from simple precinct results, but comparing strong elections for opposite parties (eg 2006 vs 2010) can provide a good sense of the amount of swing in a precinct.

Doesn't this analysis kind of ignore turnout, though? For example, your "ideal" district of 51% hard R's vs. 49% hard D's would swing as soon as the Democrats had a turnout increase relative to the Republicans.

Of course there are many other factor that one needs to account for, including turnout. However, I thought the theory provided an interesting insight into districts that is not often covered. I would say that turnout is more likely to be a problem with swing voters. The hard D's and R's are usually the most likely to vote - that's part of how they get identified as such.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We have a ballot box stuffing issue! And the Pubbies did it at two and a half times the rate the Dems did! And here I thought that is was the Dems who were the specialists in vote fraud.  What happened?    I suspect I counted some county twice or something. I will figure it out. It is not due to a double count in Franklin. My numbers there reconcile within a few hundred votes.

What a nightmare that was, to keep each precinct in Franklin in the right one of four potential CD's. I finally had to have a worksheet, with a column of all the precincts, and then put the returns for each precinct in the right cell under the column for the CD to which it was assigned, with whatever CD it was in being in the same row (so that each CD column had a lot of blacks for rows in which the subject precincts where in another CD). That way, I made sure no precincts were missed, and none double assigned. In the end, that was the only way to do it, without ending up with a lot of errors. The problem was that most of the chopping was in the city of Columbus rather than between towns, and Columbus has about 520 precincts, so the potential for making errors was considerable.

With all due respect, the legislature is probably not going screw over Stivers in a primary like that, Republicans are not going to focus on aggressive, partisan efficiency in the single-minded way your map does.  They'll take it into account, but it won't over-ride everything else by default.

[Brittain33]

With all due respect, the legislature is probably not going screw over Stivers in a primary like that, Republicans are not going to focus on aggressive, partisan efficiency in the single-minded way your map does.  They'll take it into account, but it won't over-ride everything else by default.

I'm reassured by the way the Columbus quad-chop looks, because I agree, I do not see that 4th district being passed out of the legislature.

[Torie]

How is Stivers screwed again? Too much rural territory?  Somebody has to take it, and the only issue is how it is shared between OH-15 and OH-12.  The alternative, is the risk goes up that one or the other seats, or both, might go Dem in the general. I think the Pubbies would rather Stivers or Tiberi lose in a primary, than one of them lose to a Dem in the general. In the meantime, I need to figure out where my error(s) is/are. That might influence the map a bit. There is no way either Oh-12 or OH-15 will be allowed to be significantly more Pubbie than OH-04 or OH-07 for example, which is what my numbers have now, with the embeded errors.

In the meantime, I think this map is so beautiful and compelling that I would be shocked if it were not adopted, in substantially my form. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How is Stivers screwed again? Too much rural territory?  Somebody has to take it, and the only issue is how it is shared between OH-15 and OH-12.  The alternative, is the risk goes up that one or the other seats, or both, might go Dem in the general. I think the Pubbies would rather Stivers or Tiberi lose in a primary, than one of them lose to a Dem in the general. In the meantime, I need to figure out where my error(s) is/are. That might influence the map a bit. There is no way either Oh-12 or OH-15 will be allowed to be significantly more Pubbie than OH-04 or OH-07 for example, which is what my numbers have now, with the embeded errors.

In the meantime, I think this map is so beautiful and compelling that I would be shocked if it were not adopted, in substantially my form.  

Stivers could very easily lose a primary in that district.  I actually think many Central Ohio Republicans in the legislature would rather try to keep Stivers and Tiberi safe from a primary challenge by a RURUAL tea-party type (while still giving them some chance of winning the general) than guarantee that the seats stay in Republican hands and risk a Congressman from farm country.  I suspect Jordan and Latta will end up with much of that rural territory.  It's a valiant effort, that much is certain, but if Republicans try to limit the Dems to three seats and that's the only effective way to handle Franklin County, than the Pubbies are going to end up creating a dummymander on their hands, imo (because I doubt they'll choose this map, even though it does its job extremely well).  

This very cycle, Arkansas Dixiecrats Democrats have decided to screw the best interests of the party and try to enact a pathetic dummymander, just to prevent the state from potentially having an African-American Congressman.

[Torie]

How is Stivers screwed again? Too much rural territory?  Somebody has to take it, and the only issue is how it is shared between OH-15 and OH-12.  The alternative, is the risk goes up that one or the other seats, or both, might go Dem in the general. I think the Pubbies would rather Stivers or Tiberi lose in a primary, than one of them lose to a Dem in the general. In the meantime, I need to figure out where my error(s) is/are. That might influence the map a bit. There is no way either Oh-12 or OH-15 will be allowed to be significantly more Pubbie than OH-04 or OH-07 for example, which is what my numbers have now, with the embeded errors.

In the meantime, I think this map is so beautiful and compelling that I would be shocked if it were not adopted, in substantially my form.  

Stivers could very easily lose a primary in that district.  I actually think many Central Ohio Republicans in the legislature would rather try to keep Stivers and Tiberi safe from a primary challenge by a RURUAL tea-party type (while still giving them some chance of winning the general) than guarantee that the seats stay in Republican hands and risk a Congressman from farm country.  I suspect Jordan and Latta will end up with much of that rural territory.  It's a valiant effort, that much is certain, but if Republicans try to limit the Dems to three seats and that's the only effective way to handle Franklin County, than the Pubbies are going to end up creating a dummymander on their hands, imo (because I doubt they'll choose this map, even though it does its job extremely well).  

This very cycle, Arkansas Dixiecrats Democrats have decided to screw the best interests of the party and try to enact a pathetic dummymander, just to prevent the state from potentially having an African-American Congressman.

Well, assuming my mathematical errors are not with the quad chop (and the errors are probably elsewhere), then the problem will substantially go away, to the extent it is a problem (I don't think it is really at all, but whatever). This is because in order to get OH-07's and OH-04's GOP PVI 50 to 100 basis points higher than OH-15's and OH-12's GOP PVI, CH-04 will retreat back somewhat out of Franklin, picking up more rural precincts, and OH-07 will give up some of its uber Dem precincts, in favor of less Dem precincts, in a tradeout with OH-12, so that OH-12's GOP PVI goes down, and OH-07's goes up.

[Torie]

We have a ballot box stuffing issue! And the Pubbies did it at two and a half times the rate the Dems did! And here I thought that is was the Dems who were the specialists in vote fraud.  What happened?    I suspect I counted some county twice or something. I will figure it out. It is not due to a double count in Franklin. My numbers there reconcile within a few hundred votes.

What a nightmare that was, to keep each precinct in Franklin in the right one of four potential CD's. I finally had to have a worksheet, with a column of all the precincts, and then put the returns for each precinct in the right cell under the column for the CD to which it was assigned, with whatever CD it was in being in the same row (so that each CD column had a lot of blacks for rows in which the subject precincts where in another CD). That way, I made sure no precincts were missed, and none double assigned. In the end, that was the only way to do it, without ending up with a lot of errors. The problem was that most of the chopping was in the city of Columbus rather than between towns, and Columbus has about 520 precincts, so the potential for making errors was considerable.

Addendum: I have deleted the erroneous old stats, and put up the correct ones. The remaining tiny error was one of which I was aware, and is in Franklin County, and represents about 1,000 unallocated federal votes (2-1 Obama), plus no doubt data entry errors by myself for two or three precincts. Other than that, the numbers now all match.

The big error was in OH-04's PVI, as you can see. Which is good news for the Pubbies, because the error all translated almost into excess GOP PVI for the two existing major Columbus CD's, OH-12 and OH-15. That means OH-04 will stage a rather major retreat from Franklin County, to get a bit more than five points back. The remainder of the changes I want to make are rather minor. Of most interest, is that the corrected numbers have OH-10 losing 50 basis points of GOP PVI, and I got spoiled with its high number, and want to get it back up to 6.5% GOP PVI. I will do that, or something close, by having OH-10 take the rest of Lawrence County, and have OH-02 punch into - yes you guessed it - Athens County! Athens will be the chop county, with OH-02 taking a small morsel out of it.

And oh yes, I am going to have OH-08 punch into Madison County a bit more to take some marginal precincts in a town there, and lose a few heavily GOP precincts to OH-04. That will pump a few more Pubbie basis points into OH-12 and OH-15 at the end of the day, maybe about 20 basis points or so. (I might also move a few precincts around (if I can maintain clean lines), to get OH-05 at or above 5% GOP PVI. I have a plan to do that too if the population numbers otherwise work.)

Other than that, we are done!  This map has proven I think to be huge success for the Pubbies. It is almost a no brainer really when you think about it. The odds are very high that it will enacted into law, in close to this form. There is no other way to draw it that works nearly as well in my not very humble at all opinion.

 

[Torie]

Ohio is finally finished.  

The option below assumes Tiberi in OH-12 runs for re-election. The post below has a slightly adjusted map, where he does not, showing how the chop in Richland and Franklin are adjusted to get the GOP PVI up in OH-12 if it is an open seat. By mixing and matching the Richland and Franklin chops, one can move about 75 basis points (0.75%) between OH-12 and OH-15, or something in between, without making the map look gross.

It turns out that the Columbus chop is eminently doable, practical, and quite safe for the Pubbies. GOP PVI's above 5% mean that what you have is a quite safe GOP seat, particularly if a GOP incumbent who is not a nebbish is ensconced therein.