US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Padfoot]

Here's my attempt:

OH-01 (blue) - 51.4 Obama, 47.5 McCain
OH-02 (green) - 55.4 McCain, 43.0 Obama
OH-03 (purple) - 50.6 McCain, 48.0 Obama
OH-04 (red, formerly OH-18) - 52.0 McCain, 45.7 Obama
OH-05 (yellow) - 56.1 McCain, 41.9 Obama
OH-06 (teal) - 52.3 McCain, 45.4 Obama
OH-07 (grey) - 51.7 McCain, 46.7 Obama
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.9 McCain, 36.4 Obama
OH-09 (sky blue) - 61.2 Obama, 37.1 McCain
OH-10 (magenta) - 61.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain
OH-11 (light green) - 81.8 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 50.5% black VAP
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 51.1 Obama, 47.6 McCain
OH-13 (pink, formerly OH-17) - 61.1 Obama, 37.0 McCain
OH-14 (brown) - 49.9 McCain, 48.6 Obama
OH-15 (orange) - 51.2 Obama, 47.1 McCain
OH-16 (khaki) - 51.3 McCain, 47.0 Obama

Jordan is dumped in with Boehner, Sutton is either in with Fudge or LaTourette (Copley is split between the two districts). It would probably be better for Republicans to get rid of Sutton than Kucinich, since Dennis is a gadly with no chance of ever running for statewide office. Otherwise, most Reps have to sacrifice a bit to spread out the danger.

This map is far to marginal for the GOP.  Its almost what I would expect out of a commission whose goal was to create the most sprawling competitive districts possible.  The only safe seats for Republicans would be 2, 5, and 8.  All the recently ousted Dems could easily retake their seats in 1, 4(18), 6, 15, and 16.  Also the map puts the previously safe 7 at higher risk and does little to shore up 3 and 12 which are being held only because of the strength of the incumbents.  (14 is a lost cause for Republicans once Latourette is gone)  Then of course the current Dem incumbents have safe seats in 9, 10, 11, and 13.  The only thing this map does to benefit the GOP is eliminate Sutton's district.

Republicans really just need to bit the bullet and trade a Cleveland Dem seat for a Columbus Dem pack.  It would make the rest of the seats so much easier to hold IMO.  Otherwise they are risking a repeat of the '06 and '08 disasters.  Eliminate Jordan and Schmidt and force Kucinich to move out west.

[Torie]

Eastern Ohio looks pretty good to me. The Pubbie pawns in the west need to be moved around, but that is just cleanup work. OH-06 was troublesome, and required a gerrymander of Jefferson County to get the McCain percentage up to where I wanted it. 

          McCain  %

OH-11  14.8%
OH-15  29.1%
Oh-09  31.9%
OH-13  33.6%
OH-14  49.1%
OH-06  50.1%
OH-16  50.3%
OH-10  54.5%

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Eastern Ohio looks pretty good to me. The Pubbie pawns in the west need to be moved around, but that is just cleanup work. OH-06 was troublesome, and required a gerrymander of Jefferson County to get the McCain percentage up to where I wanted it. 

          McCain  %

OH-11  14.8%
OH-15  29.1%
Oh-09  31.9%
OH-13  33.6%
OH-14  49.1%
OH-06  50.1%
OH-16  50.3%
OH-10  54.5%

According to this article, Johnson moved from Poland (Mahoning County) to Marietta (Washington County). You should take this into account.

[Torie]

Well isn't that just special!  LOL.  Well either there will be two incumbents in OH-10, or Holmes County will need to be appended to OH-06 in a game of CD musical chairs, or Johnson will need to move back. Interesting. Thanks for the heads us.

And voila.  Piece of cake!  It did motivate me to change the CD numbers a bit. It does make it tough to get the Butternut area with all those Tory Dems (OH-06 now) up to totally comfortable levels, but this will have to more or less do.


         McCain  %

OH-11  14.8%
OH-15  29.1%
Oh-09  31.9%
OH-13  33.6%
OH-14  49.1%
OH-10  50.3%
OH-16  51.3%
OH-06  51.7%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jordan against Boehner hah. Brilliant. Especially as with today's GOP primary electorate Jordan very well could win.

[BigSkyBob]

Jordan against Boehner hah. Brilliant. Especially as with today's GOP primary electorate Jordan very well could win.

Jordan ought to win.

[Torie]

The map below shows how the existing lines have changed. I tried to minimize the changes - for the Pubbies of course. Old OH-04 (Jordan) and OH-15 (Stivers) have merged).

So the new OH-04 has:

302,149 from Jordan's old OH-04
289,324 from Stivers' old OH-15
128,199 new territory but all in Franklin and Delaware Counties (in the Columbus media market)

So based on geography alone, and if Stivers moves, advantage Stivers. But of course, it won't be all based on geography. It needed to be set up as a reasonably fair fight, or the Tea Party might declare war, and that is not in the Pubbies' interest, so it should not, and I assume, will not, happen.

[Sam Spade]

I really don't know why Boehner would want to play Russian Roulette by putting Jordan in his CD.  But who knows.

[Torie]

I really don't know why Boehner would want to play Russian Roulette by putting Jordan in his CD.  But who knows.

Jordan lives in Champaign County, not Greene. Austria lives in Greene. Johnny got confused, I guess. It is a terrible idea to do that in any event.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Right, I put him in Stivers' district (which was, in fact, my intention). Duh. Stupid rectangular counties.

[Torie]

Right, I put him in Stivers' district (which was, in fact, my intention). Duh. Stupid rectangular counties.

Welcome to the Midwest! 

[muon2]

Right, I put him in Stivers' district (which was, in fact, my intention). Duh. Stupid rectangular counties.

Welcome to the Midwest! 

With homage to the Land Ordinance of 1785 and the Northwest Ordinance of 1787.

[TJ in Oregon]

With homage to the Land Ordinance of 1785 and the Northwest Ordinance of 1787.

I have to explain the concept of a township to more people to an impressively large number of people from other parts of the country who seem to think it means a variety of different things. Every time someone asks me where I'm from, I always have to think about whether or not it is worth naming the township I grew up in and explaining it, or just saying I'm from Sandusky and calling it a day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one in Minnesota ever says that they are from ________ Township. They are just from "outside *nearest city/town*"

[Torie]

Just for fun, I explored the option of the 4th Dem CD being in the Cleveland-Akron-Canton area rather than Columbus. This iteration of the a 4th Dem CD is in white, and went 60.6% for Obama. Gorgeous isn't it?  The Pubblie flushee in this scenario would be Gibbs in Holmes county, or he would fight it out with Renassci (sp) in Medina County, or maybe Gibbs in Washington County depending on how the balance of the map works.  

I wonder if something like this is in the wind,, monstrous looking though it is (with OH-11 and OH-13 (now the Sutton CD), both having parallel tails running south to Akron (OH-11 to pick up the blacks in Akron, and OH-13 to pick up the white Dems).  There is no other way to do it. Under this scenario, OH-10 (formerly OH-13 in my previous map) would take in all of Mahoning, as well as all of much of Columbiana, Jefferson and Belmont Counties,, and that might explain why Johnson moved from Mahoning down south along the Ohio River to Washington County. Wheels within wheels.

[whaeffner1]

Yoohoo!  Everyone.  Wake up!  There is no way the Republicans IN CONRTOL in Ohio are going to create a Democratic district in Columbus.  They didn't need to do it for this decade, they won't have to for the next.  They just divide the city into three and spread it with Republican heavy suburbs.  Problem solved.  So stop all of the maps involving a heavy Dem district in Columbus.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The world of 2000, is far different from what the world of 2020 will be like. This map has to last for 10 years and I don't know if the GOP is going to get away with a split of Colombus for much longer, even if it's three ways, without one or more of the seats falling. And they likely won't be able to come back in 2015 and redistrict mid decade like Texas may be planning to do.

[TJ in Oregon]

If the Ohio GOP wants to continue splitting Columbus rather than packing it, they really need to split it four ways this time because three has already cost them the Kilroy/Stivers seat and Tiberi's is only safe if he's the incumbent and even with him, there's a limit which may be approached as we move toward 2020. Austria can handle a little more of Columbus than he currently has, but not nearly enough to stall the GOP's demographic problems in Columbus. To make it worse, the Columbus area is the fastest growing in the state. It really needs to either be packed or split four ways.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have some updates about how this might be starting to shape up.  Apparently, the Republicans are planning to eliminate Sutton's district and give Kucinich a swing district that, though not necessarily out of reach for the Democrats, would be impossible for Kucinich to hold.  Columbus will likely be cracked three ways (much the same as it currently is).  Also, Jordan's seat doesn't seem to be on the chopping block.  They seem to be planning to merge two of the following freshmen's districts, Renacci, Gibbs, and Johnson, and letting them fight it out in a primary (though which two has not been decided).  Apparently, there was concern that Jordan might defeat Stivers or Boehner in a primary.  Bare in mind that these are just rumors I heard recently, however, they come from a pretty credible source.

[krazen1211]

I have some updates about how this might be starting to shape up.  Apparently, the Republicans are planning to eliminate Sutton's district and give Kucinich a swing district that, though not necessarily out of reach for the Democrats, would be impossible for Kucinich to hold.  Columbus will likely be cracked three ways (much the same as it currently is).  Also, Jordan's seat doesn't seem to be on the chopping block.  They seem to be planning to merge two of the following freshmen's districts, Renacci, Gibbs, and Johnson, and letting them fight it out in a primary (though which two has not been decided).  Apparently, there was concern that Jordan might defeat Stivers or Boehner in a primary.  Bare in mind that these are just rumors I heard recently, however, they come from a pretty credible source.

Certainly very logical. That plan though would likely require that the black district stay in Cuyahoga.

[TJ in Oregon]

Certainly very logical. That plan though would likely require that the black district stay in Cuyahoga.

Not necesarily, you can get OH-10 to about R+3.4 or so with the black district 50.1% VAP going to Akron and without OH-9 coming into Cuyahoga. The following is R+3.36 using 2008 presidential numbers:



Here's the corresponding OH-11:



It looks hideous, but don't all the VRA OH-11s?

[Brittain33]

That rumor is very logical. Except for their OH-10 plans, it's what I've been predicting for months.

[krazen1211]

Certainly very logical. That plan though would likely require that the black district stay in Cuyahoga.

Not necesarily, you can get OH-10 to about R+3.4 or so with the black district 50.1% VAP going to Akron and without OH-9 coming into Cuyahoga. The following is R+3.36 using 2008 presidential numbers:



Here's the corresponding OH-11:



It looks hideous, but don't all the VRA OH-11s?

I guess that is possible, but Latuorette is taking some less than desirable areas there.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Cut: failure of basic arithmetic on my part.

[TJ in Oregon]

No, if the GOP puts Renacci in Kucinich's seat, Gibbs and Johnson would each get their own. The only problem with this is that Renacci might not be a perfect fit for Cleveland.