US House Redistricting: Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

It just seems like it's convoluted for the sake of being convoluted. For example, the unnecessary splits of Medina, Wyandot, Hardin, Hancock, Wood (though this is understandable to keep Fostoria whole), and Huron Counties, as well as the unnecessary 3-way splits of Erie, Stark, Lucas, and Mercer Counties. I don't see any actual reason why OH-15 takes that shape throught rural, homogenous SW Ohio. That think is truly awful looking---and they still didn't even crack Columbus. I also am wondering why they put so much of Cuyahoga County into OH-10. Do they want Kucinich to get re-elected?

The did a good job with Cincy and the Ohio River areas for the most part, although I don't like how OH-2 does a horseshoe around Highland County for no apparent reason.

[krazen1211]

Cleaned it up a bit.

[Torie]

The lake makes OH-09 contiguous eh? LOL. If that is the way the game is played, I could have saved a lot of time!  Euclid was always a pain in the ass for me to deal with. But if using a boat is good enough, it's a piece of cake man.

The Pubs were probably wise to throw in the towel on Columbus. The trends suck there for the Pubs. Granted Tiberi and Shivers are talented, but this is a ten year deal.

No Akron prong though. That is a surprise. I guess the Pubs are confident a less than 50% black Cleveland CD will hold up in court. They are probably right.

I haven't looked very closely at the rest of the map yet. I do see that they went for the Canton prong, and right through Alliance just like I did.

I must say the Pubs are not shy about creating butt ugly maps. And I now know why they canned Austria. It was because they are ceding Columbus, so someone needed to go.

[Torie]

Torie, I owe you an apology for refusing to believe OH republicans would draw a map this convoluted.

It's worse than mine!  I only convoluted the Dem sinks in general. They just went all over the place. That pink thing in Krazen's map is just ludicrous. I mean the Columbus burb CD's both go down to the Butternut Ohio River!  Why?

[krazen1211]

I think you're confused, Torie, sir. What you're responding to is my own map where I took the proposed one and cleaned it up. It's not official.

[Torie]

I think you're confused, Torie, sir. What you're responding to is my own map where I took the proposed one and cleaned it up. It's not official.

Oh. I thought you copied the real map. Hopefully someone will put up the real map in a way that I can see it, or copy it on the Bradlee utility.  I have tired old eyes. I have trouble reading some of the maps put it.  That is why I make mine big and bright! 

[krazen1211]

I think you're confused, Torie, sir. What you're responding to is my own map where I took the proposed one and cleaned it up. It's not official.

Oh. I thought you copied the real map. Hopefully someone will put up the real map or copy it, so that my tired old eyes can see it. I have trouble reading some of the maps put it.  That is why I make mine big and bright! 

2 pages back. It's there. It'll make you puke. Theirs are uglier than mine, but I based my layout off theirs and removed the 3 split counties.

[muon2]

Here's a link to the proposed plan as loaded into the contest software through a block equivalency file. You can use the software at the link to pan and zoom all the way to the block level. Use the "Set Map Layers" at the upper left to get rid of the shading for population for the thematic map. When you've zoomed to the block, you can use that same button to turn on mcdplaces for the reference layer to see where community lines are crossed.

https://districtbuilder.drawthelineohio.org/districtmapping/plan/1483/view/

[muon2]

The contest software calculates a partisan rating for each district. It's based on the two party vote from 2008 Presidential race and the Gov, SoS and Auditor races from 2010. Here's the ratings for the proposed map.

OH-01: R 56.25%
OH-02: R 56.82%
OH-03: D 66.22%
OH-04: R 58.40%
OH-05: R 56.61%
OH-06: R 53.86%
OH-07: R 56.16%
OH-08: R 62.00%
OH-09: D 62.32%
OH-10: R 57.85%
OH-11: D 79.67%
OH-12: R 60.94%
OH-13: D 62.30%
OH-14: R 54.36%
OH-15: R 57.47%
OH-16: R 56.62%

[Torie]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

[muon2]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

It's based on the two party vote from 2008 Presidential race and the Gov, SoS and Auditor races from 2010.

jimrtex and I have been discussion this rating on the competition thread. We suspect it gives a slightly more GOP tinge than exists in reality.

[Torie]

I mapped it on the DRA as best I could (ie. without splitting precincts and a little ambiguous on some municipality splits) and came up with this:

OH-1: Chabot (R-Cincinnati) R+6.73
OH-2: Schmidt (R-Loveland) R+8.72
OH-3: OPEN (D-Columbus) D+15.01
OH-4: Jordan (R-Urbana) R+8.20
OH-5: Latta (R-Bowling Green) R+6.27
OH-6: Johnson (R-Marietta) R+8.11
OH-7: Gibbs (R-Lakeville) R+6.06
OH-8: Boehner (R-West Chester) R+13.38
OH-9: Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Kucinich (D-Cleveland) D+12.17
OH-10: Turner (R-Dayton), and Austria (R-Beavercreek) R+6.78
OH-11: Fudge (D-Warrensville Hts.) D+28.36 50.28% Black VAP
OH-12: Tiberi (R-Galena) R+9.52
OH-13: Ryan (D-Niles) D+9.63
OH-14: LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp.) R+4.20
OH-15: Stivers (R-Columbus) R+7.56
OH-16: Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and Sutton (D-Copley)R+6.02

I am a little disappointed the GOP drew something that ugly and it isn't even an exceptionally well done gerrymander. A lot of the nasty-ness is just unnecessary.

I guess the mappers took Brittain33's advice seriously that the Butternut CD (OH-06) needed to really be Pubbed up to take into account all those "one time" McCain voters who otherwise love Dems.  

[Torie]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

It's based on the two party vote from 2008 Presidential race and the Gov, SoS and Auditor races from 2010.

jimrtex and I have been discussion this rating on the competition thread. We suspect it gives a slightly more GOP tinge than exists in reality.

Compared to the PVI numbers that TJ was good enough to generate, they look pretty close to those figures don't they?  Thanks TJ for doing that for us.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kaptur's office has made a big deal about the ugliness of OH-9 and a state legislator said:

"If Marcy Kaptur were to drive her district, she would have to drive into Lake Erie. She would have to put her car in a boat."

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/09/new_congressional_district_map.html

And the state legislator is completely right. There is no road through that little sliver of land connection in Ottawa County (and of course she'd have to take the Thomas Edison Memorial Bridge over the Sandusky Bay, which she already would need to do and would do if actually driving... and she also can't drive to the islands). But, this was pretty unnecessary. Just swapping one precinct would let her take Route 2.

Another thing I noticed trying to map this was the Ohio GOP split very, very few municipalities. That must be their argument for the atrocious county splits: they left close to all municipalities intact.

[muon2]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

Also, it's Stiver's crazy CD 15 that takes in Athens. Tiberi's 12th stays fairly compact and grabs Mansfield.

[TJ in Oregon]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

It's based on the two party vote from 2008 Presidential race and the Gov, SoS and Auditor races from 2010.

jimrtex and I have been discussion this rating on the competition thread. We suspect it gives a slightly more GOP tinge than exists in reality.

Compared to the PVI numbers that TJ was good enough to generate, they look pretty close to those figures don't they?  Thanks TJ for doing that for us.

Keep in mind these aren't truly PVI numbers but are based only on the 2008 election. It may not be as all-encompassing as the index but at least we should all have a feel for what constitutes 'safe' in 2008 terms.

Edit: Wow I can't spell.

[muon2]

Kaptur's office has made a big deal about the ugliness of OH-9 and a state legislator said:

"If Marcy Kaptur were to drive her district, she would have to drive into Lake Erie. She would have to put her car in a boat."

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/09/new_congressional_district_map.html

And the state legislator is completely right. There is no road through that little sliver of land connection in Ottawa County (and of course she'd have to take the Thomas Edison Memorial Bridge over the Sandusky Bay, which she already would need to do and would do if actually driving... and she also can't drive to the islands). But, this was pretty unnecessary. Just swapping one precinct would let her take Route 2.

Another thing I noticed trying to map this was the Ohio GOP split very, very few municipalities. That must be their argument for the atrocious county splits: they left close to all municipalities intact.

Municipal preservation is clearly their rationale for the county splits. It explains why Fudge's CD-11 takes in the GOP towns in NW Summit.

[TJ in Oregon]

Municipal preservation is clearly their rationale for the county splits. It explains why Fudge's CD-11 takes in the GOP towns in NW Summit.

That's the only possible explanation for the route they took from Cleveland to Akron even in the Cuyahoga County portion. Seven Hills and Broadview Heights are in OH-11 and are two of the more Republican cities around. I was expecting them to go through Walton Hills and follow the eastern shore to the Cuyahoga River. They also put a lot more of Akron into OH-11 than I expected. The Youngstown district isn't packed very well as a result. There are a lot of 50-55% Obama precincts in there that could be somewhere else.

The nice this is that the lack of municipality splits made it way easier to draw in the DRA.

[minionofmidas]

Who was the first on here to argue they might chop Toledo?
Give that man a price.

[Torie]

Who was the first on here to argue they might chop Toledo?
Give that man a price.

I chopped Toledo in my first map that took OH-09 into Cleveland. You have to, to get there and stay within the population limit. I must have excised about 20 precincts.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think this Toledo chop was well beyond what any of us had been expecting.

[muon2]

I think this Toledo chop was well beyond what any of us had been expecting.

But in some ways it's not too surprising. In the competition map, all of Lucas is kept intact with the hard R NW counties. The result is a district that is only 51.5% D. By keeping the most heavily black areas of Toledo in CD 9, the remainder is no problem for CD 4 and 5 to absorb.

[Torie]

I think this Toledo chop was well beyond what any of us had been expecting.

But in some ways it's not too surprising. In the competition map, all of Lucas is kept intact with the hard R NW counties. The result is a district that is only 51.5% D. By keeping the most heavily black areas of Toledo in CD 9, the remainder is no problem for CD 4 and 5 to absorb.

How many precincts did they take out of the city of Toledo itself? I think I took out about 20, maybe a tad more - basically everything over about 43% McCain or something that was within reach, or some such number. It in part entailed a snake running about one precinct wide and about 12 precincts deep in the southern part of Toledo, along with some bits on its west side. It was enough that the CD ceased to be a Lucas County dominated CD.

[minionofmidas]

They removed enough to have to split it between both Republican precincts in the area, and one of them still comes out semi-sorta marginal(-looking; those North Central Ohio smalltowns liked them some Obama. It's still safe in practice.), so probably quite a lot. Their 9th district is apparently more Cleveland than Toledo.

[TJ in Oregon]

They chopped off about half the city. My map is only a crude approximation because they split a bunch of precincts, but I did make the populations right to within a precinct or two. They split off precincts where McCain was in the 20s. The only reason I can see why they left most of that western wedge was because Kaptur lives there.