US House Redistricting: Ohio
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  US House Redistricting: Ohio
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Ohio  (Read 135439 times)
Torie
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« Reply #50 on: January 01, 2011, 09:58:07 PM »

The first thing I do now, is check where each Congressman lives. It turns out that Potts in PA-16 lives clear over in Eastern Chester County, even though most of his CD is in Lancaster County. What a bummer!  My PA CD map is going to look like a real mess - basically just a row of snakes in the central to eastern part of the state it looks like.

wrong thread cowboy...  Smiley

Well, in my defense, the first sentence was generically germane, and the balance giving an example of having to deal with residency issues vis a vis another state, an issue that just might crop up in Ohio. Beyond where Potts lives in PA-16, Tom Marino lives right on the edge of his district in PA-10 for example. That can potentially really constrict one's drawing style. You sir, I suspect, would be a hanging judge. Tongue
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2011, 09:13:28 PM »

Here's another stab at a 12-4 map:

State



NE Ohio



Columbus



OH-01 (blue, Steve Chabot - R) - Shaved off a bit of Cincinnati proper and added some of the suburbs SE of the city.
OH-02 (green, Jean Schmidt - R) - Stretches the length of the state now. Still should remain a pretty Republican district, and as long as Schmidt can keep her trap shut, she shouldn't have any trouble winning here.
OH-03 (purple, Mike Turner - R) - Includes almost all of Dayton now, but that's compensated for by having the district stretch north to the heavily-Republican rural counties.
OH-04 (red, Jim Jordan - R) - Cuts out part of Columbus to help Stivers. The rest of the district is pretty Republican, so it shouldn't endanger Jordan.
OH-05 (yellow, Bob Latta - R) - Wow, Ohio's Congressional delegation is generic. This district is mostly the same.
OH-06 (teal, Bill Johnson - R and Bob Gibbs - R) - Battle of the underwhelming freshmen! OH-06 and OH-18 are combined to make a Republican-leaning district.
OH-07 (grey, Steve Austria - R) - Seriously, have any of these white dudes done anything? This one cuts out part of Columbus, but again should be compensated for with some Republican parts in the southwest.
OH-08 (light purple, John Boehner - R) - Nobody's going to mess with the Speaker's seat, obviously. Takes in the (Republican) Dayton suburbs now.
OH-09 (sky blue, Marcy Katpur - D) - Hooray, a Democrat to talk about. This is the inevitable Toledo-to-Lorain district that everyone has been drawing for Kaptur.
OH-10 (magenta, Dennis Kucinich - D) - All the white, Democratic parts of Cuyahoga County, and a bit of Lake County. Safe for Kucinich.
OH-11 (light green, Marcia Fudge - D and Betty Sutton - D) - The black parts of Cleveland connected to Akron in order to maintain a majority-black district (52% black). Sutton's hometown of Copley has been split between this district and OH-16, and there's no chance of her winning a primary here or a general there.
OH-12 (very light purple, Pat Tiberi - R) - I kept Tiberi's portions of Columbus together because all the African-Americans are in OH-12, and splitting them up might cause a court fight. Expanded the outlying parts some to move the needle a couple points to the Republicans.
OH-13 (pink, Tim Ryan - D) - The former OH-17, it snakes from the Youngstown area down to Canton and Dover. I believe this puts ex-Reps. Boccieri and Space in the district just to spice things up a bit.
OH-14 (brown, Steve LaTourette - R) - Stretches down to the Akron/Canton suburbs; should remain Republican-leaning.
OH-15 (orange, Steve Stivers - R) - Cuts out a bunch of Columbus and stretches southeast in order to make this a much less swingy district. Wasn't sure where in Columbus Stivers lived, but he can always move.
OH-16 (light green, Jim Renacci - R) - Dumps Canton and expands north to the Cleveland and Akron suburbs, so it should be pretty safe Republican now.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #52 on: January 08, 2011, 06:53:32 AM »

Steve Austria is not a white dude.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #53 on: January 08, 2011, 09:39:05 AM »

Thanks, the ethnicity of a Republican backbencher is the one thing I wanted people to focus on.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #54 on: January 08, 2011, 12:15:25 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2011, 12:25:13 PM by dpmapper »



I revised my northeast map, scouring the Dem districts for any and all Republican areas.  LaTourette's district was the priority, for two reasons - 1) his is the hardest district to help, and 2) he has the seniority to demand it.  The easiest way to add GOP votes to his district is not to head south - the rural townships of Stark County are strong Republican, but to get there you have to go through parts of Summit that are 50/50 at best, more lean D (I'm using 2004 numbers), and these are more densely populated.  (On the east and south of Akron only Stow is lean GOP, and that's already in OH-14.)  If you go through Portage County then you need the Cleveland-Akron Dem district to take in Kent and Ravenna, which means it can't take all of the parts of Cuyahoga and Summit that you'd like it to.  

So to shore up LaTourette, you take in the southernmost Cuyahoga suburbs and rural northwest Summit County, all of which are reasonably R territory.  

Taking those into OH-14, and Norton into OH-16, allows OH-10 to take in more of East Akron, freeing up Ryan's district to take in pretty much all of Canton and Massillon from Renacci.  Renacci's district is then almost TOO strongly R - there wouldn't have been a single Dem-leaning area in it, I don't think - so I extended a finger down to grab the Dem-leaning cities (not to mention Zack Space's home) from Tuscarawas County; I don't know if that's necessary but what the heck.  

If this is not the optimal way to do the Dem pack, it's darned close - every R-leaning township other than the connecting strips has been taken out.  The only other thing you might try is pushing some of the Dem districts into Lake County, but then you have to worry about OH-11 dropping below 50% black (it's barely over 50% in my map).  

Addendum: I should mention that the parts in the north are unchanged from the previous map, that's why I cut it off.  
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cowboy300
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« Reply #55 on: January 08, 2011, 09:30:08 PM »

I think a 13-3 is possible if you split Toledo and give half to Jordan and the other half to Latta, meaning Kaptur and Sutton go.  Kucinich, Fudge and Ryan are left.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #56 on: January 08, 2011, 09:44:16 PM »


If you're going to fracture Columbus, is there a way to route Bob Latta into there as well?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2011, 10:16:35 PM »


If you're going to fracture Columbus, is there a way to route Bob Latta into there as well?

Not without a really tortured-looking map. I think once you start splitting counties more than four ways you get into overkill.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #58 on: January 27, 2011, 10:26:42 AM »

With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #59 on: January 27, 2011, 11:06:00 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2011, 11:10:32 AM by krazen1211 »

Thank you, muon2.

I did some rough math.

CD-16 is sitting at about 50/50. That's better than his current district but not really safe. Jim Jordan's CD-4 is about 56% McCain, I am not sure whether we can weaken that any more than I have. He's not exactly moderate.

CD-14 is also sitting at about 50/50, but that can't be helped.

CD-6's full counties are sitting about 53% McCain combined. The areas in Portage/Stark drag that down, though. To shore this district up, I think you can throw the town of Alliance into the 12th.

Every other district should be sitting about about 54% McCain or higher.

Don't overlook Sutton in your map. She lives right on the border of 14 and 16 as you've drawn it, and both districts are vulnerable to a Dem challenge. I think she would likely run in 16 since LaTourette is more entrenched in 14. In that case she would stand a good chance of winning in 2012, which I doubt would be the GOP's plan.

That's why I suggest making the district that includes Renacci much stronger than the other GOP districts in NE OH. You've already put Stivers or Gibbs out of a district so something has to be done to prevent the GOP conceding both seats in the reduction to 16 districts.
 

The new population estimates that just came out help my OH-16 a lot. It drops around 50k voters to the severely underpopulated OH-11 and picks them up in Richfield County.

I really firmly believe that the Democrats can be condensed into 3 Northern Ohio districts.

Really just minor tweaks from the previous map I posted.


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Brittain33
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« Reply #60 on: January 27, 2011, 11:35:15 AM »

No offense, but I think that red district in northern Ohio is quite unlikely in comparison with some of the other splits. What happens to the partisan balance of the map if Cleveland isn't linked with west-central Ohio?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2011, 11:47:13 AM »
« Edited: January 27, 2011, 12:02:02 PM by krazen1211 »

No offense, but I think that red district in northern Ohio is quite unlikely in comparison with some of the other splits. What happens to the partisan balance of the map if Cleveland isn't linked with west-central Ohio?

Technically its not Cleveland; its a combination of the west/south suburbs of Cleveland that vote betweeen 45-53% McCain, and about 500k people.

You can put it all in 1 district along with Huron and Seneca county and get something that's a tossup and a new district.

You can put it all in 1 district along with Medina county and get something that's a tossup for Renacci.

Or you can split it in 2 and do what I did, and get 2 relatively safe Republican districts. I suppose you could give the red half the yellow district instead, but the yellow district isn't that strong since it has Wood and a piece of Lucas County.


Something like this might perhaps be more politically viable as it puts Cuyahoga in a Northern Ohio district rather than a Central Ohio one, and still does something useful with the excess Republicans in the 4th.


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dpmapper
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« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2011, 02:11:56 PM »

With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.

Sure there is.





I think it's much more likely that the GOP will keep 4 Dem districts in N/NE Ohio and keep the Columbus split.  I doubt that it's any less of a Dem pack if you do it that way (but feel free to crunch the numbers if you think I'm wrong).  Drawing districts that stretch from Cuyahoga to west of Columbus is pretty egregious, and would cause a lot of disruption to incumbents.  All that would be avoided if you just maintained the Columbus split, which the GOP knows it can win.  
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krazen1211
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« Reply #63 on: January 27, 2011, 03:12:03 PM »

With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.

Sure there is.





I think it's much more likely that the GOP will keep 4 Dem districts in N/NE Ohio and keep the Columbus split.  I doubt that it's any less of a Dem pack if you do it that way (but feel free to crunch the numbers if you think I'm wrong).  Drawing districts that stretch from Cuyahoga to west of Columbus is pretty egregious, and would cause a lot of disruption to incumbents.  All that would be avoided if you just maintained the Columbus split, which the GOP knows it can win.  

I'm 100% sure the math works in my favor.

Basically, we already know that we can put the entire city of Akron in Tim Ryan's district. So, by splitting Akron and running Tim Ryan into Stark county, all you're gaining there is the loss of is Canton, Alliance, and some areas in between.

So basically, if you look at south/west Cuyahoga, Canton, and Alliance:

Alliance is about 75% Dem and 11k ballots cast.
Canton City is about 72% Dem and 46k ballots cast.
The entire section of Cuyahoga you put in the pink district is 56% Dem and 180k ballots.


That's a 60% obama district.


Now, Franklin County is about 1150k people. We can pack the most liberal 718
k people into a compact district here. That's 63% of the whole county. I basically took the county results, sorted them by highest Obama percentage, and plucked out 2/3 of the total.


The math on that ends up at a 71% Obama district. More importantly, this area grew by 35% in the last decade.
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Torie
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« Reply #64 on: January 27, 2011, 05:56:36 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2011, 11:50:38 PM by Torie »

So, with the new numbers, the Dems have the Youngstown-Akron CD, the inner city Cleveland CD, the Toledo etc CD, and a Columbus CD, is that correct?  I think it wise to cede a Columbus CD to the Dems - always have. That place is a ticking time bomb for the GOP (government workers and university denizens plus blacks is one demographic the GOP needs to just avoid having in their CD's), and demographically active. It could sink a couple of Pubbies, if they are given the wrong slice of it over time.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2011, 08:10:36 PM »

So, with the new numbers, the Dems have the Youngstown-Akron CD, the inner city Cleveland CD, the Toledo etc CD, and a Columbus CD, is that correct?  I think it wise to cede a Columbus CD to the Dems - always have. That place is a ticking time bomb for the GOP (government workers and university denizens plus blacks is one demographic the GOP needs to just avoid) having in their CD's), and demographically active. It could sink a couple of Pubbies, if they are given the wrong slice of it over time.

Yep. I don't have your matrix skills, but just roughly:

CD-1: R+6
CD-2: R+9
CD-3: R+6
CD-4: R+10
CD-5: R+8
CD-6: R+4
CD-7: R+7
CD-8: R+14
CD-14: R+3
CD-16: R+4


I can't really easily calculate the 2 former Columbus districts (12 and 15). They used to be D+1; I'm just going to assert that they're on the R side now and call it a day.
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Torie
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« Reply #66 on: January 28, 2011, 12:39:15 AM »

I wonder if a Dem Columbus CD, after corralling the most Dem precincts, might slip out of Franklin County, and capture some heavily Dem precincts elsewhere, the way I did for IN-07, which broke out of Indianapolis via a river and corridor of green space (so not very many Pubbies were wasted), to get down south to visit the University of Indiana.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #67 on: January 28, 2011, 09:53:50 AM »

I wonder if a Dem Columbus CD, after corralling the most Dem precincts, might slip out of Franklin County, and capture some heavily Dem precincts elsewhere, the way I did for IN-07, which broke out of Indianapolis via a river and corridor of green space (so not very many Pubbies were wasted), to get down south to visit the University of Indiana.

There is. Dayton. 100k blacks in 90+% precincts there. It ends up helping Mike Turner I guess, though he has not needed it.
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Torie
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« Reply #68 on: January 28, 2011, 10:24:18 AM »

I wonder if a Dem Columbus CD, after corralling the most Dem precincts, might slip out of Franklin County, and capture some heavily Dem precincts elsewhere, the way I did for IN-07, which broke out of Indianapolis via a river and corridor of green space (so not very many Pubbies were wasted), to get down south to visit the University of Indiana.

There is. Dayton. 100k blacks in 90+% precincts there. It ends up helping Mike Turner I guess, though he has not needed it.

I was thinking of the Columbus CD heading towards the Cleveland area, where there are more Dems than Pubbies, to ease the pressure on whatever GOP CD you guys are plotting to carve out there - in essence basically "stealing" a seat from the Dems. Southwest Ohio has plenty of Pubbies to contain the Dems down there.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #69 on: January 28, 2011, 10:28:28 AM »



Unconstitutional racial gerrymander or no? (52% black)
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krazen1211
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« Reply #70 on: January 28, 2011, 10:47:36 AM »

I wonder if a Dem Columbus CD, after corralling the most Dem precincts, might slip out of Franklin County, and capture some heavily Dem precincts elsewhere, the way I did for IN-07, which broke out of Indianapolis via a river and corridor of green space (so not very many Pubbies were wasted), to get down south to visit the University of Indiana.

There is. Dayton. 100k blacks in 90+% precincts there. It ends up helping Mike Turner I guess, though he has not needed it.

I was thinking of the Columbus CD heading towards the Cleveland area, where there are more Dems than Pubbies, to ease the pressure on whatever GOP CD you guys are plotting to carve out there - in essence basically "stealing" a seat from the Dems. Southwest Ohio has plenty of Pubbies to contain the Dems down there.

Not really. Licking and Knox county don't have any Democrats. You'd have to run all the way up to Tuscawaras or Stark County, and you'd cut through so many Pubbies on the way to get at 45k Dems in Canton.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #71 on: January 28, 2011, 10:49:37 AM »



Unconstitutional racial gerrymander or no? (52% black)

I can't see how that isn't. And it looks like you combine Chabot and Boehner, too.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #72 on: January 28, 2011, 12:27:32 PM »

Chabot could just move to the western end of the city. He'd get a safe district in return.

I mean, it does have the advantage of making pretty much every other seat outside of the Cleveland/Youngstown/Toledo districts safe for the Republicans.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #73 on: January 28, 2011, 03:44:34 PM »

What are the specifics of VRA Section 2 case law, exactly? Could Ohio, were they to draw that district, just claim it's a perfectly legal partisan gerrymander? Would it be legal if it was plurality white instead?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #74 on: January 28, 2011, 04:21:44 PM »

What are the specifics of VRA Section 2 case law, exactly? Could Ohio, were they to draw that district, just claim it's a perfectly legal partisan gerrymander? Would it be legal if it was plurality white instead?

You could swear up and down that you only looked at voting data and not racial data when drawing that district, yeah. North Carolina did that about a decade ago with the 12th. The question is whether that claim is believable.

It is of course pointless. The only guy who needs help there is Chabot, and there are 3 Republican seats right next door that can skim 40k or so voters each.

Turner doesn't need the help either. There are precincts where McCain got 2 votes and Turner got 80.
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