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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Ohio  (Read 47074 times)
Torie
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« Reply #75 on: January 28, 2011, 04:31:20 pm »
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What are the specifics of VRA Section 2 case law, exactly? Could Ohio, were they to draw that district, just claim it's a perfectly legal partisan gerrymander? Would it be legal if it was plurality white instead?

You could swear up and down that you only looked at voting data and not racial data when drawing that district, yeah. North Carolina did that about a decade ago with the 12th. The question is whether that claim is believable.

It is of course pointless. The only guy who needs help there is Chabot, and there are 3 Republican seats right next door that can skim 40k or so voters each.

Turner doesn't need the help either. There are precincts where McCain got 2 votes and Turner got 80.

Turner might not be around forever. What is the McCain % in your Turner CD, if I may ask?
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« Reply #76 on: January 28, 2011, 05:07:39 pm »
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Turner's is roughly 54% McCain. I might have strengthened him too much by giving him all of Warren County; perhaps I'll give some of it back to Schmidt.

Schmidt has 60% McCain in the full counties and 250k voters in Hamilton that I'll have to crunch by hand.
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Torie
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« Reply #77 on: January 28, 2011, 08:58:21 pm »
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Turner's is roughly 54% McCain. I might have strengthened him too much by giving him all of Warren County; perhaps I'll give some of it back to Schmidt.

Schmidt has 60% McCain in the full counties and 250k voters in Hamilton that I'll have to crunch by hand.

I would not have the Schmidt CD more than maybe 2%  more McCain than the Turner CD myself. It is a mistake IMO to prop up a weak incumbent too much (or shave too close a CD because it has a strong incumbent like Turner), because the personalities can change, and sometimes it is good to flush an embarrassment in any event, particularly if it is probable a presentable GOP challenger can take the seat back. Schmidt in any event is less of an under performer than she was. She won 59-34 in 2010, which probably runs ahead of the McCain percentages. In 2008 she won 45-37. 
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krazen1211
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« Reply #78 on: January 28, 2011, 10:25:45 pm »
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Turner's is roughly 54% McCain. I might have strengthened him too much by giving him all of Warren County; perhaps I'll give some of it back to Schmidt.

Schmidt has 60% McCain in the full counties and 250k voters in Hamilton that I'll have to crunch by hand.

I would not have the Schmidt CD more than maybe 2%  more McCain than the Turner CD myself. It is a mistake IMO to prop up a weak incumbent too much (or shave too close a CD because it has a strong incumbent like Turner), because the personalities can change, and sometimes it is good to flush an embarrassment in any event, particularly if it is probable a presentable GOP challenger can take the seat back. Schmidt in any event is less of an under performer than she was. She won 59-34 in 2010, which probably runs ahead of the McCain percentages. In 2008 she won 45-37.  

I generally agree with the idea here.

Anyway,  Schmidt comes out at about a 54% McCain district, and Chabot at a 51% district. Chabot can be beefed up some more by bringing Boehner south, but I assume that option is off the table. The only other guy with a 51% district on my map is Bill Johnson who's stuck with about half of Mahoning county (although the good half).

Latuorette has a 50% McCain district.

In any case, Hamilton county was a 52% Bush county that swung into a 53% Obama county and then into a 59% Portman county. It remains to be seen what its long term trends are.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2011, 10:46:21 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #79 on: January 28, 2011, 10:36:54 pm »
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Well Portman has deep roots in Hamilton county. And his numbers in the 2nd district were just pure murder back in the day, really. And make even Schmidt's 59% look like chicken feed.
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« Reply #80 on: January 28, 2011, 10:47:25 pm »
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Well Portman has deep roots in Hamilton county. And his numbers in the 2nd district were just pure murder back in the day, really. And make even Schmidt's 59% look like chicken feed.

That's what makes me wonder why the districts were drawn that way. Surely someone must have realized that giving Chabot all those blacks was a bad idea.
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« Reply #81 on: January 29, 2011, 02:55:45 pm »

With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.

If you connect CD 11 to Akron through Twinsburg a 54% black district is possible. CD 16 then connects Youngstown/Warren to Canton/Massillon and Kent. CD 14 remains pretty much as is.
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« Reply #82 on: February 10, 2011, 01:01:10 am »
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I made this plan with three guidelines;

1. If possible, maintain county lines
2. Population deviation between -75 and +75
3. Try where possible to maintain current 'flavour' of existing districts.

Number two was the most important, and all districts except District 2 meet this criteria.







District 11 is just a simple majority African-American.

Obviously this plan is far from perfect, but it's my starting point, and I'll aim to refine from here. I really dislike Mansfield, and I'm not sure about the Springfield - Columbus district.

Album link in case pics don't load: http://img211.imageshack.us/g/ohiototal.jpg/
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 09:00:00 am by No aphrodisiac like Platypus »Logged

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« Reply #83 on: February 10, 2011, 04:29:29 pm »
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I made this plan with three guidelines;

1. If possible, maintain county lines
2. Population deviation between -75 and +75
3. Try where possible to maintain current 'flavour' of existing districts.

Number two was the most important, and all districts except District 2 meet this criteria.







District 11 is just a simple majority African-American.

Obviously this plan is far from perfect, but it's my starting point, and I'll aim to refine from here. I really dislike Mansfield, and I'm not sure about the Springfield - Columbus district.

Album link in case pics don't load: http://img211.imageshack.us/g/ohiototal.jpg/

This is not a critique since your goal doesn't seem to be party/incumbent favoritism but I don't think Tiberi would like your 12th district very much.  Taking in that much of Franklin County might actually knock him in out in 2012.  The 15th looks like it would probably remain very competitive but I'm not sure I like the Columbus-Springfield connection.  Also, your new 5th is probably a lot more Democratic leaning than the current and could probably be considered competitive in a 2006/2008 type of year.  All the Democrats look safe or comfortable enough to get re-elected.
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« Reply #84 on: February 10, 2011, 08:58:14 pm »
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I think the 12th is certainly vulnerable to attack, and I agree with you on the Springfield-Columbus link.

I think it's basically a map that favours the Republicans because it reflects the past map, but is far more open to challenge from the right Democratic candidates. It's the kind of map the GOP could propose if they wanted to claim neutrality but only lose 1-2 seats.
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« Reply #85 on: March 07, 2011, 09:45:34 pm »
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With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.

If you connect CD 11 to Akron through Twinsburg a 54% black district is possible. CD 16 then connects Youngstown/Warren to Canton/Massillon and Kent. CD 14 remains pretty much as is.


Hit the nail on the head.

Cleveland must have gotten REALLY hosed in the census.

http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2011/03/going_far_afield_to_make_a_min.html


Census figures for Ohio, which will be released this week, are expected to show that Rep. Marcia Fudge's present district -- which includes all of Cleveland's East Side, some of the West Side and many of Cuyahoga County's eastern suburbs -- will have to expand by 125,000 to 190,000 residents.
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« Reply #86 on: March 08, 2011, 01:33:59 am »
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With the new ACS estimates, my OH-11 is under by 50,000 voters. I don't think there's going to be any way to keep Fudge's district majority-black.

If you connect CD 11 to Akron through Twinsburg a 54% black district is possible. CD 16 then connects Youngstown/Warren to Canton/Massillon and Kent. CD 14 remains pretty much as is.


Hit the nail on the head.

Cleveland must have gotten REALLY hosed in the census.

http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2011/03/going_far_afield_to_make_a_min.html


Census figures for Ohio, which will be released this week, are expected to show that Rep. Marcia Fudge's present district -- which includes all of Cleveland's East Side, some of the West Side and many of Cuyahoga County's eastern suburbs -- will have to expand by 125,000 to 190,000 residents.
Losing two districts requires a 12.5% increase just to adjust for the loss of the seats.  So that is around 80,000.  I think it will be possible to include all of Cleveland in the majority black district.  It should make for an interesting primary.
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« Reply #87 on: March 08, 2011, 09:16:29 am »
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Losing two districts requires a 12.5% increase just to adjust for the loss of the seats.  So that is around 80,000.  I think it will be possible to include all of Cleveland in the majority black district.  It should make for an interesting primary.


I think so too. Cleveland, Akron, and Lorain can all go in CD-11, CD-17, and CD-9, respectively. That's my basis for the double crunch of both Kucinich and Sutton in my maps.

Barbells unfortunately screws that up.
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« Reply #88 on: March 08, 2011, 11:57:58 am »
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With the neutron bomb that dropped on Cleveland causing so many folks to vanish (mostly Dems), how many seats are the Dems down to in Ohio now, if the GOP does an intelligent gerrymander? I still don't like the idea of not giving the Dems a Columbus seat, but if someone has some hard data that it remains prudent to still chop up Columbus among a bunch of Pubbie seats, taking into consideration that the number of Democrats in the Columbus area will continue to grow robustly, I would like to see it.
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« Reply #89 on: March 08, 2011, 05:01:44 pm »
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With the neutron bomb that dropped on Cleveland causing so many folks to vanish (mostly Dems), how many seats are the Dems down to in Ohio now, if the GOP does an intelligent gerrymander? I still don't like the idea of not giving the Dems a Columbus seat, but if someone has some hard data that it remains prudent to still chop up Columbus among a bunch of Pubbie seats, taking into consideration that the number of Democrats in the Columbus area will continue to grow robustly, I would like to see it.

I think it's more that Ohio Republicans (especially in Central Ohio) don't want to screw Stivers than anything else.  From a gerrymandering standpoint, you're right, but there are other interests that will also need to be taken into account (which is also why I think the Republicans are going screw Johnson, instead of trying to knock out two Democrats in the Northeast).
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« Reply #90 on: March 08, 2011, 06:05:29 pm »
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As a resident of Columbus, I think it needs its own seat. Especially with all the population growth that we've had in comparison with the rest of the state. The city itself isn't failing like Cincinnati or especially Cleveland. We have a booming African immigrant population that's keeping our numbers up. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Louisville all have seats that are centered around that downtown area. Columbus should too. I think it would actually benefit the Republicans to cut off Stivers as it takes two marginal districts that could both flip with the right candidates probably even after redistricting and just make one very safe district. Along with the slivering up they're going to do to Cuyahoga and the surrounding area, it just makes sense.

Mayor Coleman would be a solid candidate for a Columbus seat...
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« Reply #91 on: March 08, 2011, 06:16:11 pm »
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With the neutron bomb that dropped on Cleveland causing so many folks to vanish (mostly Dems), how many seats are the Dems down to in Ohio now, if the GOP does an intelligent gerrymander? I still don't like the idea of not giving the Dems a Columbus seat, but if someone has some hard data that it remains prudent to still chop up Columbus among a bunch of Pubbie seats, taking into consideration that the number of Democrats in the Columbus area will continue to grow robustly, I would like to see it.

I still believe the 4 district plan still holds: Kaptur, Fudge, Ryan, and some new dude in Columbus.

It's not at all hard to put Johnson in a McCain seat. While this area I think is more Democratic on the local level than the Presidential level, Johnson still might be able to hold it if he can hold down margins in the Mahoning Valley.
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« Reply #92 on: March 08, 2011, 08:50:19 pm »
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The problem is that there is no way Johnson survives once there is a wave or at least pretty good Democratic year. Now you can probably give him the best district possible and hope he survives as long as he can and maybe even build up a bit of a personal vote if that wave comes, but it'd be a waste to try to make rock solid. Kind of the attitude the PA Republicans have taken to Barletta.
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« Reply #93 on: March 08, 2011, 11:10:34 pm »
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I think the Republicans can do a 13-3 map. Columbus can be easily handled by splitting it in four with Jim Jordan also coming in. His district is currently R+15, so there is no reason other than a court order why the Republicans would add a Democratic seat in Columbus. There is no way to make both Stivers and Tiberi completely safe, but they should both have a better than 50/50 chance of winning re-election if the seats are drawn properly. Maybe a lawsuit will prevent them from cutting Columbus into 4, though nothing has stopped them from cutting into 3, so they may as well try.

The tricky part is the west side of Cleveland because to get a 13-3 map the only remotely feasible thing to do is cut up the 10th and 13th and run Renacci up into the west side of Cleveland. All of the very Democratic parts of the 10th would need to be added to the 11th, which will need alot more people anyways. Akron should be added to the Youngstown district and Lorain and Elyria should be added to the Toledo district. By selecting the right parts of Cuyahoga County you can get down to 54% in that part of the new Renacci district alone and down to 52% (PVR R+1) by adding Medina county and the right parts of Lorain County. This is essentially a toss-up between Renacci and Kucinich, but it wouldn't really help any other districts very much not to try this.
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« Reply #94 on: March 09, 2011, 08:09:45 am »
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You can't append parts of OH-10 to OH-11, since the former is overwhelmingly white and the latter needs to be majority-black, or at least as close to it as possible.
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« Reply #95 on: March 09, 2011, 03:20:26 pm »
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The only way to keep OH 11 majority black is to attach inner-city Akron to it via I-77 or the Cuyahoga River. No matter what you do, you will have to append some white areas to it because the 11th is so badly underpopulated. Once the census comes out, draw the 11th into Akron to get 50% + 1 VAP black and still absorb as much of the West side as possible. You should be able to get all of Cleveland except the 18th and 19th wards, which are only about 55% Obama. The Akron connection would be erose, but you have to do that to get to 50% + 1 anyways. There aren't enough black people just in Cuyahoga County for an entire district. The 10th is overwhelmingly white, but so are the surrounding parts of the 13th and 14th. The 11th needs so many people that it's hard to imagine it not picking up more of the west side.
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« Reply #96 on: March 09, 2011, 03:58:14 pm »
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The only way to keep OH 11 majority black is to attach inner-city Akron to it via I-77 or the Cuyahoga River. No matter what you do, you will have to append some white areas to it because the 11th is so badly underpopulated. Once the census comes out, draw the 11th into Akron to get 50% + 1 VAP black and still absorb as much of the West side as possible. You should be able to get all of Cleveland except the 18th and 19th wards, which are only about 55% Obama. The Akron connection would be erose, but you have to do that to get to 50% + 1 anyways. There aren't enough black people just in Cuyahoga County for an entire district. The 10th is overwhelmingly white, but so are the surrounding parts of the 13th and 14th. The 11th needs so many people that it's hard to imagine it not picking up more of the west side.

The numbers came out today.  Cuyahoga has 380,198 African-Americans before taking into account Hispanic status.  Summit has another 78,120.

Every CD should have around 721,000 residents, meaning 360,500+ is needed for a majority.  If you could capture all of Cuyahoga's blacks, you'd be at 52.7% - before taking into account VAP.  I'd have to download the whole census file to get the county's VAP, but the African-American VAP percentage is almost certainly lower than that - possibly even less than a majority.

So, yes, appending Summit will likely be necessary to create an effective African-American district in Northeast Ohio.  I doubt you'd be able to capture every Cuyahoga County African-American even if you tried - and the county is entitled to about 1.8 of Ohio's 16 CDs.
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« Reply #97 on: March 09, 2011, 05:18:33 pm »
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Of course you can't capture every black in a CD that does not take in the whole county!  I doubt every precinct in Cuyahoga County not in the black CD has zero blacks in it. Smiley
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« Reply #98 on: March 09, 2011, 06:15:36 pm »
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This is what a Dem pack in Cuyahoga looks like:




Racial stats based on the old 2000 data are 49.1% black, 42.2% white, 5.1% hispanic. At a guess, such a district would be sub 50% white even with the new data.


The purple is the Republican (45+% McCain) areas of Cuyahoga, totalling about 273k people.

The pink is the shattered remains of Kucinich's 10th after Fudge takes his best precincts. These areas area about 40% McCain and total about 234k people.

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« Reply #99 on: March 09, 2011, 08:10:59 pm »
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You can't append parts of OH-10 to OH-11, since the former is overwhelmingly white and the latter needs to be majority-black, or at least as close to it as possible.

Not really--The part of Cleveland in the district is not all that white (72%, though there are more Hispanics than Blacks), and it contains basically all the blacks in Cuyahoga county that aren't already in the 11th.  Its the least-white place nearby.
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