US House Redistricting: Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

I decided to try and make a ‘safe’ 11-1-4 map, eliminating Jean Schmidt and forcing Stivers to run for the Senate to pack Columbus. I was originally trying for 11-5, but you’d pretty much have to gerrymander it in Kucinich’s favor to keep him and making his seat more Democratic really doesn’t help any of the Republicans. All it would really do is make Fudge’s seat D+30 instead of D+32. I also really tried to draw neat lines and keep counties whole (except the VRA district because you can’t). I think this map is much less gerrymandered than the current one and drawn less for incumbents.


1.   Dark Green (Steve Chabot R-Cincinnati): McCain 50.7- Obama 48.2 R+5

Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) also lives here but I can’t imagine her winning a primary. Chabot should be safe here for the next decade since he loses a third or so of the black parts of Cincinnati to Boehner. The PVI is a little understated here because Obama did better than normal for a Democrat in Cincinnati.

2.   Gold (Open D-Columbus):  Obama 69.3-McCain 29.1 D+17

Here’s the Columbus pack instead of Schmidt’s old district. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) probably lives here but he can never win this district. He’ll either need to challenge Jim Jordan in OH-4 or Pat Tiberi in OH-15 or run for the Senate. Mary Jo Kilroy would have a good chance of taking back this seat.

3.   Brown (Mike Turner R-Dayton): McCain 51.7- Obama 46.8 R+6

Mike Turner would be very safe here and it makes the whole southwest corner of the state fit pretty neatly along county lines. The PVI is a little low but Turner will do better with inner-city Dayton than any other Republican. This should be Likely R even if Turner retires.
 
4.   Electric Blue (Jim Jordan R-Urbana): McCain 58.1- Obama 40.1 R+13

Stivers may try to run here instead of running for Senate, though Jordan has been listed as a possible Senate candidate so perhaps this might persuade him. Unfortunately, this seat covers a lot of new territory but it isn’t hideous looking like OH-4 on most of these maps. It should be Safe R barring a major scandal.

5.   Red (Bob Latta R-Bowling Green): McCain 58.6- Obama 39.6 R+13

Latta would like this district a lot and it makes him even safer than he already is.

6.   Dark Teal (Bill Johnson R-Poland): McCain 50.9- Obama 46.9 R+6

This is one of the hardest districts to make safe because there just aren’t any dependably Republican areas around. It’s safer than the current district at least.

7.   Gray (Steve Austria R-Beavercreek): McCain 54.8- Obama 43.2 R+9

Austria would have to cover a lot of new territory but someone has to take the far southern part of the state and it should be a pretty safe district for him still. The western section of the Ohio river is much more dependably Republican than the eastern section. He also gets all of Athens except Coolville (which is the Republican part) to help Johnson.

8.   Cornflower Blue (John Boehner R-West Chester): 55.4- Obama 43.4 R+10

This is one of the potential problems with this map for the Republicans because Boehner may demand a safer district or to keep more of his old territory, although this is centered more around his home and the areas he grew up in. The main purpose here is to help secure Chabot without jeopardizing Boehner. This is also much more compact than the old district and stays in one metropolitan area.

9.   Cyan (Marcy Kaptur D-Toledo): Obama 63.7-McCain 34.7 D+11

The only major changes are that Kaptur now has northern Lorain County instead of southern Lorain County and that she loses some outer Toledo suburbs due to population changes. Ohio’s current longest serving US Representative can stay for 10 more years if she wants to.

10.   Lime Green (Dennis Kucinich D-Cleveland): Obama 51.8-McCain 46.8 R+2

This is the toss-up seat though Kucinich will likely lose if he ran here. I’d expect former Cuyahoga County Republican chairman Rob Frost to run for this seat and win against Kucinich. The local press is already printing articles about it and we don’t even have a map yet. However, this seat could easily become Dem later in the decade if the Republicans have a bad year and the Dem isn’t Kucinich. I would, however, expect Kucinich to try and run here because this map is much more favorable to him than any of the others being discussed.

11.   Yellow (Marcia Fudge D-Warrensville Heights): Obama 85.3-McCain 14.0 D+32, 51.1% VAP black, VRA black

Since there aren’t enough blacks in Cleveland for a district and it needs the tail through the Cuyahoga Valley National Park to inner city Akron to be VRA compliant, this will be the ugliest shaped district in the state. However, the speaker of the Ohio House William Batchelder has told all the local black leaders that this district will be drawn in something similar to this form. Fudge could probably murder someone and still get re-elected here (though Congresswoman Fudge is generally a quiet, responsible person who wouldn’t do something crazy anyway). I also live here currently.

12.   Navy Blue (Tim Ryan D-Niles, also Betty Sutton D-Copley): Obama 62.4-McCain 35.7 D+10

Ryan would win the primary and probably the generally election fairly easily unless something crazy happens like Jim Trafficant making a comeback for his old seat as an independent, splitting the Democratic vote. It probably won’t happen but I wouldn’t put anything past the Youngstown Democrats. This district is Safe Dem as it stands now, but could start to drift toward competitiveness toward the end of the decade once no one is left living in Youngstown and Warren.

13.    Pink (Jim Renacci R-Wadsworth): McCain 50.6-Obama 47.5 R+5

Renacci should love this map since he keeps most of his old territory, loses inner-city Akron and gains more of heavily GOP Ashland County.

14.   Tan (Steve LaTourette R-Bainbridge Township): Obama 49.4-McCain 49.1 R+3

There’s really not much you can do to make this district safer because it is trapped by Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown. LaTourette will be safe here until he retires but it would be lean GOP after that.
 
15.   Maroon (Pat Tiberi R-Galena): McCain 54.9-Obama 43.7  R+9

Biting the bullet on a Columbus pack will make this safe. This area is trending toward the Democrats so a high PVI is necessary for 2020 if Tiberi retires before then. There is also a chance Stivers would try to run here.

16.    Black (Gibbs R-Lakeland): McCain 54.8-Obama 42.9  R+10

Gibbs would be quite safe here even though it has a lot of new territory.

[krazen1211]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

The chairman of the Republican Study Committee? Sounds like a reasonable target to me!

[BigSkyBob]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

Of course, targeting Jordon will result in the Republican legislators whom vote to screw him being targeted in turn.

Let it play out!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Jim Jordan's hijinks as head of the Republican Study Committee may lose him his seat.

Edit: I see this was already posted in the Ohio redistricting contest thread for some reason.

[Padfoot]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

That won't happen. Turner and Austria are in the way.

Of course, it's very easy to give Jordan the ultimate "f--- you" by putting him in Boehner's district.

[Bo]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

The chairman of the Republican Study Committee? Sounds like a reasonable target to me!

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/07/john_boehner_says_he_is_not_pu.html

Now Boehner is saying that he won't target Jordan. He could change his mind, though, or think something else in private.

[BigSkyBob]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

That won't happen. Turner and Austria are in the way.

Of course, it's very easy to give Jordan the ultimate "f--- you" by putting him in Boehner's district.

That assumes Jordan doesn't beat Boehner. That is just an assumption on your part.

I have to take issue with the rhetoric of "open defiance." Jim Jordan  was elected to represent the folks in the 4th district. He took an oath of loyality to the Constitution of the United States of America. He did not swear an oath to a political party, or its officiers.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

That won't happen. Turner and Austria are in the way.

Of course, it's very easy to give Jordan the ultimate "f--- you" by putting him in Boehner's district.

That assumes Jordan doesn't beat Boehner. That is just an assumption on your part.

I have to take issue with the rhetoric of "open defiance." Jim Jordan  was elected to represent the folks in the 4th district. He took an oath of loyality to the Constitution of the United States of America. He did not swear an oath to a political party, or its officiers.

While it is, of course, possible that Jordan can beat Boehner, I consider that possibility very remote. The plan that draws Jordan into Boehner's district would carve up the existing 4th. The 8th would probably only absorb Jordan's home county of Champaign, while the rest of the district would be carved up among Latta, Stivers, Tiberi,  and possibly even Renacci. This means that Boehner's base would remain intact. Also, the NRCC would undoubtedly support the Speaker over the thorn in the Speaker's side.

[BigSkyBob]

Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

That won't happen. Turner and Austria are in the way.

Of course, it's very easy to give Jordan the ultimate "f--- you" by putting him in Boehner's district.

That assumes Jordan doesn't beat Boehner. That is just an assumption on your part.

I have to take issue with the rhetoric of "open defiance." Jim Jordan  was elected to represent the folks in the 4th district. He took an oath of loyalty to the Constitution of the United States of America. He did not swear an oath to a political party, or its officers.

While it is, of course, possible that Jordan can beat Boehner, I consider that possibility very remote. The plan that draws Jordan into Boehner's district would carve up the existing 4th. The 8th would probably only absorb Jordan's home county of Champaign, while the rest of the district would be carved up among Latta, Stivers, Tiberi,  and possibly even Renacci. This means that Boehner's base would remain intact. Also, the NRCC would undoubtedly support the Speaker over the thorn in the Speaker's side.

No doubt, the powers that be might very well try to stack the deck against Jordan. Then again, if the electorate in Ohio is for Jordan, it won't particularly matter.

I think it is a bit of an academic exercise. The question is simply who is in a position to punish whom?  Can the establishment meaningfully punish the Tea Party, or can the Tea Party punish the establishment? All this talk is predicated on the assumption that the establishment is flexing its muscle and putting some upstart in his place. The openness in which Jordan was threatened, I predict, will backfire. The establishment will back off out of fear of retribution from the Tea Party. Undoubtedly, Tea Party members will be screwed in redistricting, but, Jordan will probably not be one of them.

[Torie]

Jim Jordan's hijinks as head of the Republican Study Committee may lose him his seat.

Edit: I see this was already posted in the Ohio redistricting contest thread for some reason.

"One of the biggest thorns in Boehner’s side has been fellow Ohioan Jim Jordan, the chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee. Earlier in the week, Republican lawmakers called for the firing of Jordan aides after it was revealed they had been coordinating an effort to “target” possible GOP “yes” votes with an outside interest group. The Columbus Dispatch reported Thursday that state legislators are working to splinter Jordan’s home turf in redistricting as retribution for his intransigence. By late Thursday night, GOP insiders were accusing Jordan of working his way into leadership meetings with rank-and-file members to disrupt their efforts to flip votes into the “yes” column."

I should probably engage in the exercise of "splintering" Jordan's CD just for kicks. It would be just such a piece of cake to do.  I could put his home in Boehner's district!  

[muon2]

Jim Jordan's hijinks as head of the Republican Study Committee may lose him his seat.

Edit: I see this was already posted in the Ohio redistricting contest thread for some reason.

I've consolidated it all back here. That leaves the contest thread for the contest.

[krazen1211]

Steve Latuorette is in charge.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/08/redistricting_gets_rolling_in.html

GOP Congressman Steve LaTourette of Bainbridge Township said he's been tapped by Boehner to put together the map that Ohio's Republican delegation will seek to see enacted by state lawmakers.

He said one Democratic district and one Republican district will be eliminated in the Ohio delegation's proposal. He acknowledged that "Cuyahoga County can't support all those congressional districts," but wouldn't say if Kucinich's district was the one headed for the junk yard.

[Torie]

Wimps!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wimps!

Well I guess that settles that debate!

[Torie]

Per LaTourette's marching orders, flushing one Pubbie CD and one Dem one, below is my approach. OH-05, 07, 09, 11, 12 and 15 are tentatively close to final form. The lost Pubbie CD has to be ceding Columbus to the Dems. Anything else is kind of nutter really when you think about it. And that means Stivers and Jordan will be packed together, and I am sure LaTourette will try to stack the deck in favor of Stivers (who will have to move out of his cute house in a sea of Dems in Columbus). Tiberi is not running for the Senate, so his CD now takes in the marginal Lorain County burbs, since he is used to representing suburban Pubbies (I suspect Jordan would really underperform there, so the idea of putting OH-04 in there is out). I had to split the Cuyahoga burbs between too Pubbie CD's; otherwise OH-16 gets too marginal. As it is, OH-16 is 50% McCain, which is tolerable, but it can't go lower. It just can't. The bonus is that it is a nice compact looking CD.

And with OH-07 shorn of its Dem precincts in and around Columbus, it can easily suck up Athens County, and has.

I also skipped my testosterone shot this time, and am trying to keep the Pubbie incumbents in familiar territory where I can (except Jordan), and respect where I can municipal and county boundaries. The one exception to this will be the Youngstown CD. It just has to be an erose monster.

So here is the work in progress. Any comments are welcome.



And here is the Cleveland area action:

[TJ in Oregon]

I have trouble believing the Republicans will draw the lines for the Youngstown district quite that erose. I've managed to get to 63.4% Obama looking pretty compact so I don't think the GOP will really go that far for a point or two. I also have trouble beliving they will draw part of Cleveland into the Toledo district to make OH-10 R+4 instead of R+3. Of course this could be the difference in an election, but I am doubting they'll do it when they can draw something like this in northeast Ohio instead and still be favored in the same districts:



The green is 50.0-48.7 Obama and the tan is 49.8-48.6 Obama (not that you can do a whole lot here anyway). The yellow is 85.0-14.2 Obama and the navy blue is 63.4-37.4 (Obama).

I also think even if Tiberi has a suburban appeal, drawing northeastern Lorain County into a Columbus seat is a community of interest nightmare. I'd prefer giving him Canton or Mansfield... or pretty much anywhere else.

[Torie]

Good points TJ. But back when muon2 told me that putting eastern Cleveland into OH-09 was in the cards. Of course, that may have been wrong, or wrong now, but one point in that range is critical, particularly for one untested, not all that great maybe, and with new territory. If it were LaTourette, no problem.  The Youngstown CD probably can be less erose, given the ceding of Columbus.

If Tiberi is not going into Lorain per my approach, then it is either Jordan or Latta.  What do you think of Latta there?

Are you sure about your numbers for OH-16 (it looks more Dem to me), and what are they for LaTourette's CD?  It looks like you cut a bit more deeply into Cleveland.

[TJ in Oregon]

I'd prefer Latta over Jordan or Tiberi, and he would be fine for the rural southern part of Lorain County or anything west of Lorain/Elyria. Avon and Avon Lake need to be with the Cleveland Republican district because those areas are an extension of the Bay/Westlake/ Rocky River suburbs and would be a terrible fit for any of them. Renacci (or whatever Republican ends up with that seat; I have some doubts it will be Renacci for very long and Cuyahoga County Republican Chair Rob Frost may primary him...but that won't change the national politics much if any) would be much better. If not, give them to Kaptur because any non-Northeast Ohio Republican is going to underperform badly.

If Dave's App is correct, then my numbers for OH-16 (I am assuming you mean the green one) are correct and they look right to me. The areas of this seat in Lorain and Summit Counties are very Republican and I've spent quite a bit of time carefully selecting the right precincts from Cleveland to give to Renacci. The cutoff is around 67 or 68% Obama. Most of the ugliness of bringing OH-9 in here just removes a bunch of 60% ish precincts and replaces them with 45% ish precincts. The difference can almost be made up just by going into Lorain and Summit.

I did the same on the east side and the chunk of Beachwood, Lyndhurst, South Euclid, and University Heights LaTourette would get is truthfully not much different than the areas of Summit, Portage, and Trumbull Counties that he’d get more of if he didn’t pick up that area. This is ~10 or so precincts that are 60% Obama instead of 55% Obama. It does split more municipal lines, but it makes the map look much cleaner. It also makes it easier to get OH-11 to 50% VAP black, and thus it can take more of the west side and less of Akron. This is a high SES area so I also expect LaTourette to do much better than McCain.

[edtorres04]

Torie,

I would try to split South East Ohio a bit more.  The PVI's there are very deceptive.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If you're trying to see what will happen with only one Democratic seat eliminated, then why are you still trying to eliminate both Sutton and Kucinich? It makes more sense to give Sutton a Democratic district based in Western Cuyahoga and Summit. Failure to do so will only weaken the freshman Renacci by forcing his district into the Cleveland suburbs.

Torie,

I would try to split South East Ohio a bit more.  The PVI's there are very deceptive.

I also agree with this. Remember that the 6th was a throwaway district for Strickland.

[TJ in Oregon]

The problem is that the Republicans really need to give the Democrats a seat in Columbus to have a safe map. If they keep Sutton or Kucinich they can't do that without eliminating two Republicans. Plus, it really doesn't help any of their incumbents to keep either Sutton or Kucinich. Clearly the west side of Cleveland isn't Renacci's idea district, but would it be better to combine him with Gibbs and make them fight it out in a primary? There just aren't enough Republican seats to go around without drawing Renacci into Kucinich's seat and preserving Kucinich doesn't help any of their other incumbents any. There's no reason at all why the Republicans should draw four Democratic seats in northern Ohio. It just doesn't help anyone.

[TJ in Oregon]

Torie,

I would try to split South East Ohio a bit more.  The PVI's there are very deceptive.

I don't think that's the OH-6 he intends to draw. I think that's the current one.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's my attempt:



OH-01 (blue) - 51.4 Obama, 47.5 McCain
OH-02 (green) - 55.4 McCain, 43.0 Obama
OH-03 (purple) - 50.6 McCain, 48.0 Obama
OH-04 (red, formerly OH-18) - 52.0 McCain, 45.7 Obama
OH-05 (yellow) - 56.1 McCain, 41.9 Obama
OH-06 (teal) - 52.3 McCain, 45.4 Obama
OH-07 (grey) - 51.7 McCain, 46.7 Obama
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.9 McCain, 36.4 Obama
OH-09 (sky blue) - 61.2 Obama, 37.1 McCain
OH-10 (magenta) - 61.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain
OH-11 (light green) - 81.8 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 50.5% black VAP
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 51.1 Obama, 47.6 McCain
OH-13 (pink, formerly OH-17) - 61.1 Obama, 37.0 McCain
OH-14 (brown) - 49.9 McCain, 48.6 Obama
OH-15 (orange) - 51.2 Obama, 47.1 McCain
OH-16 (khaki) - 51.3 McCain, 47.0 Obama

Jordan is dumped in with Boehner, Sutton is either in with Fudge or LaTourette (Copley is split between the two districts). It would probably be better for Republicans to get rid of Sutton than Kucinich, since Dennis is a gadly with no chance of ever running for statewide office. Otherwise, most Reps have to sacrifice a bit to spread out the danger.