US House Redistricting: Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

Yikes! After all that LaTourette is still only 51.5% McCain! I think this shows the Republicans ought to draw OH-10 and OH-11 and then just put OH-14 however it fits without absorbing any really Democratic areas around the edges. Just give him R+3 to R+4 and be done with it.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Yikes! After all that LaTourette is still only 51.5% McCain! I think this shows the Republicans ought to draw OH-10 and OH-11 and then just put OH-14 however it fits without absorbing any really Democratic areas around the edges. Just give him R+3 to R+4 and be done with it.

After fiddling with the lines a bit more, I've improved it by trading Kent and Ravenna to Ryan's district in exchange for some more marginal territory.



OH-14 (Bronze): 52.6% McCain
(Former) OH-17 (Purple): 62.6% Obama

[TJ in Oregon]

I tried drawing a northeast Ohio map without the Cleveland to Akron seat and just one in Cleveland itself, while making the three margin seats Republican and making it look fairly clean.



Yellow: Obama 83.5-McCain 15.7, 47.0% VAP Black, D+30
Bronze: Obama 49.5-McCain 48.9, R+3.7
Navy: Obama 65.7-McCain 32.5, D+12
Green: Obama 50.2-McCain 48.5, R+3.1
Maroon: McCain 50.1-Obama 47.9, R+5

[Torie]

What is the black VAP percentage in OH-11 TJ?  I don't think the Pubbies are willing to risk litigation by virtue of it being less than 50%. 

[TJ in Oregon]

47.0%VAP (49.6% overall if that matters any) and I'm not sure they'd do this, especially without consulting the local NAACP and Marcia Fudge. I do think Fudge would have no problems in a primary though, the white population is split up too much between east and west for it to matter.

I've mainly been operating under the assumption of a Cleveland-to-Akron OH-11, but wanted to see what it would look like if they don't draw it. Do you think a court would mandate it? It doesn't change the results much just makes it uglier. The local GOP will need to talk to Fudge and George Forbes (the local NAACP leader) first in any event. Keeping them happy is essential.

[Torie]

47.0%VAP (49.6% overall if that matters any) and I'm not sure they'd do this, especially without consulting the local NAACP and Marcia Fudge. I do think Fudge would have no problems in a primary though, the white population is split up too much between east and west for it to matter.

I've mainly been operating under the assumption of a Cleveland-to-Akron OH-11, but wanted to see what it would look like if they don't draw it. Do you think a court would mandate it? It doesn't change the results much just makes it uglier. The local GOP will need to talk to Fudge and George Forbes (the local NAACP leader) first in any event. Keeping them happy is essential.

If I had to guess, I would say that the odds are about 50-50 that a lower court might toss a map that did not hit the 50% figure. If it got to SCOTUS, and SCOTUS might well deny cert, the odds are about 1 in 3 that such a map would be tossed. The odds are better before SCOTUS that dropping below 50% might be upheld because SCOTUS is making noises that they are getting tired of the VRA and aggressive interpretations of it.

But we won't know, because the Pubbies are not going there. It is just too risky, without much political gain.

[krazen1211]

TJ, does anyone in Akron actually WANT to be in a Cleveland district?

[TJ in Oregon]

TJ, does anyone in Akron actually WANT to be in a Cleveland district?

I highly doubt it.

The reason why it would be drawn would be because the Cleveland African American community might want part of Akron to be in their district. Cleveland and Akron aren't really the same COI, but then again Akron and Youngstown aren't either. I mainly just wanted to see what it would look like without the Cleveland-to-Akron one since I've drawn like ten maps with it already.

Whether it's drawn or not, assuming the GOP doesn't tick off anyone enough to sue, really doesn't change the results much, though. Of course, if OH-11 has to be eggregiously gerrymandered to meet 50% VAP black, then I am assuming we can carve up municipalities into mincemeat in the process while I sort of tried to avoid that on the clean map. At the end of the day, it's a wash. The only reason not to make OH-10 in the R+2 to R+3 range is if R+5 isn't safe enough for the Renacci/Gibbs showdown seat or if the Ohio GOP is really deadset on putting as much of Medina County as possible in that seat.

[Torie]

You can get OH-10 up to about 2% GOP PVI, or a bit more, if you abandon the Kuch must win his primary gig, and thin out the OH-11 Akron prong, and suck up more Dem precincts in east Cleveland instead.

Well, actually, that revision gets OH-10 up to 1.1% GOP PVI, assuming that you want to respect municipal boundaries, and keep the CD looking pretty. Down and dirty and ugly might get it up to a 2% GOP PVI. And as OH-10 goes up in GOP PVI, OH-16 will go down, and down by a bit more, since the map becomes a bit less efficient, but it was at 7% GOP PVI before.

[Brittain33]

Does anyone think "Kucinich wins the primary, loses the general" is a bit too much to build into a map?

It reminds me a bit of PA-13 in 2002, and that didn't work.

[krazen1211]

Does anyone think "Kucinich wins the primary, loses the general" is a bit too much to build into a map?

It reminds me a bit of PA-13 in 2002, and that didn't work.

Yep, which is why I don't like weakening OH-14 and OH-16 those 50 basis points. That's precisely what doomed PA-08.

[TJ in Oregon]

If you're willing split municipalities more, you can split Lakewood and Garfield Heights, carefully selecting the right precincts. Maybe even split Bedford if necessary for a few thousand people only in the mid-60s% Obama for OH-10. The map makes this worse than it really is because part of the nasty 80%+ precinct you have to go through is in a park so you wouldn't actually need to add it to get to the other side. There are a couple precincts in Brook Park that worth grabbing by OH-11 too. On the east side, there is a decent chunk of ~60-65% Obama territory in South Euclid, Beachwood, University Heights, and Shaker Heights, (and maybe even the three Cleveland Heights Jewish ones since you only need to go through one or two 80%ish ones to get there) you can move to OH-14 without doing a lot of damage. There are a couple more up by the lake in Euclid that are salvageble too. Most of this even raises the black% so we can probably justify it if we "have to" get to 50%VAP. You can take the Akron tail down along the Cuyahoga Valley instead of through Twinsburg and if you split precincts actually could avoid almost everyone living there too. The only loss here is one precinct in Walton Hills. This may be nickel and diming it some, but if we want to go all the way it can be done. I posted a map of an OH-10 and OH-11 back on page 27 that was R+3.36, though it included Renacci. But since we're already combining Renacci and Gibbs it shouldn't matter too terribly much whether we include the majority of Medina County or not. Every precinct that seat loses can be another one in Wayne or Ashland Counties, hurting the Columbus chop seats or possibly Latta depending on what you remove from Lorain.

[Torie]

Well here is a compromise map that has OH-10 at GOP PVI +0.5%.  It respects municipal boundaries. Screwing around with the OH-14 and OH-11 borderland, while respecting municipal boundaries, would hurt OH-14, which can't afford to be hurt. If there is a way to do better, while respecting the boundaries, then great. But I don't think the map makers are going to make a hash of the boundaries, to pick up a point or less.  It didn't happen last time, and won't happen this time.

[nclib]

What would a Kuch wins the primary and general CD look like? Any chance the GOP draws that as a vote sink?

[krazen1211]

What would a Kuch wins the primary and general CD look like? Any chance the GOP draws that as a vote sink?

That would be the black district. If Kucinich runs away from Marcia Fudge that's his problem.

[nclib]

What would a Kuch wins the primary and general CD look like? Any chance the GOP draws that as a vote sink?

That would be the black district. If Kucinich runs away from Marcia Fudge that's his problem.

I meant aside from that, obviously, since Kuch wouldn't beat her.

[Torie]

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Only problem with that map (assuming that the rumors I've heard are accurate) is that I had heard that Ohio Republicans were planning to keep the three way split, and that in the unlikely event that they didn't, they would create a new Democratic seat in Columbus (this would only be if they were worried about a lawsuit about the minority-majority district, but it sounded like they aren't too worried about this).  It didn't sound like they were really considering a four-way split at the moment.  Mind you these are rumors (even if the source is pretty credible) and it seems like there is major central Ohio dummymander potential (not that I'm complaining ), but bigger dummymanders have certainly been enacted...

[Torie]

Lots of rumors out there, but a three way split means that all three CD's will have little or no GOP PVI, or at least one of them will be a lean Dem CD.  I mean, the map from 10 years ago was a 2.5 CD split. OH-07 sucks up about 20-25 heavily Dem precincts in the existing chop.

However, by creating a swing CD in the Cleveland area, you shove two other CD's into safe GOP territory, as they both pick up a couple of GOP PVI points- OH-06 and OH-16.  Ceding Columbus to the Dems just makes the safe GOP CD's around it even safer. It doesn't increase your GOP congressperson body count expectations. So the latest rumor about creating a Kuch friendly CD, that he may have trouble holding in the General, has some psephological logic to it.

I should note, that the current incumbent in the current OH-18, Gibbs, is thrown into the trash in this map.  Holmes county was needed to prop up OH-12. I tried to create a fair fight between him and Renasci (sp) in OH-16, or semi fair fight, but it was too "expensive" to leave Holmes in OH-16, so it was detached.  So Gibbs can run against Tiberi in his east side of Columbus and burbs based CD, or retire, or move to the Cleveland burbs to run against Kuch.  In a word, he's done in this map. He's the odd man out. It was just the way the map drew itself, to get the PVI's where they needed to be.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lots of rumors out there, but a three way split means that all three CD's will have little or no GOP PVI, or at least one of them will be a lean Dem CD.  I mean, the map from 10 years ago was a 2.5 CD split. OH-07 sucks up about 20-25 heavily Dem precincts in the existing chop.

However, by creating a swing CD in the Cleveland area, you shove two other CD's into safe GOP territory, as they both pick up a couple of GOP PVI points- OH-06 and OH-16.  Ceding Columbus to the Dems just makes the safe GOP CD's around it even safer. It doesn't increase your GOP congressperson body count expectations. So the latest rumor about creating a Kuch friendly CD, that he may have trouble holding in the General, has some psephological logic to it.

I should note, that the current incumbent in the current OH-18, Gibbs, is thrown into the trash in this map.  Holmes county was needed to prop up OH-12. I tried to create a fair fight between him and Renasci (sp) in OH-16, or semi fair fight, but it was too "expensive" to leave Holmes in OH-16, so it was detached.  So Gibbs can run against Tiberi in his east side of Columbus and burbs based CD, or retire, or move to the Cleveland burbs to run against Kuch.  In a word, he's done in this map. He's the odd man out. It was just the way the map drew itself, to get the PVI's where they needed to be.

I suppose it is possible that Austria or Tiberi agreed to take a less friendly seat in a misguided effort to "take one for the team," or that the Republicans think Tiberi and Stivers are strong enough to get entrenched and hold the seats until the end of the decade.

[Linus Van Pelt]

If the GOP is in the mood to be fiddling around with D primaries, it's perhaps worth noting that Ryan v. Sutton has "EMILY'S LIST blasts $$$ that could go to swing districts at a safe district primary" written all over it.

[TJ in Oregon]

If the GOP is in the mood to be fiddling around with D primaries, it's perhaps worth noting that Ryan v. Sutton has "EMILY'S LIST blasts $$$ that could go to swing districts at a safe district primary" written all over it.

I'd love to watch that! Ryan ought to win because most of the districts drawn have more of Warren/Youngstown than Akron and Sutton is pretty much a faceless Generic Democrat. It's kind of amusing they'd bother going after Ryan since he's hardly a vocal pro-lifer. Heck if they want to spend money over getting a true pro-choice Dem rather than a wishy-washy one, I'd much rather they spend it there than propping up, say Dennis Kucinich.

[Padfoot]

The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that there may be an Austria v Turner GOP primary in 2012.  That leads me to believe they are looking to eliminate OH-7.  Personally I'd rather see Schmidt forced into a primary but this raises my hopes slightly that there will only be 2 Franklin County districts at the most.  I'm still not too optimistic though.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/08/23/austria-turner-might-be-gop-primary-rivals.html

[Torie]

I don't see how that would work at all. What a curve ball!  Be patient, as Sam Spade would say. 

[dpmapper]

Wild guess: this is being used to scare Austria into accepting more of Columbus than he currently has.