US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Padfoot]

I don't see how that would work at all. What a curve ball!  Be patient, as Sam Spade would say. 

I'm not sure what the GOP is thinking here either.  I thought for sure they'd either force a couple of the freshmen into a primary or go after Jordan or Schmidt.  Eliminating 7 instead of 6 or 18 seems like a much riskier move. 

The only thing I can guess is that they are going to maintain the 3 way Columbus split but swing Stivers to the South and give Union County plus a portion of Franklin County to Jordan.  That might put Jordan in danger of facing a moderate Republican challenger from Columbus.

[Brittain33]

Didn't Krayzen argue that Republicans electing Austria in OH-7 is a sign of how prominent diversity is among the national party and its voters? This would be quite a setback.

[krazen1211]

Didn't Krayzen argue that Republicans electing Austria in OH-7 is a sign of how prominent diversity is among the national party and its voters? This would be quite a setback.

That's only if he loses or doesn't run for senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that there may be an Austria v Turner GOP primary in 2012.  That leads me to believe they are looking to eliminate OH-7.  Personally I'd rather see Schmidt forced into a primary but this raises my hopes slightly that there will only be 2 Franklin County districts at the most.  I'm still not too optimistic though.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/08/23/austria-turner-might-be-gop-primary-rivals.html

 

That would be a win-win primary (for Democrats, that is ) since either way a problematic Republican would be eliminated (Austria b/c he's a reliable, if pro-leadership, right-wing vote and Turner who is so popular in Dayton that he has made his district "off limits" as a potential pickup).  Not to mention the high dummymander potential...

Could someone with a little more spare time than I could make a map of what this, plus the "Kucinich wins the primary, but loses the general" seat, plus Sutton's seat being eliminated might look like? 

[Brittain33]

Didn't Krayzen argue that Republicans electing Austria in OH-7 is a sign of how prominent diversity is among the national party and its voters? This would be quite a setback.

That's only if he loses or doesn't run for senate.

It's a very high stakes race. The reputations of tens of millions of voters across the country are riding on it.

[Torie]

As we all know, a 3 way split moves the two Columbus seats to the swing category.  And all those black voters are between the white parts of Columbus and the southern tier of counties south of Franklin, that make up OH-07.  But I suppose Austria's base of Greene County can be moved into OH-03, and OH-04 still take some of the black precincts slicing down to its east, and OH-15 pick up some of Warren and Clinton counties from which it is currently shut out now. And I won't have the time to do the map for some while now. Oh well.

But I see there is still the issue of how to insert OH-04 into Columbus without blocking OH-15 getting to the south.

[Brittain33]

This also appears to be about shoring up Johnson, whose district is a swing district with a misleadingly low D PVI because Obama tanked so badly in Appalachia. If you want to keep Gibbs and Johnson around and eliminate Dems in the northeast without making OH-6 fall to the Dems, Johnson has to take some Republican territory from Gibbs, and Gibbs has to take from Austria.

[Torie]

This also appears to be about shoring up Johnson, whose district is a swing district with a misleadingly low D PVI because Obama tanked so badly in Appalachia. If you want to keep Gibbs and Johnson around and eliminate Dems in the northeast without making OH-6 fall to the Dems, Johnson has to take some Republican territory from Gibbs, and Gibbs has to take from Austria.

I got Johnson up to a 6.8% GOP PVI with a reasonable looking CD, and the geography does not allow it to go any higher really, if OH-16 is going to take all of Stark ex Canton because OH-10 is going to take the GOP somewhat friendly Cleveland southern and western burbs. But Gibbs can come back to life with a safe GOP seat, just like Austria's was (his was 7.5% GOP PVI per my map). The OH-07 chop could however potentially make OH-04, and OH-12 a bit less erose looking however, and OH-12 and OH-05 more suburban rather than taking chunks of territory that is more rural to the north.  Gibbs could take that territory instead.

[krazen1211]

It's a very high stakes race. The reputations of tens of millions of voters across the country are riding on it.

I think you're out of date, sir. There will still be numerous minorities such as Mr. Scott and Mr. Labrador who are elected by white conservatives.

This is not 2008.

[muon2]

Here's my good government alternative. It's based on the Ohio Redistricting Competition and has exact equality at the block level. The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP. The districts are highly compact with few splits.

The interesting feature is the competitive nature of the districts. Obama carried 11 of 16, but 13 of 16 went R in an average of 2010 races. One of the McCain districts (6) was only 49.7% R, so it could easily elect a D. Two of the 2010 D districts (13, 16) were carried by Obama only 4.6% and 2.7% ahead of his national average, so they could go R with the right candidate.

Effectively 11 of the 16 districts could flip on any given election with a maximum of 15 seats for the Rs and 12 for the Ds. More details can be found here.

[minionofmidas]

Why is the 3rd drawn as it is?

[muon2]

Why is the 3rd drawn as it is?

To keep it from being too R, it needs to add Springfield and lose a heavy R suburb like Beavercreek. One could probably have gone up to Kettering on the Montgomery side as well.

[TJ in Oregon]

The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP.

That changes the game a whole lot in Northeast Ohio. We can have a lean R OH-10 without nasty looking borders now.

[Torie]

The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP.

That changes the game a whole lot in Northeast Ohio. We can have a lean R OH-10 without nasty looking borders now.

It also gives the Pubbies more flexibility in shoving the Pubbie PVI's around between CD's.  And might explain why the focus on Austria, since that frees up Pubbies within reach of the Cleveland/Akron area.  I still don't understand how the Columbus chop will work however from the south, given the location of the blacks in Columbus on its south side. That makes a quad chop tough.

[krazen1211]

Here's my good government alternative. It's based on the Ohio Redistricting Competition and has exact equality at the block level. The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP. The districts are highly compact with few splits.

Is this confirmed?

[TJ in Oregon]

This map combines Renacci and Gibbs in a primary, eliminates Sutton, and makes Kucinich no longer favored to win his seat:


Cleveland:


OH-1: Dark Green- Chabot (R-Cincinnati) R+5.62
OH-2: Gold- Schmidt (R-Loveland) R+7.21
OH-3: Slate Green- Turner (R-Dayton) R+5.82
OH-4: Purple- Jordan (R-Urbana) R+7.13
OH-5: Red- Latta (R-Bowling Green) R+6.52
OH-6: Teal- Johnson (R-Marietta) R+6.95
OH-7: Gray- Austria (R-Beavercreek) R+6.42
OH-8: Light Blue- Boehner (R-West Chester) R+10.36
OH-9: Cyan- Kaptur (D-Toledo) D+10.58
OH-10: Lime Green- Kucinich (D-Cleveland), Sutton (D-Copley), Open (R) R+3.10
OH-11: Yellow- Fudge (D-Warrensville Hts.) D+29.97 46.98% Black VAP
OH-12: Maroon- Tiberi (R-Galena) R+6.03
OH-13: Salmon- Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and Gibbs (R-Lakeville) R+5.08
OH-14: Tan- LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp.) R+3.65
OH-15: Orange- Stivers (R-Columbus) R+6.45
OH-16: Navy Blue- Ryan (D-Niles) D+12.66

[muon2]

Here's my good government alternative. It's based on the Ohio Redistricting Competition and has exact equality at the block level. The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP. The districts are highly compact with few splits.

Is this confirmed?

I don't know if this will be the legal standard, but it is now the standard for the competition, which is intended to produce maps for consideration by the legislature. When it became clear that a 50% district was not possible without going into Akron, the competition revised the rules to allow 48% BVAP districts. The footnote indicates that this is considered to be sufficient to elect a black candidate of choice in Cuyahoga county at the federal level. I know that NAACP, who is a partner with the competition, was consulted and they agreed to the rule change.

[Torie]

Oh, it is a game. What was the NAACP signing off at 48% about? I saw an article about you Muon2 on this contest stuff.  Are you going to post it? You also bootstrapped off it I see. For some reason, you don't like the new Illinois lines much.

[Padfoot]

Oh, it is a game. What was the NAACP signing off at 48% about? I saw an article about you Muon2 on this contest stuff.  Are you going to post it? You also bootstrapped off it I see. For some reason, you don't like the new Illinois lines much.

There were several articles about muon's win in the Columbus Dispatch.  I really liked his plans for the Ohio legislature. 

I'm not sure I like his congressional plan above as well though.  The competition software rates 4 of his districts with a GOP index of over 61% while there is only one district with a Democratic index that is over 54%.  That's great for competitiveness but I feel like the Democrats are sacrificing more for that cause than Republicans under that particular map.  I think you need to boost the Dem rating of at least one more seat to make it fair.

[muon2]

Oh, it is a game. What was the NAACP signing off at 48% about? I saw an article about you Muon2 on this contest stuff.  Are you going to post it? You also bootstrapped off it I see. For some reason, you don't like the new Illinois lines much.

There were several articles about muon's win in the Columbus Dispatch.  I really liked his plans for the Ohio legislature. 

I'm not sure I like his congressional plan above as well though.  The competition software rates 4 of his districts with a GOP index of over 61% while there is only one district with a Democratic index that is over 54%.  That's great for competitiveness but I feel like the Democrats are sacrificing more for that cause than Republicans under that particular map.  I think you need to boost the Dem rating of at least one more seat to make it fair.

The competition website has been including links to articles about my plans. I hadn't duplicated those links here.

The problem with the congressional map from the Dems' perspective is that even a 48% BVAP district results in an 80%+ D district.  Since the state has a slight R lean to begin with, each additional hard D over 58% would knock out two or more lean D districts.

The map I posted has 7 lean D seats to create a 7R, 8D, 1E map adding leaners to the hard districts. A plan with two hard D districts, and no additional hard R districts would end up with something like a 10 R,  6D map or even an 11 R, 5 D split. That would be less fair compared to the statewide results, though it might look good to a Dem after the 2010 results alone.

[Torie]

Round and round we go, and where we stop, nobody knows. So we map on the rumors.

It is kind of a "tight fit" into Columbus this time from the north, with the two pseudopods thrusting to the south.  Is it really an improvement from the previous map, that left OH-07 alone, rather than moving it north of Columbus from the south?  No. Not that I can see; well it does make some of the CD's look a bit squarer, and OH-15 looks nice in Franklin County. Whatever.  

[muon2]

In an interesting development, I was informed Fri that the OH House committee on State Government and Elections would hold a hearing on Sep 6, to receive testimony on congressional redistricting. The contest sponsored by the Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting isn't over until 9/11, but they want to get something on record for this week's hearing. So, they will show the highest scoring map to date which is based on minimizing county splits and was linked here.

This "fair min splits" plan scores higher than my exact population plan, because it doesn't have to split counties to get exact equality. Like the exact plan it is based on a 4 SR / 3 LR / 1 TU / 7 LD / 1 SD mix, with 11 competitive districts out of 16. The only city split within a county is Columbus. Cleveland, Cincinnati, Akron, and Dayton are kept intact. Here's the rendering in DRA.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Word from Marcy Kaptur's office:

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[minionofmidas]

So no attack on Sutton?

[krazen1211]

So no attack on Sutton?

That strategy inevitably must also take Lorain out of Sutton's district.