US House Redistricting: Ohio
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  US House Redistricting: Ohio
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #725 on: November 04, 2011, 01:13:02 PM »

They really thought that carve-up of Lorain would fly as a compromise?

I don't think Lorain is much of an issue for either side. No incumbent has a significant base there, so it's just a question of dividing the heavily Dem north of the county.

The issue is about how many districts will give the Dems a real chance, and how well urban minorities are kept intact.
It's such an easy argument to use, though. Such a ridic chop.
Of course, something ridic in the northeast is inevitable if it's not to lose 1 instead of 1/2 of a Democratic seat...
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dpmapper
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« Reply #726 on: November 04, 2011, 04:08:55 PM »

See this map:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124180.msg3023697#msg3023697

Taking Twinsburg and the areas west of there away from OH-14, and replacing them with some other Summit/Portage communities is more or less a wash.  This was mapped assuming that there was the 3-way split of Toledo but I'm sure you could get it to work if you bring OH-04 into Lorain instead. 
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jimrtex
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« Reply #727 on: November 04, 2011, 06:24:38 PM »

See this map:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124180.msg3023697#msg3023697

Taking Twinsburg and the areas west of there away from OH-14, and replacing them with some other Summit/Portage communities is more or less a wash.  This was mapped assuming that there was the 3-way split of Toledo but I'm sure you could get it to work if you bring OH-04 into Lorain instead. 
I guess I don't understand what the advantage of chopping up all of the townships in Portage so to provide a minimal path between Youngstown and Akron and then hook back into Kent and Ravenna.

If you can use the square townships, the map looks better, and it one less item for Justice Kennedy to focus on.

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muon2
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« Reply #728 on: November 04, 2011, 06:26:39 PM »

See this map:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124180.msg3023697#msg3023697

Taking Twinsburg and the areas west of there away from OH-14, and replacing them with some other Summit/Portage communities is more or less a wash.  This was mapped assuming that there was the 3-way split of Toledo but I'm sure you could get it to work if you bring OH-04 into Lorain instead. 

I wasn't questioning that your map works. It's just that the GOP map increases the McCain margin to about 2,000 votes or about 0.5%. In a swing district like OH-14 those extra votes matter.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #729 on: November 05, 2011, 10:15:52 AM »

I was under the impression that the GOP map has OH-14 as an Obama district.  Mine has it as a McCain district.  But maybe my recollection is off. 
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Miles
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« Reply #730 on: December 07, 2011, 04:42:48 PM »

Sutton is running against Renacci.

If I recall, isn't OH-16 like 51% McCain?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #731 on: December 07, 2011, 04:55:25 PM »

So does the map stand or what?
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Padfoot
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« Reply #732 on: December 07, 2011, 09:35:36 PM »


It's still undecided.  Democrats are still actively gathering signatures for a voter referendum on the map.  If they are successful in placing it on the 2012 ballot then there will likely be a court drawn map for the 2012 election.
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Torie
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« Reply #733 on: December 07, 2011, 10:32:46 PM »


It's still undecided.  Democrats are still actively gathering signatures for a voter referendum on the map.  If they are successful in placing it on the 2012 ballot then there will likely be a court drawn map for the 2012 election.

The parties are still negotiating.  There is a lot of risk attending both sides, if they can't cut a deal.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #734 on: December 07, 2011, 10:46:06 PM »


It's still undecided.  Democrats are still actively gathering signatures for a voter referendum on the map.  If they are successful in placing it on the 2012 ballot then there will likely be a court drawn map for the 2012 election.

The parties are still negotiating.  There is a lot of risk attending both sides, if they can't cut a deal.

What's the risk for the Dems?
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Torie
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« Reply #735 on: December 07, 2011, 11:07:23 PM »


It's still undecided.  Democrats are still actively gathering signatures for a voter referendum on the map.  If they are successful in placing it on the 2012 ballot then there will likely be a court drawn map for the 2012 election.

The parties are still negotiating.  There is a lot of risk attending both sides, if they can't cut a deal.

What's the risk for the Dems?

The Court adopts the Pubbie plan as an interim map (reasonably likely, but uncertain), and the referendum then passes (assuming it does), and the Pubs draw the same map again, or worse - as they are threatening. This is one of those classic tractor games (you remember that movie don't you Brittain33?).  
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jimrtex
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« Reply #736 on: December 08, 2011, 01:46:26 AM »


It's still undecided.  Democrats are still actively gathering signatures for a voter referendum on the map.  If they are successful in placing it on the 2012 ballot then there will likely be a court drawn map for the 2012 election.

The parties are still negotiating.  There is a lot of risk attending both sides, if they can't cut a deal.

What's the risk for the Dems?

The Court adopts the Pubbie plan as an interim map (reasonably likely, but uncertain), and the referendum then passes (assuming it does), and the Pubs draw the same map again, or worse - as they are threatening. This is one of those classic tractor games (you remember that movie don't you Brittain33?).  

If its good enough for Rose Bird and Jerry Brown it ought to be good enough for Ohio.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #737 on: December 08, 2011, 07:49:35 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2011, 08:06:13 AM by brittain33 »

The Court adopts the Pubbie plan as an interim map (reasonably likely, but uncertain), and the referendum then passes (assuming it does), and the Pubs draw the same map again, or worse - as they are threatening. This is one of those classic tractor games (you remember that movie don't you Brittain33?).  

I'm still not seeing the downside for the Dems vs the rather substantial downside for the Republicans. For one, the map can not possibly get any worse for the Dems, so that's an empty threat. (Even if it could get marginally worse in a few places, that is of no practical significance when you are down to 4 Dems, and most likely leads to a dummymander.) For another, there will almost certainly be fewer Republicans in the legislature after the 2012 election, although they will still have a majority, which will limit their maneuver room. For another another, drawing the same map again after losing a referendum would invite another referendum which they know they will lose, and the Pubbies are counting on low Dem turnout in 2014.

In this situation, the Republicans truly are against the wall. Their best hope is that the current map stands but the Dems' best strategy, assuming their whole caucus stays united, is to throw it to the courts given that the Republicans don't want to seriously negotiate and have the krazen-style strategy of hoping to pick off a few reps with bogus concessions that don't help Dems.

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Torie
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« Reply #738 on: December 08, 2011, 10:20:30 AM »

The Court adopts the Pubbie plan as an interim map (reasonably likely, but uncertain), and the referendum then passes (assuming it does), and the Pubs draw the same map again, or worse - as they are threatening. This is one of those classic tractor games (you remember that movie don't you Brittain33?).  

I'm still not seeing the downside for the Dems vs the rather substantial downside for the Republicans. For one, the map can not possibly get any worse for the Dems, so that's an empty threat. (Even if it could get marginally worse in a few places, that is of no practical significance when you are down to 4 Dems, and most likely leads to a dummymander.) For another, there will almost certainly be fewer Republicans in the legislature after the 2012 election, although they will still have a majority, which will limit their maneuver room. For another another, drawing the same map again after losing a referendum would invite another referendum which they know they will lose, and the Pubbies are counting on low Dem turnout in 2014.

In this situation, the Republicans truly are against the wall. Their best hope is that the current map stands but the Dems' best strategy, assuming their whole caucus stays united, is to throw it to the courts given that the Republicans don't want to seriously negotiate and have the krazen-style strategy of hoping to pick off a few reps with bogus concessions that don't help Dems.



Well, the Dems don't appear to agree with you, unless things have changed. They are still talking, and talking seriously. Just how much the Pubs are willing to give remains to be seen.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #739 on: December 08, 2011, 10:32:14 AM »

Yes, negotiations are also a good option for the Dems if the Republicans are willing to make serious concessions. If not, and it's the same rinky-dink stuff the Republicans have been pulling the whole time about tinkering with lines in Columbus and making an R district slightly less R, it goes to the courts.

It doesn't cost the Dems in the legislature anything to talk while their organizers are out there gathering signatures.

I just don't buy that the Pubbies have any leverage here at all. All they have is hope that either the courts or the signers don't come through for the Dems.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #740 on: December 08, 2011, 10:38:08 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2011, 10:39:47 AM by TJ in Cleve »

What I would like the Ohio Republican Party to do at this point is draw Renacci and Gibbs into a district and keep Kaptur and Kucinich in separate districts, while cleaning up all of the uneccessary county splits everywhere. It would result in an 11-4-1 map with the 11 seats being slightly safer than before. Maybe we could get a few Democrats to agree to that?

Oh, and clean up Stivers' seat as well so it doesn't look like a pair of scissors.
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Torie
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« Reply #741 on: December 08, 2011, 11:15:17 AM »

Yes, negotiations are also a good option for the Dems if the Republicans are willing to make serious concessions. If not, and it's the same rinky-dink stuff the Republicans have been pulling the whole time about tinkering with lines in Columbus and making an R district slightly less R, it goes to the courts.

It doesn't cost the Dems in the legislature anything to talk while their organizers are out there gathering signatures.

I just don't buy that the Pubbies have any leverage here at all. All they have is hope that either the courts or the signers don't come through for the Dems.

In other news, we all suck when it comes to predicting what will happen in Ohio anyway Brittain33. Tongue  I think the odds are quite good that the courts will use the Pub map as the interim map pending the referendum. That would make the Dems really unhappy.  We shall see what happens.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #742 on: December 08, 2011, 02:08:29 PM »

Yes, negotiations are also a good option for the Dems if the Republicans are willing to make serious concessions. If not, and it's the same rinky-dink stuff the Republicans have been pulling the whole time about tinkering with lines in Columbus and making an R district slightly less R, it goes to the courts.

It doesn't cost the Dems in the legislature anything to talk while their organizers are out there gathering signatures.

I just don't buy that the Pubbies have any leverage here at all. All they have is hope that either the courts or the signers don't come through for the Dems.

In other news, we all suck when it comes to predicting what will happen in Ohio anyway Brittain33. Tongue  I think the odds are quite good that the courts will use the Pub map as the interim map pending the referendum. That would make the Dems really unhappy.  We shall see what happens.

I highly doubt the courts would use the Republican map as the interim map, given that it wouldn't be allowed to go into place until after the referendum (like with SB5).  Also, the Republicans have literally no leverage here, the Dems are only talking so that they can claim that they tried to negotiate with the Republicans.  I doubt anyone on either side seriously expects anything to come of the aforementioned talks.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #743 on: December 08, 2011, 03:08:17 PM »

The Court adopts the Pubbie plan as an interim map (reasonably likely, but uncertain), and the referendum then passes (assuming it does), and the Pubs draw the same map again, or worse - as they are threatening. This is one of those classic tractor games (you remember that movie don't you Brittain33?).  

I'm still not seeing the downside for the Dems vs the rather substantial downside for the Republicans. For one, the map can not possibly get any worse for the Dems, so that's an empty threat. (Even if it could get marginally worse in a few places, that is of no practical significance when you are down to 4 Dems, and most likely leads to a dummymander.) For another, there will almost certainly be fewer Republicans in the legislature after the 2012 election, although they will still have a majority, which will limit their maneuver room. For another another, drawing the same map again after losing a referendum would invite another referendum which they know they will lose, and the Pubbies are counting on low Dem turnout in 2014.
A law passed by a 2/3 majority is not subject to a referendum.

Back in 1981 there were referendum petitions filed against both the legislative and congressional maps in California.  The California Supreme Court ruled that the congressional map passed by the legislature should be used, since it was the only map with the correct number of representatives (this was a 7-0 vote and followed the precedent of 1971 when then Governor Reagan vetoed the maps).  The Supreme Court on a 4-3 decision written by Chief Justice Bird ruled that the the legislative maps passed by the legislature should also be used, since these were said to have more equal population.  This overturned the precedent from 1971 where the existing boundaries were used after a veto.  Since the Republicans were petitioning for the referendum, and Bird's given name was Liberal Rose, I suspect the 4-3 decisions was partisan aligned.

The voters overturned the maps.  The legislature elected on the gerrymandered maps then passed the same maps with an urgency clause (2/3 vote) which was signed by Jerry Brown the Younger.

If the Ohio Supreme Court has a Republican majority, they can rule that the 16-district plan should be used.  Even if the voters turn down the map, the legislature elected in 2012 can pass the map with an emergency clause.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #744 on: December 08, 2011, 03:21:46 PM »

The Ohio Supreme Court has 6 Republicans and one Democrat (who was appointed by Ted Strickland to fill a vacancy). A Democrat has not been elected since 2000.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #745 on: December 08, 2011, 05:00:05 PM »

The Court adopts the Pubbie plan as an interim map (reasonably likely, but uncertain), and the referendum then passes (assuming it does), and the Pubs draw the same map again, or worse - as they are threatening. This is one of those classic tractor games (you remember that movie don't you Brittain33?).  

I'm still not seeing the downside for the Dems vs the rather substantial downside for the Republicans. For one, the map can not possibly get any worse for the Dems, so that's an empty threat. (Even if it could get marginally worse in a few places, that is of no practical significance when you are down to 4 Dems, and most likely leads to a dummymander.) For another, there will almost certainly be fewer Republicans in the legislature after the 2012 election, although they will still have a majority, which will limit their maneuver room. For another another, drawing the same map again after losing a referendum would invite another referendum which they know they will lose, and the Pubbies are counting on low Dem turnout in 2014.
A law passed by a 2/3 majority is not subject to a referendum.

Back in 1981 there were referendum petitions filed against both the legislative and congressional maps in California.  The California Supreme Court ruled that the congressional map passed by the legislature should be used, since it was the only map with the correct number of representatives (this was a 7-0 vote and followed the precedent of 1971 when then Governor Reagan vetoed the maps).  The Supreme Court on a 4-3 decision written by Chief Justice Bird ruled that the the legislative maps passed by the legislature should also be used, since these were said to have more equal population.  This overturned the precedent from 1971 where the existing boundaries were used after a veto.  Since the Republicans were petitioning for the referendum, and Bird's given name was Liberal Rose, I suspect the 4-3 decisions was partisan aligned.

The voters overturned the maps.  The legislature elected on the gerrymandered maps then passed the same maps with an urgency clause (2/3 vote) which was signed by Jerry Brown the Younger.

If the Ohio Supreme Court has a Republican majority, they can rule that the 16-district plan should be used.  Even if the voters turn down the map, the legislature elected in 2012 can pass the map with an emergency clause.

If and only if the Republicans have 2/3rds of the seats in both chambers, right?  If they wanted to play super hardball, Democrats could just keep iterating the referendums until they get a Democratic governor or take back a statehouse.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #746 on: December 08, 2011, 05:34:48 PM »

They have to get the signatures. If they don't I believe the original map stands?

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/12/democrat-led_petition_drive_on.html

While the original Democratic plan was to hire a professional signature collection firm, Ohio Democratic Party officials have gone the all-volunteer route after funding for the effort has not materialized.
Ian James, CEO of Professional Petition Management, said his company was contracted in mid-October to do the petition work for Ohioans for Fair Districts. That's the official name for a group of Democratic officials working to overturn a congressional map passed this fall primarily by Republicans lawmakers. Democrats are upset because the newly-drawn congressional map has 12 solidly Republican districts and only four Democratic ones.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #747 on: December 08, 2011, 05:44:36 PM »

a professional signature collection firm

wtf
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jimrtex
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« Reply #748 on: December 08, 2011, 07:17:24 PM »

I highly doubt the courts would use the Republican map as the interim map, given that it wouldn't be allowed to go into place until after the referendum (like with SB5).  Also, the Republicans have literally no leverage here, the Dems are only talking so that they can claim that they tried to negotiate with the Republicans.  I doubt anyone on either side seriously expects anything to come of the aforementioned talks.
Ohio has to use 16 districts.  There is only one law that has 16 districts that was passed by the legislature and signed by the governor.  The legislature has exclusive jurisdiction to draw a map (subject to Congressional override).

If the referendum petition succeeds then the law providing 16 districts is suspended.  At that time a state court has to step in to ensure that Ohio has an election.  Those signing the petition have not said what lines they would like.  They have just said they don't like the law that the legislature passed.

If a court were to ignore what the legislature drew, and used what the "leaders" of the referendum said they wanted, the court might be deferring to what a small disgruntled population wanted, rather than the overwhelming majority of the legislators passed.

See:

Assembly v. Deukmejian, 30 Cal. 3d 638
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jimrtex
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« Reply #749 on: December 08, 2011, 08:04:02 PM »


A referendum petition needs signatures from 6% of voters.  In reality, it may need 50% extra signatures to account for duplicates and invalid signatures.  It is around freezing in Ohio.  Few people are out during the day, they are at work.  If go stand in front of a grocery store, they have to take their gloves off, or set down their groceries.  When a person is going from the warmth of their car to the warmth of the store as quickly as possible, it is not an ideal time to convince someone to stop and listen to an explanation and then sign the petition.

You might be able to get 60 signatures from your 1000 nearest neighbors.  Going door to door, perhaps in a few nights work.  Many won't be home.  Many won't answer the door.  Many will want to argue/debate with you.   Many will claim that they already signed.  Many won't remember having signed, and will signed again.  Some will ask you in for a cup of tea, and then being polite you will have to coo with the children, play with the dog, and discuss life in general.

But there might not be a signature gatherer in the next neighborhood over.  And in some areas it might be hard sell.  "Look what they did, put Ashtabula in with Geauga"

Paid vs. Volunteer Petitioners
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