US House Redistricting: Ohio

[jimrtex]

What I don't understand is, given that the mappers are willing to split Rocky River and Parma, why not split Broadview Heights and Independence so that Fudge's district takes in fewer white (and GOP) voters en route to Akron?  Put Seven Hills and most of Broadview Heights into OH-16.  Also, dig Richfield Village (as opposed to Richfield Township) out of Fudge and into OH-14.  Might not be enough to allow Canton to be placed in the Youngstown district, but at least you can put some more light blue Akron outskirts into it. 

It may be easier to defend against a VRA challenge this way.   "we followed traditional districting criteria, including not excessive splitting of townships."  You get too cute, and you are selecting voters on the basis of race.  

[Torie]

What if you don't remove Parma, but instead take more blueish towns near Akron?  (Or you could remove Parma Heights instead.  I recall that that's bluer than southern Parma.)  

Nah, Parma Heights is a tad more Pub. Sure you could go to Akron, but the pickings around there outside the zone that is already "Dem sunk" of highly Dem precincts are even thinner on the ground. Close to non existent actually. No, the big move would be for OH-13 to go to Canton, and this small change isn't going to get it there. You need to do a map like the one I first drew to do that ... nice thin long tails to the magic kingdoms of real Dem nodes. .

Here is the city of Parma Heights action for you. As you can see, this beer is so watered down, it hardly even gives you a buzz as it were.



The real change for those 40 Pub basis points, is that it would hurt Kuch, and bad, in his primary against Kaptur. That may have been a little thought in the back of the Pub drawers' minds, but I think they really didn't want to have to defend any more splits than they absolutely needed to do. Pick your shots baby.

Oh, one other  thought. The GOP ceding of Columbus, meant that there were plenty of available Pubs to do a deep Toledo chop, a most effective way of sending the excess Pubs east. Thus the GOP could be rather serene about the Cleveland and NE part of Ohio in general. All the Dem nodes that needed to be neutralized (other than Canton) could, without micro splits. And OH-07, rather than having its hyper Pub areas employed for an attack on Columbus, instead could be used to reasonably contain Canton.  So ceding Columbus made it much easier to draw the map. The Pubs just went nutter over OH-10 for some reason, without really needing to. And the tri-chop of Toledo was just dumb - totally unnecessary. The "genius" who came up with that should be fired.

The folks who ran the OH competition did some FOIA requests. The report provides some interesting background on the mapping decisions.

The money trail in particular is fascinating ... and disturbing - drawing lines for dollars, just like in PA where Wyoming County was appended to PA-11 for dollars. Pity that SCOTUS declared the Torie plan to cut the juice out of this sort of thing violative of the 1st Amendment. We're screwed.

[jimrtex]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

The ostensible reason for splitting Montgomery and Greene is to provide multiple representatives for Wright-Patman AFB.  That was the reason that Montgomery and Greene were originally kept separate (besides where the representative lived), and then Boehner could cut in from the north a bit.

Wright-Patman is NE of Dayton straddling the county line.

[Torie]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

Ah, the spirit of now closed Antioch College lives on!  Yes, that is another option, that probably adds another 20 basis points maybe (it is just a couple of hyper Dem precincts excised), but that would not be part of OH-08's existing territory, and it would be odd to chop into the tail of OH-08 jutting east. Actually, on second look,  it might be 40 basis points. The NW corner of Greene is a Dem nest. Interesting. Maybe that was not done, to avoid just not screwing Austria, but making him feel such pain that he just unleashes a primal scream - and lashes out. In lieu of that, Austria gets his whole county, and Turner gets his own county, so fair fight, right - not.

Wherever the cut, I think if anyone thought of this option (OH-10 taking all of Clinton County), it was dumped because per the article just put up, the issue of Stivers' PVI was already a topic of controversy, so finding ways to cut it further to hand something to Turner and OH-10 was just not on the table. Just a guess.

[Torie]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

The ostensible reason for splitting Montgomery and Greene is to provide multiple representatives for Wright-Patman AFB.  That was the reason that Montgomery and Greene were originally kept separate (besides where the representative lived), and then Boehner could cut in from the north a bit.

Wright-Patman is NE of Dayton straddling the county line.

What is on the table per TJ's comment about Yellow Springs, is PA-08 just taking a little bite of out Greene County in lieu of Montgomery. Appending Greene County to Montgomery in general became a done deal long ago.

[minionofmidas]

Why not just do it in the first place?

Because they were trying specifically to eliminate Kaptur with the first map. Now they're more like washing their hands on Kaptur vs Kucinich.

[muon2]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

Ah, the spirit of now closed Antioch College lives on!  Yes, that is another option, that probably adds another 20 basis points maybe (it is just a couple of hyper Dem precincts excised), but that would not be part of OH-08's existing territory, and it would be odd to chop into the tail of OH-08 jutting east. Actually, on second look,  it might be 40 basis points. The NW corner of Greene is a Dem nest. Interesting. Maybe that was not done, to avoid just not screwing Austria, but making him feel such pain that he just unleashes a primal scream - and lashes out. In lieu of that, Austria gets his whole county, and Turner gets his own county, so fair fight, right - not.

Wherever the cut, I think if anyone thought of this option (OH-10 taking all of Clinton County), it was dumped because per the article just put up, the issue of Stivers' PVI was already a topic of controversy, so finding ways to cut it further to hand something to Turner and OH-10 was just not on the table. Just a guess.

As an aside, I think Antioch reopened this year.

[Torie]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

Yes, indeed TJ, your idea adds another 40 basis points to OH-10 (80 basis points total, getting OH-10 up to 50% McCain), and the cut "works" perfectly, taking out the most compelling part of the Dem nest while following municipal lines and all, and "losing" only one small McCain precinct to get there. I am sure that the Pubs considered it, but politics got in the way (Clark didn't want to be cut, Stivers didn't want to be shaved, Austria didn't want to cede any of his home base, and so forth). And to do it really right, OH-08 should take a tad more of Greene to knock it out of Mercer County, and get rid of another county split, and that silly tri-chop up there. That would have really driven Austria over the edge when he loses a couple more Pub precincts from Greene to do that (cutting into Fairborn to grab two or three 60% Obama precincts would be a bridge too far I would think).

Oh, and another issue come to think of it, is that Clinton was in Turner's old CD, and Fayette was in Austria's, so the switch out would further load the already massively loaded dice in favor of Turner. I think what this tells us is that Austria plans to run against Turner in a primary, rather than just find another line of work. In fact, that silly shape of OH-10 in the prior map was probably largely driven by trying to set up a fairer fight between Turner and Austria, since their respective existing territories would have been more balanced.

[jimrtex]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

The ostensible reason for splitting Montgomery and Greene is to provide multiple representatives for Wright-Patman AFB.  That was the reason that Montgomery and Greene were originally kept separate (besides where the representative lived), and then Boehner could cut in from the north a bit.

Wright-Patman is NE of Dayton straddling the county line.

What is on the table per TJ's comment about Yellow Springs, is PA-08 just taking a little bite of out Greene County in lieu of Montgomery. Appending Greene County to Montgomery in general became a done deal long ago.

That would be partisan and petty.

Currently, Wright-Patman has 3 representatives.  Under the original plan, this would have been reduced to two, but OH-15 would have been just north in Clark County.   Under the latest plan, OH-8 is just north of the AFB, but Montgomery and Greene are made whole.  Given the economic, historic, and psychic importance of Wright-Patman that configuration exhibits statesmanship, and putting the interests of Ohio ahead of personal ambition or political gain.

BTW, Antioch has re-opened (with a freshman class of 35).

[Torie]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

The ostensible reason for splitting Montgomery and Greene is to provide multiple representatives for Wright-Patman AFB.  That was the reason that Montgomery and Greene were originally kept separate (besides where the representative lived), and then Boehner could cut in from the north a bit.

Wright-Patman is NE of Dayton straddling the county line.

What is on the table per TJ's comment about Yellow Springs, is PA-08 just taking a little bite of out Greene County in lieu of Montgomery. Appending Greene County to Montgomery in general became a done deal long ago.

That would be partisan and petty.

Currently, Wright-Patman has 3 representatives.  Under the original plan, this would have been reduced to two, but OH-15 would have been just north in Clark County.   Under the latest plan, OH-8 is just north of the AFB, but Montgomery and Greene are made whole.  Given the economic, historic, and psychic importance of Wright-Patman that configuration exhibits statesmanship, and putting the interests of Ohio ahead of personal ambition or political gain.

BTW, Antioch has re-opened (with a freshman class of 35).

Well all that would happen is that the base would be moved into the CD of the most powerful man in the House of Representatives, and OH-10 remains right next door. If the map is done right, there are no additional county splits net, and the map looks better, because OH-10 becomes less erose, along with OH-15. No, I suspect the reasons are the ones that I outlined.  Anyway, so much speculation, and so little time, for this now entirely moot little point.

Is Antioch still doing its study and then go to work, and then back to study program?

[jimrtex]

Maybe it would be better to cut into Greene County? Yellow Springs is pretty heavily Democratic.

The ostensible reason for splitting Montgomery and Greene is to provide multiple representatives for Wright-Patman AFB.  That was the reason that Montgomery and Greene were originally kept separate (besides where the representative lived), and then Boehner could cut in from the north a bit.

Wright-Patman is NE of Dayton straddling the county line.

What is on the table per TJ's comment about Yellow Springs, is PA-08 just taking a little bite of out Greene County in lieu of Montgomery. Appending Greene County to Montgomery in general became a done deal long ago.

That would be partisan and petty.

Currently, Wright-Patman has 3 representatives.  Under the original plan, this would have been reduced to two, but OH-15 would have been just north in Clark County.   Under the latest plan, OH-8 is just north of the AFB, but Montgomery and Greene are made whole.  Given the economic, historic, and psychic importance of Wright-Patman that configuration exhibits statesmanship, and putting the interests of Ohio ahead of personal ambition or political gain.

BTW, Antioch has re-opened (with a freshman class of 35).

Well all that would happen is that the base would be moved into the CD of the most powerful man in the House of Representatives, and OH-10 remains right next door. If the map is done right, there are no additional county splits net, and the map looks better, because OH-10 becomes less erose, along with OH-15. No, I suspect the reasons are the ones that I outlined.  Anyway, so much speculation, and so little time, for this now entirely moot little point.

Is Antioch still doing its study and then go to work, and then back to study program?

I think so.  Though I don't think it was ever "go to work".  That sounds more like Northeastern.

I had heard that Antioch had closed until you mentioned it, and just found through Wikipedia that it was planning on re-opening in 2011 if it raised enough funds from alumni.  The old administrators sold all the assets (buildings etc) to a group of faculty, etc. at a distressed price.  The Antioch web page said that they had re-opened. 

[dpmapper]

I wonder what their odds of getting re-accredited are.  I'm guessing slim. 

We need fewer colleges in this country anyway. 

[greenforest32]

A redistricting commission measure might qualify for the Nov. 2012 ballot. Signature deadline is today and it's a constitutional amendment so I don't think the legislature can override it. Not sure if the measure would redraw the existing maps or just draw the next round of maps in 2021/2022.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/019056910f1b459695944f2c201396f1/OH--Ohio-Redistricting-Amendment

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[minionofmidas]

1. Create the Ohio Citizens Independent Redistricting Commission (“Commission”) to establish the boundaries for Ohio’s state legislative and congressional districts following approval of this amendment and again following each federal decennial census (“census”).

So yeah, they would like to have new lines for 2014.

[Torie]

1. Create the Ohio Citizens Independent Redistricting Commission (“Commission”) to establish the boundaries for Ohio’s state legislative and congressional districts following approval of this amendment and again following each federal decennial census (“census”).

So yeah, they would like to have new lines for 2014.

Is it Constitutional for a state (redraw legislatively passed lines in mid decade) to do that?  After the AZ fiasco (and to a far lessor extent, in CA), I have no interest in such a structure.

[minionofmidas]

Yes as far as federal issues are concerned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's obviously not illegal under federal law (as Texas and Georgia proved). It might be illegal in some states under state laws (apparently it is in Colorado), but if the referendum can make the ballot it clearly isn't in Ohio.

[TJ in Oregon]

It's obviously not illegal under federal law (as Texas and Georgia proved). It might be illegal in some states under state laws (apparently it is in Colorado), but if the referendum can make the ballot it clearly isn't in Ohio.

Even if it were illegal in Ohio, the referendum would be on a constitutional amendment, so it doesn't matter. The constitution trumps the law.

[Gass3268]

This would be great news.

[muon2]

The amendment combines an independent commission structure with the goals used by the redistricting competition. Here's the pdf of the amendment.

[minionofmidas]

The amendment combines an independent commission structure with the goals used by the redistricting competition. Here's the pdf of the amendment.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. Hell, they should just use your map.

[muon2]

The amendment combines an independent commission structure with the goals used by the redistricting competition. Here's the pdf of the amendment.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. Hell, they should just use your map.

If it passes it will be interesting to see how the commission judges the criteria. They could use the same weighting, or give them different weights, including subjective weights.

[Torie]

The amendment combines an independent commission structure with the goals used by the redistricting competition. Here's the pdf of the amendment.

Yeah, I noticed that as well. Hell, they should just use your map.

If it passes it will be interesting to see how the commission judges the criteria. They could use the same weighting, or give them different weights, including subjective weights.

And weighting can be the ball game.

[greenforest32]

The initial round of signatures came up short and they have 10 more days to submit more in order to qualify the measure for the ballot

http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/state-regional/redistricting-petitions-are-short-130000-signature/nPx3M/

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[minionofmidas]

45% invalid? Something stinks here. Possibly both ends.