US House Redistricting: Ohio

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's exactly the map where it's more of a question as to when it'll backfire, not if it will.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW I have a tough time believing that map would ever stand a VRA challenge since it is largely based on diluting the black population of Columbus as much as possible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem is that there is no way Johnson survives once there is a wave or at least pretty good Democratic year. Now you can probably give him the best district possible and hope he survives as long as he can and maybe even build up a bit of a personal vote if that wave comes, but it'd be a waste to try to make rock solid. Kind of the attitude the PA Republicans have taken to Barletta.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if the Massachusetts Dems were to draw as Republican a district as possible, it still wouldn't guarantee electing a Republican. The best you could hope for is about an Obama +6 or so district in southeastern Mass. There's less of an excuse when a compact Columbus district would easily elect a Democrat.

I remember reading on SSP that it's apparently possible to draw a McCain seat in SE Mass, and an Obama by only a few hundred votes one in the NE. Obviously will never happen. I'm kind of skeptical though, I tried a McCain seat in Connecticut and don't think it's possible, I could only get to about 52% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jordan against Boehner hah. Brilliant. Especially as with today's GOP primary electorate Jordan very well could win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one in Minnesota ever says that they are from ________ Township. They are just from "outside *nearest city/town*"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That 15th might be the ugliest proposed district yet, and I don't think it's likely to be topped.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So possible court drawn map? Time to draw one in DRA I guess.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm drawing my own court map now. As a general from what I've noticed, courts tend to respect current districts even when the lines are already illogical and a gerrymander (hence the initial preservation of most of the Frostocity in 2002), but when they have to make big changes due to new seats or loss of them are really big on respecting communities of interest and what. Incumbent protection rarely comes into play beyond the respecting current lines thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know if this comes to a vote, I really do wonder how the Ohio GOP will campaign in favor of that map. Will be amusing.

Probably some type of nonsense about "special interests" trying to overturn the "people's will" (based on the logic the legislature represents the people in every single thing they do) and blab about how the legislative map is obviously more fair because it's drawn by people elected as opposed to an unelected group and completely ignore all merits of the map (ignoring the fact that the most fair group to draw the maps that are used to elect officials are the elected officials themselves is a statement on about the same level of logic as your average wormyguy post.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here's my attempt to a court map, mostly respecting the old boundaries:



OH-01: I kept the Butler county portions but included more black parts of Cincinati. It's over 54% Obama and about 51% average for Democrats, so a real swing seat, Chabot probably holds it though unless black turnout surges again a la 2008.
OH-02: The Appalachian parts that hated Schmidt and put her in danger are gone. It's almost 64% McCain, so safe as long as Schmidt continues to keep her mouth shut.
OH-03: The Dayton area kind of draws itself well, but the GOP had to make this seat ugly anyway. Won by McCain by 0.1% and averages 51.5 R-48.5 D. So Turner would be fine, would be competitive if open with a pretty good Dem candidate though.
OH-04: Still contains Jordan's home but restructured to more of a Columbus suburbs seat. Over 56% McCain, a bit less GOP but even Jordan should be fine.
OH-05: This is kind of the same, now includes Lima I guess, almost 55% McCain, that boring forgettable white guy that Ohio is full of is safe.
OH-06: Now a bit more Mahoning Valley based, narrowly for McCain but over 60% Dem average, if Wilson lives here prime for a comeback. Probably would vote Dem in most cases.
OH-07: This is now completely different and has removed Austria's home and his base (cue krazen: OMG RACIST CONSPIRACY!), now it's more of an Appalachian seat like the current OH-18, so the guy who holds it probably runs here, a bit more Republican than OH-07 but definitely winnable for the right Democrat. 52.3% McCain, 56.5% Democratic.
OH-08: Some minor geographic changes but still clearly safe R and for Boehner, 63.2% McCain.
OH-09: This seat is kept the same largely even if it's a Dem pack seat to benefit the GOP, safe D of course.
OH-10: Yeah Kucinich hangs on. Actually the seat is only 54.3% Obama, so he might be sort of vulnerable.
OH-11: 46.8% Black VAP, Fudge is safe of course, no VRA problems.
OH-12: Less of Columbus proper and a bit more GOP, Tiberi is safe. Would be competitive if open though. 52.4% Obama, 51.7% Dem
OH-13: This is now an Akron-based seat. Since Summit county gets screwed over in so many potential maps I'm happy I was able to keep it intact. Great seat for Sutton. 56.5% Obama, 62.1% Dem.
OH-14: This seat now contains Youngstown and is no longer an attempt to gerrymander a Republican seat in a region that shouldn't have one. 56.5% Obama, 61.5% Dem. Bye bye LaTourette. Tim Ryan probably runs here.
OH-15: 59.6% Obama, goodbye Stivers.
OH-16: This one is actually largely unchanged. 50.7% McCain but 51.4% McCain, a swing seat, but probably requires another Dem wave.

So that's 4 GOP seats, 6 Dem seats, and 6 swing seats, though most of those have good GOP incumbents.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2) Mandate at-large elections with the specific exception of any VRA districts. Let Fudge run in an AA-majority district centered in East Cleveland. The remaining fifteen [almost] at-large districts would be problematic for the Democrats.

No that would be illegal, any method besides single member districts has been illegal since the 60s.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think that'd be legal even when At-large seats existed. They existed and operated the same way some city councils and county commissions still do, the entire state was divided into districts with some additional at-large seats. For example Ohio could theoretically be divided into say 13 districts with three at-large seats if that was still legal. But having one seat for one specific part of the state and everything else a set of giant at-large districts is the type of thing just so egregious it'd never fly in court even if the law wasn't specifically prohibiting it (and note that OH-11 is not mandated by the VRA.)

I should also note that people like Jean Schmidt and Jim Jordan would obviously not survive, and Boehner and would never be willing to take that risk. Obama still won Ohio outside of the current OH-11 by over a point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have him on ignore but unfortunately can read his threads thanks to the quoting, and his "logic" is making my head hurt. Also the idea that Ohio's Republican delegation to Congress especially Boehner would ever agree to that plan in a million years is even more delusional than the idea any court would uphold it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Austria's current seat is already kind of a leftovers district so eliminating it is pretty fair. But of course doing that would be OMG RACIST!!11!!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why would blacks want a map like that? It hardly increases their influence, nor is any incumbent going to call for it (the big difference between this and Missouri.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I fail to see how you could draw a map where Chabot is still heavily favored and argue this is the best map for blacks to get black Democrats on board. Has any black Democrat expressed interest in cooperating? Seems like grasping at straws to me...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK but why would black Democrats be excited about stranding thousands of black voters in a Republican district?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Chabot can be made pretty safe with most of Cincy's black population (since 2008 black turnout overstates Obama numbers), can there even be a Kerry CD based in Cincinnati?

Oh yeah. Easily. The current OH-01 only voted for Bush in 2004 by a point, and that's with the Butler County portion and some of the black areas taken out (and most of the few white liberal areas in Cincinnati in OH-02)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's obviously not illegal under federal law (as Texas and Georgia proved). It might be illegal in some states under state laws (apparently it is in Colorado), but if the referendum can make the ballot it clearly isn't in Ohio.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So I ended up redrawing all of Ohio's legislature for both houses. I started for basically two reasons, to get a feel for how the layout the state skews the partisan numbers, and to experiment with grouping three House seats into one Senate. The latter is actually a tad tricky, since you might have an area that's an obvious community of interest and has seven districts, but one has to be left out, and you end up with some awkward Senate districts. But those will come later. For now: House.



DISTRICT 1: WESTERN A CERTAIN OHIO COUNTY THAT IS NOTHING LIKE BAKERSFIELD, CALIFORNIA. O 26.2%.  96W.  This is actually the most conservative district in the state and the only one where McCain broke 70%. Most likely the same for Romney. Not much to see, Safe R.

DISTRICT 2: WEST CINCINNATI O 59.3%.  61.5W/33.1B. While more conservative than the rest of Cincinnati, this would take a severe drop in black turnout to ever be truly competitive. Likely D.

DISTRICT 3: CENTRAL CINCINNATI: O 85.2%. 50.4B/42.7W. Black majority and just barely in VAP. Obviously Safe D. Even the whites in this district seem to be pretty D.

DISTRICT 4: NORTH CINCINNATI: O 58.7%. 64W/31.6B. This is rather similar to 2 demographically, basically the same, Likely D. A bit more winnable of course.

DISTRICT 5: THE NORTH CENTRAL OF THIS CERTAIN COUNTY:  O 54.1%. 65.5W/26.4B. Probably Lean D. The demographics make it far more winnable in midterms.

DISTRICT 6: EAST CINCINNATI: O 44.6%. 90.6W/4.1B. While this is not as conservative as the demographics would imply in this area, it's still not winnable for any Democrat. Safe R.

DISTRICT 7: THE OTHER MIAMI AND INDIAN HILL: O 46.7%. 78.1W/14.8B. Kind of the same as above. While it's not overwhelmingly conservative, Democrats aren't winning any McCain seat in this region. Safe R.

DISTRICT 8: SOUTH CLERMONT: O 34.1%. 95.7W. Predictable district. Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: NORTH CLERMONT-BROWN: O 33.8%. 96.7 W. Another predictable one. Safe R.

DISTRICT 10: WEST BUTLER: O 40.9%. 89.7W/4.6B. While not as homogenous as you'd expect, this is still a Safe R seat.

DISTRICT 11: SOUTHEAST BUTLER: O 36.8%. 80.7W/8.8B/4.9H/4.3A. Despite the relative diversity, this is another Safe R seat.

DISTRICT 12: EAST CENTRAL BUTLER: O 36.9%. 87.8W/7B. Another generic Safe R seat.

DISTRICT 13: MASON AND LEBANON: O 33.4%. 88W/5.4A. Now it's easy to see where bandit's political outlook comes from. Safe R.

DISTRICT 14: REST OF WARREN AND BUTLER: O 30.2%. 93W/4B. I think this might be the second most R seat in the state. Safe R.

DISTRICT 15: PREBLE AND WEST MONTGOMERY: O 36.6%. 92.8W/4.4B. As expected, Safe R.

DISTRICT 16: WEST DAYTON: O 85.5%. 67B/29.5W. The black part of Dayton, and an effective Dem pack. Safe D.

DISTRICT 17: SOUTH MONTGOMERY: O 38.9%. 88.4W/4.9B. Another one of those generic Safe R seats.

DISTRICT 18: SOUTHEAST DAYTON AND KETTERING: O 47.4%. 90.7W. Not an overwhelmingly conservative seat, but Obama did outperform the generic D numbers here. It's probably at best Likely R.

DISTRICT 19: NORTHEAST DAYTON, VANDALIA AND HUBER HEIGHTS: O 47.2%. 82.6W/10.6B. Same as above basically....except the generic D and R numbers are pretty close here. This might be a bit more competitive even if McCain's numbers are slightly better. Lean R.

DISTRICT 20: MIAMI AND SOUTH SHELBY: O 33.7%. 95.3W. Very boring and homogenous rural seat. Safe R.

And more to come. So far though this is 15R-5D seats.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not familiar with the constitution of Ohio. I only looked for general CoI and population equality. That said though there are some districts I hate and had no choice but to draw this way, there are worse ones in the actual map.

More:



DISTRICT 21: SPRINGFIELD: O 49.7%. 86.1W/9.5B. You'd kind of expect this seat to be a more D on paper than the Obama/McCain or Romney numbers, but the generic D/R numbers are only 51/49. Definitely a true tossup.
DISTRICT 22: DARKE AND MERCER: O 29%. 97.7W. Ultraconservative rurals. Safe R.
DISTRICT 23: SIDNEY AND URBANA: O 36.4%. 94.9W. Another essentially rural and very conservative and homogenous seat. Ohio is full of boring ones like this. Safe R.
DISTRICT 24: LIMA: O 37.7%. 86.2W/10B. Considering that it's more urban and actually has a black population, it's kind of surprising this is still so conservative. Lima must be as awful a place as Glee being set there would imply. Safe R.
DISTRICT 25: PAULDING AND WERT-PUTNAM: O 36.1%. 94.3W. More boring conservative rurals. Safe R.
DISTRICT 26: WILLIAMS AND FULTON AND HENRY: O 43.8%. W94/H 4.3. Not as conservative as the rest and actually has a bit of a Hispanic population, based on the location I'm going to guess that the manufacturing industry isn't quite as dead here as elsewhere. Still it's probably at best Likely R, it'll take a real wave or scandal-plagued Republican for a Democrat to take this one.
DISTRICT 27: FINDLAY AND SOUTH WOOD: O 41.9%. 91.4W/4.8H. Kind of a combination of the last one and more those boring rurals. Still Safe R.
DISTRICT 28: BOWLING GREEN: O 52.2%. 91.4W/2.6B/3.3H/1.7A. Finally an interesting seat. Based around a big university and some of southwest Lucas County. Very variable on turnout. Obvious tossup.
DISTRICT 29: WEST LUCAS: O 51%. 88.9W/4.9B/2.5H/2.6A. Mostly blue collar Toledo suburbs, some affluent ones and exurbs to cancel it out. Generic D did way better here, but as is it's a tossup.
DISTRICT 30: SENECA AND SANDUSKY: O 48.6%. 92.1W/4.7H. I was going to name this "Seneca and Penn State Disgrace" but my last joke name didn't go over well and that's a bit touchier subject...regardless this district was quite narrowly for McCain, Romney did a tad better, and even the generic D/R numbers tilt Republican, so it's probably Lean R.

So that leaves us with 22R - 5D - 3 Tossup. It gets better in later parts of the state though.