US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hey, Muon2, are you going to drink the kook-aid and now put all those Dems in Columbus in one of more GOP districts, rather than just give up, and give them a CD, or, alternatively do something creative, and combine them with some Dems in Cleveland or Akron, thereby creating some hideous looking gerrymander for the ages map, or what? 

What? You didn't appreciate my Sept. offering? Look how neat and compact most of the districts are as well. Of course, with the 5 district pick up this week, a map like this would still cost on GOP member in 2012.

If I assume GOP control, then this was my attempt to maximize their result. I kept counties as intact as possible and kept districts defensibly compact. The VRA district links Akron to Cleveland along the Cuyahoga Valley NP. Based on the nearly even presidential results of 2004 to judge the districts this would be 12-4 in favor of the GOP.

That thing is a monstrosity   Well done

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

With the neutron bomb that dropped on Cleveland causing so many folks to vanish (mostly Dems), how many seats are the Dems down to in Ohio now, if the GOP does an intelligent gerrymander? I still don't like the idea of not giving the Dems a Columbus seat, but if someone has some hard data that it remains prudent to still chop up Columbus among a bunch of Pubbie seats, taking into consideration that the number of Democrats in the Columbus area will continue to grow robustly, I would like to see it.

I think it's more that Ohio Republicans (especially in Central Ohio) don't want to screw Stivers than anything else.  From a gerrymandering standpoint, you're right, but there are other interests that will also need to be taken into account (which is also why I think the Republicans are going screw Johnson, instead of trying to knock out two Democrats in the Northeast).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's interesting that you guys are able to get the Dems down to 3 districts in the NE. Imho that is even more of a reason to give the Dems a seat in Columbus and make sure you don't lose any central or western Ohio seats even in a bad year. It would really suck for the pubbies if a few districts flipped in the northeast as well as Columbus. And the trend is in the wrong direction in Columbus for the GOP.

Ask and ye shall receive. This is drawn with the final numbers, screws Stivers, and gives everyone else 'safe' seats, although I'm not sure about the slate green 6th, and I'm not 100% sure about that 14th.

Between Stark County, Tuscawaras County, and the remainder of the Mahoning Valley outside of Youngstown/Warren, I tried to split it between 3 districts. I am also not sure if the orange district has an incumbent in it; someone might have to move.

Columbus is something I'm just not willing to crack anymore.




Keep in mind that Renacci lives in Medina County. I think you just put him in with Latuorette.

Although it would make more sense to just give the Democrats a safe seat in Columbus, I have a very hard time seeing the Ohio Republican party screwing Stivers (although I agree with Torie that their failure to do so will inevitably backfire).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Does anyone else feel it's far more likely that the Republicans will pack and crack Dems as much as possible--as shown in the maps--than that they will send Republican districts reaching very far afield to pick up safe counties?

The first part of the equation makes more sense to me than others. Republicans don't care what happens to Dems, but as in Wisconsin where a breakup of Milwaukee suburbs to drown Eau Claire in a sea of Republican precincts seems unlikely, so too is rural western and central Ohio legislators agreeing to splintering their districts in order to help out Republican reps in distant parts of the state. Krazen's map may effectively pack Dems, but no Republican wants to represent either the red or yellow districts in northern Ohio. Nor does Delaware County want a rep from Canton. Just my two cents.  

Yes, trying to have Pubbie incumbents keep familiar (and friendly) territory is important if it does not hurt efficiency too much, and I do worry about that all the time, and will in OH. But so far all I was doing was eviscerating Dem CD's. How to handle the Pubbie zone comes next. But if my wrap idea for LaTourette is dead, I would like to know that now, before I proceed.

And this map has to be super efficient, particularly if there is to be no Dem CD in Columbus. The Dem pack for its three CD's needs to be pushed, and pushed hard. We cannot be detained by annoying little details such as erosity, respecting county or municipal lines, and so forth. We just need to be driven by the location of the Dems, and nothing much else. This is a redux of what I did to the Philly metro area - another brutal Gerry.

Torie, I think Brittain33 is right.  I know that the map is meant to be as efficient a gerrymander as possible, but I doubt that's the top concern of Ohio Republicans (community/local interests and individual political calculations can easily become higher priorities).  It seems like in this map, and even your PA map go with the assumption that the only priority for state Republicans will be passing the most effective gerrymander possible (although this is certainly one of the top priorities, I doubt it will be as dominant a priority as your maps would require).     

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Approximate McCain percentages on this map.

Chabot   51% McCain
Schmidt   54% McCain
Turner   53% McCain
Jordan   58% McCain
Latta   52% McCain
Johnson   53% McCain
Austria   56% McCain
Boehner   62% McCain
Kaptur   27% McCain
Gibbs   56% McCain
Fudge   21% McCain
Tiberi   55% McCain
Ryan   26% McCain
Latuor   50% McCain
Stivers   30% McCain
Renacci   53% McCain

This map puts Gibbs and Tiberi in the same district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interestingly, Stu Rothenburg pegs Renacci as a weak incumbent who benefited inordinately from the wave. He also picks out Buerkle and Ellmers as behaving like one-term wonders, and Dold and Meehan as strong reps.

I have to believe Renacci would be in trouble against a Cuyahoga democrat (not Kucinich!) under that map.

Without question, in fact, I could  even see Renacci losing in 2012 in the district that map gives him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Johnson's district is no more McCainish than Renacci's, on less traditional Republican territory. How do commentators and whatnot peg Johnson so far? Strong? Weak?
At least he doesn't have Renacci's problem of a competent Democratic incumbent. Your OH-16 sort of has PA-17 written all over it if things go even a tiny bit of wrong.

Johnson is considered pretty weak from what I understand.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh, yes, OH-06 has heavily GOP suburban Canton, and somewhat less heavily GOP south suburban Akron, and that has been "traditionally Pubbie" since about 1856.

I don't understand, then. If it's so heavily Pubbie, why is it when combined with traditionally Democratic Appalachian areas that swung to McCain in '08, it's only at 51% McCain?

Because almost everything else in OH-06 is marginal in PVI terms (mostly the tonier suburban areas of Youngstown and Warren (well as tony as it gets for that metro zone, which ain't much), except for Columbia County, or leans Dem PVI, such as Jefferson and Monroe Counties, or is heavily Dem, to wit Belmont County.  

Ok, and if these areas swung Republican in 2008 in common with other Appalachian-steel areas, what are the implications for the viability of a 13-3 map based on this district's PVI being above your benchmark?

I'm going to be direct, because I want to discuss it. I find what you're doing to be amazing as a thought experiment to pack Dems in the smallest number of districts and redistribute the remaining territory along a somewhat arbitrary line of "safety." I think the maps are beautiful illustrations of what can be done with data. But no real map is going to go to this extent, no matter how seriously people take Republican leadership, no matter how many arms Boehner twists.

It's not that I'm biased as a Dem or that I lack balls or whatever, or I fail to appreciate why this year is different and why Republicans simply must do it. This is just not the map that people draw. I don't see anything in Pennsylvania or even Maryland that looks as attenuated and erose as the lines here, doing multiple one-precinct isthmuses to link groups of white voters and splitting municipalities in many places. I also don't see Republican legislators giving up coherent blocks of geography to represent amorphous districts designed with PVI in mind first. I think too many legislators share the common revulsion with extreme gerrymandering that strikes on sight that most of us have outgrown. Most of all, I don't think Republicans are going to draw themselves districts that are as close to the margins as OH-10 and OH-6 in your map, no matter what argument you can present, because they don't want to be at risk in good years or in bad years, and a bad year would wipe out your Republican delegation like Hamlet's family in Act V.

I believe you are coming up with the solution that needs to be done to create a hypothetical "13-3" map. And that is why I believe there will be no 13-3 map in Ohio.

I agree completely with this part, and I'd like to hear Torie's response to this as it could easily be the death of this map were proposed, imo.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Torie, why do you assume Boehner would want to represent Clark County?  My guess is he's perfectly happy with his current seat.  The Johnson and Renacci districts, and to a much lesser degree those drawn for Ryan and Gibbs, seem unlikely (lack of community of interest, too much precision required, etc).  Also, bare in mind when making this map that the Ohio Republican party is currently heading towards 2006/Bob Taft level unpopularity (not just anger at Kasich, but the whole state party).  Additionally, it's looking like a referendum on SB5 will probably be on the ballot in 2012.  Also, don't assume politicians will automatically put their personal interests ahead of their party's, it happens all the time (example: white Democrats not wanting a safe seat to go to an African-American in AR may well result in an awful dummymander, which seems to be fine by local Democrats).  I am skeptical that a quad-chop map of Franklin county would get enough Republican support to pass.  Plus the map is so easy to attack from a public relations stand-point, just look at the Northeast, it doesn't even pretend (the way Michigan's current map does) to be anything other than the most grotesque of gerrymanders (this is probably the least important concern).  Just some things to keep in mind.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you are going to not have a Dem seat in Columbus, the over Pubbied CD's need to take a haircut, and Boehner's currently clocks in with a GOP PVI of about 15 - yes fifteen.  That will need to be cut in half. I will try to keep him at an 8, but no promises (I do promise him at least a 7). Boehner has a national perspective, and I am sure will be a team player on this. His home is in an inconvenient place - very inconvenient - and if he were not who he is, the odds are the legislature would tell him to move, because Chabot needs all of Butler. But alas, given the situation, Chabot cannot have any more of Butler, or anything north of it, so his CD is going to expand to the only place it can - to the northeast, taking in the northeast corner of Hamilton, and the SW corner of Warren. Moreover, Schmidt in any event under-performs for a Pubbie in her share of Hamilton (the highest SES zone in Hamilton by far except for her 10 black precincts which she will be keeping, because Chabot gets no traction with his black precincts either - blacks just don't vote for Pubbies - who knew?). Chabot will do much better with these high SES white folks that he will be picking up. Schmidt however runs just fine with the less cosmopolitan folks living along the Ohio River to the east, and I intend to give her a lot more of such people.  

That's not completely true.  While Schmidt does better against generic Democrats in the rural areas, the right kind of Democrat (pre-implosion Paul Hackett, for example) could certainly beat her in an Ohio river district (and keep the seat for the foreseeable future).  And since it looks like you're planning to draw Strickland's home into her district...

With regard to Boehner, I think that once Congressman get to a certain level of power, the instinct is often to oppose anything less than a hyper-safe district (as in their party PVI higher than 10).  I don't think Boehner will be as much of a team player as you do on this, b/c it doesn't currently seem like the Democrats would take back the house even with a fair map, let alone a Republican hyper-gerrymander.  So I suspect he'll want his district's GOP PVI to be more or less the same.  Basically, I agree with Britain33 (though I think the Republicans will screw up Franklin County no matter what they do).  I could see a less grotesque and much less effective/safe -2 Democratic seats map passing, however.    

Btw, Torie, as a fairly liberal Democrat I shudder at your maps, yet I can't help but have a huge admiration for the time, effort, thought, and attention to detail that you clearly put into them.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also there are several Republicans I could see getting screwed (and Stivers is NOT one of them, state party really, really likes him, they see him as a rising star).  Bill Johnson doesn't really have any connections in the state party, he's new, he's not a strong Congressman anyway, and probably wouldn't be missed.  Bob Gibbs is probably somewhat better connected, but he's still a new back-bencher who will probably never be anything more than a back-bencher.  Renacci's new and has a reputation for being a pretty weak Congressman.  The Republicans in the legislature hate Schmidt almost as much as the Democrats do (she was sort of like our version of pre-Congress Bill Sali for a while). 

With regard to Clark County, while this wouldn't ALWAYS be a safe Republican district, if you connected Clark and Montgomery counties, it would be a safe (even against a strong candidate in an anti-GOP wave year) for as long Mike Turner stayed in Congress.  He's pretty popular in Dayton, always has been.  He's the type of GOP Congressman who is strong enough to take in swing/Democratic territory.  Also, I still have doubts that a quad-chop map of Franklin county could get passed (not that I don't see way you want that).  That way you free up a bunch of wasted Republican suburban votes (Turner never really needed the help, the suburbs were added more to convince him to run than anything else).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also, I think they'll focus on making Boehner, Stivers, Tiberi, Jordan, Chabot, and Austria happy first and foremost, even at the expense of Schmidt, Gibbs, Johnson, and Renacci.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Which just means that any map that all the R's intended as winning are actually happy with and safe (barring events) under, is an 11-5 map (or rather 10-5-1 taking account of Chabot's. 9-5-2 after Turner retires, should that happen during the decade. Unless Torie pubbied those up. Oh yeah, 8-5-3 if LaTourette retires, though I see no reason why he should.). Which, however, is exceedingly unlikely to actually happen - as that would mean Republicans abolishing two Republican districts.

True, you do have to gamble somewhere with a 12-4 map. That means leaving Johnson's district intact and hoping he can hold it; although the removal of Athens would help.

You're correct about Latuorette, but not so much about Chabot and Turner. Both of them can be put into a district that has at least a Republican tilt simply by spreading out Mean Jean's GOP strength a bit, and Boehner chipping in a point or two here and there. On my map in post 154 I put them in 51/53% McCain districts; it could be 53/53 if Mr. Boehner would consent to grabbing some Hamilton County blacks.

The good thing about Ohio is that they have a couple heavy hitters in Congress; I expect Boehner's team to be actually dictating the maps, just as Cantor's team did in Virginia and Hastert's team in Illinois 10 years ago. So, they won't have to worry about much about 'local' concerns about undesirable maps, unlike, say, Arkansas and Louisiana, the latter of which is obviously struggling with intraparty bickering. But if Louisiana had a committee chairman somewhere, there would be an obvious need to protect his district, and the rest of the map would fall into place.

The good thing is that Sutton and Kucinich have essentially no cross-party appeal. Sutton, for example, always loses that strip of territory in southern Cuyahoga County, even in 2006.

Hastert didn't dictate the map in IL, that was a prime example of how politicians sometimes put their interests ahead of their party's interests.  Chicago Democrats were fine with a Republican incumbent protection plan that took away one non-Chicago Democratic seat because things were less polarized which meant that they gained some influence from having Hastert as Speaker.  Also, I doubt Cantor dictated the Virginia map, as he wasn't a top member of the House Republican leadership yet.  Remember, in PA they didn't go with the map national Republicans originally wanted, that could certainly happen here. 

I also suspect Schmidt would've lost to Hackett in the district Torie's drawn for her.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow this is coming together very well. I'm very impressed. Looks like you have the numbers needed to finish the deed. Of course it could also lead to a 13-3 map in the wrong direction. But no, you have protected the pubbies against that pretty well. Let's see if the legislature does just as good of a job.

Thank you. They will have my map of course, and I will defend it to the death!    All my maps will be pushed.

The next chapter is to map out how the four CD's will chop Columbus. I will post a map of how I plan to chop Columbus because that is quite a fascinating task to do it right. It is tricky, because there is a traffic jam as to where the incumbents live, with 3 within about 5 miles of each other. Tiberi and Stivers (with Stivers in a heavily Dem precinct, living in a charming old house), are within about 15 blocks of each other. So how to do it right, without giving incumbents entirely new CD's. It is what we call in the trade a "balancing act."

Turner in Montgomery creates a blockade that does not allow Boenher to transfer some of his Pubbie strength into the Columbus chop CD's, because to do that, he would have to cut deep into Montgomery, and then Turner into Greene and on into Franklin to join in the chop , but that can't happen, because the incumbent in OH-07 lives just across the Montgomery County line to the east, and Turner's CD is not going to be chopped that way, and on and on. Schmidt had to suck up 5 black wards in Columbus to get Chabot's numbers up to where they needed to be. So her share of Hamilton is now about 2-1 Dem.

And oh yes: Sutton and Bocerri's (sp) homes are now both in OH-13, to create another impediment in challenging the Pubbie in OH-16.  

But the most important thing, is that I think I got my color scheme about the best that it can be now. Map decor is important too!  

Keep in mind that Tiberi, Stivers, and to a lesser degree Austria will probably want a suburban GOP district, not one that takes in large swaths of rural territory. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes, indeed, but even more important than that, is that they would like their Pubbie numbers up. As much as possible, Stivers and Tiberi will keep their territory in Franklin that they actually do well in. But there will need to be some shift, because Stivers needs to punch north to make it all work. Walls are created by where the Dem precincts are, and where Tiberi and Stivers live.

Anyway, here is the story of what I did to OH-03. Turner took about two thirds of the remaining Dem precincts in Montgomery he did not have before from OH-08 (maybe 2-1 Dem or so), and lost GOP Highland County, but took most of the rest of Warren, which gave him a net gain about about 2.5 Pubbie points. Boehner losing those Montgomery precincts allowed him to such up all of Clark County, which was his job in preparation for the Columbus chop by the four CD's on deck to effect that deed.

I think you're wasting a lot of Republicans shoring up Turner, he'll be around for a while (probably until the next redistricting).  Schmidt may have problems in the district you're drawing, though I'll comment more about that when I see the final form of the district.  I still think Renacci and Johnson's districts go through more trouble to protect those two than most Ohio Republicans are willing to do (especially the Cleveland portion of Renacci's district).  I could see Stivers expanding north, but I'm not sure he'll want to (he might be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he gets to heavily Republican a district).  Tiberi will probably want a suburban district, but that's easier, I suspect.  Also, Austria has solid connections in the legislature, and will probably get whatever district he wants, even if it costs several Republican points (something that I'm sure you know could be a major problem for Republicans representing part of Franklin County).  Also, I wonder (though I'd need to see the Republican PVI) if Gibbs might now be vulnerable, since Charlie Wilson said he'd run if he got a district he thought was winnable.  Gibbs is on the weaker end of generic R, hardly a top-tier candidate.  Wilson is, as I understand it, a very good fit for the Ohio River/Appalachia counties and the district includes all of Athens and Belmont (Wilson's home base, I think) counties.  However, Chabot seems to be protected as best as can realistically be done and LaTourette should be fine until he leaves office/next redistricting.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Schmidt's OH-02 CD is in final form. It won't change.

I would be interested in how you would draw the state. In any event, we have different philosophies I think. I don't care much who represents a +5% GOP CD. The Dem will either be house broken, and a moderate, or will be gone in short order. If that means means a few weak Pubbies go down the drain in the meantime, that is probably for the best. If Schmidt can't win a +9% GOP PVI CD, then good riddance to her!  

I suspect most of the maps will be drawn just about the way I drew them. I try to balance carefully the competing considerations. I doubt if Wilson will run, but it would be easy to dump his home into OH-06 by shifting a precinct or two, but I am told that Johnson is weak too. In any event, I am not going to shave down a GOP CD elsewhere to over Pubbie a CD to prop up a weak incumbent. That is just dumb in my opinion. I need each and every Pubbie I saved to make the Columbus chop reasonably safe. I am just not going to shave down the Columbus chop CD's much below a 5% GOP PVI. That would be the dumbest thing to do of all in my opinion. So I won't do it!  

Here is a map where Charlie baby has been moved to OH-06. See how easy that was? Now of course if I did this, I will get posts about how that threatens Johnson, and I need to Pubbie up that CD more with unavailable Pubbies, waving some magic wand, that does not wreak havoc elsewhere. Or maybe I will be told again that some incumbent Pubbie just needs to be affirmatively tossed to the dogs.  Maybe I need to move Wilson into Boehner's CD!  Or I will be told again that the map I am drawing which actually makes possible the GOP goals here in a reasonable way, is impossible, a claim that is clearly errant in my opinion. What I have not yet been told is how to do any of this in a more effective manner that meets any sensible objection function as to the purpose of this map - which is to influence public policy in a Pubbie direction.  Isn't that the purpose of a GOP gerrymander - the only sensible purpose?

I'm planning to put up my own map over the summer (I would do this sooner, but college work comes first!).  I actually think that Republicans would be better off if Schmidt lost (I view it as sort of like CO-4, now Republicans won't have to spend money on that seat in the foreseeable future), but that's beside the point.  While I agree with you that the only sensible purpose of a GOP-gerrymander is to move public policy in a Republican direction, I think another purpose (albeit a less sensible one) will inevitably be to accommodate certain Republicans, even at the expense of the first goal (that's just the way things work, as I'm sure you know). I do think Republicans would be better off with Wilson in Johnson's CD, as Wilson would have no cross-over appeal in the Stark county part of the district, whereas he would in many parts of Gibb's district.  However, I certainly hope you don't think I am only criticizing, without an alternative, I just don't have time at the moment to put together a whole map (though I intend to over the summer).  Don't get me wrong, this map is a work of art, and it is more or less the best way to do a 13-3 map, but I don't think that is the only factor to take into account when making maps, even gerrymanders.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OK, I will make the adjustment. It does not move the partisan numbers at all. Drawing an intelligent map takes a lot of work, as I assume you know.

These fly by maps just won't cut it. How much time do you think I spent on my Ohio map?  
And the thing is, when I sell them, I will I think be able to defend them in detail, and if some pet Pubbie wants special handling, that f's things up,  I will make waves about it. I intend to cause trouble on this one, if need be.

Fair enough  To answer your question, if I had to guess how much time was spent on this, I would guess somewhere in the neighborhood of 2 weeks (off the top of my head guess) at the least.  However, I do agree that it can screw up a great map when incumbents aren't willing to "take one for the team."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Columbus:
4. Jordan- run this one straight into Columbus to crack it. I had no precinct data, so I just guessed he would get 219,000 people who vote 66% Obama (I tried to give him more of the black areas since the rest of his district is safer). I also think (though I am not totally sure) that the southern part of Franklin County is more heavily Democratic than the northern part.

15. Stivers- I think he’ll end up with most of Delaware County because everything will have to expand to the northeast. Other than that I’m not really sure. I think I guessed his Franklin County share would be about 58% Obama.

7. Austria- give him a little more of Columbus otherwise the same same. I guessed his Franklin County part would be about 64% Obama.

12. Tiberi- he’ll have to gain some part of Knox, Morrow, Richland, and Ashland counties to make his seat safer.

I realize my Columbus thoughts are pretty much useless and must admit I know practically nothing about the geography of that city.

Tiberi lives in Delaware County, so Stivers can't get that

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Let me throw some lighter fluid onto the fire: Pat Tiberi is suddenly talking about running for the Senate. What happens if he vacates his marginal Columbus-area seat?

Well, I don't think he'd beat Brown (although it would be close), I could easily see the seat flipping (or not, a lot depends on the candidates and to a somewhat lesser degree the district).  Paula Brooks would be a really strong Democratic candidate (she would have definitely won in 2006, and probably won or lost by a razor-thin margin in 2008).  In an open-seat race, baring in mind that the Republican nominee is by no means guaranteed to be as strong as Tiberi, I could see Brooks winning an open-seat.  I don't know which Columbus district Cordray will end up living in, but if he decides to run for Congress (although, this is somewhat unlikely, as he is widely believed to be planning on challenging Kasich in 2014, and would probably win).  However, were he to change his mind or decide to try to also pick up a House seat for the Democrats, he'd win (He won Franklin County by about 20% in 2010).  Another possible candidate is State Representative Nancy Garland who won reelection in 2010 in a district that was one of the top Republican targets that year (there's not really a way around including her most (if not all) of her district in the portion of Franklin County that goes to Tiberi's district.  I'm sure there are other potential Democratic candidates, but with the lines undetermined its hard to say (and the Republicans also have a bench in this area).  Basically, an open seat here could certainly be a Democratic pickup, but it's not a sure thing.          

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We have a ballot box stuffing issue! And the Pubbies did it at two and a half times the rate the Dems did! And here I thought that is was the Dems who were the specialists in vote fraud.  What happened?    I suspect I counted some county twice or something. I will figure it out. It is not due to a double count in Franklin. My numbers there reconcile within a few hundred votes.

What a nightmare that was, to keep each precinct in Franklin in the right one of four potential CD's. I finally had to have a worksheet, with a column of all the precincts, and then put the returns for each precinct in the right cell under the column for the CD to which it was assigned, with whatever CD it was in being in the same row (so that each CD column had a lot of blacks for rows in which the subject precincts where in another CD). That way, I made sure no precincts were missed, and none double assigned. In the end, that was the only way to do it, without ending up with a lot of errors. The problem was that most of the chopping was in the city of Columbus rather than between towns, and Columbus has about 520 precincts, so the potential for making errors was considerable.

With all due respect, the legislature is probably not going screw over Stivers in a primary like that, Republicans are not going to focus on aggressive, partisan efficiency in the single-minded way your map does.  They'll take it into account, but it won't over-ride everything else by default.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How is Stivers screwed again? Too much rural territory?  Somebody has to take it, and the only issue is how it is shared between OH-15 and OH-12.  The alternative, is the risk goes up that one or the other seats, or both, might go Dem in the general. I think the Pubbies would rather Stivers or Tiberi lose in a primary, than one of them lose to a Dem in the general. In the meantime, I need to figure out where my error(s) is/are. That might influence the map a bit. There is no way either Oh-12 or OH-15 will be allowed to be significantly more Pubbie than OH-04 or OH-07 for example, which is what my numbers have now, with the embeded errors.

In the meantime, I think this map is so beautiful and compelling that I would be shocked if it were not adopted, in substantially my form.  

Stivers could very easily lose a primary in that district.  I actually think many Central Ohio Republicans in the legislature would rather try to keep Stivers and Tiberi safe from a primary challenge by a RURUAL tea-party type (while still giving them some chance of winning the general) than guarantee that the seats stay in Republican hands and risk a Congressman from farm country.  I suspect Jordan and Latta will end up with much of that rural territory.  It's a valiant effort, that much is certain, but if Republicans try to limit the Dems to three seats and that's the only effective way to handle Franklin County, than the Pubbies are going to end up creating a dummymander on their hands, imo (because I doubt they'll choose this map, even though it does its job extremely well).  

This very cycle, Arkansas Dixiecrats Democrats have decided to screw the best interests of the party and try to enact a pathetic dummymander, just to prevent the state from potentially having an African-American Congressman.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't think it'll happen, but we shall see soon enough.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't think it'll happen, but we shall see soon enough.

You predict the GOP will toss a potential Pubbie CD in excess of a 5% GOP PVI into the trash can eh, along with a Pubbie incumbent if Tiberi does not retire, eh?  Yes, indeed, we shall see!


Moving right along, are you not in any event absolutely inspired that I made OH-12 into this absolutely handsome nearly square yellow box on the map?  I just love geometry - always have. I got the top grade in my high school geometry class. It came as naturally to me as toking really.

As I've said, the map is undeniably brilliant, a work of art even.  I just predict that Republicans will try to keep Austria, Tiberi, Jordan, and Stivers extremely happy (even at the expense of Johnson, Renacci, Schmidt, and to a lesser degree Gibbs).  This will, imo, lead them to produce a dummymander (especially with regard to the Franklin County tri-chop I'm expecting).  Lastly, yes, I guess I am simultaneously awe-inspired and horrified by your 12th (which under both this and the current map happens to be my native district)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wimps!

Well I guess that settles that debate!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I have some updates about how this might be starting to shape up.  Apparently, the Republicans are planning to eliminate Sutton's district and give Kucinich a swing district that, though not necessarily out of reach for the Democrats, would be impossible for Kucinich to hold.  Columbus will likely be cracked three ways (much the same as it currently is).  Also, Jordan's seat doesn't seem to be on the chopping block.  They seem to be planning to merge two of the following freshmen's districts, Renacci, Gibbs, and Johnson, and letting them fight it out in a primary (though which two has not been decided).  Apparently, there was concern that Jordan might defeat Stivers or Boehner in a primary.  Bare in mind that these are just rumors I heard recently, however, they come from a pretty credible source.