US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Torie]

Hey, Muon2, are you going to drink the kook-aid and now put all those Dems in Columbus in one of more GOP districts, rather than just give up, and give them a CD, or, alternatively do something creative, and combine them with some Dems in Cleveland or Akron, thereby creating some hideous looking gerrymander for the ages map, or what? 

[Torie]

What is the McCain margin in CD-12?  If looks weak to me.

[Torie]

BTW I have a tough time believing that map would ever stand a VRA challenge since it is largely based on diluting the black population of Columbus as much as possible.

I don't recall now if it is legal to slice and dice the black vote, if there is not enough of it, which if put together, would make for a majority-minority "community of interest" CD.  I think there are something like 250,000 blacks in Franklin County. Right now, if I recall, there are mostly in Tiberi's CD.  That is why I wondered about the partisan lean of CD-6 on the map above, because Tiberi's district having checked it out, takes in the northeast corner of Franklin.

[Torie]

Leips has town and township returns for 2004 for many states, and that is what I used for my map of Michigan. The trick then, is to find a township map, which sometimes are hard to find. But I got lucky with Michigan. Gosh, how I live the internet. I am glad I lived long enough to enjoy it.

In any event, with these tools, map drawing is just a blast for me. I just love it, particularly if there are legal constraints. I just love trying to figure out how to circumvent them.  It is just in my nature I guess.

Of course, that won't help you for big cities. For that, absent returns, you just need to know the town. I could map LA just from my head (well, not the bit about precisely where to draw the lines to get the "right" percentages of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, particularly the former two, since what is going on on the ground is changing so rapidly as the the landscape turns "brown" from black). I mean, USC is in an Hispanic neighborhood now.  Who knew?

[Torie]

For a map to be real, one must know the Bush 2004 election returns, and do precinct by precinct analysis when one is divvying up counties, particularly the larger ones. Anything less than 54.5% Bush 2004 becomes vulnerable, and I try if possible to get to 55%, before I am satisfied. That would be a GOP PVI for the Bush 2004 numbers of +3% to +3.5%. That is what is needed for GOP incumbents to be reasonably safe if not flawed in a Dem year. And I won't draw a more heavily GOP district to save some weak incumbent who under performs, like say Bachmann, if it is going to make another GOP slated seat too vulnerable. Do you guys have different standards than that?

And this only obtains to areas north of the Mason Dixon line in general, that are not heavily Hispanic. When either of those factors obtain, it is a whole new ball game (for example, when might the Hispanics who are not voting now, start to vote?), and of course for Texas, the Bush numbers are essentially worthless, because they are inflated.

[Torie]

For a map to be real, one must know the Bush 2004 election returns, and do precinct by precinct analysis when one is divvying up counties, particularly the larger ones. Anything less than 54.5% Bush 2004 becomes vulnerable, and I try if possible to get to 55%, before I am satisfied. That would be a GOP PVI for the Bush 2004 numbers of +3% to +3.5%. That is what is needed for GOP incumbents to be reasonably safe if not flawed in a Dem year. And I won't draw a more heavily GOP district to save some weak incumbent who under performs, like say Bachmann, if it is going to make another GOP slated seat too vulnerable. Do you guys have different standards than that?

And this only obtains to areas north of the Mason Dixon line in general, that are not heavily Hispanic. When either of those factors obtain, it is a whole new ball game (for example, when might the Hispanics who are not voting now, start to vote?), and of course for Texas, the Bush numbers are essentially worthless, because they are inflated.

I have some of that voting data, and I am reworking my preelection map to see how well a 12-4 map could be constructed with new incumbents. SW OH is easy to get everyone up to 55% R without a lot of shifts. With a four-way split 53% R looks possible for the Columbus area, and I'm still looking to see if it can get higher.

NE OH does not look hopeful for such strong districts. I'm convinced that no splitting of Akron works for the GOP, and so it will have to be attached to one of the Cuyahoga districts to get it out of any intended R districts. Even so, LaTourette's district may not be better that 51% with '04 numbers. The new members in 6 (Johnson) and 18 (Gibbs) both live near the northern ends of their districts pressing more members into NE OH than before.

Johnson lives just south of Youngstown on the border of the district, and its hard to see how his home avoids being in a Youngstown-Warren district built for Ryan. That would fit with a natural inclination to link the heavily Dem areas in current CD 6 with Ryan's base. I also see that Renacci lives quite close to Sutton, which creates the possibility of putting them both in the same district with a 56% R vote in 2004. The GOP could then claim some fairness by eliminating one district from each party and setting up two general election matchups between incumbents, with Dems favored in one and the GOP favored in the other.

It should be possible per the back of the envelop analysis to reach a 55% Bush 2004 goal for 12 seats given the lack of legal restrictions that would crimp the Pubbies style. The only issue is how erose the map gets, and whether either due to that, or incumbent Pubbie issues about being discommoded and the like, the map doesn't cut it politically from a Pubbie standpoint.

The 4 most Dem existing CD's had the following Kerry margins: 63+26+17+17= 123. Ohio statewide had a 2.2% Bush 2004 margin. 2.2 x 16 = 35.2. 35.2+123 =  158.2. (158.2/12)/2 = 6.59, or 56.59% Bush 2004 per each of the 12 Pubbie slated CD's.  

The other issue lurking out there, is whether a more up to date and aggressive Dem packing of the 4 CD's can fully offset or not the need of the 4 CD's to take in a lot more folks, thereby having to add presumably more marginal political territory. If not fully offset, the 123 number will drop, thereby causing the 56.59% number to drop a bit.  But you have quite a bit of a pad over 55% I would think with which to work, even if there is some erosion.

One potential problem of course is the northeast corner district, which can only go in certain directions. It will need a careful scalpel of the Cleveland area precincts I would think to get there.

This assumes of course that I did the math right!  

Addendum: By the way, for PA we have the following Kerry margins: 75+69+40+13= 197. PA statewide had a -2.5% Bush 2004 margin. -2.5 x 18 = -45. -45+197 = 152. (152/14)/2 = 5.43, or 55.43% Bush 2004 per each of the 14 Pubbie slated CD's.  Now, with the new Pittsburgh CD that I drew, I was able to pick up 2 points, and PA-13  now only has Kerry winning with a 13% margin, and surely that can be pushed up to a 20% margin I would think, and that gets us up to 206, and -45+206 = 161, which when divided by 28 gives us 55.75% Bush. But CD1 and CD2 in PA are probably going to have lower numbers than 75 and 69, which will push the 55.75% number back down. So PA is going to be tight. The issue is whether I can just hit the 54.5% Bush 2004 mark or not for all of the Pubbie CD's in the Philly area. And I don't want to go lower than that, because the trends in the Philly area suck for the GOP. I really would like to get to 55% there.  It is not going to be easy!  

I must say that it is convenient for the Pubbies that CD-01 and CD-02 are so Dem isn't it? Absent that, it would not be possible at all obviously.

One lesson from all of this, is when the numbers are tight, you need to follow the Goldilocks rule rather rigorously. If you draw much more than say a 56% Bush CD in PA, you are digging your own grave vis a vis the leash the Dems to just 4 CD's goal. So if you find that you have drawn say a 57% or more Bush 2004 CD in Ohio, you need to try to get it a bit more Dem, or you may find that later on in your drawing, that you have hit a wall.

Oh, one other thing. For OH-01,  if the black population in Hamilton County is growing in percentage, and/or there is some evidence of latte liberals moving in, you need to be careful to append Pubbie areas that have some dynamic Pubbie growth going on (one trick although maybe not particularly relevant for population static Ohio, is to add precincts that are rather empty in population density, but slated to be where the next subdivisions are going to be built. Willie Brown in CA when he was the master drawer of CD's, once told me that that was one factor he was very careful to factor in). For OH-01 adding such areas will probably will not be that difficult, but one needs to bear the issue  in mind. These districts need to last for 10 years. And ditto for Franklin County (where I know at least the latte liberals have been pouring in, if not necessarily the blacks, but check that out too would be my suggestion).

[Torie]

The first thing I do now, is check where each Congressman lives. It turns out that Potts in PA-16 lives clear over in Eastern Chester County, even though most of his CD is in Lancaster County. What a bummer!  My PA CD map is going to look like a real mess - basically just a row of snakes in the central to eastern part of the state it looks like.

[Torie]

The first thing I do now, is check where each Congressman lives. It turns out that Potts in PA-16 lives clear over in Eastern Chester County, even though most of his CD is in Lancaster County. What a bummer!  My PA CD map is going to look like a real mess - basically just a row of snakes in the central to eastern part of the state it looks like.

wrong thread cowboy... 

Well, in my defense, the first sentence was generically germane, and the balance giving an example of having to deal with residency issues vis a vis another state, an issue that just might crop up in Ohio. Beyond where Potts lives in PA-16, Tom Marino lives right on the edge of his district in PA-10 for example. That can potentially really constrict one's drawing style. You sir, I suspect, would be a hanging judge.

[Torie]

So, with the new numbers, the Dems have the Youngstown-Akron CD, the inner city Cleveland CD, the Toledo etc CD, and a Columbus CD, is that correct?  I think it wise to cede a Columbus CD to the Dems - always have. That place is a ticking time bomb for the GOP (government workers and university denizens plus blacks is one demographic the GOP needs to just avoid having in their CD's), and demographically active. It could sink a couple of Pubbies, if they are given the wrong slice of it over time.

[Torie]

I wonder if a Dem Columbus CD, after corralling the most Dem precincts, might slip out of Franklin County, and capture some heavily Dem precincts elsewhere, the way I did for IN-07, which broke out of Indianapolis via a river and corridor of green space (so not very many Pubbies were wasted), to get down south to visit the University of Indiana.

[Torie]

I wonder if a Dem Columbus CD, after corralling the most Dem precincts, might slip out of Franklin County, and capture some heavily Dem precincts elsewhere, the way I did for IN-07, which broke out of Indianapolis via a river and corridor of green space (so not very many Pubbies were wasted), to get down south to visit the University of Indiana.

There is. Dayton. 100k blacks in 90+% precincts there. It ends up helping Mike Turner I guess, though he has not needed it.

I was thinking of the Columbus CD heading towards the Cleveland area, where there are more Dems than Pubbies, to ease the pressure on whatever GOP CD you guys are plotting to carve out there - in essence basically "stealing" a seat from the Dems. Southwest Ohio has plenty of Pubbies to contain the Dems down there.

[Torie]

What are the specifics of VRA Section 2 case law, exactly? Could Ohio, were they to draw that district, just claim it's a perfectly legal partisan gerrymander? Would it be legal if it was plurality white instead?

You could swear up and down that you only looked at voting data and not racial data when drawing that district, yeah. North Carolina did that about a decade ago with the 12th. The question is whether that claim is believable.

It is of course pointless. The only guy who needs help there is Chabot, and there are 3 Republican seats right next door that can skim 40k or so voters each.

Turner doesn't need the help either. There are precincts where McCain got 2 votes and Turner got 80.

Turner might not be around forever. What is the McCain % in your Turner CD, if I may ask?

[Torie]

Turner's is roughly 54% McCain. I might have strengthened him too much by giving him all of Warren County; perhaps I'll give some of it back to Schmidt.

Schmidt has 60% McCain in the full counties and 250k voters in Hamilton that I'll have to crunch by hand.

I would not have the Schmidt CD more than maybe 2%  more McCain than the Turner CD myself. It is a mistake IMO to prop up a weak incumbent too much (or shave too close a CD because it has a strong incumbent like Turner), because the personalities can change, and sometimes it is good to flush an embarrassment in any event, particularly if it is probable a presentable GOP challenger can take the seat back. Schmidt in any event is less of an under performer than she was. She won 59-34 in 2010, which probably runs ahead of the McCain percentages. In 2008 she won 45-37. 

[Torie]

With the neutron bomb that dropped on Cleveland causing so many folks to vanish (mostly Dems), how many seats are the Dems down to in Ohio now, if the GOP does an intelligent gerrymander? I still don't like the idea of not giving the Dems a Columbus seat, but if someone has some hard data that it remains prudent to still chop up Columbus among a bunch of Pubbie seats, taking into consideration that the number of Democrats in the Columbus area will continue to grow robustly, I would like to see it.

[Torie]

Of course you can't capture every black in a CD that does not take in the whole county!  I doubt every precinct in Cuyahoga County not in the black CD has zero blacks in it.

[Torie]

Krazen are your population numbers reflective of the population collapse. This isn't the final census data is it?  In any event, I wonder if it is feasible to dump much of the pink area into the Toledo CD.

[Torie]

Did anyone see how much Toledo could be shaved down, picking off the somewhat marginal precincts and putting them into the adjacent Pubbie CD, so that the Toledo snake can push farther east? As to going through the McCain areas, if you just include the precincts appending the lake, I doubt it will suck it much population. In fact, isn't the CD to the south so GOP, that it could even take some pretty Dem precincts, and still be reasonably safe Pubbie? If you are going to cut the Dems down to 3 CD's, each and every one of them needs to be very carefully packed, precinct by precinct, the way I did with the 3 Dem CD's in the Philly area, and even after doing that, it was a pretty close call. I just barely got across the finish line, i.e., to the point where I thought the Philly area Pubbie CD's, PA 06, 07 and 08, could be characterized as it least solidly leaning GOP.

[Torie]

Here is my attempted "knockout." About 82,000 folks (per the updated but not final population estimates) in what appears to be the most Dem part of krazen's pink zone are shoved in OH-09 (but marked in pink here, so one can see the population numbers). Other than my pink salient, I followed Krazen's lines exactly. Whether this will work as part of the larger Pubbie jihad to eviscerate Ohio Dem CD's, is a question the answer to which I don't have a clue!

If the final census figures show a further population drop for OH-09, then more of the most Dem precincts in Parma can be picked up. I suspect southern and eastern Parma are not that Dem. The precinct stats for Parma are below the maps, with the percentages being the Obama percentage of the two party vote. Unfortunately, the Cuyhoga precinct maps don't match very well the Dave Bradlee ones (they must have changed, both in shape and number), so it is guesswork, which sucks.

An alternative, in lieu of picking up Parma Heights (58.7% Dem), and the most Dem part of Parma, would be to move into Cleveland to the north of Brook Park. There are only about 12 precincts in Cleveland that are below 60% Obama, so that in fact is probably a superior strategy come to think of it.

[Torie]

This appears to be close to the maximally efficient OH-09 prong into Cuyahoga County (depicted in pink). The precinct map labels for the City of Cleveland do match the precinct returns, so I know that the western prong of Cleveland is for Pubbies, what Mordor is for Hobbits. It's Pubbie hell, and needs to be excised to the max extent possible. This is the way to do it. The Lakewood precincts alas do not match, but I did an aerial zoom, and the two precincts that I put into OH-13 look dramatically more prosperous than the balance, so I bit them off.

What remains a problem, is that southern box of the city of Cleveland north of Parma which is drawn into OH-13. Sure it's almost totally white, but as I say, only 12 precincts in Cleveland are under 60% Obama, and I suspect most of them are on the lake on the far east side, where Voinovich lives. We shall see if the population numbers allow for OH-14 to scoop them up, or most of them. If not, probably a bit more of Lakewood needs to be bit off, or the eastern edges of OH-14 further explored, or OH-09 dropping Brooklyn, and/or moving into the southern Cleveland box in lieu thereof. OH-09 is 4,700 over population, but I suspect the final census numbers will get rid of that, and then a bit. OH-11 is over by about 33,000, the way krazen drew the OH-11 map, with my changes on its west side, so the final census numbers will be most interesting.
 

[Torie]

Yes, indeed, but 42% and 43% McCain, is going to be a lot better than that southern City of Cleveland box north of Parma, or most of it. That box needs to be bounced from OH-13, or most of it.  But we also need to be sure to follow the VRA, and keep OH-11 majority VAP black, if it seems required by the VRA, and it may well be. Isn't this fun?  

You are absolutely right, to look around Toledo for precincts to pinch. Pinching precincts is job one. I just pinched Indianapolis to death in my Indiana gerry. I do notice that Berea has about 5 or 6 pinchable precincts, which will be pinched if I can find them.

84   BEREA      5   D   212   314   526   59.70%
83   BEREA      5   C   183   258   441   58.50%
74   BEREA      3   B   215   289   504   57.34%
75   BEREA      3   C   205   265   470   56.38%
68   BEREA      2   A   240   305   545   55.96%
73   BEREA      3   A   255   319   574   55.57%
76   BEREA      3   D   221   255   476   53.57%

[Torie]

Here is what I think is within a percentage point (or close to it), of the max Dem pack for OH-09. The precinct returns map for Cuyahoga County at the bottom should help illustrate the lay of the land. It turns out that all of my surmises were correct! Fancy that.

One probably could pick up another 50 basis points by shaving the link counties a bit more (I stole four [nine] precincts), but I felt guilty doing it. Lucas County (Toledo) has been picked pretty dry now.

I grabbed 5 precincts in Toledo Ward 22 (that far eastern precinct in the green CD (OH-05), nearest the Michigan border was actually carried by McCain ), and also cut out the 4 precincts in the City of Ottawa, which McCain actually carried (barely). Per Krazen's suggestion, I cut out from OH-09 the City of Maumee in Lucas County. The City of Maumee went about 57% for Obama (now added to OH-05), and has 3 or so 60% plus Obama precincts in it, but the Bradlee census tracts in Maumee don't remotely match the 2008 precincts, so it was not feasible to cull them out, and leave them in OH-09. That aside, the number of 60% plus Obama precincts not gobbled up by OH-09 within this part of the state, is probably down to about 15 or so now. (I do notice however from the Cuyahoga County returns map that there are three 60% plus Obama precincts in the northwest corner of Parma Heights that need to be added to OH-09, so that adjustment should be made, and now has been (I had to cut out five more link county precincts to do that, but that cut actually makes the map a bit prettier this time).)

The final census numbers probably will allow picking up another few 55%-60% Obama precincts in Cuyahoga County, in that zone north of Parma in Cleveland. But I think I cut out of OH-13 almost all of the plus 60% Obama precincts now in that area. I also pinched three or four precincts from OH-09 in Berea (those census tracts don't match the real precincts either, but they are close enough for government work).

I think this Dem pack of OH-09 is now sufficient, to probably make the  twin termination of Sutton and Dennis the Menace reasonably  feasible for the Pubbies, if the Pubbies are willing to draw this OH-09 monstrosity. Do they have the balls to do it? Time will tell.

Perhaps someone might wish to use my version of OH-09, and with it, see how the complete Ohio map plays out. We could make this a team effort. I would be happy to email my data file for Ohio to whomever wants it. Cheers.

[Torie]

It is a really wonderful thing that OH-11 needs further growth Why beyond the obvious? Because my OH-11 below, while already beautiful, will just get more so. Why?  Because it now both 1) maximizes the Dem pack, and 2) hits 50% black VAP (the latter by the skin of its teeth). Further growth will be to of course pick up more black Akron precincts, pushing its black VAP up to close to 52%, or even hitting it perhaps. Or, as more almost totally black precincts in Akron are picked up, in tandem some Dem precincts at OH-11's eastern edges in Cuyahoga County can be picked up, keeping its black VAP close to the 50% mark - yes over - but not by much. It depends in part I guess on what the partisan numbers for the LaTourette CD look like. It may need some more help.

The balance of NE Ohio should now draw itself. Well, not really, actually. The NE corner CD, LaTourette's (labeled OH-13 on my map), will need to snake around the southern end of the black OH-11 wall, before turning back north all the way to Lake Erie again (well almost certainly not all of the way, but even part of the way, will not look very aesthetic). It is indeed, one butt ugly CD!    Unless of course, by some miracle there are enough folks in the NE corner of Ohio north of Warren, and east of the OH-11 black wall, for it to fit in there. Or maybe with more people, the black wall can be shoved a bit farther west, since it would not need the absolutely most efficient way to get down to black Akron.

The Youngstown CD then takes in whatever remaining precincts there are within reach that are the most Dem.

Make sense?

[Torie]

One other thought occurs to my lawyer mind in pondering all of this, that touches on your point Krazen, and is yet another reason why OH-11 needing 40,000 more people or whatever is probably the best evidence there is yet that God is a Pubbie. Remember that Mordor zone in west Cleveland that I said had to go from a Pubbie CD? That area has a fairly substantial minority of blacks. To the extent OH-11 can hit 50% black VAP by absorbing Mordor, then the VRA is going to require that, and you can see how that would complicate our little scheme here. Suddenly on OH-11's now retreating east side, there is all of this annoying territory some other CD has to pick up. That is not a good thing.

But if OH-11 needs 40,000 more folks, then picking up Mordor is just not going to work. It may not work anyway, but it is very, very close call - too close for comfort. Now it won't be so close, which means that OH-11 has to go down to Akron to be 50% black VAP, and that means that we can keep/restore/achieve more efficaciously partisan order on OH-11's eastern flank. We don't have to worry that a court will cancel the OH-11 trip to Akron, and issue it a ticket to Mordor instead. Putting to bed that worry can only make the Pubbie gerrymandering jihadists smile from ear to ear.

Sure it will be ugly, but then this map will make ugly into an art form, competing with if not surpassing my PA masterpiece. And the Pubbies are just not going to litigate whether the VRA requires an OH-11 visit to Akron; they will just do it. You can write that down. Pubbies don't like to litigate whether or not they are screwing blacks. They are there to help, not hurt, which it comes to the VRA.

[Torie]

It does look Krazen if I follow your map (don't you like to make beautiful colors they way I do? That is half the fun!), that there is room to fit LaTourette into his NE corner without a snake around OH-11's Akron extension doesn't it (with perhaps only minor modifications to my black wall perhaps, or maybe there is something north of Warren that can be picked up)?   If so, I wonder what its partisan numbers are. The CD worries me a bit, which is why I probably will use some of OH-11's population growth, to eat away at some of its Dem precincts on LaTourette's western flank. But then that squeezes him some more, but he may need some more elbow on the other side of the wall to Pubbie him up if his current line with OH-11 does not meet partisan gerrymandering goals, and around and around we go.

[Torie]

Yes, but OH-11 won't be 50% black VAP, and it has to be. The Pubbies would be fools not to. The LaTourette CD just wraps around the southern edges of the OH-11 prong to Akron, and then gets out of the way on the other side. The Youngstown CD will still get its slug of the Akron action.

I didn't think of a CD from the west coming to grab the Pubbie zone in Cuyahoga. But then, I am just not that familiar with the Ohio map in the northwest and Columbus area - yet.

Your OH-09 Dem pack is less efficient. You lost maybe as much as 3 points, certainly two. Those lost points will have to be picked up by a Pubbie CD. That's pretty expansive, when we are already stretching things here.

Regarding the Columbus split (which yes will probably happen even if it may lie on the hog side of pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered side of the greed line, because a Pubbie butt is at stake), to minimize the odds that the Columbus Dem demographic bomb goes off, we will need to know what the areas of black, Hispanic and government and educational business expansion will be, and to where the socons, particularly those who know where their next pay check is coming from, and don't have to sweat too much about making ends meet for basic needs, are fleeing to get away from a town they used to like but now it just has too much a libertine socialistic moral relativism about it, along with an "excessive" amount of the spectrum of the rainbow in it. The Dem expansion areas need to be chopped up, as part of the process of chopping up the areas that are currently Dem, and the Pubbie expansion areas used for offset against the Dem expansion areas in the right mix. Absent that, this Columbus split thing is a disaster waiting to happen.

So the trick is to find how the same precincts have trended over the last decade, where the demographic changes have been, and what just what precincts seem ripe within the next decade  to "turn." So we need income data, and both income and demographic change data, from 2000 to now for the Columbus metro region. It would be nice to look at the 2000 and 2010 census data for each neighborhood, to get a sense of where the action is, and where things have been relatively quiet due to some barrier between one neighborhood and another that acts as a dam, be it a river, a municipal boundary, or a substantial change in neighborhood SES, or some ethnic barrier and river (Jewish areas tend to be friendly to the infusion of middle class blacks for example).