US House Redistricting: Ohio

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In Ohio it appears increasingly likely that Republicans will once again dominate the redistricting process.  The legislature draws congressional boundaries and unless Democrats pull off a miracle and maintain control of the General Assembly, the GOP will control both chambers.

State legislative districts are drawn by the 5 member apportionment board consisting of the governor, secretary of state, auditor, and two members appointed jointly by the minority and majority leaders of the two houses of the legislature.  Strickland is increasingly looking like he'll be ousted and with open seats for both the auditor and secretary of state the GOP has the advantage.  The bright spot for Ohio voters is that the GOP candidate for SoS has been a champion of fair redistricting reform in the legislature and has promised to continue pursuing that goal if he is elected.

With Ohio poised to lose two seats in the House and many Democrats in danger this year it will be interesting to see if the GOP is able to protect all of their potential newly elected representatives in 2012.

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If Republicans pick up more than three seats in Ohio, its going to be pretty much impossible not to see one Republican seat eliminated.  

Not Necessarily.  The GOP can Shut the Dems out of Southern and Central Ohio pretty well (better than the current map actually, as they can expand the 1st and 15th further into the Cincinnati and Columbus Suburbs), and they can limit the Democrats to 5 in Northern Ohio if they draw the lines right.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-6 or 11-5 GOP map in 2012.

That could well open up OH-07 to a Democratic pickup if you take too many suburbs out of that district.  

The other problem the GOP has is OH-14 which will almost certainly be forced to take on a good chunk of Democratic leaning territory.  I'm betting that Latourette and Ryan are probably going to be pitted against each other.

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13 and 2 also could well go Democratic with such large portions of Cincinatti and Cuyahoga.

A Generic R could easily hold 2, given that Eastern Hamilton County is more Conservative than the rest.  The Current one is R + 13, and the one drawn here is not much different.

Actually both CD 1 and 2 as I drew them would have voted McCain in 2008. CD 1 is closest at 51.5-48.5, and CD 2 would have been 54-46. In an even statewide year like 2004 they both would be about 56 or 57% R.

What's your approximation for CD-6 & CD-7.  They both seem to have the largest chunks of Franklin county.

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The current map is already an obscene Republican gerrymander - if they tried to make it any more Republican, they would either run afoul of the VRA or set themselves up for a big reversal if the natinonal environment changed again - which was what happened in 2008.

The GOP challenge in OH is how to deal with the loss of two seats on the current map. Realistically they may have to reduce both one D and one R seat, but the remaining seats can be just as strongly drawn R as they were 10 years ago.

I think its going to be really difficult for the GOP to create a 12R-4D map that would hold for more than one or two elections.  Although the map you've put forth certainly gives the Republicans a huge advantage I think its stretching them a bit too thin in some places.  In a bad GOP year like 2006 or 2008 I could definitely see things ending up as at least 8R-8D or even 7R-9D depending on candidate quality and the number of open seats.  Although it might sting to do it, I think the Republicans would be much better served over the course of 2012-2020 to draw a safe 11-5 map and eliminate two of their incoming freshmen.

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I made this plan with three guidelines;

1. If possible, maintain county lines
2. Population deviation between -75 and +75
3. Try where possible to maintain current 'flavour' of existing districts.

Number two was the most important, and all districts except District 2 meet this criteria.







District 11 is just a simple majority African-American.

Obviously this plan is far from perfect, but it's my starting point, and I'll aim to refine from here. I really dislike Mansfield, and I'm not sure about the Springfield - Columbus district.

Album link in case pics don't load: http://img211.imageshack.us/g/ohiototal.jpg/

This is not a critique since your goal doesn't seem to be party/incumbent favoritism but I don't think Tiberi would like your 12th district very much.  Taking in that much of Franklin County might actually knock him in out in 2012.  The 15th looks like it would probably remain very competitive but I'm not sure I like the Columbus-Springfield connection.  Also, your new 5th is probably a lot more Democratic leaning than the current and could probably be considered competitive in a 2006/2008 type of year.  All the Democrats look safe or comfortable enough to get re-elected.

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Given the maps I've seen so far I think the Republicans would be foolish to try a 13-3 map.  Its too risky IMO.  I think they could be fairly safe with a 12-4 map that eliminates Kucinich and I think they could build 11 completely safe seats if they did a Columbus Dem pack.

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Jim Jordan is making redistricting easy for the Ohio GOP.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2011/07/28/payback-coming.html

U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan's open defiance of Speaker John Boehner's efforts to solve the debt-ceiling crisis could cost the Urbana Republican his safe seat in next year's election.

Two Republican sources deeply involved in configuring new Ohio congressional districts confirmed to The Dispatch today that Jordan's disloyalty to Boehner has put him in jeopardy of being zeroed out of a district.

If they could find a way to lump Jordan and Schmidt together into a district that would be a fun one to watch.

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Here's my attempt:

OH-01 (blue) - 51.4 Obama, 47.5 McCain
OH-02 (green) - 55.4 McCain, 43.0 Obama
OH-03 (purple) - 50.6 McCain, 48.0 Obama
OH-04 (red, formerly OH-18) - 52.0 McCain, 45.7 Obama
OH-05 (yellow) - 56.1 McCain, 41.9 Obama
OH-06 (teal) - 52.3 McCain, 45.4 Obama
OH-07 (grey) - 51.7 McCain, 46.7 Obama
OH-08 (light purple) - 61.9 McCain, 36.4 Obama
OH-09 (sky blue) - 61.2 Obama, 37.1 McCain
OH-10 (magenta) - 61.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain
OH-11 (light green) - 81.8 Obama, 17.4 McCain, 50.5% black VAP
OH-12 (light purple Columbus) - 51.1 Obama, 47.6 McCain
OH-13 (pink, formerly OH-17) - 61.1 Obama, 37.0 McCain
OH-14 (brown) - 49.9 McCain, 48.6 Obama
OH-15 (orange) - 51.2 Obama, 47.1 McCain
OH-16 (khaki) - 51.3 McCain, 47.0 Obama

Jordan is dumped in with Boehner, Sutton is either in with Fudge or LaTourette (Copley is split between the two districts). It would probably be better for Republicans to get rid of Sutton than Kucinich, since Dennis is a gadly with no chance of ever running for statewide office. Otherwise, most Reps have to sacrifice a bit to spread out the danger.

This map is far to marginal for the GOP.  Its almost what I would expect out of a commission whose goal was to create the most sprawling competitive districts possible.  The only safe seats for Republicans would be 2, 5, and 8.  All the recently ousted Dems could easily retake their seats in 1, 4(18), 6, 15, and 16.  Also the map puts the previously safe 7 at higher risk and does little to shore up 3 and 12 which are being held only because of the strength of the incumbents.  (14 is a lost cause for Republicans once Latourette is gone)  Then of course the current Dem incumbents have safe seats in 9, 10, 11, and 13.  The only thing this map does to benefit the GOP is eliminate Sutton's district.

Republicans really just need to bit the bullet and trade a Cleveland Dem seat for a Columbus Dem pack.  It would make the rest of the seats so much easier to hold IMO.  Otherwise they are risking a repeat of the '06 and '08 disasters.  Eliminate Jordan and Schmidt and force Kucinich to move out west.

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The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that there may be an Austria v Turner GOP primary in 2012.  That leads me to believe they are looking to eliminate OH-7.  Personally I'd rather see Schmidt forced into a primary but this raises my hopes slightly that there will only be 2 Franklin County districts at the most.  I'm still not too optimistic though.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/08/23/austria-turner-might-be-gop-primary-rivals.html

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I don't see how that would work at all. What a curve ball!  Be patient, as Sam Spade would say. 

I'm not sure what the GOP is thinking here either.  I thought for sure they'd either force a couple of the freshmen into a primary or go after Jordan or Schmidt.  Eliminating 7 instead of 6 or 18 seems like a much riskier move. 

The only thing I can guess is that they are going to maintain the 3 way Columbus split but swing Stivers to the South and give Union County plus a portion of Franklin County to Jordan.  That might put Jordan in danger of facing a moderate Republican challenger from Columbus.

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Oh, it is a game. What was the NAACP signing off at 48% about? I saw an article about you Muon2 on this contest stuff.  Are you going to post it? You also bootstrapped off it I see. For some reason, you don't like the new Illinois lines much.

There were several articles about muon's win in the Columbus Dispatch.  I really liked his plans for the Ohio legislature. 

I'm not sure I like his congressional plan above as well though.  The competition software rates 4 of his districts with a GOP index of over 61% while there is only one district with a Democratic index that is over 54%.  That's great for competitiveness but I feel like the Democrats are sacrificing more for that cause than Republicans under that particular map.  I think you need to boost the Dem rating of at least one more seat to make it fair.

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Wow.

http://blogs.dixcdn.com/capitalblog/

I can't express in words how utterly disgusted I am by this map.

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That's where he lives dude - right at the base of that spike to the south - where "the banks" are. 

He lives in just a charming little house actually. I want it!  It is my kind of neighborhood - it's old just like me! 

Hmm, I thought he lives in Upper Arlington.

Nope, I pulled his deed when I did my Columbus chop. Lawyers can do that. We're special.

Several local news articles have reported that he moved to Upper Arlington recently.  For good measure, I checked his wikipedia page and it lists his residence as UA as well.

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http://www.tribtoday.com/page/content.detail/id/561887/Dems-come-up-with-districts.html

The GOP mess has passed both houses of the legislature and awaits only a signature from the governor.  Unfortunately muon's map appears to be a mostly wasted effort.

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Do court drawn maps typically favor incumbent protection over logical districts?  I feel like the above map still has some less than ideal districts in it that were drawn for the convenience of (mostly Republican) incumbents.  While the above map is certainly improved from the one that was enacted and even the current districts, I'm sure a judge drawn map would be even better than this.

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Here's a map I did.





Obama/Mcain

OH-1(Chabot): 54.8/44.2
OH-2 (Schmidt): 38.8/59.2
OH-3 (Turner/Austria): 48.8/49.7
OH-4 (Jordan): 37.5/60.7
OH-5 (Latta): 45.4/52.7
OH-6 (Johnson): 47.3/50.5
OH-7 (Gibbs): 42.3/55.6
OH-8 (Boehner): 35.7/63.1
OH-9 (Kaptur): 58.0/40.3
OH-10 (Kucinich): 55.3/43.3
OH-11 (Fudge): 82.4/16.8 47.2 BVAP
OH-12 (Tiberi): 50.5/48.1
OH-13 (Sutton): 56.2/42.4
OH-14 (LaTourette): 52.6/45.5
OH-15 (Stivers) : 60.4/38.0
OH-16 (Renacci/Ryan): 54.6/43.4

2012 House ratings (IMO)
Safe GOP: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8
Lean GOP: 3, 12, 14
Tossup: 1, 6
Lean Dem: 16
Safe Dem: 9, 10, 11, 13, 15

Some of the incumbents don't actually live in the districts I placed them in but they are all very close and could easily move into their new districts without leaving their home counties.  The only exception is Tim Ryan who would be very inconvenienced by this map.  I figured his best bet would be to take on the freshmen Renacci in the slightly more Democratic district even though he actually lives in LaTourette's new district.

The black seat is probably too weak but I'm sure some more tinkering could get it up to 48% VAP which is the threshold the NAACP set for the redistricting competition.

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Apparently Republicans are proposing to pick off Democratic votes by stretching OH-3 from Columbus to Dayton, making it 42% black and possibly violating court precedents while wrecking one of the few areas of the map that didn't look like Maryland.

Was that the GOP is attempting to pick off Black Democrat legislators?

I think the accurate statement is that GOP legislators had discussions with the Ohio Black Legislative Caucus about the map. If a compromise would be reached that garnered the votes of both groups, then that total would be large enough to prevent a referendum. Recent reports have the OBLC staying with the Dems, but discussions continue.

I've read similar reports in the Columbus Dispatch.  The current public position of the OLBC seems to be that they would like to get a plan that all Democrats would be satisfied with and would also maximize the opportunity for Ohio to elect a second black representative.

Without drawing these to see how it would work, here's what I view as likely in a compromise plan: Three districts will be drawn entirely within the three largest counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton.  Summit, Montgomery, and Lucas counties will be made almost if not entirely whole.  (At the least there would be no three way splits of those counties and no splits of their most populous cities.)  The Columbus area will still hold major influence over at least 3 districts but the proposed OH-15 will be made less insane.  The old OH-10 and OH-7 are the eliminated districts.  The OH-6 Ohio River district will mostly remain intact.  In the end, Democrats will hold the advantage in at least 6 districts.

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Democrats are standing solid and united like a stone wall.

http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2011/10/22/2-Ohio-primary-dates-OK-d-district-maps-still-disputed.html

I think this reaffirms that a map similar to muon's above is what the Democrats are going to demand.  They aren't going to accept any of the urban core cracking that Republicans are trying to pull off.

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I'm generally against the Austria protection maps just because I don't like how they all link South Columbus with the Dayton suburbs.  I'd much rather see his district dismantled completely and have the southern Columbus metro counties become part of an appalachain district.

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So does the map stand or what?

It's still undecided.  Democrats are still actively gathering signatures for a voter referendum on the map.  If they are successful in placing it on the 2012 ballot then there will likely be a court drawn map for the 2012 election.

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I'm not sure how likely this is (or if it even really exists) but I've seen it reported several times that the Democrats are trying to float a map that creates 6 solid R, 4 solid D, and 6 competitive/R-lean seats.  I've never seen an actual map or heard any details beyond that but I assume that something akin to this would be the starting point for any legitimate negotiations on a compromise map.  I think it's going to take a minimum of 7-8 seats that Democrats view as potentially winnable in order to pass any kind of compromise map.

Given their track record of noncooperation I have very little faith that a compromise map will emerge.  Assuming the Democrats get the map on the ballot I have a lot of faith that it will go down.  My hope is that some sort of fair redistricting amendment gets passed at the same time and the new legislature is forced to draw a new map under those rules.

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Here’s my attempt at a 5-5-6 Ohio. I would classify this as a moderate Democratic gerrymander.
My intent
Democratic: 7,9,11,13,16
Republican: 2,4,8,12,15
“Swingy”: 1,3,5,6,10,14

Notice how many of the “swing” districts are really Republican seats under most circumstances and how flaky 9, 13, and 16 are for the Democrats. This would be an epic Dummymander if they tried to draw it, yet without cutting up OH-11 or making it look hideous, they can’t do much better. The Republican would be favored in every swing district except maybe District 1. Even with Lorain and Elyria gerrymandered into District 5, Latta will likely still win. Once Kaptur retired, OH-9 could be won by a Republican. You can’t do much better than this for the Democrats.

1 Cincinnati D+2
2 Ohio river near Cincinnati R+17
3 Dayton R+1
4 West-Central R+19
5 North-Central R+2
6 Ohio River R+4
7 Columbus D+16
8 Cincinnati Suburbs R+18
9 Toledo D+4
10 Cleveland West EVEN
11 Cleveland East D+27
12 Columbus Northern Suburbs R+10
13 Akron/Medina D+1
14 Lake/Geauga R+3
15 Columbus Southern Suburbs R+11
16 Youngstown/Canton D+6

Although the Democrats might try to go for 5-5-6 if they were in complete control I don't think that's their aim in this situation.  I'm pretty sure they're going to for 4-6-6 which is much easier to do.  That allows you to draw 4 solidly Democratic seats based in Toledo/Lake Erie, Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown.  Then you have 6 lean Republican seats that Democrats could realistically win: Cincinnati, Dayton, the northeast corner, the Ohio River, and two Columbus districts.  That leaves 6 solid Republican districts: 2 in western Ohio, 2 Cincy suburban districts, a conservative Cleveland outskirts district and a conservative southeastern district.  That would give Democrats the opportunity to win up to 10 districts and Republicans up to 12.  I don't think there is any realistic path for the Democrats to achieve a 5-5-6 map.  They might even willing to settle with a 4-8-2 map as long as the 2 competitive seats were almost evenly split.

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Well I suppose this map is marginally better than the original but it's still pretty bad.  Hopefully the task force to study redistricting reform that got created along with the map does something positive but I'm not hopeful.

Also I'm mad because I got moved from OH-3 to OH-15.  I think the thing that makes me maddest about it is that I'd rather not be lumped in with the hicks-who-hate-school-levies in southwest Franklin County.  Those idiots have really screwed up the school district down there.

It will be interesting to see where the Democratic candidates in this district hail from; Athens vs. Columbus being the obvious factions.