US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Mr.Phips]

In Ohio it appears increasingly likely that Republicans will once again dominate the redistricting process.  The legislature draws congressional boundaries and unless Democrats pull off a miracle and maintain control of the General Assembly, the GOP will control both chambers.

State legislative districts are drawn by the 5 member apportionment board consisting of the governor, secretary of state, auditor, and two members appointed jointly by the minority and majority leaders of the two houses of the legislature.  Strickland is increasingly looking like he'll be ousted and with open seats for both the auditor and secretary of state the GOP has the advantage.  The bright spot for Ohio voters is that the GOP candidate for SoS has been a champion of fair redistricting reform in the legislature and has promised to continue pursuing that goal if he is elected.

With Ohio poised to lose two seats in the House and many Democrats in danger this year it will be interesting to see if the GOP is able to protect all of their potential newly elected representatives in 2012.

If Republicans pick up more than three seats in Ohio, its going to be pretty much impossible not to see one Republican seat eliminated.  

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans pick up more than three seats in Ohio, its going to be pretty much impossible not to see one Republican seat eliminated.  

Not Necessarily.  The GOP can Shut the Dems out of Southern and Central Ohio pretty well (better than the current map actually, as they can expand the 1st and 15th further into the Cincinnati and Columbus Suburbs), and they can limit the Democrats to 5 in Northern Ohio if they draw the lines right.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-6 or 11-5 GOP map in 2012.

That could well open up OH-07 to a Democratic pickup if you take too many suburbs out of that district.  

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans pick up more than three seats in Ohio, its going to be pretty much impossible not to see one Republican seat eliminated.  

Not Necessarily.  The GOP can Shut the Dems out of Southern and Central Ohio pretty well (better than the current map actually, as they can expand the 1st and 15th further into the Cincinnati and Columbus Suburbs), and they can limit the Democrats to 5 in Northern Ohio if they draw the lines right.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-6 or 11-5 GOP map in 2012.

That could well open up OH-07 to a Democratic pickup if you take too many suburbs out of that district.  

The other problem the GOP has is OH-14 which will almost certainly be forced to take on a good chunk of Democratic leaning territory.  I'm betting that Latourette and Ryan are probably going to be pitted against each other.

OH-7 moves into the Conservative parts of the Current OH-18, which helps.

Also, I gave OH-14 parts of OH-10 actually, specifically the Southern Cleveland Suburbs that I think are close to even (Given how the Eastern Suburbs vote), and LaTourette is a good enough incumbent to win despite it.

If you take the conservative parts of OH-18 away, you will just make Zach Space much safer or open the district up to a Democratic takeover in a bad year if he loses in 2010.  Most of that district is traditionally Democratic.

What happens to LaTourrette in a bad year in a district more Democratic?  Democrats held that seat(or  one in the same general area) for years before LaTourrette won it

[Mr.Phips]

If I assume GOP control, then this was my attempt to maximize their result. I kept counties as intact as possible and kept districts defensibly compact. The VRA district links Akron to Cleveland along the Cuyahoga Valley NP. Based on the nearly even presidential results of 2004 to judge the districts this would be 12-4 in favor of the GOP.

I have a hard time seeing your 16th not going Democratic.  

[Mr.Phips]

If I assume GOP control, then this was my attempt to maximize their result. I kept counties as intact as possible and kept districts defensibly compact. The VRA district links Akron to Cleveland along the Cuyahoga Valley NP. Based on the nearly even presidential results of 2004 to judge the districts this would be 12-4 in favor of the GOP.

I have a hard time seeing your 16th not going Democratic.  

I think that's intended to be one of the four (the other three being the 9th, 10th, and 11th.

13 and 2 also could well go Democratic with such large portions of Cincinatti and Cuyahoga.

[Mr.Phips]

13 and 2 also could well go Democratic with such large portions of Cincinatti and Cuyahoga.

A Generic R could easily hold 2, given that Eastern Hamilton County is more Conservative than the rest.  The Current one is R + 13, and the one drawn here is not much different.

Actually both CD 1 and 2 as I drew them would have voted McCain in 2008. CD 1 is closest at 51.5-48.5, and CD 2 would have been 54-46. In an even statewide year like 2004 they both would be about 56 or 57% R.

What's your approximation for CD-6 & CD-7.  They both seem to have the largest chunks of Franklin county.

They are fairly close and probably would have been for Obama by 51-49 or so, but would be R in most years. With precise precinct data I could adjust that by shifting Champaign (and maybe Logan) to 7 and bringing 4 deeper into Columbus. CD 8 could move into Springfield if needed and give up some R areas to CD 6.

Youve drawn a map where Democrats could win OH-01, OH-06, OH-07, OH-09, OH-10, OH-14, OH-13, OH-16, and probably OH-02 if Schmidt is still around in a good Dem year.  Republicans are going to have to concede a seat to Democrats in Columbus to keep the surrounding districts at least 54%-55% Republican.  

[Mr.Phips]

13 and 2 also could well go Democratic with such large portions of Cincinatti and Cuyahoga.

A Generic R could easily hold 2, given that Eastern Hamilton County is more Conservative than the rest.  The Current one is R + 13, and the one drawn here is not much different.

Actually both CD 1 and 2 as I drew them would have voted McCain in 2008. CD 1 is closest at 51.5-48.5, and CD 2 would have been 54-46. In an even statewide year like 2004 they both would be about 56 or 57% R.

What's your approximation for CD-6 & CD-7.  They both seem to have the largest chunks of Franklin county.

They are fairly close and probably would have been for Obama by 51-49 or so, but would be R in most years. With precise precinct data I could adjust that by shifting Champaign (and maybe Logan) to 7 and bringing 4 deeper into Columbus. CD 8 could move into Springfield if needed and give up some R areas to CD 6.

Youve drawn a map where Democrats could win OH-01, OH-06, OH-07, OH-09, OH-10, OH-14, OH-13, OH-16, and probably OH-02 if Schmidt is still around in a good Dem year.  Republicans are going to have to concede a seat to Democrats in Columbus to keep the surrounding districts at least 54%-55% Republican.  

CD 9, 10 and 16 are strongly D and with CD 11 make up the 4 certain D seats in this map. As I noted, CD 1 and 2 would have voted for McCain, so it would take an even larger Dem wave than 2008 to topple the seats. I agree that as drawn CD 6 and 7 are vulnerable, but both are close with 2008 data. I'll post an update that can keep them R in that year.

2008 wasnt really a wave and 2006 wasnt that big.  We still havent seen a Dem +50 wave since 1974.  

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats really need to sweep the statewide offices in 2018, which would lead to favorable legislative legislative district lines through the reapportionment commission, giving them likely control of the state House and maybe even the state Senate after 2022.