US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Dgov]

If Republicans pick up more than three seats in Ohio, its going to be pretty much impossible not to see one Republican seat eliminated.  

Not Necessarily.  The GOP can Shut the Dems out of Southern and Central Ohio pretty well (better than the current map actually, as they can expand the 1st and 15th further into the Cincinnati and Columbus Suburbs), and they can limit the Democrats to 5 in Northern Ohio if they draw the lines right.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-6 or 11-5 GOP map in 2012.

[Dgov]

If Republicans pick up more than three seats in Ohio, its going to be pretty much impossible not to see one Republican seat eliminated.  

Not Necessarily.  The GOP can Shut the Dems out of Southern and Central Ohio pretty well (better than the current map actually, as they can expand the 1st and 15th further into the Cincinnati and Columbus Suburbs), and they can limit the Democrats to 5 in Northern Ohio if they draw the lines right.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10-6 or 11-5 GOP map in 2012.

That could well open up OH-07 to a Democratic pickup if you take too many suburbs out of that district.  

The other problem the GOP has is OH-14 which will almost certainly be forced to take on a good chunk of Democratic leaning territory.  I'm betting that Latourette and Ryan are probably going to be pitted against each other.

OH-7 moves into the Conservative parts of the Current OH-18, which helps.

Also, I gave OH-14 parts of OH-10 actually, specifically the Southern Cleveland Suburbs that I think are close to even (Given how the Eastern Suburbs vote), and LaTourette is a good enough incumbent to win despite it.

[Dgov]

13 and 2 also could well go Democratic with such large portions of Cincinatti and Cuyahoga.

A Generic R could easily hold 2, given that Eastern Hamilton County is more Conservative than the rest.  The Current one is R + 13, and the one drawn here is not much different.

13 is hard, because Wayne, Medina, Ashland, and Holmes Counties are all strongly Republican and they comprise like 2/3rds of this district's pop.  South Cuyahoga is also much more competitive than Cleveland proper, and it has a moderately Democratic portion of Summit county.  It's far from a Safe R, but shouldn't be too hard of a Republican hold.

Though for the original map, I would suggest moving the 5th district closer in to Toledo, Pushing the 9th Eastward into the 10th, and then moving the 10th into the Cuyahoga portion of the 13th, and then the 13th into the 5th.  That 5th is pretty heavily Conservative, and so some Republican voters can be spared for the 13th indirectly.

[Dgov]

You can't append parts of OH-10 to OH-11, since the former is overwhelmingly white and the latter needs to be majority-black, or at least as close to it as possible.

Not really--The part of Cleveland in the district is not all that white (72%, though there are more Hispanics than Blacks), and it contains basically all the blacks in Cuyahoga county that aren't already in the 11th.  Its the least-white place nearby.

[Dgov]

How Necessary is a Columbus-Based Democratic District?  I mean, whats the smallest number of Democrats you would have to take out of the Columbus area in order to make the rest safe GOP?

I'm asking that because you might want to make a district that goes from Columbus to somewhere else in order to relieve some pressure where you would really need it (the area is currently represented entirely by Republicans, so its not like its

Also, has anyone considered just giving up on a Cleveland-based VRA black district and redrawing one in the South stretching from Cincinnati to Columbus?  I think you can get one that's about 55% Black and that takes in enough of the Columbus pop to keep the rest of the area GOP.  Sure it would be ugly, but it basically shuts the Democrats out of the rest of Southern and Central Ohio for at least the next 10 years.

[Dgov]

Mirror, mirror, on the wall, which CD shall it be?

Have you considered giving it to Steve Latourette via the lake Erie Precinct?  He's probably the best Republican to take in more Cleveland suburbs, and it'll probably strengthen his district and free up the Summit-county portion of his district.