CA-20/SurveyUSA: Rep. Costa (D) in a tough fight for re-election

[Tender Branson]

Depending on how many Latinos turn out in the district:

48% - Jim Costa (D)
46% - Andy Vidak (R)

Here are several ways to look at the contest.

* If Hispanics make up 30% of voters on Election Day, Costa and Vidak finish effectively even, Costa 48%, Vidak 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. At this hour, Republicans are, subject to change as the campaign unfolds, within reach of a take-way. If Hispanic turnout is 30% or less on election day, other turnout issues, such as the number of males vs females, could potentially come into play and help decide the contest.

* If Hispanics make up 35% of voters on Election Day, Costa is better positioned to hold the seat for the Democrats: he would lead today by approximately 7 points, 50% to 43% in a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

* If Hispanics make up 40% of voters on Election Day, Costa today would lead by approximately 11 points, 52% to 41%, according to a hypothetical analysis conducted by SurveyUSA.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0e505c16-bbb1-4aaa-aca0-db6c4cfce2ca

[Sam Spade]

Ya, Cook moved this seat up a couple of weeks ago and I moved it from Watch List to Likely D because there are problems.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I'm not saying this poll isn't correct, but SUSA has had some weird results for house races lately.

[Dgov]

I'm not saying this poll isn't correct, but SUSA has had some weird results for house races lately.

Yeah, especially since the Democrat wins Hispanics with a larger margin than Blacks, which is unusual.  Especially that the neighboring 19th District poll has the two candidates roughly tied with Hispanics.

Still, if this poll is anything close to the reality of the race, Democrats are in big trouble.  This is a 63% Hispanic district that voted almost 60% for Obama in 2008, and Costa is a decent incumbent (though the Central valley water issues might be a factor here)

[Torie]

That sounds like approximately the right formula (with again the big erosion in the Dem share of the Asian vote).

The swing against the Dems does seem to be about 10% in CA, so that means the tossup areas are where Obama got about 60% of the vote.  Where Obama broke even, such as where I am, the Dems will get at or below 40%.

[Invisible Obama]

The numbers of Hispanics there might not give an accurate picture of exactly how Hispanic the electorate, since there are quite few undocumented immigrants and otherwise unregistered Hispanic voters, so I would say the electorate might actually be a little less Hispanic. Costa won this district in 2004 with 53%, so it is a bit marginal, but the Democratic margins in Fresno and Bakersfield give Democrats the edge. The Republican numbers are in Kings County.

[Dgov]

Well, it's not like a Republican could hold this district in 2012 anyway, given that it's a VRA Hispanic-majority District, and therefore must elect whoever Hispanics vote for.

[Rowan]

The numbers of Hispanics there might not give an accurate picture of exactly how Hispanic the electorate, since there are quite few undocumented immigrants and otherwise unregistered Hispanic voters, so I would say the electorate might actually be a little less Hispanic. Costa won this district in 2004 with 53%, so it is a bit marginal, but the Democratic margins in Fresno and Bakersfield give Democrats the edge. The Republican numbers are in Kings County.

I wonder who Kyle Mercado of Bakersfield, California will vote for.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The numbers of Hispanics there might not give an accurate picture of exactly how Hispanic the electorate, since there are quite few undocumented immigrants and otherwise unregistered Hispanic voters, so I would say the electorate might actually be a little less Hispanic. Costa won this district in 2004 with 53%, so it is a bit marginal, but the Democratic margins in Fresno and Bakersfield give Democrats the edge. The Republican numbers are in Kings County.

I wonder who Kyle Mercado of Bakersfield, California will vote for.

Probably the Republican. He has been pushing these districts as competative going back a year.

[Vasall des Midas]

Unsurprising, actually. Bound to be turnout-impacted. Wasn't this the one seat not made safer but rather a good bit less so in the 2000 redistricting, or was that its twin CA-18? (Either way, it was the one whose then incumbent was under a cloud for possibly having murdered his intern/lover.)

[Sam Spade]

Unsurprising, actually. Bound to be turnout-impacted. Wasn't this the one seat not made safer but rather a good bit less so in the 2000 redistricting, or was that its twin CA-18? (Either way, it was the one whose then incumbent was under a cloud for possibly having murdered his intern/lover.)

Pretty sure that's Mendoza not this one.

[Torie]

Unsurprising, actually. Bound to be turnout-impacted. Wasn't this the one seat not made safer but rather a good bit less so in the 2000 redistricting, or was that its twin CA-18? (Either way, it was the one whose then incumbent was under a cloud for possibly having murdered his intern/lover.)

Pretty sure that's Mendoza not this one.

The Condit district was made safer for a more liberal Dem by dumping Stockton into it via a snake jutting north. I get confused which is the former Condit district.

[Sibboleth]

This is the Dooley district, as was.

[Torie]

This is the Dooley district, as was.

Ah. Tons of Hispanics, few of whom are interested in politics, and quite conservative really in many ways. Hispanics do tend to pick up the local political culture a bit. They do not think that whatever the local gringos think is automatically bad.