CA-20/SurveyUSA: Rep. Costa (D) in a tough fight for re-election

[Torie]

That sounds like approximately the right formula (with again the big erosion in the Dem share of the Asian vote).

The swing against the Dems does seem to be about 10% in CA, so that means the tossup areas are where Obama got about 60% of the vote.  Where Obama broke even, such as where I am, the Dems will get at or below 40%.

[Torie]

Unsurprising, actually. Bound to be turnout-impacted. Wasn't this the one seat not made safer but rather a good bit less so in the 2000 redistricting, or was that its twin CA-18? (Either way, it was the one whose then incumbent was under a cloud for possibly having murdered his intern/lover.)

Pretty sure that's Mendoza not this one.

The Condit district was made safer for a more liberal Dem by dumping Stockton into it via a snake jutting north. I get confused which is the former Condit district.

[Torie]

This is the Dooley district, as was.

Ah. Tons of Hispanics, few of whom are interested in politics, and quite conservative really in many ways. Hispanics do tend to pick up the local political culture a bit. They do not think that whatever the local gringos think is automatically bad.