DE: Public Policy Polling: Coons with Solid Lead over O'Donnell in Delaware

[SPC]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

[Smash255]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

[King]

Chris Coons is a lucky bastard.  He just got himself a meal-ticket to DC for the next 20 years.

In these rocky Teabagger times, a sudden United States Senator is born every minute.

[You kip if you want to...]

Chris Coons is a lucky bastard.  He just got himself a meal-ticket to DC for the next 20 years.

In these rocky Teabagger times, a sudden United States Senator is born every minute.

Chris Coons just became the Biden Family's least favorite person. I wonder if VP Biden will try and give Carper a push out of the seat for Beau in 2012.

[J. J.]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

[Smash255]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

Rasmussen's likely voter screen tends to lead its way to some "Primary bumps"

[J. J.]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

Rasmussen's likely voter screen tends to lead its way to some "Primary bumps"

I don't think there is a "primary bump," like you find after a presidential nomination convention.

[Beet]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

Rasmussen's likely voter screen tends to lead its way to some "Primary bumps"

I don't think there is a "primary bump," like you find after a presidential nomination convention.

Creigh Deeds.

[Smash255]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

Rasmussen's likely voter screen tends to lead its way to some "Primary bumps"

I don't think there is a "primary bump," like you find after a presidential nomination convention.

I'm not saying an actual Primary bump exists, I am saying that Rasmussen has had Primary bumps in his post-primary polls.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hm... if all the undecideds break O'Donnell's way, the race is a dead heat.

The poll did leave out the other 2 candidates.

[SPC]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

As I already pointed out, this was taken after an extremely negative primary and before O'Donnell raised nearly a million dollars, let alone spent it.

[Smash255]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

As I already pointed out, this was taken after an extremely negative primary and before O'Donnell raised nearly a million dollars, let alone spent it.

Thats not going to turn around her insanely high negatives.  I mean look at these numbers among moderates....

14% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

No coming back from that, not to mention more of her bats*** craziness has come out since then.

[SPC]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

As I already pointed out, this was taken after an extremely negative primary and before O'Donnell raised nearly a million dollars, let alone spent it.

Thats not going to turn around her insanely high negatives.  I mean look at these numbers among moderates....

14% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

No coming back from that, not to mention more of her bats*** craziness has come out since then.

Independents would be a better statistic. Moderates tend to be left-leaning in actuality; polls have shown most GOP candidates losing among 'moderates' and yet winning due to their majority among Independents.

[Smash255]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive?  

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

As I already pointed out, this was taken after an extremely negative primary and before O'Donnell raised nearly a million dollars, let alone spent it.

Thats not going to turn around her insanely high negatives.  I mean look at these numbers among moderates....

14% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

No coming back from that, not to mention more of her bats*** craziness has come out since then.

Independents would be a better statistic. Moderates tend to be left-leaning in actuality; polls have shown most GOP candidates losing among 'moderates' and yet winning due to their majority among Independents.

Among Independents its
31% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

In a state Democrats have an 18 point advantage, #'s like that among Independents makes you completely unelectable.

Also as far as moderates go, in a state like Delaware you not only need to appeal to Independents if you are going to have a chance (which she doesn't), but you need to appeal to some Democrats as well, specifically those that tend to label themselves as moderates.  A -49 favorable??  No way.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Even if O'Donnell were to win independents 2-1, she'd still have to pull in about 20% of Democrats to win in Delaware. Which seems somewhat unlikely.

[Eraserhead]

This is also pre-witchgate.

I don't care about that story much at all, personally. It'll probably freak some people out though (maybe even some of her own backers).

[SPC]

Even if O'Donnell were to win independents 2-1, she'd still have to pull in about 20% of Democrats to win in Delaware. Which seems somewhat unlikely.

Is this assuming it's a high turnout election?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Even if O'Donnell were to win independents 2-1, she'd still have to pull in about 20% of Democrats to win in Delaware. Which seems somewhat unlikely.

Is this assuming it's a high turnout election?

Does it matter? Democrats make up 47% of registered voters. Even if you assume Republicans turn out in a higher proportion, it still requires a Republican to win a significant chunk of Democrats to win statewide.