MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7%

[Torie]

MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling:  Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7%

Assuming this poll is real, the Dems are facing a wipeout in Michigan.

[Beet]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

[Iosif]

You know the bottle says to call the doctor if it lasts more than 4 hours.

[Associate Justice PiT]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

     Losing 3 CDs in one state is bad news no matter how you cut it. Probably shouldn't be described as a wipeout, but the MI Democrats are in bad shape.

[Torie]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

Ya, although Dingell (you remember him?), is hounding the Dems for money because he thinks he might be in trouble.  That really would be a wipeout, because then the Dems are down to their two black seats, the Jewish seat (sort of), and the Flint seat. It can't go much lower than that.

[tmthforu94]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

     Losing 3 CDs in one state is bad news no matter how you cut it. Probably shouldn't be described as a wipeout, but the MI Democrats are in bad shape.

This. Republicans will control the Governor's mansion in 2011. Looking at the state legislature, we'll also likely control the Senate, and have a good shot at the House. Michigan will certainly be a state Obama will have to work for in 2012, and who knows? I don't think it's out of the question to say Stabenow could be in trouble.

[minionofmidas]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

     Losing 3 CDs in one state is bad news no matter how you cut it. Probably shouldn't be described as a wipeout, but the MI Democrats are in bad shape.

Yeah, that would reduce the Dems to all the seats drawn to favor them... big deal.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lossing 1, 7 and 9 would shift the state from 8-7 Dem to 10-5 Republican. A 2-1 Republican delegation in Michigan, A 15 point Republican victory in the Governors race, significant gains in the state Legislature (possibly total control, okay are you happy now? ), How is that not a wipeout for the Democrats? Shame Stabenow isn't up.


This isn't surprising, Rocky is a veteran politician, he has ran statewide before and this is the type of area where the Republicans are going to recover greatly, Oakland county suburbia.

[Beet]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

Ya, although Dingell (you remember him?), is hounding the Dems for money because he thinks he might be in trouble.  That really would be a wipeout, because then the Dems are down to their two black seats, the Jewish seat (sort of), and the Flint seat. It can't go much lower than that.

If Dingell goes down, then the Democratic party is no longer the Democratic party. It is the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln and Professor Barack Obama. The Republican Party is high minded and reformist if a touch elitist, it never goes to the South, it favors government self improvement projects such as those of Daniel Webster, it favors a National Bank, and it is the enemy of populism everywhere, but it freed the slaves and is favorable to civil rights on humanistic grounds. It is fiercely nationalistic, and would object to the division of the nation between slave states and free states, or Red states and Blue states, preferring One America, United forever, indivisible. It is particularly strong in Illinois, the Midwest, and New England. As I said, both Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln are members.

The (white) working class belongs to the T Party, but no one really knows what that is, except that it is strong in the South, heavily populist. Some say it has infiltrated the former Republican Party, which is now the Democratic Party.

[minionofmidas]

Lossing 1, 7 and 9 would shift the state from 8-7 Dem to 10-5 Republican. A 2-1 Republican delegation in Michigan, (...) How is that not a wipeout for the Democrats? Shame Stabenow isn't up.

Sigh... 10-5 R with that map does not actually mean an R lead in the popular statewide vote. (As in, not necessarily.)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Lossing 1, 7 and 9 would shift the state from 8-7 Dem to 10-5 Republican. A 2-1 Republican delegation in Michigan, (...) How is that not a wipeout for the Democrats? Shame Stabenow isn't up.

Sigh... 10-5 R with that map does not actually mean an R lead in the popular statewide vote. (As in, not necessarily.)

Nice cut and paste job.

[Torie]

Lossing 1, 7 and 9 would shift the state from 8-7 Dem to 10-5 Republican. A 2-1 Republican delegation in Michigan, (...) How is that not a wipeout for the Democrats? Shame Stabenow isn't up.

Sigh... 10-5 R with that map does not actually mean an R lead in the popular statewide vote. (As in, not necessarily.)

Yes, that is true actually. MI-9 is a couple of points more GOP than the state. I was surprised. I thought it GOP days of old had totally faded away. Apparently not quite. Still, if the Dems won the state while losing MI-9, it would not be by much in all probability. Now if Dingell goes down ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any reason to assume that Dingell might be in trouble besides the random grumblings of a very old man? The district doesn't just include the traditional Dingell electorate of working class 'ethnic' whites forever moving south, but includes the area around Ann Arbor.

[Dgov]

If the GOP wins the state congressional delegation 10-5, then it will probably have scored a majority of the seats if they were drawn anywhere near fairly.  The Democrats have like a 92% Floor in Detroit, so it skews the statewide numbers without affecting the congressional results much.

[Dan the Roman]

The Democrats won the popular vote in MI by like 15% in 2006 with a 9-6 GOP lead in seats. It is by far the best GOP gerrymander in the nation bar none. That said, it could not possibly be drawn any worse for them.

[Mr.Phips]

The Democrats won the popular vote in MI by like 15% in 2006 with a 9-6 GOP lead in seats. It is by far the best GOP gerrymander in the nation bar none. That said, it could not possibly be drawn any worse for them.

Florida is also very good for Republicans, as is Ohio.  I dont see how they could make these maps any worse for Democrats. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Has money been poured into this race from outside groups yet? How good of a candidate is Peters' opponent?

[Dan the Roman]

From what I recall this seat is a lot like PA-06 or a reverse PA-12. The slightly Democratic PVI hides the fact that it is highly Republican locally and there is little to no Democratic party. The same pretty much applies to MI-7. Hence the Democrats massively underperformed Obama in both in 2008, even without a wave, 7 and 9 would be hard to hold with a blowout at the top of the ticket.

[Linus Van Pelt]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

Ya, although Dingell (you remember him?), is hounding the Dems for money because he thinks he might be in trouble.  That really would be a wipeout, because then the Dems are down to their two black seats, the Jewish seat (sort of), and the Flint seat. It can't go much lower than that.

Slightly off-topic, but the Jews have pretty much moved into this district, except (as can be the case elsewhere) some ultra-Orthodox Russians. But basically Levin's district is a UAW area shored up by a limb over to black Southfield via LGBT/generic "hip" liberal Ferndale.

(edit: by "this" I mean MI-9, the original thread topic, just to be clear).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From what I recall this seat is a lot like PA-06 or a reverse PA-12. The slightly Democratic PVI hides the fact that it is highly Republican locally and there is little to no Democratic party. The same pretty much applies to MI-7. Hence the Democrats massively underperformed Obama in both in 2008, even without a wave, 7 and 9 would be hard to hold with a blowout at the top of the ticket.

Correct; this is a very affluent area. Overwhelmingly white collar workforce, over 40% with degrees (if I'm remembering right), high rates of managerial and professional occupations, 80% white and no serious pockets of poverty.

[Torie]

By 'wipeout' do you mean holding 5, 12, 13, 14, and 15 while losing 1, 7, and 9? Peters is a freshman elected in 2008 with 52%, this is a suburban district most likely affected by the tea party, and the PVI is only D +2; plus it's Michigan. Though the whole auto bailout probably plays well here.

Ya, although Dingell (you remember him?), is hounding the Dems for money because he thinks he might be in trouble.  That really would be a wipeout, because then the Dems are down to their two black seats, the Jewish seat (sort of), and the Flint seat. It can't go much lower than that.

Slightly off-topic, but the Jews have pretty much moved into this district, except (as can be the case elsewhere) some ultra-Orthodox Russians. But basically Levin's district is a UAW area shored up by a limb over to black Southfield via LGBT/generic "hip" liberal Ferndale.

(edit: by "this" I mean MI-9, the original thread topic, just to be clear).

Excellent points. And I forgot about the black Southfield salient, to anneal Levin's district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The pollster that did this is associated with a Republican, so "independent" is debatable.

[minionofmidas]

The Democrats have like a 92% Floor in Detroit, so it skews the statewide numbers without affecting the congressional results much.

True enough, of course.

(By the way, the 2004 results are a perfect example of that 10-5 split.)