ME-01 & 02/Critical Insights: Democrats hold huge leads

[Tender Branson]

Of the 316 respondents who live in the district that includes the counties of Cumberland, York, Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc and most of Kennebec, 53 percent said they would vote for Pingree, a Democrat from the Penobscot Bay island of North Haven. 29 percent said they would vote for Scontras, a businessman from Eliot who grew up in Kittery and played for the 1989 and 1990 Black Bears. 18 percent were undecided.

The poll had a margin of error of 4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. In other words, if the poll were repeated 100 times, in 95 cases the results would be within four percentage points of those reported.

http://www.pressherald.com/news/nationworld/1st-district_2010-09-19.html

In the MaineToday Media poll conducted last Monday, congressional district residents were asked who they would vote for if the election were held now, and 48 percent selected Michaud, compared with 28 percent for Levesque, a 35-year-old Auburn businessman. Despite Michaud's 20-point advantage, though, the remaining 24 percent of respondents either didn't know who they would vote for or declined to say.

The MaineToday Media telephone poll included 287 registered voters in the 2nd Congressional District. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points at a 95 percent degree of confidence.

http://www.pressherald.com/news/2nd-district_2010-09-19.html

[Vepres]

Huh, I thought Pingree might be vulnerable, but if this poll is correct, I would be wrong.

[nhmagic]

Cook just moved Pingree to likely democratic from safe.  PPP also polled these races and showed it much closer (with majority disapproval of Obama and both incumbents under 50% I believe).  With that said, Michaud is far more vulnerable.  Michaud is in a D+3 district for starters.  His opponent, Levesque is pretty down to earth and has some really decent campaign ads out.  LePage will be racking up decent margins in northern Maine which may produce coattails along with the national trend.  If LePage opens up a majority lead against both of his opponents, then coattails could cover the state.

Levesque would GREATLY benefit from cash.  He could win, but only if he has funding. 

Pingree's probably not going to lose.  You have to understand ME1 a bit to understand how exceedingly difficult it is for a republican to win in the district.  Pingree's power base covers the coast cities - which are the most populous and filled with gays, crunchies, and artists (thats not a stereotype, its absolutely true).  Thus the republican has to drive turnout hard in the surrounding rural counties like Berwick and Sanford, etc.  There will be depressed dem turnout, but not enough to sweep her out.

Nat GOP apparatus is stupid for not targeting CD2 though.  That's one that could be ripe for the picking with a little investment, its also one that the GOP will not have another chance to take until the next wave election.  Just sayin...

[tmthforu94]

I would take this with a grain of salt. Critical Insights also has Corbett only up by 1 in Pennsylvania.

[minionofmidas]

Cook just moved Pingree to likely democratic from safe.  PPP also polled these races and showed it much closer (with majority disapproval of Obama and both incumbents under 50% I believe).  With that said, Michaud is far more vulnerable.  Michaud is in a D+3 district for starters.  His opponent, Levesque is pretty down to earth

So is Michaud.

[minionofmidas]

I would take this with a grain of salt.

Quite so.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

287 registered voters

yawn

[Eraserhead]

Who the hell are ''Critical Insights'' anyway?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

287 registered voters

yawn

Never mind, digging into the actual poll, these are "likely" voters. Bad reporting.