State Migration Trends, 1993-2008: From 'Blue' States to 'Red' States
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  State Migration Trends, 1993-2008: From 'Blue' States to 'Red' States
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Author Topic: State Migration Trends, 1993-2008: From 'Blue' States to 'Red' States  (Read 1818 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: September 19, 2010, 01:33:25 PM »

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2010/09/state-migration.html

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Here are the ten states with the largest net migration outflow from 1993-2008:

New York
California
Illinois
New Jersey
Michigan

Ohio
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts

Louisiana
Connecticut


Here are the ten states with the largest net migration inflow from 1993-2008:

Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia
Texas

Nevada
Colorado

Tennessee
South Carolina

Washington


(Red font is for states that voted for Obama in '08 and Kerry in '04.  Purple is for states that voted for Obama in '08 and Bush in '04.  Blue is for states that voted for McCain in '08 and Bush in '04.)
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Dgov
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2010, 03:56:13 PM »

Well, then the question is are these Republicans moving to more friendly turf or Democrats chasing the jobs?
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2010, 04:02:37 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2010, 04:08:39 PM by opebo »

Well, then the question is are these Republicans moving to more friendly turf or Democrats chasing the jobs?

Obviously people only move for economic reasons, but it is interesting to note that while most of the population losing states are terrible economic disasters, not all are, and quite a few of the gaining ones are now disaster areas as well: http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/mstrtcr1.gif

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Sbane
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2010, 04:09:18 PM »

 
Well, then the question is are these Republicans moving to more friendly turf or Democrats chasing the jobs?
In regards to Texas, it is definitely normal people chasing jobs. And since they come from liberal places, they will also tend to be more liberal than Texans. And I think this will be especially true of social issues, as opposed to things like opposing a state income tax which should be popular with the new migrants as well.

Then you have a place like Arizona or South Carolina which is mostly retirees from the big states moving there. And these people tend to be quite Republican and I doubt will change the local political culture much.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2010, 04:32:11 PM »

Well, then the question is are these Republicans moving to more friendly turf or Democrats chasing the jobs?
In regards to Texas, it is definitely normal people chasing jobs. And since they come from liberal places, they will also tend to be more liberal than Texans. And I think this will be especially true of social issues, as opposed to things like opposing a state income tax which should be popular with the new migrants as well.

Then you have a place like Arizona or South Carolina which is mostly retirees from the big states moving there. And these people tend to be quite Republican and I doubt will change the local political culture much.

Folks with the courage to uproot themselves, and go far away to find work (and in a place with the most unfriendly social safety net perhaps in the nation), are not a random sample of the population. Folks are continuing to physically separate themselves by geography due to ideology, which is not healthy for this nation, but over time, it will all work out.
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2010, 03:16:46 PM »

Folks with the courage to uproot themselves, and go far away to find work (and in a place with the most unfriendly social safety net perhaps in the nation), are not a random sample of the population. Folks are continuing to physically separate themselves by geography due to ideology, which is not healthy for this nation, but over time, it will all work out.

Courage isn't really relevant, Torie.  People move in two ways - 1) they're upper or upper-middle class and they choose from a wealth of options to make an easy move to get something they want, or 2) they move out of sheer desperation, because they're a step away from homelessness and starvation.  Ideology and other personal qualities have little importance in life - class and power do.

I won't say 'individual character' is absolute fantasy, but I will say it is the most exaggerated notion out there.
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memphis
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2010, 03:48:39 PM »

With a couple of exceptions for major hurricanes and bankrupt auto industries, the move out of states are expensive to live in and the move in states are cheap. Fairly simple explanation.
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bgwah
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2010, 12:11:49 AM »

Washington has always been a fascinating anomaly in this area. Not only because we vote Democrat (we haven't elected a Republican Governor in 30 years!), but because we're not exactly known for our nice weather. Grin
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snowguy716
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2010, 01:38:58 AM »

I have to say I am proud of the unemployment map.  We are the largest U.S. state with an unemployment rate under 7%.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2010, 07:15:53 AM »

With a couple of exceptions for major hurricanes and bankrupt auto industries, the move out of states are expensive to live in and the move in states are cheap. Fairly simple explanation.

QFT.
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platypeanArchcow
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2010, 11:48:52 PM »

Folks with the courage to uproot themselves, and go far away to find work (and in a place with the most unfriendly social safety net perhaps in the nation), are not a random sample of the population.

You mean, they have less conservative personalities?

... Yeah, OK, who knows how this reflects on political ideology (I certainly don't presume to) but that was too easy.

I mean, there are four possible components to this phenomenon that I can think of.  One is that the redder states tend to have more bureaucracy and therefore are more expensive to exist in.  The second is that the bluer states make life cheaper by externalizing problems to their neighbors and into the future.  The third is that the redder states tend to value certain things (e.g. rich culture, open space, social services, catering to NIMBYs) more than they do purely efficient spending.  The fourth is that people in economically depressed states tend to vote for the party that promises more for the poor -- just look at Nevada's swing from '04 to '08.
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Smash255
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2010, 04:22:33 AM »

With a couple of exceptions for major hurricanes and bankrupt auto industries, the move out of states are expensive to live in and the move in states are cheap. Fairly simple explanation.

Agreed, and my family fits this description.   My parents as well as Aunt & Uncle on mom's side of the family all moved from Long Island to Indian Land S.C (less than 1/2 mile from the N.C border, about 5 miles from Charlotte).  An Aunt & Uncle on dad's side + their two kids, moved from Queens to Charlotte.

Cost of living played a big factor.  All of them that moved down, (not including my cousins) either recently retired or approaching retirement.
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