WI: Senate Makeup, 49-49-2
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  WI: Senate Makeup, 49-49-2
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Author Topic: WI: Senate Makeup, 49-49-2  (Read 1358 times)
Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
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« on: September 19, 2010, 07:28:39 PM »

When I was doing a new Senate prediction, I noticed that if the election were to turn out the way my prediction map went, there would be no partisan majority.  There would be forty-nine Democrats and Republicans each, and two independents.

In such a case, would the Democrats just form an easy coalition with the two independents (Adolf Lieberman and Bernie Sanders), or would Lieberman be a dick and choose to caucus with the Republicans?

Overall, wouldn't that be interesting to have a coalition government?
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2010, 07:32:25 PM »

A 50-50 Senate is a Democratic majority with Joe Biden breaking the tie.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2010, 07:34:03 PM »

At this point, I don't think it matters a whole lot if Republicans have 48 seats or 50. They're still going to be able to block any liberal legislation Obama-Reid/Schumer tries to push through. And anyways, there's a good chance Republicans will comfortably take back the Senate in 2012 anyways.
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redcommander
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2010, 07:49:36 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2010, 09:23:54 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

Very true.

Also, I'm not sure what morgan's map looks like but under certain circumstances there is actually opportunity for a semi-moderate GOP group to reform.  You've already got Collins, Snowe, Brown.  If Kirk and Ayotte are elected that's two more potential moderates.  If Murkowski wins she might be a wild card vote.  Then there are the random rogue votes like Hatch, Grahm, Lugar, and Hutchinson.  If Democrats pick the right issues they might actually be able to get things done especially if the more reasonable members of the GOP feel like they're being attacked by their incoming crazy teabagger colleagues too much.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2010, 09:28:51 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

How would you expect the Republican Party to treat her if she lost the primary in a fair election and then potentially jeopardized the seat?
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redcommander
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2010, 09:32:30 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

How would you expect the Republican Party to treat her if she lost the primary in a fair election and then potentially jeopardized the seat?

She would still win it as a Republican write-in candidate in the scenario though.
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Dallasfan65
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2010, 11:27:51 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

How would you expect the Republican Party to treat her if she lost the primary in a fair election and then potentially jeopardized the seat?

She would still win it as a Republican write-in candidate in the scenario though.

But would have risked splitting the Republican vote and giving the seat to the Democrat.
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2010, 11:15:50 AM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

Very true.

Also, I'm not sure what morgan's map looks like but under certain circumstances there is actually opportunity for a semi-moderate GOP group to reform.  You've already got Collins, Snowe, Brown.  If Kirk and Ayotte are elected that's two more potential moderates.  If Murkowski wins she might be a wild card vote.  Then there are the random rogue votes like Hatch, Grahm, Lugar, and Hutchinson.  If Democrats pick the right issues they might actually be able to get things done especially if the more reasonable members of the GOP feel like they're being attacked by their incoming crazy teabagger colleagues too much.

why would you put Ayotte in the same category? she seems like a pretty standard conservative.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2010, 11:31:27 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

Very true.

Also, I'm not sure what morgan's map looks like but under certain circumstances there is actually opportunity for a semi-moderate GOP group to reform.  You've already got Collins, Snowe, Brown.  If Kirk and Ayotte are elected that's two more potential moderates.  If Murkowski wins she might be a wild card vote.  Then there are the random rogue votes like Hatch, Grahm, Lugar, and Hutchinson.  If Democrats pick the right issues they might actually be able to get things done especially if the more reasonable members of the GOP feel like they're being attacked by their incoming crazy teabagger colleagues too much.

why would you put Ayotte in the same category? she seems like a pretty standard conservative.


I guess I hadn't really bothered to check into her positions all that much.  I just assumed that since she was an "establishment" candidate from the northeast in a competitive primary that made her the most moderate choice.  However, after checking out her wikipedia page I feel as though that assumption may have been too hasty.  Nonetheless, as a new Senator from a competitive state she may find it more prudent at times to buck her party and vote with the Democrats especially if that vote is made easier by the presence of other "rebels."

Also, as I mentioned in my original post, if moderate or even "normal" members of the GOP feel as if their new Tea Party colleagues are pulling them too far to the right and preventing progress they may decide to form a working group to negotiate with the Democrats similar to the so-called "gang of 14."  There should be a lot of Democratic senators just as willing to do this considering 22 of them are up for re-election in 2012.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2010, 12:08:09 PM »

There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.

Very true.

Also, I'm not sure what morgan's map looks like but under certain circumstances there is actually opportunity for a semi-moderate GOP group to reform.  You've already got Collins, Snowe, Brown.  If Kirk and Ayotte are elected that's two more potential moderates.  If Murkowski wins she might be a wild card vote.  Then there are the random rogue votes like Hatch, Grahm, Lugar, and Hutchinson.  If Democrats pick the right issues they might actually be able to get things done especially if the more reasonable members of the GOP feel like they're being attacked by their incoming crazy teabagger colleagues too much.

Being wildly optimistic here, maybe the group of GOP moderates could be joined by a group of Dem moderates so we had a "balance of power" block in the middle that rejected the craziness from both ends of the spectrum...?

That might just be crazy talk though.....

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tpfkaw
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2010, 12:38:24 PM »

Being wildly optimistic here, maybe the group of GOP moderates could be joined by a group of Dem moderates so we had a "balance of power" block in the middle that rejected the craziness from both ends of the spectrum...?

Vomits.
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J. J.
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2010, 06:38:56 PM »

It'd give it about a 10% chance of happening.

Politically, I'm more interested in what happens if it's 50-48-2.
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Torie
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2010, 10:31:57 PM »

One thing that occurs to me if the GOP gets 50 seats (49 will not cut it), is that the odds I think of Joe Liebermann jumping ship have gone done since the O'Donnell cf, and the apparently internal GOP jihad against moderates in primaries. Even if Joe does not want to run for re-election, it creates a hostile environment.
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