Why did Brad Ellsworth run for IN-SEN?
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  Why did Brad Ellsworth run for IN-SEN?
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Author Topic: Why did Brad Ellsworth run for IN-SEN?  (Read 613 times)
Mr.Phips
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« on: September 19, 2010, 11:04:47 PM »

One of the stupidest decisions any Democrat made this cycle was that of Brad Ellsworth to leave his likely safe House seat to be a sacrificial lamb against long time former Senator Dan Coats in the Indiana Senate race.

Keep in mind that Ellsworth's decision to run took place AFTER Coakley's stunning loss to Scott Brown in the most liberal state in the country

Keep in mind that Ellsworth ran after polls came out showing that he would be clobbered by either John Hostettler(who was never going to win the primary) or Dan Coats. 

Didnt the DCCC try to talk some sense in to Ellsworth, telling him that he could never win in this very Republican state in a Republican wave year like this?

Does anybody know why the DSCC or Ellsworth thought they would have any chance against Coats statewide in Indiana in a year like this?  Was there a chance that Ellsworth polled his House district and, sensing trouble, decided he might as well run for Senate?
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2010, 11:10:21 PM »

You assume that there is necessarily some sort of crazy calculus for someone running who's already an elected official.  Why does anyone run for any office where they are  not favored, under your reasoning? 
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2010, 11:11:29 PM »

You assume that there is necessarily some sort of crazy calculus for someone running who's already an elected official.  Why does anyone run for any office where they are  not favored, under your reasoning? 

But this wasnt the case.  This was a case where a candidate had about a 10% chance of winning. 
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2010, 11:11:37 PM »

Every year you have a candidate who has been talked up so long in the press as the next big thing that they believe it themselves. Mark Kennedy was a good example in 2006. He was heavily talked about as a star, and he made the mistake of concluding that prominence in the press was the same as  actual strength. And on paper he was pretty good. Beat a long-time incumbent in an upset, saw off strong challenges, young, could raise a lot of money. But he got clobbered by such a margin that no one looking at the result from ten years later will ever believe the race could have been competitive.

And it could have been. Had he run in 2002 he might well have won against Mondale. But he was the wrong taste for 2006.

Ellsworth is in the same position. On paper he is a great candidate. He has a rural base, a conservative record, and is a great campaigner. He looks a lot like the Democrats who won in redstates in 2006 and 2008. Unforunatly this year is not 2006 or 2008 and its taken him a longtime to figure that out.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2010, 11:13:06 PM »

Likely safe? Ho ho, not in this environment.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2010, 11:14:04 PM »

Every year you have a candidate who has been talked up so long in the press as the next big thing that they believe it themselves. Mark Kennedy was a good example in 2006. He was heavily talked about as a star, and he made the mistake of concluding that prominence in the press was the same as  actual strength. And on paper he was pretty good. Beat a long-time incumbent in an upset, saw off strong challenges, young, could raise a lot of money. But he got clobbered by such a margin that no one looking at the result from ten years later will ever believe the race could have been competitive.

And it could have been. Had he run in 2002 he might well have won against Mondale. But he was the wrong taste for 2006.

Ellsworth is in the same position. On paper he is a great candidate. He has a rural base, a conservative record, and is a great campaigner. He looks a lot like the Democrats who won in redstates in 2006 and 2008. Unforunatly this year is not 2006 or 2008 and its taken him a longtime to figure that out.



But its not like Ellsworth got into this race in early 2009 when Democrats were still in good shape, like Kennedy got into the Minnesota race in early 2005 when Republicans were still in good shape.  Ellsworth got in well after it looked like there was a wave against Democrats.  After Coakley, after NJ/VA, after Obama's approvals fell below 50%.  
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2010, 11:14:34 PM »

Likely safe? Ho ho, not in this environment.

You actually think he would have been in trouble in IN-08?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2010, 07:18:42 AM »

Likely safe? Ho ho, not in this environment.

You actually think he would have been in trouble in IN-08?

A Democratic incumbent in the midwest? Yes, I do think he would have been in trouble. Not a guaranteed loser, but it'd be a highly competitive seat.

It will be interesting to see whether or not he wins his own district in his Senate race.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2010, 08:16:48 AM »

One thing significant about Mark Kennedy running for the US Senate is Michelle Bachmann.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2010, 09:36:35 AM »

Likely safe? Ho ho, not in this environment.

You actually think he would have been in trouble in IN-08?

A Democratic incumbent in the midwest? Yes, I do think he would have been in trouble. Not a guaranteed loser, but it'd be a highly competitive seat.

It will be interesting to see whether or not he wins his own district in his Senate race.
As a resident of IN-08, Ellsworth would have been safe. While Republicans have a decent candidate here, we would have needed a great candidate to run against him, and we don't have that. Granted, Buchson would have kept Ellsworth under 60%, maybe even down to around 55%. But this race wouldn't be that competitive. Ellsworth had the cash, name recognition, and overall likeability in his favor.
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