NY-24/SRI: Rep. Arcuri (D) ahead

[Tender Branson]

48% - Michael Arcuri (D)
40% - Richard Hanna (R)

This Siena College 24th C.D. survey was conducted September 13-15, 2010 by telephone calls to 605 likely voters drawn from registered voter households. It has a margin of error of + 4.0 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/24th%20CD%202010%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD24%20Sept2010%20Crosstabs.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

Pretty close to that DCCC internal from last week.

[Torie]

This seat should fall on most lists if the GOP is going to take the House. So ...

[Eraserhead]

I think a lot of these NY races are going to be tricky for the GOP. It probably doesn't help that the guy on the top of the ballot is going to get blown out of the water.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Amazing considering how much he messed up. I wouldn't be sad to see him go anyway even if he did.

[Brittain33]

I am so looking forward to NY redistricting from a data geek point of view, no matter whether Republicans pick up one seat this fall (NY-29) or five. The various possibilities moving forward depending on incumbents are fascinating, especially since newly elected Republicans will give the legislature some toys to play with.

[Torie]

I am so looking forward to NY redistricting from a data geek point of view, no matter whether Republicans pick up one seat this fall (NY-29) or five. The various possibilities moving forward depending on incumbents are fascinating, especially since newly elected Republicans will give the legislature some toys to play with.

I assume that this fantasy assumes that the Dems hold the NY state senate, no?

[Brittain33]

I am so looking forward to NY redistricting from a data geek point of view, no matter whether Republicans pick up one seat this fall (NY-29) or five. The various possibilities moving forward depending on incumbents are fascinating, especially since newly elected Republicans will give the legislature some toys to play with.

I assume that this fantasy assumes that the Dems hold the NY state senate, no?

Yes; an incumbent-protection map isn't that interesting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This seat should fall on most lists if the GOP is going to take the House. So ...

Up till now, pretty much all we've had to go on is Arcuri's flip-flop on HCR and his surprisingly-close re-election in 2008. Still, I'm scratching my head at this one.

[You kip if you want to...]

This seat should fall on most lists if the GOP is going to take the House. So ...

Not really. You have to consider up ballot races. Cuomo, Schumer, Gillibrand... All three will most likely carry this district easily. The up-ballot races in NY really make it a struggle for the National GOP to look into gaining house seats. They could've easily taken NY-20 and NY-23, but the poor state of the NY GOP wrecked that chance.

[Associate Justice PiT]

This seat should fall on most lists if the GOP is going to take the House. So ...

Not really. You have to consider up ballot races. Cuomo, Schumer, Gillibrand... All three will most likely carry this district easily. The up-ballot races in NY really make it a struggle for the National GOP to look into gaining house seats. They could've easily taken NY-20 and NY-23, but the poor state of the NY GOP wrecked that chance.

     For that matter, Democratic turnout might be depressed due to the fact of them winning all statewide races easily. It doesn't help that they are winning so decisively more due to the weakness of their opponents rather than the strength of their own candidates.

[You kip if you want to...]

This seat should fall on most lists if the GOP is going to take the House. So ...

Not really. You have to consider up ballot races. Cuomo, Schumer, Gillibrand... All three will most likely carry this district easily. The up-ballot races in NY really make it a struggle for the National GOP to look into gaining house seats. They could've easily taken NY-20 and NY-23, but the poor state of the NY GOP wrecked that chance.

they are winning so decisively more due to the weakness of their opponents rather than the strength of their own candidates.

Only really the case for Gillibrand. Cuomo and Schumer seem to be pretty popular.

[Associate Justice PiT]

This seat should fall on most lists if the GOP is going to take the House. So ...

Not really. You have to consider up ballot races. Cuomo, Schumer, Gillibrand... All three will most likely carry this district easily. The up-ballot races in NY really make it a struggle for the National GOP to look into gaining house seats. They could've easily taken NY-20 and NY-23, but the poor state of the NY GOP wrecked that chance.

they are winning so decisively more due to the weakness of their opponents rather than the strength of their own candidates.

Only really the case for Gillibrand. Cuomo and Schumer seem to be pretty popular.

     They may be popular, but they will probably not be able to carry the coattails that their margins will suggest, due to the fundamental weakness of their opponents.

[cinyc]

Paladino will galvanize the Republican vote Upstate and Arcuri will lose.  Downstate is a different story.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh wait I didn't notice this is a junk uni poll.

[minionofmidas]

Oh wait I didn't notice this is a junk uni poll.

Siena isn't great, but it isn't exactly junk either.