Strongest swings, by county

[minionofmidas]

First instalment: New England
Top 5 Dem swings
Windham, VT 16,9
Lamoille, VT 16,8
Franklin, MA 15,6
Orange, VT 13,2
Hampshire, MA 12,8

Top Dem (or least Rep) swing per state:
Maine - Hancock 10,1
New Hampshire - Sullivan 11,8
Vermont - Windham 16,9
Massachusetts - Franklin 15,6
Rhode Island - Newport -1,4
Connecticut - New London -4,1

Top 5 Rep swings
Kent, RI 12,8
New Haven, CT 11,7
Providence, RI 10,2
Windham, CT 10,2
Litchfield, CT 8,7

Top Rep (or least Dem) swing per state:
Maine - Kennebec 4,2
New Hampshire - Hillsborough, Rockingham 1,0 each
Vermont - Franklin -2,5
Massachusetts - Plymouth 7,0
Rhode Island - Kent 12,8
Connecticut - New Haven 11,7

Two counties in Maine (Kennebec and Somerset) and two in New Hampshire swung Republican.
Five counties in Massachusetts (Dukes, Nantucket, Franklin, Hampshire, Berkshire) swung Democratic.

[minionofmidas]

Mid-Atlantic
Top 5 Dem swings
Tompkins, NY 8,9
Columbia, NY 8,1
Centre, PA 5,8
Chester, PA 5,1
Union, PA 3,9

Top Dem (or least Rep) swings by state
New York: Tompkins 8,9
New Jersey: Somerset -1,6
Pennsylvania: Centre 5,8

Top 5 Rep swings
Richmond, NY 21,5
Ocean, NJ 19,9
Rockland, NY 18,3
Kings, NY 15,6
Monmouth, NJ 14,8

Top Rep swings per state:
New York: Richmond 21,5
New Jersey: Ocean 19,9
Pennsylvania: Clinton 11,1

Four counties in New York swung Democratic: Tompkins, Columbia, Ulster and Hamilton
15 Counties in Pennsylvania swung Democratic: Berks, Centre, Chester, Crawford, Dauphin, Delaware, Elk, Forest, Lancaster, Lehigh, Monroe, Montgomery, Snyder, Sullivan, Union. Clearfield County didn't swing at all.

[minionofmidas]

"East North Central" (this are Census Bureau regions, btw - I didn't invent that crappy name)
Top 5 Democratic swings
Athens, OH 13,5
Ontonagon, MI 13,5
Monroe, IN 12,3
Ashland, WI 9,6
Price, WI 9,6

Top Democratic swings per state
Ohio: Athens 13,5
Indiana: Monroe 12,3
Illinois: DuPage 4,0
Michigan: Ontonagon 13,5
Wisconsin: Ashland, Price 9,6 each

Top 5 Republican swings
Franklin, IL 17,0
Hardin, IL 16,8
Blackford, IN 16,5
Moultrie, IL 16,2
Adams, IL 15,7
Douglas, IL 15,7

Top Republican swings per state:
Ohio: Shelby 12,4
Indiana: Blackford 16,5
Illinois: Franklin 17,0
Michigan: Lake 10,0
Wisconsin: Fond du Lac 8,5

I didn't count Ohio or Wisconsin as both states split very roughly 50-50 between counties swinging Dem and counties swinging Rep.
The following counties swung Dem in
-Indiana: Hamilton, Marion, Monroe, Ohio
-Illinois: Champaign, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Henderson, Jackson, Kane, Kendall, Lake, Winnebago
-Michigan: Alger, Allegan, Baraga, Berrien, Delta, Emmet, Gogebic, Grand Traverse, Houghton, Huron, Isabella, Kalamazoo, Kent, Menominee, Midland, Montcalm, Oceana, Ontonagon, Ottawa, Washtenaw

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll guess in North and South Dakota the biggest Dem swing in ND was Steele and in SD was Ziebach.

in Minnesota I'll guess Beltrami was the biggest swing toward Kerry and Anoka the biggest swing toward Bush.

[minionofmidas]

I'll guess in North and South Dakota the biggest Dem swing in ND was Steele and in SD was Ziebach.

in Minnesota I'll guess Beltrami was the biggest swing toward Kerry and Anoka the biggest swing toward Bush.

No more time now to complete this, but you're right about the Dakotas, wrong about MN. Far off, even.
Beltrami swung to Kerry by 7,5 - Mahnomen by 17.3
Anoka swung to Bush by 6.1 - Isanti by 8.6 (okay, that one's not that far off, but Anoka's not in the statewide top 5).

[minionofmidas]

"West North Central"
Top 5 Democratic swings
Ziebach 27,1
Bennett 25,5
Corson 20,8
Lyman 20,1
Dewey 19,7 all in South Dakota

Top Dem swings by state
Minnesota - Mahnomen 17.3
Iowa - Jefferson 14.8
Missouri - Schuyler 6.2
North Dakota - Steele 16.3
South Dakota - Ziebach 27.1
Nebraska - Thurston 10.7
Kansas - Douglas 12.3

Top 5 Rep swings
Randolph, MO 21.2
Pawnee, KS 17.0
Mississippi, MO 16.9
Moniteau, MO 16.1
Lewis, MO 15.7

Top Rep swings per state
Minnesota: Isanti 8.6
Iowa: Ida, Winnebago 8.6
Missouri: Randolph 21.2
North Dakota: Ward 5.4
South Dakota: Sully 5.8
Nebraska: Cass 11.9
Kansas: Pawnee 17.0

Too many counties swinging either way in MN and IA. Not really that many counties swinging Rep in the Dakotas - I could have drawn up a list but couldn't be bothered (all the major population centers would have been on it, btw).
Counties swinging Dem in MO: Adair, Chariton, Mercer, Oregon, Perry, Putnam, Reynolds, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Louis county, Saint Louis city, Schuyler, Scotland, Sullivan
Counties swinging Dem in NE: Cuming, Dawes, Dixon, Frontier, Keya Paha, Sheridan, Sioux, Thurston; plus Brown not swinging at all
Counties swinging Dem in KS: Douglas, Riley, Wallace.

[minionofmidas]

South Atlantic
Top 5 Dem swings
Charlottesville (city) VA 16.6
Falls Church (city) VA 13.2
Williamsburg SC 12.3
Lexington (city) VA 10.9
Arlington (city) VA 10.4

Top Dem (or least Rep) swings per state
Delaware: New Castle -1.1
Maryland: Montgomery 3.4
District of Columbia: no counties. The whole district swung Dem by 3.9
Virginia: Charlottesville (city) 16.6
West Virginia: Pendleton 4.1
North Carolina: Yancey 9.0
South Carolina: Williamsburg 11.3
Georgia: Clayton 10.3
Florida: Gadsden 6.2

Top 5 Rep swings
Wyoming WV 24.9
Haralson GA 23.7
Union FL 21.6
Polk GA 20.0
Dixie FL 19.7

Top Rep swings per state:
Delaware: Sussex 14.5
Maryland: Worcester 16.1
D.C.: see above
Virginia: Buena Vista (city) 18.1
West Virginia: Wyoming 24.9
North Carolina: Tyrrell 16.9
South Carolina: Marlboro 11.8
Georgia: Haralson 23.7
Florida: Union 21.6

Maryland counties swinging Dem: Charles, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's
West Virginia counties swinging Dem: Calhoun, Pendleton, Roane, Tyler, Wetzel; plus Mason which didn't swing at all
Georgia counties swinging Dem: Bibb, Chatham, Clarke, Clayton, DeKalb, Fulton, Henry, Richmond, Rockdale
Florida counties swinging Dem: Collier, Duval, Gadsden, Hamilton, Hendry, Jefferson, Leon
I didn't do NC and SC lists because there were too many either way. There were too many either way in Virginia as well, but I made a list anyways:
Virginia counties swinging Dem: Albemarle, Alleghany*, Brunswick, Chesterfield, Cumberland, Fairfax, Greensville, Henrico, Highland, Lancaster, Loudoun, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nelson, Northampton, Northumberland, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockbridge, Sussex
Virginia cities swinging Dem: Alexandria, Arlington, Charlottesville, Danville, Emporia, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Harrisonburg, Hopewell, Lexington, Manassas Park, Martinsville, Petersburg, Richmond, Williamsburg
*The city of Clifton Forge lost its independent status and became a part of Alleghany county between 2000 and 2004.
Comparing the Alleghany result 2004 with the Alleghany result 2000 renders a 1.0 Dem swing.
Comparing the Alleghany result 2004 with the combined Alleghany and Clifton Forge result 2000 (certainly the more sensible thing to do) renders a 5.5 Rep swing.

[minionofmidas]

"East South Central"
Top 5 Dem swings
Wolfe, KY 16.8
Humphreys, MS 12.3
Elliott, KY 11.0
Nicholas, KY 11.0
Wayne, MS 10.6

Top Dem swings per state
Kentucky: Wolfe 16.8
Tennessee: Shelby 1.1
Alabama: Dallas 0.6
Mississippi: Humphreys 12.3

Top 5 Rep swings
Lake TN 40.5
Smith TN 30.3
Walker AL 28.1
Bedford TN 25.5
DeKalb TN 25.0

Top Rep swings per state:
Kentucky: Harlan 24.6
Tennessee: Lake 40.5
Alabama: Walker 28.1
Mississippi: Lawrence 14.4

Counties swinging Dem in Kentucky: Bath, Bracken, Cumberland, Elliott, Fayette, Fleming, Green, Hancock, Jackson, Lewis, Lyon, Magoffin, Marion, Menifee, Metcalfe, Morgan, Nicholas, Owsley, Robertson, Rowan, Washington, Wolfe; plus Jefferson which didn't swing at all.
Shelby was the only county in Tennessee to swing Dem.
Dallas was the only county in Alabama to swing Dem.
Counties swinging Dem in Mississippi: Adams, Bolivar, Claiborne, Coahoma, Hinds, Holmes, Humphreys, Jasper, Lauderdale, Leflore, Noxubee, Pike, Rankin, Sunflower, Tunica, Warren, Washington, Wayne, Wilkinson

[minionofmidas]

"South West Central"
Top 5 Dem swings
Travis 19.2
Hays 11.1
Blanco 8.7
Williamson 8.7
Brewster 7.8 all TX

Top Dem (or least Rep) swings by state
Arkansas: Newton 4.6
Louisiana: Orleans 1.5
Oklahoma: Oklahoma -2.4
Texas: Travis 19.2

Top 5 Rep swings
Haskell TX 27.1
Terrell TX 26.3
Haskell OK 25.7
Harmon OK 25.3
Reeves TX 23.7

Top Rep swings per state:
Arkansas: Calhoun 13.4
Louisiana: Livingston 16.8
Oklahoma: Haskell 25.7
Texas: Haskell 27.1

Arkansas counties swinging Dem: Carroll, Conway, Madison, Newton, Perry, Pulaski, Saint Francis, Searcy, Washington, Woodruff
Texas counties swinging Dem: Armstrong, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos, Brewster, Kramer, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Fort Bend, Gillespie, Glasscock, Hansford, Harris, Hays, King, Nacogdoches, Stonewall, Travis, Washington, Williamson
Orleans was the only Louisiana parish to swing Dem.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What the hell happend in Lake County?

[minionofmidas]

Went from 59-39 Gore to 59-39 Bush.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Went from 59-39 Gore to 59-39 Bush.

Weird. Any idea why?

[minionofmidas]

Went from 59-39 Gore to 59-39 Bush.

Weird. Any idea why?

No. But I must say I find the Kentucky goings-on much weirder, mostly because they affect a much larger area. Lake is at the far Northeastern end of Tennessee, with the next couple of TN counties voting Republican in 2000...guess it just became more like its neighbours...
Speaking of wierd: unless these are incomplete data, turnout fell by quite a bit in a fair number of West Texas counties.

[minionofmidas]

I think I'll wait with the Mountains until the Colo. results have been updated. They seem to include a number of counties with incomplete data. (I've done Montana, Idaho and Wyoming, actually.)

[Engineer]

As far as Jackson County Kentucky swinging towards Kerry, it didn't.  You can't just look at the % and make a blanket statement.  In 2000, it was Bush 4,079, Gore 701.  In 2004 it was Bush 4,369, Kerry 769.  That's a pickup of Bush 290, Kerry 60.  The only thing that changed is the % which change from 85% Bush to 84% Bush.  I don't think the democrats think that a net additional 230 votes for Bush is a gain for them.  The same probably applies to other Kentucky counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as Jackson County Kentucky swinging towards Kerry, it didn't.  You can't just look at the % and make a blanket statement.  In 2000, it was Bush 4,079, Gore 701.  In 2004 it was Bush 4,369, Kerry 769.  That's a pickup of Bush 290, Kerry 60.  The only thing that changed is the % which change from 85% Bush to 84% Bush.  I don't think the democrats think that a net additional 230 votes for Bush is a gain for them.  The same probably applies to other Kentucky counties.

It is *technically* a swing, though as it's Jackson County it's more than a little academic...

What part of Kentucky are you from, BTW?

[Engineer]

Jackson County, wouldn't you know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Jackson County, wouldn't you know.

Fits with the blue avatar

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

why is that Jackson THAT Republican? That's pretty damn solid, even for Kentucky.

[iosip]

why is that Jackson THAT Republican? That's pretty damn solid, even for Kentucky.

counties like floyd used to be just as republican.

this dates back to when the republican party used to be good.

however, counties like floyd went dem in the 1930s because of labor. this hasn't happened yet in counties like jackson.

the ones like jackson should logically be dem, as the gop of today is not the same party it was in the 1800s. but old habits die hard i guess.

[jimrtex]

Speaking of wierd: unless these are incomplete data, turnout fell by quite a bit in a fair number of West Texas counties.

Which area?  They had snow in the Panhandle on election day.

[Engineer]

Actually voter registration in Jackson County is about 83% republican.  The county was carved out of four existing counties and given to followers of Andrew Jackson, if my local history is correct.  This formed the basis of its republican roots.  The reason that it still is so republican is that the people here still care about morality.  We care about family values.  We think abortion is wrong.  The views of the republican party resonants here.  The democratic party cares about creating a state where was are all dependant upon the government for everything, and people here are used to taking care of themselves.  Which is somewhat ironic, since most people here receive government subsidies in one form or another.

A lot of it has to with the location of the county.  It is not really accessible.  The nearest WalMart is about a 45 minute drive.  They are slowly improving the highways into the county.  If you want TV reception, you have to have cable or satelite.  This has kept the external influence of the media and hollywood out for some time.  We haven't been polluted with the immorality of the outside world as much.  I know some liberals think that prostitution and drugs are just great, but we get to see firsthand how they destroy peoples lives here, because nobody is a stranger.  It isn't just some nebulous person who is affected, it's your friend or neighbor.

I've lived in the city, the suburbs and now rural America.  I never knew my neighbors in the city, and only knew a few in the suburbs, but I knew more of my neighbors in the first month I was here than the previous 20+ years elsewhere.  When I talk about knowing my neighbors, I mean knowing who they are, what they do, how they live, what they think, etc.  Our lives are truly a community.

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of wierd: unless these are incomplete data, turnout fell by quite a bit in a fair number of West Texas counties.

Which area?  They had snow in the Panhandle on election day.

Loving (yeah, smallest county in the nation). Culberson. Brewster IIRC. One or two more that I forgot, presumably more where I just didn't notice. So, more like Big Bend country than Panhandle.

Re: Engineer. Yes, some of those Dem "swings" are pretty much statistical flukes. Happens in all the states. Happens for some Dem counties, too, I'd guess.

[minionofmidas]

Mountain
Top 5 Dem swings
San Miguel CO 27.7
Boulder CO 26.3*
Archuleta CO 23.3
San Juan CO 21.6
Teton WY 21.3

The Boulder result is flawed on two counts. a) Broomfield County was created out of parts of three counties including Boulder, and voted well more Republican than Boulder. (It's missing on Dave's county map, btw.) Boulder result 2000 is including parts of Broomfield. b) The number of votes cast is well down, even when taking Broomfield into effect. Alcon found some newer Boulder data elsewhere (I haven't been able to find data at the Secretary of State's website myself) which would show the swing to be some ~6 points less.

Top Dem swings by state
Montana: Missoula 14.8
Idaho: Blaine 16.5
Wyoming: Teton 21.3
Colorado: San Miguel 27.7
New Mexico: Taos 9.8
Arizona: Coconino 5.8
Utah: Grand 11.2
Nevada: Washoe 5.1

Top 5 Rep swings
Tooele UT 17.6
De Baca NM 16.0
Lea NM 15.2
Pinal AZ 14.0
Rich UT 13.7

Top Rep swings per state:
Montana: Big Horn 12.3
Idaho: Lincoln 10.3
Wyoming: Sweetwater 8.7
Colorado: Crowley 11.1
New Mexico: De Baca 16.0
Arizona: Pinal 14.0
Utah: Tooele 17.6
Nevada: Esmeralda 11.9

Montana counties that swung Republican: Big Horn, Blaine, Broadwater, Cascade, Deer Lodge, Fallon, Garfield, Musselshell, Richland, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Stillwater, Yellowstone
Idaho counties that swung Republican (27 of the 44 counties in the state; it looked at first as if this would turn out to be the smaller list...it didn't): Bannock, Bingham, Boise, Bonneville, Butte, Camas, Canyon, Caribou, Cassia, Clark, Elmore, Franklin, Fremont, Gem, Gooding, Jefferson, Jerome, Kootenai, Lincoln, Madison, Minidoka, Owyhee, Payette, Power, Twin Falls, Washington; plus Bear Lake which didn't swing at all. (Look this through on an Idaho map, and you'll laugh: except for Boise's Ada and two more, all the Southern Idaho counties swung Rep. Except for Kootenai, all the Northern and Empty Center counties swung Dem.)
Wyoming counties that swung Rep: Big Horn, Campbell, Carbon, Converse, Laramie, Lincoln, Natrona, Niobrara, Platte, Sweetwater, Uinta.
I didn't do a Colorado list, but, very roughly, anywhere East of the Rockies swung Rep, anywhere in or West of the Rockies swung Dem.
New Mexico counties that swung Dem: Bernalillo, Catron, Grant, Los Alamos, Santa Fe, Socorro, Taos; plus Lincoln which didn't swing at all.
Coconino is the only Arizona county to swing Dem.
Utah counties that swung Dem: Garfield, Grand, Summit, Wayne
Nevada counties that swung Dem: Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Humboldt, Storey, Washoe, and Carson City city; plus Lander which didn't swing at all.

[minionofmidas]

Pacific
Note: Everything said here about California should be taken with 2.5 world supplies of salt. Obviously there's vast amounts of votes missing. Hope Dave updates this soon - I couldn't seem to be able to open the CA SOS' web pages, whatever the reason.

Top 5 Dem swings
Mendocino, CA 16.8
Humboldt, CA 16.2
San Juan, WA 15.9
Wallowa, OR 15.6
Okanogan, WA 14.2
Santa Cruz, CA 14.2

Top Dem (or least Rep) swings per state
Washington: San Juan 15.9
Oregon: Wallowa 15.6
California: Mendocino 16.8
Alaska: no counties. District data incomparable due to redistricting. State swung 5.7 Rep.
Hawai'i: Hawai'i -0.1

Top 5 Rep swings:
Kings CA 13.0
Honolulu HI 12.1
San Bernardino CA 11.2
Kauai HI 10.9
Kern CA 10.2

Top Rep swings per state
Washington: Adams 6.9
Oregon: Klamath 5.2
California: Kings 13.0
Alaska: see above
Hawai'i: Honolulu 12.1

Rep swinging Washington counties: Adams, Benton, Clark, Franklin, Grant, Grays Harbor, Lewis, Pend Oreille, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane, Yakima; plus Cowlitz and Pacific, neither of which swung at all.
Rep swinging Oregon counties: Clackamas, Columbia, Crook, Gilliam, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Linn, Malheur, Marions, Morrow, Polk, Tillamook, Umatilla, Yamhill
Rep swinging California counties (yeah, yeah, more than half the state I reckon): Amador, Calaveras, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Imperial, Kern, Kings, Lake, Lassen, Los Angeles, Madera, Merced, Orange, Placer, Riverside, Sacramento, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, Shasta, Solano, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tulare, Tuolumne, Ventura, Yuba