Strongest swings, by county

[Filuwaúrdjan]

why is that Jackson THAT Republican? That's pretty damn solid, even for Kentucky.

Mostly for Civil War reasons (very little support for slavery in the mountain counties all over the South) and because people take after their parents, who take after there parents etc. etc. etc.
It's like that in most areas to a certain degree.

IIRC pretty much all of South Central and Eastern Kentucky
was solidly Republican up until the New Deal, when the Eastern Coalfield went over to the Democrats.
South Central KY is more Agrarian and is very isolated and didn't switch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone else noticed something odd about the Raleigh, WV (Beckley) results?

Bush: 60.6%
Kerry: 38.8%

Raleigh is usually very, very close to the state average so this suprised me.
Interestingly, Kerry won about 600 more votes there than Gore did... but Bush added about 6000 more votes than 2000.

In addition to this, Joe Manchin won 63% statewide, compared with 57% in Raleigh, while Raleigh was the only county that Nick Joe Rahall lost (the GOP's sacrificial lamb in that race was an Evangelical minister. I think from Raleigh county though I'm not sure).

IIRC there's a Bible college or something similer in the county. Possibly more than one.

[minionofmidas]

Ohio counties swinging Dem :
Allen, AShland, Ashtabula, Athens, Carroll, Coshocton, Cuyahoga, Delaware, Erie, Fairfield, Franklin, Fulton, Geauga, Hamilton, Hocking, Huron, Knox, Lake, Lorain, Lucas, Mahoning, Medina, Monroe, Morgan, Noble, Perry, Portage, Stark, Summit, Vinton, Washington, Wayne, Wood
Wisconsin counties swinging Rep (just under half):
Adams, Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Crawford, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Grant, Green, Green Lake, Iowa, Jefferson, Huneau, Kewaunee, Langlade, Lincoln, Manitowoc, Marathon, Marquette, Monroe, Oconto, Portage, Racine, Richland, Rock, Saint Croix, Sauk, Shawano, Walworth, Washington, Waukesha, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago; plus Sheboygan which didn't swing at all.
Minnesota counties swinging Dem  (43 both plus one that didn't swing at all - Goodhue. California, btw, is also split exactly half-and-half)
Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Blue Earth, Carlton, Chippewa, Clay, Clearwater, Cook, Cottonwood, Douglas, Freeborn, Grant, Hennepin, Houston, Hubbard, Itasca, Jackson, Kittson, Koochiching, Lake, Mahnomen, Mashall, Morrison, Mower, Nicollet, Norman, Olmsted, Otter tail, Pennington, Polk, Pope, Ramsey, Red Lake, Saint Louis, Stearns, Stevens, Swift, Todd, Traverse, Wabasha, Wadena, Winona
Iowa counties swinging Dem: Allamakee, Appanoose, Chickasaw, Clarke, Clayton, Decatur, Fayette, Hamilton, Howard, Iowa, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Johnson, Linn, Marshall, Monona, Poweshiek, Story, Tama, Union, Wayne, Webster, Winneshiek, Woodbury
North Dakota counties swinging Rep:
Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Divide, Golden Valley, LaMoure, Morton, Renville, Sioux, Slope, Stark, Stutsman, Ward, Williams; plus Cass which didn't swing at all
South Dakota counties swinging Rep:
Beadle, Bookings, Brown, Clark, Codington, Davison*,
Deuel, Douglas, Edmunds, Gregory, Hamlin, Hutchison, Jerauld, Jones, Kingsbury, Lake, Lincoln, McCook, Minnehaha, Moody, Shannon, Stanley, Sully ,Turner, Yankton; plus Aurora which didn't swing at all
*or is that Dawson? Tough when you can't read your own handwriting
Colorado counties swinging Rep:
Adams, Baca, Cent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Douglas, Elbert, El Paso, Fremont, Huerfano, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Las Animas, Lincoln, Logan, Mesa, Montrose, Morgan, Otero, Phillips, Prowers, Pueblo, Rio Blanco, Sedgwick, Teller, Washington, Weld, Yuma
NC counties swinging Dem:
Alamance, Buncombe, Craven, Durham, Forsyth, Graha, Guilford, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, Mecklenburg, Mitchell, Nash, Orange, Pitt, Polk, Stokes, Wake, Watauga, Wislon, Yancey; plus Catawba and Vance which didn't swing at all
SC counties swinging Dem:
Aiken, Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Charleston, Clarendon, Florence, Greenville, Lee, Orangeburg, Richland, Saluda, Sumter, Williamsburg

Now that I have all the states up, somebody make some maps.
Or gimme a link to some easily manipulable maps.

[jimrtex]

Which area?  They had snow in the Panhandle on election day.

Loving (yeah, smallest county in the nation). Culberson. Brewster IIRC. One or two more that I forgot, presumably more where I just didn't notice. So, more like Big Bend country than Panhandle.

That would be the Trans-Pecos (except for Loving County which would be Permian Basin.

The 2000 election in Loving County was weird.  The 2000 census had a population of 67, while the turnout in the election was 156.  I have read an article that local elections are fiercely contested in the county.  There may have been high "absentee" voting in 2000 that maybe drew some attention.

Votes cast and registered voters for the biennial elections (President or Governor): 1992: 96/116; 1994: 99/125; 1996: 77/132; 1998: 108/158;  2000: 156/211; 2002: 63/152; 2004 primaries: 52/95; 2004: 81/108.  It looks like they cleaned up their voter rolls.

Census estimates for Culberson County show a pretty sharp drop in population (10% since 2000) after holding fairly steady for 30 years.  This might be due to some oil and gas going out of production, or maybe a gypsum processing plant or similar.  The only other industry is services for Interstate I-10.  Van Horn is the largest town for about 100 miles either way.

Brewster County shows an increase in turnout (which matches a steady population growth).  Sul Ross University is in Alpine, which is in a more mountainous area which makes the weather more tolerable.

[minionofmidas]

Census estimates for Culberson County show a pretty sharp drop in population (10% since 2000) after holding fairly steady for 30 years.  This might be due to some oil and gas going out of production, or maybe a gypsum processing plant or similar.  The only other industry is services for Interstate I-10.  Van Horn is the largest town for about 100 miles either way.

Culberson was in the news over here for a population increase actually...some German artist colony. These guys bought up the ghost town site of Lobo, due south of Van Horn.
I don't think it had been a ghost town for long though. (Plus of course, Germans can't vote in America.)

[jimrtex]

Mountain
Top 5 Dem swings
Boulder CO 26.3*

The Boulder result is flawed on two counts. a) Broomfield County was created out of parts of three counties including Boulder, and voted well more Republican than Boulder. (It's missing on Dave's county map, btw.) Boulder result 2000 is including parts of Broomfield. b) The number of votes cast is well down, even when taking Broomfield into effect. Alcon found some newer Boulder data elsewhere (I haven't been able to find data at the Secretary of State's website myself) which would show the swing to be some ~6 points less.

Parts of 4 counties (Boulder, Adams, Jefferson, and Weld).

The Boulder part was about 22/291 (7.5%) of the 2000 Boulder county population.  The Adams part was 16/363 of the Adams county population.  The Jefferson part was 2/527 of the Jefferson county population. 

If I were going to adjust the figures 2000 figures, I would assume a Broomfield result similar to 2004 (based on Jefferson County 2000 to 2004, and then take about 1/2 from Boulder and 1/2 from Adams).   So say take 6,000 from Bush-2000, 5,000 from Gore-2000, and say 500 from Nader-2000.  This would give an adjusted Boulder result for 2000 of Gore 64.9k, Bush 45.8k, Nader 16.0k, or Gore 51.2%, Bush 36.1%, and Nader 12.7%.  So overall about 1% more Democrat with Broomfield excluded (2% if you include Nader).

The Boulder County clerk shows about 157,000 votes with a 66.3% to 32.4% margin victory.  They apparently had problems scanning their ballots.  The above does not include provisionals which are expected to be posted on the 16th.  Provisionals might be kind of high because there was a Secretary of State ruling - I think it had something to do with dumped registrations, so you could claim that you had registered and the fact that the the University of Colorado is in Boulder, which results in a high voter turnover.

[jimrtex]

Culberson was in the news over here for a population increase actually...some German artist colony. These guys bought up the ghost town site of Lobo, due south of Van Horn.
I don't think it had been a ghost town for long though. (Plus of course, Germans can't vote in America.)

Lobo, TX - Handbook of Texas

There are also apparently a petroglyph site in the area, from an earlier artist colonly.  By the way, until the early 20th century, permanent resident aliens could vote in Texas, many of whom were German.

On a road map, it appears that there was a bit of agricultural development in the area which occured in the mid-20th century.  Culberson County was the last county to produce a bale of cotton.  It kind of sounds like it is more abandoned buildings than anything particularly ghostly, unless the railroad station still exists.  US 90 is the traditional route from San Antonio and Houston to El Paso and the west coast, following the Southern Pacific RR, and avoiding the Hill Country.  A lot of I-10 west of San Antonio was a totally new road through the Hill Country.

Map of Culberson County - Lobo is near the southern tip on the highway.

[jimrtex]

Anyone else noticed something odd about the Raleigh, WV (Beckley) results?

President Bush campaigned at the Raleigh County Armory in July. 

[nclib]

Does anyone know the top Democratic swings in counties where Nader was irrelevant?

[Rob]

Does anyone know the top Democratic swings in counties where Nader was irrelevant?

One big one is Corson, South Dakota- it went from 44 percent Democratic in 2000, to 56 percent Democratic in 2004.

And Nader didn't get a single vote there.

[minionofmidas]

Does anyone know the top Democratic swings in counties where Nader was irrelevant?

So basically you're looking for the strongest drop in the Rep vote?

[nclib]

Yeah, that would be a good way to measure it.

[minionofmidas]

Northeast
Top 5:
Lamoille, VT 4.6 (that is, Rep percentage declined by 4.6 points)
Orange, VT 3.6
Grafton, NH 3.5
Sullivan, NH 3.3
Windham, VT 3.0

Strongest by state:
Maine: Lincoln 1.3
New Hampshire: Grafton 3.5
Vermont: Lamoille 4.6
Massachusetts: Berkshire, Franklin tied at .9
New York: Tompkins .3
Pennsylvania: Chester 1.3
No counties in Rhode Island, Connecticut or New Jersey swung against the Republicans.

[minionofmidas]

Midwest
Strongest by state
Ohio: Franklin 2.7
Indiana: Monroe 2.4
Illinois: DuPage 0.8
Michigan: Ontonagon 5.6
Wisconsin: Price 3.0
Minnesota: Mahnomen 5.3
Iowa: Jasper 1.7
Missouri: Adair, Mercer (tied) 1.5
North Dakota: Steele 5.8
South Dakota: Ziebach 13.2
Nebraska: Keya Paha 1.8
Kansas: Douglas 1.8

Top 5:
Ziebach SD 13.2
Bennett SD 12.7
Lyman SD 10.1
Dewey SD 9.4
Jackson SD 9.0
However, this table is highly misleading. Bush did not lose support in any of these counties.
Some info to prove my point...

Ziebach County - Eastern portion of Cheyenne River Indian Reservation. 72.3% Native American.
Republican vote increased from 384 to 447. Democratic vote increased from 314 to 641. Other vote increased from 23 to 28.
Population aged 18 and over in 2000 - 1515.

Bennett County - located between Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, Rosebud Indian Reservation, and the Nebraska line. Includes much Off-Reservation Trust Land. 52.1% Native American.
Republican vote increased from 712 to 833. Democratic vote increased from 377 to 759. Other vote increased from 27 to 38.
Population aged 18 and over in 2000 - 2249.

Lyman County - Includes Lower Brule Indian Reservation. 33.3% Native American.
Republican vote increased from 875 to 1029. Democratic vote increased from 482 to 872 (or 812. Can't read my own handwriting.) Other vote increased from 29 to 39.
Population aged 18 and over in 2000 - 2666.

Dewey County - Western portion of Cheyenne River Indian Reservation. 74.2% Native American.
Republican vote increased from 761 to 921. Democratic vote increased from 880 to 1606. Other vote decreased from 40 to 37.
Population aged 18 and over in 2000 - 3747.

Jackson County - Southern portion of county is northeastern portion of Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. 47.8% Native American
Republican vote increased from 687 to 726. Democratic vote increased from 319 to 508. Other vote increased from 34 to 37.
Population aged 18 and over in 2000 - 1812.

[minionofmidas]

South
Top 5
Wolfe KY 8.3
Humphreys MS 7.0
Bath KY 5.4
Williamsburg SC 5.4
Elliott KY 5.2

by state
MD: Prince George's 1.0
VA: Falls Church (city) 4.1
WV: Pendleton 1.4
NC: Yancey 4.3
SC: Williamsburg 5.4
GA: Clayton 3.5
FL: Gadsden 2.6
KY: Wolde 8.3
TN: Shelby 0.2
MS: Humphreys 7.0
AR: Newton 0.9
LA: Orleans 0.0 (Rep share of vote declined from 21.744% to 21.738% percent. In rounded figures, it stayed at 21.7%)
TX: Travis 4.9
DE, DC, AL, OK - no county showed decline in Rep vote.

[minionofmidas]

West
Top 5, or 6
Teton WY 7.2
Wallowa OR 7.1
Adams ID 6.1
Ouray CO 5.8
Chouteau MT 5.2
San Miguel CO 5.2

by state
MT Chouteau 5.2
ID Adams 6.1
WY Teton 7.2
CO Ouray 5.8
NM Los Alamos 3.1
UT Garfield 1.8
NV Washoe 0.7
WA Okanogan 4.4
OR Wallowa 7.1
CA Alpine 3.6
Alaska not applicable; Hawaii none except that the nonmilitary overseas vote (which for state law reasons isn't distributed among the counties) is interesting in this respect; Arizona none - Coconino County Republicans increased by 0.0 points (42.957% 2000 to 42.996% 2004)

[nclib]

bump

Lewis (or anyone else), can you compile the strongest swings for counties with over 100,000 votes?

Thanks.

[bullmoose88]

Could someone tell me the swing in Bucks County PA?

Dave's map indicates a slight swing to the GOP...but how much?

[nclib]

Could someone tell me the swing in Bucks County PA?

Dave's map indicates a slight swing to the GOP...but how much?

1.4%

[minionofmidas]

Top 5 swings by county, counties over 100,000 valid votes in 2004...
First installment, Northeast Region

To Reps -
Richmond NY 20.6
Ocean NJ 19.6
Rockland NY 17.9
Monmouth NJ 14.7
Kings NY 14.3

To Dems -
Cumberland ME 7.1
Chester PA 5.1
York ME 3.7
Delaware PA 3.1
Lancaster PA 2.8

[minionofmidas]

Midwest

To Rep:
Greene MO 7.4
Sedgwick KS 6.5
Madison IL 6.0
Anoka MN 5.8
Brown WI 5.2

To Dem:
Franklin OH 8.3
Ramsey MN 6.6
Hamilton OH 5.8
Saint Louis MN 5.7
Hennepin MN 5.6

[minionofmidas]

South

Part I, DE-MD-DC-VA

To Rep:
Hidalgo TX 12.6
Pasco FL 10.3
Nueces TX 9.6
Harford MD 9.5
Polk FL 8.8

To Dem:
Travis TX 19.2
Fairfax VA 8.7
Williamson TX 8.7
Durham NC 8.3
Buncombe NC 8.2

[minionofmidas]

West

to Rep:
Weber UT 12.2
Honolulu HI 12.1
Riverside CA 10.3
San Bernardino CA 10.2
Kern CA 9.5

to Dem:
Boulder CO 20.2 (beware, border change)
Santa Cruz CA 13.9
Marin CA 11.8
Denver CO 9.2
Multnomah OR 9.2

[minionofmidas]

Nationally...

to Reps
Richmond NY 20.6
Ocean NJ 19.6
Rockland NY 17.9
Monmouth NJ 14.7
Kings NY 14.3

to Dems
Boulder CO 20.2
Travis TX 19.7
Santa Cruz CA 13.9
Marin CA 11.8
Denver CO & Multnomah OR 9.2

As to the effects of the creation of Broomfield County, I'll defer to Jim on that. Probably enough to move Austin to the top of the pile, but Boulder should remain ahead of Santa Cruz.

[memphis]

Went from 59-39 Gore to 59-39 Bush.

This is incorrect. Lake County went from 64-35 Gore to 56-44 Kerry.