WA-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Adam Smith (D) is in trouble
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  WA-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Adam Smith (D) is in trouble
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Author Topic: WA-09/SurveyUSA: Rep. Adam Smith (D) is in trouble  (Read 3709 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 20, 2010, 09:55:25 AM »

49% - Adam Smith (D)
46% - Dick Muri (R)

That's within the poll's 4.1% margin of error.  This race has not been on the national radar screen, but the district did go Republican in the mid 90s, electing Randy Tate.

Noteworthy that Smith has raised more than $600,000 according to the latest federal campaign reports, while Muri has reported raising just about $94,000.

http://www.king5.com/community/blogs/politiking/KING-5-poll-Smith-may-face-stiff-challenge-from-Muri-in-9th-district-103183534.html
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2010, 09:58:00 AM »

46% is about where I expected Muri to end up.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2010, 10:32:05 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2010, 10:34:24 AM by brittain33 »

I'll say one thing, this election is either going to make SUSA's reputation in Washington State for detecting a massive Republican wave or it's going to leave egg on their faces. They're internally consistent for state polls here, it seems like.

The next poll will have Jay Inslee up 5% and below 50%, I expect.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2010, 10:46:33 AM »

At least he's leading.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2010, 12:54:38 PM »

This one doesn't surprise me in the least.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2010, 02:53:25 PM »

Apparently, I have some family in that district I need to call.
Although, I doubt Smith will lose.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2010, 05:33:30 PM »

Primary result was 51-45 for Smith, with a Green winning the remainder. Color me skeptical about this one, though; Smith may not win by a huge margin, but his opponent is rather a joke, and I'd be surprised if Rossi has any coattails here.
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JoeyJoeJoe
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2010, 07:03:40 PM »

This does surprise me.  Somebody remembered that Adam Smith was a Representative?
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Meeker
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2010, 07:05:40 PM »

My suspicion is that this race will end up with Smith winning 55-45 fwiw
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2010, 07:49:20 PM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2010, 07:56:52 PM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

     Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2010, 08:03:42 PM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2010, 08:06:35 PM »

So if it was 51-45 with a Green taking 4 points, Smith with 55% sounds right.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2010, 08:15:52 PM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.

     Point taken, though it has now been over a month since the primary. It is not inconceivable that the numbers have moved since then.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2010, 06:36:22 AM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.

     Point taken, though it has now been over a month since the primary. It is not inconceivable that the numbers have moved since then.

ut while Murray's numbers have moved in the opposite direction?
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« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2010, 07:18:12 AM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.

     Point taken, though it has now been over a month since the primary. It is not inconceivable that the numbers have moved since then.

ut while Murray's numbers have moved in the opposite direction?

Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2010, 08:49:55 AM »
« Edited: September 21, 2010, 08:55:22 AM by brittain33 »

Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.

Well, if Murray was able to move her numbers not only against where she was but also against a countervailing shift in the state or national mood over the time, effectively doubling her movement, then Democrats who have money in the bank may have higher hopes than previously thought.
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Meeker
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2010, 09:57:41 AM »

What to trust, an actual election result or a sketchy SUSA poll? Hmmmmmmm....

Seeing as how they are virtually in agreement, the choice seems rather unnecessary.
Considering that Smith had a 6 point lead with a Green (probably) playing spoiler, and a combined vote total of Republican candidates, it's safe to say that Smith is probably up by more. The general electorate will probably be more Democratic than the primary electorate as well.

     Point taken, though it has now been over a month since the primary. It is not inconceivable that the numbers have moved since then.

ut while Murray's numbers have moved in the opposite direction?

Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.

Smith has been on the air for several months now fwiw. He's not just running on autopilot.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2010, 10:53:05 AM »

Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.

Well, if Murray was able to move her numbers not only against where she was but also against a countervailing shift in the state or national mood over the time, effectively doubling her movement, then Democrats who have money in the bank may have higher hopes than previously thought.

IMHO, this has always been the case, though it was oft overlooked because of all the surrounding pessimism. Boxer will spend her way to victory, too. Feingold is in trouble, because his principles preclude him from doing so.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2010, 11:14:02 AM »

Murray's numbers likely moved because of something Murray did, not because of the national mood. The numbers here are what they are probably because this race has not been localized—it's low enough attention that you're just getting a default set of nationalized numbers. And that's dangerous for Smith.

Well, if Murray was able to move her numbers not only against where she was but also against a countervailing shift in the state or national mood over the time, effectively doubling her movement, then Democrats who have money in the bank may have higher hopes than previously thought.

IMHO, this has always been the case, though it was oft overlooked because of all the surrounding pessimism. Boxer will spend her way to victory, too. Feingold is in trouble, because his principles preclude him from doing so.
You mean, because he's not in some rich donor's pocket and thus has not the kind of money?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2010, 11:35:17 AM »

You mean, because he's not in some rich donor's pocket and thus has not the kind of money?

I'm not sure where I had gotten the idea that Feingold wasn't accepting PAC money, but that's clearly not the case now -- he's raised a couple million from them this year and isn't hurting for cash. Nevermind.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2010, 07:12:42 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2010, 01:21:30 AM by Ogre Mage »

Not sure what to make of this poll.  WA-09 is a modestly Democratic district and Smith is a reasonably entrenched incumbent.  However, there are a lot of working-class folks here who have likely been hit hard by The Great Recession.  It is likely Smith will still win, but probably by a closer margin than he is used to.

With regards to the Senate races, it strikes me there are two key differences between CA/WA and WI.  CA/WA have been solidly Democratic states in Presidential elections for the last few decades.  WI is a swing state which has usually been closely contested.  In a statewide federal race I think this matters.

The other is that the challengers in CA and WA have serious vulnerabilities.  Dino Rossi is a two-time statewide loser with a history of sleazy business dealings.  Carly Fiorina had a controversial (to put it politely) tenure at HP from which she profited handsomely even though many others at the company did not and she has taken far-right positions ill-suited to the California electorate.

Ron Johnson doesn't appear to have this baggage.  There is no political or legislative record to analyze.  For those of us outside the state, he seems rather like a blank slate with a lot of money.  But in this environment that may be enough.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2010, 11:41:01 AM »

Smith out with a new poll showing a large lead:

Democrat Adam Smith: 54%
Republican Dick Muri: 35%

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 400 interviews district-wide with likely general election voters on September 18-20, 2010. The margin of error for overall results is ±4.9%.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/files/2010/09/Smith-poll-memo.pdf
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2010, 01:41:21 PM »

For those of us outside the state, he seems rather like a blank slate with a lot of money.
An empty suit with a lot of money, is more like it.
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bgwah
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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2010, 05:47:31 PM »

Hopefully this isn't bumped in November if I'm wrong, but I'm really not that worried about this seat.
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