Most depressing election news yet.

[Eraserhead]

Beet, I'm ready to whine with you about this one.

http://twitter.com/markos/status/25030549094

Even as Boxer and Muarry seemingly begin to pull away, we are losing probably the best person in the US Senate.

[Hash]

Horrible. Awful.

[??????????]

Horrible. Awful.

To the Democrats, sure. But to me it's the sweet smell of blood in the water.

[DrScholl]

It will come down to turn out, but Feingold will survive. It will be a 50-48 win for him like it 1998. It's too early for the Republicans to declare this one in the bag.

[Brittain33]

Obama's going to be campaigning in Wisconsin. We'll see if that helps.

[Eraserhead]

It will come down to turn out, but Feingold will survive. It will be a 50-48 win for him like it 1998. It's too early for the Republicans to declare this one in the bag.

Did he ever trail by a significant amount in the polling prior to that race being decided?

[Brittain33]

It will come down to turn out, but Feingold will survive. It will be a 50-48 win for him like it 1998. It's too early for the Republicans to declare this one in the bag.

The macro environment is so much worse than 1998. Wisconsin always comes through for the Democrats better than it polls, but Feingold needs to be closer than this for him to have a reasonable chance to win.

[Eraserhead]

Well, I'll give you guys a bit of a good news with the bad.

PPP has Boxer clearly pushing in front in her race (as I alluded to in my first post here):

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/boxer-leads-by-8.html

Someone else can enter this in the poll section. Boxer is good but I'd keep Feingold over her any day of the week.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Obama's going to be campaigning in Wisconsin. We'll see if that helps.

My guess is that it'll hurt more than it helps.

[Brittain33]

Obama's going to be campaigning in Wisconsin. We'll see if that helps.

My guess is that it'll hurt more than it helps.

I disagree, given that Republicans are solidly behind his opponent and the major problem Feingold has is getting young Democratic voters, who still give Obama high favorables and were drawn to him in '08, to come out to the polls. This is one of the best things Obama can do.

[DrScholl]

Did he ever trail by a significant amount in the polling prior to that race being decided?

That I'm not sure about.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I disagree, given that Republicans are solidly behind his opponent and the major problem Feingold has is getting young Democratic voters, who still give Obama high favorables and were drawn to him in '08, to come out to the polls. This is one of the best things Obama can do.

Republicans were always going to be against Feingold no matter the candidate, just as they were in 2004 and 1998. The trick to this election is that (1) Republicans have somehow lucked into their best candidate against Feingold ever, (2) Republicans are enthused, (3) Independents are voting with them, and (4) Democrats are not excited at all.

Feingold can't change his opponent, so he'll need to instead change (2), (3), and (4). Obama showing up will clearly make problem (2) worse, not better. Indies hate the president in Wisconsin, so I'm not sure it does much for (3).

And as for problem (4), the problem is not Feingold, whom younger voters should actually have something to be excited about. The issue is Obama, who has largely disappointed them. The secret to winning the November elections is not an Obama tour, it's a fundamental change in the way Obama does business. And I'm not holding my breath.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only silver lining to this cloud is that Feingold could return in 2012 if the now very old Kohl retires.

[Eraserhead]

jmfcst responded to this thread in his protest thread. lol.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Feingold loses I should boycott Wisconsin. Even though you have to drive to Wisconsin to buy alcohol on Sundays if you live in Minnesota.

[Verily]

It will come down to turn out, but Feingold will survive. It will be a 50-48 win for him like it 1998. It's too early for the Republicans to declare this one in the bag.

Did he ever trail by a significant amount in the polling prior to that race being decided?

He actually trailed by over 20 points at one point in 1998, but I think that was in August.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'd gladly trade West Virginia and Delaware in order to keep Feingold.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It would be a shame if the only sort-of-good Senator lost. That's how life goes, though.

[Eraserhead]

It will come down to turn out, but Feingold will survive. It will be a 50-48 win for him like it 1998. It's too early for the Republicans to declare this one in the bag.

Did he ever trail by a significant amount in the polling prior to that race being decided?

He actually trailed by over 20 points at one point in 1998, but I think that was in August.

No kidding? Interesting.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This is extremely bad news but I'm not losing hope.  Feingold has been in tough situations before, and the man is an excellent fighter.  As the weeks go by, we'll see if he has it in him to make it out of another situation.

Though, we still have 3 - 6 debates coming up, let's wait and see for those results first.

[The Vorlon]

Boxer is an arrogant "rhymes with rich" AND has the IQ of a basketball.

Murray is just as stupid but marginally less annoying.

Feingold, by contrast, is a smart, decent, honest man.

If Boxer and Murray win, while Feingold loses, the democracy is broken and government has been turned over to the hands of a raging mob.

[Sam Spade]

Boxer is an arrogant "rhymes with rich" AND has the IQ of a basketball.

Murray is just as stupid but marginally less annoying.

Feingold, by contrast, is a smart, decent, honest man.

If Boxer and Murray win, while Feingold loses, the democracy is broken and government has been turned over to the hands of a raging mob.

I tend to agree, but you should read Al's post (in the polling section) on why Feingold would fall before the other two.

If you would have asked me in January 2009 which three Dem incumbents in 2010 would, based on their history, have the most problems should the environment turn against them, it would always have been 1) Lincoln, 2) Feingold, 3) Reid (in that order).  Lincoln and Feingold, in particular, had always run weakly and Reid had always had problems against good opponents.

Of course, it turns out Dorgan was the most likely, but I think that's a candidate-specific thing (i.e. he would have run again and won, narrowly, were Hoeven not involved).  Oh, and Dodd was dead meat if he ran again, but much like Reid that is current unpopularity, not historical analysis.

[Vepres]

Feingold is one of the most overrated politicians by libertarians.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Feingold is one of the most overrated politicians by libertarians.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Associate Justice PiT]

Feingold is one of the most overrated politicians by libertarians.

     When you take into account how irredeemably terrible the vast majority of the Senate is, it's easy to see why libertarians salivate over Feingold.