WV: Public Policy Polling: Raese overtakes Mr. Popular

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: West Virginia Senator (Special) by Public Policy Polling on 2010-09-20

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[You kip if you want to...]

WTF West Virginia?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Ugh. Rass still has him ahead by 7 though. This one will be a 51-49 type of election..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not a sure bet anymore with a GOP wave like what's taking place.

[You kip if you want to...]

Manchin has 59/32 approvals. Are WVans that hackish that they'd vote for Raese?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

So basically, WV just really hates Obama.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Whoa. I thought I'd see this eventually, but not so soon, and not from PPP first.

[The Vorlon]

Manchin has 59/32 approvals. Are WVans that hackish that they'd vote for Raese?

Sometimes a guy just gets drowned by a wave.

Lincoln Chaffee lost his senate seat in an anti-bush wave when he had (according to the exits polls) a 61% job approval rating.

I also have a suspicion that some of the PPP polls are getting juiced as a dailykos tool to try to wind up the Dem base and help narrow the enthusiasm gap.

PPP saying the Dem would be +6 if it were 2008 is consistent with Rasmussen's +7 (Rassy tends to model the last election pretty heavy in to the next election which explains the similarity)

All that being said...

One poll, is, well, one poll.

Lets see a few more before we make any assumptions.

As an aside..

This traditional vote division is exacerbated by a 10-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap. John McCain won the state by 13 points in 2008, but West Virginians who plan to vote this year report casting ballots for McCain by 23 points over President Obama—

This is a truly bad question to use in a poll.... this type of question just simply does not work, when an incumbent is hugely popular, far more people "voted" for him/her than actually voted for them when you do a poll, and the opposite is also true.

In 1972 Richard Nixon got 60% of the vote, yet in 1974 post Watergate polling, apparently he "lost" the election something like 48-52 when they asked people who they voted for....  I suspect we have much of the same thing happening here.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Manchin has 59/32 approvals. Are WVans that hackish that they'd vote for Raese?

Sometimes a guy just gets drowned by a wave.

Lincoln Chaffee lost his senate seat in an anti-bush wave when he had (according to the exits polls) a 61% job approval rating.

I also have a suspicion that some of the PPP polls are getting juiced as a dailykos tool to try to wind up the Dem base and help narrow the enthusiasm gap.

PPP saying the Dem would be +6 if it were 2008 is consistent with Rasmussen's +7 (Rassy tends to model the last election pretty heavy in to the next election which explains the similarity)

This isn't a poll for Daily Kos though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Those 59% approvals are much lower than we've seen for Manchin as of late. If they're truly accurate, well ... you know why Raese hopped into the lead in this poll.

If the erosion continues—and it might, now that he's running for national office under the banner of an unpopular president—Raese has a legitimate shot at this. Which might be surprising, even to Raese.

[DrScholl]

So who is right? Rasmussen or PPP? It's interesting that both of the have put out different results, Rasmussen even moved it from toss-up to Lean Dem. 10% undecideds can go either way here, since there is no incumbent. I still say Manchin wins.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surprising, given Rasmussen. Hopefully we'll get more polls from more companies now; it's been hard to work out what's actually going on, as all indications point in different directions (Manchin is popular, but Obama isn't, Raese is a poor candidate, but is absolutely loaded...) and basing things off the work of just one outfit isn't that helpful.

PPP's record in WV is a little confusing; in 2008 they got the Presidential election bang-on (McCain +13; same as reality), did well in the Gubernatorial election (Manchin +42; reality was +44) but did very badly in the Senate election (Rockefeller +18; reality was +27). Take your pick.

[Tender Branson]

Has there ever been a poll question that asked WV folks:

Would you prefer Gov. Manchin to stay as governor or prefer that he´s running for Senate ?

Maybe folks are just happy with him as Governor and send him a signal that a federal office is not what they want.

Anyway, what happens if Manchin is defeated ? Is he still governor or does there have to be a special election to replace him ?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Those 59% approvals are much lower than we've seen for Manchin as of late. If they're truly accurate, well ... you know why Raese hopped into the lead in this poll.

PPP always shows lower approval ratings than almost anybody else for Senators and Governors.

[tpfkaw]

Manchin has 59/32 approvals. Are WVans that hackish that they'd vote for Raese?

WVans were hackish enough to vote for nobody but Democrats until this year.  In fact you could say this is a symptom of their de-hacking.

[The Vorlon]

Has there ever been a poll question that asked WV folks:

Would you prefer Gov. Manchin to stay as governor or prefer that he´s running for Senate ?

Maybe folks are just happy with him as Governor and send him a signal that a federal office is not what they want.

Anyway, what happens if Manchin is defeated ? Is he still governor or does there have to be a special election to replace him ?

The GOP has actually, quietly, been doing that exact same thing, as posted here....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=123851.0

[Eraserhead]

What a disturbing day for polls.

[minionofmidas]

Wow.

[Brittain33]

Fine, torie, you were right. Pbblt.

[Free Palestine]

They're finally learning that Democrats are liberal.  Maybe in another few years they'll have television.

[Brittain33]

They're finally learning that Democrats are liberal. 

Manchin isn't liberal on issues that WV voters don't like.

[The Vorlon]

So who is right? Rasmussen or PPP? It's interesting that both of the have put out different results, Rasmussen even moved it from toss-up to Lean Dem. 10% undecideds can go either way here, since there is no incumbent. I still say Manchin wins.

If I were to bet, I'd bet on Rasmussen.

In a likely voter screen most pollsters try to gauge two criteria - one is past voting behavior, the other is how "enthusiastic" a vote is about this election, depending on the pollster the mix of the two criteria varies.

PPP's turnout model is more based upon "enthusiasm" (ie a 2008 scenario) while Rasmussen's is more based upon past behavior, and I think the GOP base has (atypically) energized early this year, hence the exaggerated GOP results in PPP's polls of West Virginia, and also (IMHO) Wisconsin.

The White House, The Dems, the parts of the media friendly to the Dems/hostile to the GOP will all be trying to whip up fear the next 6 weeks, and to the extent they are effective, I suspect the enthusiasm gap will close a bit.

[J. J.]

I'm not really sold on PPP.  WI and WV seem really off.

(Yes, I know that they are Democratic pollsters.)

[tmthforu94]

Wow, this is certainly surprising. Republicans are really going to spin this. I'd rather win this seat than Delaware. We would have only held Delaware for 4 years. But here, we have the potential of keeping it for a long time.

[opebo]

They're finally learning that Democrats are liberal.  Maybe in another few years they'll have television.

I think perhaps you're the one who is out of date, Morgan.