WV: Public Policy Polling: Raese overtakes Mr. Popular

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Surprising, given Rasmussen. Hopefully we'll get more polls from more companies now; it's been hard to work out what's actually going on, as all indications point in different directions (Manchin is popular, but Obama isn't, Raese is a poor candidate, but is absolutely loaded...) and basing things off the work of just one outfit isn't that helpful.

PPP's record in WV is a little confusing; in 2008 they got the Presidential election bang-on (McCain +13; same as reality), did well in the Gubernatorial election (Manchin +42; reality was +44) but did very badly in the Senate election (Rockefeller +18; reality was +27). Take your pick.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think everyone here is thinking this but it's worth writing down anyway... if Manchin actually were to lose, it's likely that these elections will be every bit as bad for the Democrats as the more fevered speculation suggests, as his only serious problem is the national picture. The same goes for a heavy Feingold defeat in Wisconsin.