The 7th Party System

[CatoMinor]

January 19th, 2004
News anchors across America began to read the results of the Iowa Caucus. Just a few months prior General and former Sec of State Colin Powell announced that he would challenge President Bush for the Republican nomination. Though no one was surprised by Bush's victory, everyone was surprised by Powell's relatively strong performance. Many pundits agreed that a large chunk of Powell's support came from people upset that Bush didn't take him seriously enough to campaign and refused to debate. Up until this point the only Republican holding major office to endorse Powell was RI senator Lincoln Chaffee, but there were reports that Susan Collins was planning to announce her endorsement of Powell the following day.

Results:
Bush - 71%
Powell - 29%

Red - Powell, Blue - Bush

Recent polls for the democrats showed that Kerry and Edwards had risen to be the front runners. Kerry was able to turn the surge in the polls to a narrow victory. Dean was able to come in a strong 2nd with Edwards closely following.

Results:
Kerry - 35%
Dean - 32%
Edwards - 29%
others - 4%

Kerry - red, Dean - yellow, Edwards - green

[feeblepizza]

This looks to be a promising timeline. Please post more.

[tmthforu94]

Very interesting.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This looks to be a promising timeline. Please post more.

[CatoMinor]

In the days following the IA contest all eyes were fixed on NH. In a debate between Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Lieberman, and Clark, the issue of Dean's record on gun control was brought up where he responded:
Well, unlike some others on this stage I actually follow through on my oath to defend the Constitution which clearly protects gun rights.

Polling following the debate showed:
Who won the debate?
Dean - 37%
Kerry - 37%
Edwards - 11%
Clark - 10%
tie - 5%

Following a poll released showing NH as being virtually tied between Powell and Bush, the president made several campaign stops in NH in the week following the primary. Both Senators Gregg ans Sununu endorsed president Bush, Powell only had a hand full of mayoral endorsements from around the state.

Results:
Bush - 50%
Powell - 49%

Bush - Blue, Powell - red

Dem results:
Dean - 37%
Kerry - 32%
Clark - 11%
Edwards - 11%
Lieberman - 8%
others - 1%


Immediately following the primary Lieberman withdrew from the race. Powell said in speech:
"We may have lost tonight, but we have proven the momentum is on our side. this contest is not over, not by a long shot."

[Goldwater]

Very interesting.

[Dr. Cynic]

Very interesting.

[CatoMinor]

After the close call in NH, Bush began to campaign more actively, having rallies in Jefferson City and Charleston. Powell began releasing ad's telling the GOP voters that he wasn't anti-war, he was anti-sending troops to countries that posed no threat. Shortly after the NH primary Powell was endorsed by both the ME senators, Mike Castle, and Arlen Spector. The Democratic race had turned into a four way fight with Kerry and Dean leading & Clark and Edwards hanging on in the distance.

February 3 2004.

Delaware results GOP:
Powell - 51%
Bush - 49%


Delaware results dems:
Dean - 39%
Kerry - 31%
Edwards 19%
Clark - 11%


South Carolina Results GOP:
Bush - 69%
Powell -31%


South Carolina results dems:
Edwards - 42%
Kerry - 28%
Clark - 20%
Dean-10%


Missouri results GOP:
Bush - 67%
Powell - 33%


Missouri results dems:
Kerry - 41%
Edwards - 22%
Dean - 21%
Clark - 12%


Oklahoma Results GOP:
Bush - 83%
Powell - 17%


Oklahoma Results dem:
Clark - 29%
Edwards - 28%
Kerry - 27%
Dean - 26%


North Dakota results GOP:
Powell 50%
Bush - 49%


North Dakota results dems:
Dean - 41%
Clark 29%
Edwards - 15%
Kerry - 15%


Arizona results GOP:
Powell - 52%
Bush - 48%


Arizona results dem:
Kerry - 40%
Dean - 22%
Clark - 17%
Edwards - 11%


New Mexico results GOP:
Bush - 62%
Powell - 38%


New Mexico results dem:
Kerry - 49%
Dean - 31%
Clark - 10%
Edwards - 10%

[CatoMinor]

Results so far:
Dems

Kerry - Red, Dean - Yellow, Edwards - green, Clark - blue

GOP

Bush - blue, Powell - red

[Yelnoc]

Very interesting.  Every incumbent president that has faced a primary challenge.  Will Bush be able to buck that trend or will Bush even make it out of the primaries?  We shall see....

Awesome work, by the way.

[feeblepizza]

I think Powell will lose and join the Sore Loser Party by running for President in a third party with some anti-war wingnut as his VP. Bush will still win, in a landslide.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I am very intrigued.

[Barnes]

I am very intrigued.

[CatoMinor]

After the massive upsets in Arizona, North Dakota, and Delaware Powell saw a surge in polls.
PPP:
Who do you plan to vote for in the GOP Primaries?
Bush - 56%
Powell - 33%
undecided - 11%

Who do you plan to vote for in the Democratic Primaries?Kerry - 33%
Dean - 31%
Edwards - 17%
Clark - 14%
undecided - 4%

February 6th,
After finaly agreeing to 1 debate, Bush and Powell met in Boston at a debate hosted by CNN. Bush argued that the country is much safer than it was before he took office, which Powell counterd by saying the US would never be safe at the rate we are making enemies. 

February 7th

Michigan resultd GOP:
Bush -57%
Powell - 43%


Michigan results Dems:
Kerry - 46%
Dean - 36%
Edwards - 10%
Clark - 6%


Washington results GOP:
Powell - 53%
Bush - 47%


Washington results dems:
Dean 47%
Kerry - 38%
Edwards - 9%
Clark - 6%


That night after poor showings in Michigan and Washington, Gen. Clark withdrew from the race and endorsed Governor Dean.
At a rally in Seattle, Powell promised to continue the fight until there was a winner. Bush promised he would step up his campaign efforts.

The next night came the Maine Caucus, poll's showed it tied up since Powell received the endorsement of both Collins and Snowe.

Maine results GOP:
Powell - 52%
Bush - 47%


Maine results Dems:
Dean - 51%
Kerry 43%
Edwards - 5%
Clark - 1%

[Dr. Cynic]

Very interesting so far. I'm digging it.

Btw, what do you use to make the individual county-by-county maps?

[CatoMinor]

Dems:

Kerry - red, Dean yellow, Edwards - green, Clark - blue

GOP

Bush - blue, Powell - red

[CatoMinor]

Very interesting so far. I'm digging it.

Btw, what do you use to make the individual county-by-county maps?

I copy the county maps in the results pages, then edit them on paint.

[tpfkaw]

Interesting - continue.

[CatoMinor]

February 10th,
Two nights after the defeat in Maine, Bush seemed to bounce back crushing Powell in Tennessee and  Virginia. Kerry also performed well, narrowly blocking Edwards from a win in TN, and winning comfortably in VA.

Virginia Results GOP:
Bush - 63%
Powell - 37%


Virginia Results Dems:
Kerry - 44%
Edwards - 29%
Dean - 27%


Tennessee Results GOP:
Bush - 71%
Powell - 29%


Tennessee Results Dems:
Kerry - 39%
Edwards - 38%
Dean - 23%

[Niemeyerite]

I like it

[CatoMinor]

Over the next couple weeks President Bush's re-election campaign began flooding the airwaves with ads focusing on the Administrations strong leadership during time of war. Powell's campaign began to focus on certain states such as Nevada, Hawaii, and the North East.

February 14,

Washington DC results GOP:
Bush - 50%
Powell - 49%

Washington DC Results Dems:
Kerry - 52%
Dean - 26%
Edwards - 22%

Nevada results GOP:
Bush - 51%
Powell - 49%


Nevada results Dems:
Dean - 38%
Kerry - 35%
Edwards - 27%


3 nights later came the Wisconsin Primary

Wisconsin results GOP:
Bush - 54%
Powell - 46%


Wisconsin results dems:
Dean - 36%
Edwards - 35%
Kerry - 29%

[feeblepizza]

Bush will win.

[CatoMinor]

February 24,

Utah Results GOP:
Bush - 87%
Powell - 13%


Utah results Dems:
Kerry - 53%
Dean - 27%
Edwards - 20%


Hawaii Results GOP:
Powell - 54%
Bush - 46%


Hawaii Results Dems:
Dean - 52%
Kerry - 30%
Edwards - 18%

[Niemeyerite]

Bush will win.

[tpfkaw]

Why hasn't Edwards dropped out yet?