Mike Kelly has a slight advantage over incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper among all registered adults, 42% to 38%, with about one in five (20%) adults still undecided.
Kelly’s advantage is slightly larger among those more likely to vote, 44% to 38%, with 18% undecided. The survey finds that Kelly’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.
Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the district among all registered adults, 34% to 28%, and among likely voters, 37% to 30%.
Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato among registered adults, 41% to 28%, and among likely voters, 43% to 27%.
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 14-19, 2010. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle.
The data included in this release represent the responses of 482 registered adult residents of the 3rd Congressional District in Pennsylvania, including 222 Democrats, 216 Republicans, 35 registered as Independent/Other, and 9 who refused to identify party.
The sample error for registered adults is +/- 4.5 percentage points and is slightly higher for registered Democrats (+/- 6.6 percentage points) and registered Republicans (+/- 6.7 percentage points). The subsample of likely voters (n=418) has a sample error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2010/F&M_PA3_Poll_921.pdf