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| | | |-+  CA-03/PPP/DailyKos: Rep. Lungren (R) leads Bera (D) by just 8 points
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Author Topic: CA-03/PPP/DailyKos: Rep. Lungren (R) leads Bera (D) by just 8 points  (Read 1202 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 22, 2010, 01:52:49 pm »
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46% Dan Lungren (R)
38% Ami Bera (D)

617 Likely Voters, Sept. 18-19

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/9/18/CA-3/4/W8kea
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2010, 04:59:18 pm »
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Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2010, 05:11:53 pm »
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Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2010, 09:16:16 pm »
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Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points!  

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

Fair enough. I am not sure what is going on in FL-25 however.
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2010, 09:49:07 pm »
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Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

Fair enough. I am not sure what is going on in FL-25 however.

Pretty good Dem candidate and absolutely horrible GOP one. In a neutral year that seat probably would be long gone, the Republican running might be comparable to O'Donnell in how bad he is.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2010, 09:52:21 pm by Salvia with Eraserhead »Logged

Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2010, 10:09:00 pm »
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Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

Fair enough. I am not sure what is going on in FL-25 however.

Pretty good Dem candidate and absolutely horrible GOP one. In a neutral year that seat probably would be long gone, the Republican running might be comparable to O'Donnell in how bad he is.

I wonder.  Polling never seems to work in that area of the world.
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cannonia
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2010, 04:50:49 am »
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Wow, Lungren has high unfavorables.  If the race really is this close, I hope that is the cause.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2010, 11:20:48 am »
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Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2010, 12:11:42 pm »
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Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.
In other words, the poll is possibly still too favorable to Lungren?

Fool's Gold, of course. But still Grin.
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Torie
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2010, 09:23:53 pm »
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Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.
In other words, the poll is possibly still too favorable to Lungren?

Fool's Gold, of course. But still Grin.

The swing against Boxer will be biggest in the Central Valley I strongly suspect. It will be smallest in the Bay area, and the hippie/drug/counterculture belt (Mendacino, Humbolt and Santa Cruz Counties).
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cannonia
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2010, 02:05:22 am »
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Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.
In other words, the poll is possibly still too favorable to Lungren?

Fool's Gold, of course. But still Grin.

The swing against Boxer will be biggest in the Central Valley I strongly suspect. It will be smallest in the Bay area, and the hippie/drug/counterculture belt (Mendacino, Humbolt and Santa Cruz Counties).

I'd guess the smallest swing (vs. 2004) would be in the southern San Joaquin Valley, since Bill Jones had personal popularity and some of his largest numbers there.  I'm going to guess that there will be a larger swing in the Inland Empire and all along the coast.  That being said, I am expecting a large swing compared to 2008 in the Central Valley.
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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2010, 02:11:09 am »
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Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.

Boxer lost this district by 6 points while winning statewide by 20 points in 2004. Obama barely carried this district while winning by a 24 point margin statewide. These numbers point to about a 5 point Boxer victory, which is what I suspect will happen.
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