CA-03/PPP/DailyKos: Rep. Lungren (R) leads Bera (D) by just 8 points

[Tender Branson]

46% Dan Lungren (R)
38% Ami Bera (D)

617 Likely Voters, Sept. 18-19

http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/9/18/CA-3/4/W8kea

[Torie]

Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

[Lief]

Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

[Torie]

Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points!  

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

Fair enough. I am not sure what is going on in FL-25 however.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

Fair enough. I am not sure what is going on in FL-25 however.

Pretty good Dem candidate and absolutely horrible GOP one. In a neutral year that seat probably would be long gone, the Republican running might be comparable to O'Donnell in how bad he is.

[Sam Spade]

Great news for the Dems. In perhaps the 4th most vulnerable GOP seat in the nation, the Dems are only down 8 points! 

More like 6th or 7th.

1. DE-AL
2. LA-02
3. HI-01
4. IL-10
5. FL-25

Fair enough. I am not sure what is going on in FL-25 however.

Pretty good Dem candidate and absolutely horrible GOP one. In a neutral year that seat probably would be long gone, the Republican running might be comparable to O'Donnell in how bad he is.

I wonder.  Polling never seems to work in that area of the world.

[cannonia]

Wow, Lungren has high unfavorables.  If the race really is this close, I hope that is the cause.

[Dgov]

Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.

[Vasall des Midas]

Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.

In other words, the poll is possibly still too favorable to Lungren?

Fool's Gold, of course. But still .

[Torie]

Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.

In other words, the poll is possibly still too favorable to Lungren?

Fool's Gold, of course. But still .

The swing against Boxer will be biggest in the Central Valley I strongly suspect. It will be smallest in the Bay area, and the hippie/drug/counterculture belt (Mendacino, Humbolt and Santa Cruz Counties).

[cannonia]

Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.

In other words, the poll is possibly still too favorable to Lungren?

Fool's Gold, of course. But still .

The swing against Boxer will be biggest in the Central Valley I strongly suspect. It will be smallest in the Bay area, and the hippie/drug/counterculture belt (Mendacino, Humbolt and Santa Cruz Counties).

I'd guess the smallest swing (vs. 2004) would be in the southern San Joaquin Valley, since Bill Jones had personal popularity and some of his largest numbers there.  I'm going to guess that there will be a larger swing in the Inland Empire and all along the coast.  That being said, I am expecting a large swing compared to 2008 in the Central Valley.

[Senator Sbane]

Interesting, Fiornia is winning the district by 14 points, which is roughly the margin she needs in this district to win statewide.

Boxer lost this district by 6 points while winning statewide by 20 points in 2004. Obama barely carried this district while winning by a 24 point margin statewide. These numbers point to about a 5 point Boxer victory, which is what I suspect will happen.