KY-03/Braun Research: Yarmuth (D) leads by 23, Conway (D) by 12

[Tender Branson]

US House:

53% John Yarmuth (D-Inc.)
30% Todd Lally (R)
  5% Michael Hansen (I)
  1% Ed Martin (L)

US Senate:

51% Jack Conway (D)
39% Rand Paul (R)

"This is one district where Conway will need to find a way to run up the score (Bruce Lunsford won Jefferson County by over 11% against Mitch McConnell in 2008)."

...

The findings reported in this release are from 500 telephone surveys conducted by the opinion research firm, Braun Research of Princeton NJ. The survey was sponsored by Commonwealth Network. Braun Research completed 500 interviews with Jefferson-Lexington County Kentucky residents’ adults age 18 and over. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The interviews were conducted September 20, 2010 to September 21, 210. The margin of error for is ± 4.38 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

http://politics.mycn2.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Louisville-3rd-Dist-Sept-21.pdf

[Tender Branson]

So, Conway is on track to lose by between 6 and 16 points.

Both Obama and Lunsford lost won JeffCo by 12 points, but Lunsford lost the state by 6 and Obama by 16.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Neither Obama or Lunsford lost Jefferson County.

[Tender Branson]

Neither Obama or Lunsford lost Jefferson County.

Sry, wanted to write "win" ...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So there's about a 20-point gap between these guys and SUSA.

[minionofmidas]

So there's about a 20-point gap between these guys and SUSA.

Conway is leading by 12 in Louisville. On a uniform swing, that means no swing compared to McConnell-Lunsford.

[Tender Branson]

So there's about a 20-point gap between these guys and SUSA.

Conway is leading by 12 in Louisville. On a uniform swing, that means no swing compared to McConnell-Lunsford.

He probably means this:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d85d333e-4e4e-4c93-8c5d-05ae52235a4c

[minionofmidas]

Oh. Right.