Where will the unemployment rate be in June 2012?

[Mr.Phips]

Anyone want to take a guess?

[opebo]

8.5%.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Unadjusted, U-3, around 8.9%

[??????????]

12% give or take.

[Tender Branson]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

Wow!

Do you really think BLS will be able to kick that many people out of the labor force (that's the way they've been keeping the U-3 down for the past year and a half)?

[Ban my account ffs!]

12% give or take.

In Florida, maybe.

I'd say 7.5-8%

6-6.5% here.

[Mr.Phips]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

What is going to generate the 7%-8% GDP growth for the next year in a half needed to create that many jobs?

[Ban my account ffs!]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

What is going to generate the 7%-8% GDP growth for the next year in a half needed to create that many jobs?

Does this also take into account that people born in 1946 and 1947 will become eligible for Medicare and SS and begin to retire in 2011 and 2012?

Remember the number of births in the U.S. exploded from 2.9 million in 1945 to 3.8 million in 1947.

[Mr.Phips]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

What is going to generate the 7%-8% GDP growth for the next year in a half needed to create that many jobs?

Does this also take into account that people born in 1946 and 1947 will become eligible for Medicare and SS and begin to retire in 2011 and 2012?

Remember the number of births in the U.S. exploded from 2.9 million in 1945 to 3.8 million in 1947.

A lot of these people are unable to retire because they lost most of their savings in the stock market crash between 2007 and 2008.   I know many of them.

[J. J.]

9.7%

[phk]

A much more interesting question...

What does the unemployment rate have to be in 2012 for Obama to get re-elected?

[Mr.Phips]

A much more interesting question...

What does the unemployment rate have to be in 2012 for Obama to get re-elected?

Im going to say it has to be below 8%.  Reagan did it with 7.4%, which is the highest in modern history, but he was also credited with bringing down inflation from 14% down to around 4%.  It wasnt until unemployment fell below 8% in January 1984 when Reagan started to pull ahead of Mondale(and Glenn and Hart). 

[Beet]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

What is going to generate the 7%-8% GDP growth for the next year in a half needed to create that many jobs?

Does this also take into account that people born in 1946 and 1947 will become eligible for Medicare and SS and begin to retire in 2011 and 2012?

Remember the number of births in the U.S. exploded from 2.9 million in 1945 to 3.8 million in 1947.

A lot of these people are unable to retire because they lost most of their savings in the stock market crash between 2007 and 2008.   I know many of them.

That's strange. If you invested in 2004 with the Dow at 10,000 and held onto it until now, you would have lost nothing. Really only two years' gains (summer '05 to summer '07) have been lost.

[Mr.Phips]

Around 6.5-7.5% I guess.

What is going to generate the 7%-8% GDP growth for the next year in a half needed to create that many jobs?

Does this also take into account that people born in 1946 and 1947 will become eligible for Medicare and SS and begin to retire in 2011 and 2012?

Remember the number of births in the U.S. exploded from 2.9 million in 1945 to 3.8 million in 1947.

A lot of these people are unable to retire because they lost most of their savings in the stock market crash between 2007 and 2008.   I know many of them.

That's strange. If you invested in 2004 with the Dow at 10,000 and held onto it until now, you would have lost nothing. Really only two years' gains (summer '05 to summer '07) have been lost.

Many of these people just sold off everything in 2008 at a loss, thinking the Dow would fall to 3,000. 

[opebo]

A lot of these people are unable to retire because they lost most of their savings in the stock market crash between 2007 and 2008.   I know many of them.

Well at least that's gratifying.  I love seeing these old right-wingers discover that in fact Social Security and the Government Teat is the best thing in their insignificant little lives.

[feeblepizza]

Close to 12%

[Ban my account ffs!]

A lot of these people are unable to retire because they lost most of their savings in the stock market crash between 2007 and 2008.   I know many of them.

Well at least that's gratifying.  I love seeing these old right-wingers discover that in fact Social Security and the Government Teat is the best thing in their insignificant little lives.

I feel that way in a sense.. but their reaction is, of course, to move further to the right.

[TeePee4Prez]

U-3: 8.8%
U-6 (real): 15.4%

[Skill and Chance]

Either over 12% or under 7%.  I guess I'll be an optimist and pick 6.7%.

[Mr.Phips]

Either over 12% or under 7%.  I guess I'll be an optimist and pick 6.7%.

Wow, that's some incredible job growth.  That would mean 375,000 jobs will be created on average each month for the next 20 months. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

8.5%-8.8%

Since Flyers brought it up
U6: 14.7%-15.2%

Unemployement will not go much below 7.5% in the next four or five years and won't reach normal levels (below 6%) in the next seven years. Hopefully we realize that if we want to 1) remain the number one economy for more then 20 to 25 years and 2) Want to restore the mid 20th Century Standard of living, that we need to make the decisions to make it so, which are the following: fix the long term budget problems, get our education system working, and encourage advancements in science and technology across the economy, but especially in Energy. Neither party has really addressed this and no worthless Crist loving third party will either. Only the GOP is wanting to do whats necessary in education but they aren't prioritizing it.

[opebo]

...Hopefully we realize that if we want to 1) remain the number one economy for more then 20 to 25 years and 2) Want to restore the mid 20th Century Standard of living, that we need to make the decisions to make it so, which are the following: fix the long term budget problems, get our education system working, and encourage advancements in science and technology across the economy, but especially in Energy.

Talk about re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  My friend, the problem is inequality and lack of demand, not the minor details you mention.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

...Hopefully we realize that if we want to 1) remain the number one economy for more then 20 to 25 years and 2) Want to restore the mid 20th Century Standard of living, that we need to make the decisions to make it so, which are the following: fix the long term budget problems, get our education system working, and encourage advancements in science and technology across the economy, but especially in Energy.

Talk about re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  My friend, the problem is inequality and lack of demand, not the minor details you mention.

The US is not the Titantic

Spain, Japan or Russia would be the Titantic.

The US has a large population growing at a fairly stable and sustainable rate (2.1), it has a great spirit of entrepreneurialism, a wealth of resources, a declining but still mentionable lead in technology, and lets not forget a strong tradition of rule of law and domestic stability. All that is a key advantage that amont other nations you can find atleast one or more that is missing. The US is certainly not a sinking ship, it has been caught in a hurricane and its up to decisions of the crew as to whether we make it back to port or not.

It will take more then a transfer of wealth to solve our problem. We have to create wealth and that means you need to increase both supply and demand simultaneously. We do need to make sure we have actual wage growth this time and reducing over supply of unskilled labor (by educating them) acheives that.

If you seriously think that the weath of 1945-1973 was created by transfer payments alone, then you need a serious reality check. There were massive gov't expenditures on defense, a large surge in business activity and foreign trade, the building of the road culture around the highways, and the expansion of the suburbs which drove that growth. The Gov't played a role in kick starting it and then pushing it along at various points (GI Bill, the Highways Act etc). Numerous commericial, industrial, consumer, and gov't spending trends combined to create that period.